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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 12, 2019 0:38:15 GMT
With Parasite as a possible upset?
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Post by stephen on Dec 12, 2019 0:45:50 GMT
If we go by stats, it has the fewest cons in its column. But I personally think Parasite has more individual passion to its name, and it feels different than other foreign language films that have been Top 5 contenders in that I'm hearing and seeing people who aren't big art-house cinephiles raving about it on social media. Feels like it might be able to do what Roma couldn't, especially if it can secure an acting nod.
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 12, 2019 0:49:59 GMT
1-The Irishman
2-OUATIH
3-Parasite
OUATIH hasn't won a critics award or anything - zero for the film - and I just don't see it losing everything except SAG Ensemble/GG comedy on its way to a win - just don't see it - I think its ending lets down the film for me and lets it down for a win too - although it ends somewhat upbeat (not the right word) but the ending seems slight compared to Scorsese's.....The Irishman is a downer but I think it evokes the pattern of other great downers - Unforgiven and NCFOM and wins.
As for Parasite, a South Korean film isn't winning BP ......it's a threat for director moreso.........
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Post by DeepArcher on Dec 12, 2019 1:15:19 GMT
Jesus, now you lunatics think Parasite might actually *win* BP?  Yeah, sure, and Todd Philips's comic book movie will win the Golden Lion ... oh ... oh I get it now. |
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 12, 2019 1:46:55 GMT
OUATIH hasn't won a critics award or anything - zero for the film - and I just don't see it losing everything except SAG Ensemble/GG comedy on its way to a win - just don't see it Critics awards don't really matter anywhere near as much as the Globes or the industry awards. And the most important awards for Best Picture are PGA, DGA, and BAFTA anyway (discounting the Globes because OUaTiH and The Irishman are in different categories and won't compete there). I haven't checked myself, but I read that OUaTiH is performing better at the guilds so far than The Irishman. If that keeps up, it could also win PGA/DGA, and that could be the end of the race. Right now, I think OUaTiH and The Irishman are pretty even... maybe OUaTiH slightly ahead. |
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Post by JangoB on Dec 12, 2019 8:36:06 GMT
OUATIH hasn't won a critics award or anything - zero for the film - and I just don't see it losing everything except SAG Ensemble/GG comedy on its way to a win - just don't see it Critics awards don't really matter anywhere near as much as the Globes or the industry awards. And the most important awards for Best Picture are PGA, DGA, and BAFTA anyway (discounting the Globes because OUaTiH and The Irishman are in different categories and won't compete there). I haven't checked myself, but I read that OUaTiH is performing better at the guilds so far than The Irishman. If that keeps up, it could also win PGA/DGA, and that could be the end of the race. Right now, I think OUaTiH and The Irishman are pretty even... maybe OUaTiH slightly ahead. It is but only by a small margin - OUATIH has been nominated by literally every guild so far while The Irishman was omitted by the Costume Designers. Although the situation will definitely even out when it comes to WGA where Tarantino is simply ineligible. |
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Post by TerryMontana on Dec 12, 2019 9:03:09 GMT
For me it was always the runner up and remains that way.
At some point I thought Marriage Story (which I liked much more than OUATIH) could be a threat for the Irishman but not really...
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 12, 2019 10:44:05 GMT
With Parasite as a possible upset? I think The Irishman could also possibly upset, but at this point, I think that OUATIH just wins pretty much everything. Globe C/M: OUATIH Globe D: The Irishman Globe FLF: Parasite Director and screenplay are where it gets tricky. Maybe Scorsese wins Director and Tarantino wins screenplay because then you can honor both men, or Tarantino wins both, or maybe the Globes go with Parasite for one of the two categories. SAG Ensemble: OUATIH - I guess it's possible there could be an upset, but it's about industry people both in television and movies even has a child performance in it, so I don't see this losing. DGA: Tarantino vs. Scorsese vs. Bong - It could be Scorsese or Bong, but I think Tarantino and OUATIH will continue their momentum. PGA: OUATIH - Unfortunately anything on Netflix is at a disadvantage still here. I guess Parasite could win here, but it seems doubtful with how big OUATIH was and starring two of the biggest stars in the world and about the industry with Al Pacino even playing a producer. BAFTA: ? - Probably OUATIH if it wins everything else, but I guess they could go with The Irishman, 1917, Joker, or something else here since it's been awhile since AMPAS and BAFTA have matched. |
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Yeah, sure, and Todd Philips's comic book movie will win the Golden Lion ... oh ... oh I get it now. 
