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Post by JangoB on Dec 12, 2019 8:41:30 GMT
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 12, 2019 10:45:45 GMT
I'm tempted to predict him because usually what I don't want to get nominated ends up being nominated, lol, but for now I think he'll make DGA, probably BAFTA, but ultimately be snubbed by AMPAS.
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Post by JangoB on Dec 12, 2019 11:21:45 GMT
So far I'm going with Out too but it's damn close. Baumbach can't be written off that easily and I also have this weird feeling that Waititi may sneak in  But Phillips is certainly a close threat! |
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Post by TerryMontana on Dec 12, 2019 14:03:45 GMT
I guess Scorsese, QT, Bong and Mendes are certain to be in atm. So it will be between Todd and Noah. My prediction is Baumbach will make it, meaning Philips will be out.
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Post by stephen on Dec 12, 2019 17:33:07 GMT
I think he's fifth or maybe even fourth right now. His film's by far the most financially lucrative of the major contenders, his style evokes a fellow nominee and hearkens back to an old-school brand of filmmaking (regardless of whether or not you think he succeeded at it), he has a Best Actor frontrunner in his film, and PGA is gonna go nuts for his film. I'd say Bong, Scorsese and Tarantino are ahead of him, with Mendes still having to make landfall.
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 12, 2019 17:36:50 GMT
In, I think.
He just fits the profile now, with Farrelly and Mckay. They like it when these yuk-yuk comedy directors get serious or go prestige. Joker is clearly better liked by industry more than critics, and the thing made a billion dollars. And he's already been rubber stamped as a prestige item by winning Venice. Sure he could miss, but betting against him seems odd to me. Though judging by the poll so far, most here seem to be doing just that.
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Post by JangoB on Dec 12, 2019 20:41:39 GMT
In, I think. He just fits the profile now, with Farrelly and Mckay. They like it when these yuk-yuk comedy directors get serious or go prestige. Joker is clearly better liked by industry more than critics, and the thing made a billion dollars. And he's already been rubber stamped as a prestige item by winning Venice. Sure he could miss, but betting against him seems odd to me. Though judging by the poll so far, most here seem to be doing just that. To be fair, Farrelly wasn't nominated (thankfully) |
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Post by bob-coppola on Dec 12, 2019 21:00:26 GMT
I think he'll follow the Farrelly route and not get the nod when all's said and done. There's usually a spot at the Oscar for smaller, artsy, quieter movies (Lonergan, Pawlikowski, Abrahamson, Cuaron, Gerwig, Payne...), so I believe that'll be Baumbach this year - a line-up with Scorsese, Tarantino, Mendes and Bong d'Or would be great, but I don't think it'll be 5/5 big movies, and Phillips is the most vulnerable imo.
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