Saoirse Ronan for 'Little Women': Is she In or Out?

In my mind she was in ever since the project was announced. As I said yesterday in that other thread I don't see the previous adaptations as a hindrance at all - on the contrary, today the story will strike voters as more timely than ever, plus Gerwig found a way to make this version stand out from the crowd. Ronan playing a classic character isn't an obstacle in my eyes but rather an advantage, and while Pugh has gathered plenty of praise, Ronan's reviews are raves as well. In addition they clearly love Ronan and I don't see that suddenly change this time, with a raved BP contender. I don't see how she's not in.

JangoB - Do you think she's a threat for the win?

thomasjerome - Thanks buddy! I like yours too. 

Best Actress is historically the kindest category to early releases, and Nyong'o's performance is super memorable - I really don't see that as a deterrent. The genre bias is there, definitely, but the film was a big hit and and I think her effortful campaign is enough to sidestep this in a year perceived as "weak" for the category, honestly. I'm sure it helps that she's a former winner. Without the recent diversification of the Academy (across age, gender, nationality, and race) I wouldn't feel as strongly about Nyong'o's chances as I do now - if the precursors rally around her, I think this happens for sure.

She's definitely in the conversation. Whether she's in the top 5 is a different question.

Comfortably in the final 5.

Yeah the major thing that I think could work against her is that I doubt she'll be anywhere near winning, so it's possible that voters would rather go with someone else then. 

I think the case of Amy Adams works for and against Ronan. Adams did miss for Arrival in favor of Ruth Negga who was her film's only nomination while Arrival was a Best Picture and Best Director nominee and had 6 other nominations. Of course, that was the year after #OscarsSoWhite, which could have been a factor, but there were other POC nominees, so I don't think that her nomination was due to some kind of quota that voters were thinking of. 

Before the precursors I did think that because Adams was already a five time nominee, and that unless she was in serious contention to win again that maybe she would miss to someone else because she's not a Streep who they'll basically nominate whenever she's in contention, but then I figured she was in after she hit everything. Then after the Oscar nominations, I began to think that maybe I was onto something. 

Then she had to go and be nominated for Vice though, lol, and she wasn't anywhere near winning for that even when there was a perfect opportunity for her to sweep since King missed SAG and then BAFTA, and Adams also had double nominations at the Globes and at SAG. Maybe she got in because she was playing a real life figure. Or maybe last year's supporting actress category was weaker than 2016's Best Actress race. 

So I could see it going either way. Little Women should rack up multiple nominations, and of the Best Actress contenders, it will probably be only second to Marriage Story in terms of how strong it is. On the other hand, Ronan has already been nominated three times, and likely won't be a factor in the win, and assuming Zellweger, Johansson, and Theron are in, then that only leaves two spots. Some voters might think that Ronan is safe and decide to go with someone else. Or they may feel passion for another contender, so she could be in a position where she's on a lot of ballots but like ranked 3rd or lower and isn't able to secure enough #1 votes. 

I'm predicting her now because it seems like the safe choice to go with since Little Women should be well liked enough to be nominated in several categories, and she should hit every televised precursor easily. If she misses though, I wouldn't be really shocked as I have been for other snubs although it would seem a little bit surprising.

I'm gonna be a party pooper here and say OUT. I just don't see it happening for her this year😁

I think she's probaly out now. It's looking like Zellweger, Theron, Johansson, Nyong'o, and Erivo with Awkwafina as the alternate.

Side note: It’s weird to think that last year, folks were writing Awkwafina off as nothing special, and a year later she’s a major Best Actress threat.

Still out. I'm predicting :

Zellwegger
Theron
Johansson
Erivo
N'yongo/alt. Awkwafina

Missing SAG was a big deal.I think she's out now.

Sometimes late releases like that miss some awards. I still think she gets a nod.