DECEMBER PREDICTIONS

Best Picture
1917
Bombshell 
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker 
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

Right now there are only seven films (the ones listed here sans Bombshell) that I can feasibly see being nominated, but I also don't see it being fewer than eight this year so I threw in Bombshell anticipating it to be the Vice-esque late release "surprise" big player at the industry awards. That could also be Richard Jewell which I think continues to have a strong early showing (anticipating a strong performance at the Globes) but it's a Clint film that people will forget about two weeks after seeing it tops, ultimately any passion for it will peter out come Oscar voting. 

I still think people are drastically overestimating Parasite (loved the film, hate to admit it) and as I've said feel that way more strongly now that I have seen it; honestly if I was taking the film at face-value and was unaware of its box office receipts and unanimous critical acclaim, I wouldn't even be predicting it for an International Film nod. Now obviously it's the undisputed frontrunner in that category, I'm not denying that, but it's a weird Korean film and weird Korean films never even get nominated in that category anyway ... again, I do think Parasite is certainly going to be a first in that regard and will play really with directors and screenwriters branches, but ... I just don't see it here at all. I also don't get where all the faith in The Farewell has been coming from all season? A24 drastically underperformed last year and I think this year will prove to be the same. 

Best Director
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

Best Actor
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

"Oh my god but what about Banderas?" Yeah no I'm not convinced yet ... and Egerton feels like the biggest no-brainer of the season that a lot of people are just overlooking. If anyone I listed falls out for Banderas, it's either De Niro or DiCaprio. 

Best Actress
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong'o, Us
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell 
Renee Zellweger, Judy

Yes, I realize predicting Nyong'o might just seem like an overreaction to her NYFCC win, but now that she's entered the conversation this nomination just makes too much sense to me, even despite the genre obstacle and the early release obstacle. 

Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

Quickly became a weird category ... these five all looked like sure-things, now Hanks and Hopkins are super vulnerable with their films drastically underperforming and even Pacino doesn't feel totally safe anymore (but I do think his performance will play better with the industry awards, it's showier and he's the showier personality too). I have no confidence in Hanks and Hopkins but I also don't see anyone taking their place ... again I have no expectation for A24 at all so that's a no to Brown for now, and I hate to admit it but I really can't see Dafoe at all ... maybe Alda but I think he's too much of an afterthought in his film, or at least seems that way, I could theoretically see him build momentum ... and who else? Rockwell? Lithgow? Maybe? 

Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell 
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers 
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell 

Best Original Screenplay
Bombshell
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes

And at this point might as well start throwing in the techs as well...

Best Cinematography
1917
The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse
Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood 

Best Film Editing
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Marriage Story
Parasite 

Best Original Score
1917
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Marriage Story
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Production Design
1917
Cats
Jojo Rabbit 
Joker
Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

Best Costume Design
Dolemite Is My Name
Downton Abbey
Little Women
Rocketman 
Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood 

Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Bombshell
The Irishman
Joker
Judy
Rocketman 

Best Visual Effects
Alita: Battle Angel 
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Sound Mixing
1917
Avengers: Endgame 
Ford v. Ferrari
Rocketman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Sound Editing
1917
Avengers: Endgame
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

I was gonna add my win predictions for all of these categories too but then gave up realizing that too many of them are still way too difficult right now. Some that I feel good about: 1917 in Cinematography and Score, Bombshell for Makeup & Hair, OUATIH for Production Design ... and that's about it. Phoenix, Dern, and Pitt all feel good too at the moment, but it's also way too early to confidently "call" an acting category (and way too late to treat it as purely hypothetical speculation).