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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2019 13:23:48 GMT
Me predicting Nyong'o over Ronan yesterday seemed to generate quite a bit of discussion - I wanted to gauge the feeling forum-wide. Even though we've seen memorable iterations of Jo March before and Florence Pugh as Amy is said to be best in show, do you guys all have faith in Ronan scoring a nomination?
I'm currently thinking this only happens if voters are on auto-pilot, but I guess we'll need to see how the precursors treat Ronan to know for sure.
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Post by JangoB on Nov 27, 2019 13:42:37 GMT
In my mind she was in ever since the project was announced. As I said yesterday in that other thread I don't see the previous adaptations as a hindrance at all - on the contrary, today the story will strike voters as more timely than ever, plus Gerwig found a way to make this version stand out from the crowd. Ronan playing a classic character isn't an obstacle in my eyes but rather an advantage, and while Pugh has gathered plenty of praise, Ronan's reviews are raves as well. In addition they clearly love Ronan and I don't see that suddenly change this time, with a raved BP contender. I don't see how she's not in.
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Post by thomasjerome on Nov 27, 2019 13:47:03 GMT
I do believe film will be strong and Ronan's personal reviews are great enough, so I think she's in. She never missed a nom for a BP nominated film. As for precursors, GG nom is a sure bet, BAFTA loves her enough to give a (well-deserved) nom for "The Lovely Bones" and SAG finally got the screeners today I think. She'll not win a major critics award for this but regional critics will nominate her. If Nyong'o will get in - which is possible - I think she'll replace Theron as I don't believe "Bombshell" will get this kind of buzz or reviews.
Great avatar, by the way.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2019 16:47:03 GMT
JangoB - Do you think she's a threat for the win? thomasjerome - Thanks buddy! I like yours too.
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Post by stephen on Nov 27, 2019 16:52:36 GMT
I think she makes much more sense than Nyong'o, because she a.) doesn't have an early release, b.) doesn't have genre bias, c.) it has a strong shot at getting into more above-the-line categories than Us, and d.) Ronan has been on quite the hot streak with the Academy of late. I don't think she's quite "safe" yet, though, and I don't really get "winner" vibes off of her. Feels like it'll be another notch in her already well-worn belt on her way to her eventual win.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2019 16:59:47 GMT
I think she makes much more sense than Nyong'o, because she a.) doesn't have an early release, b.) doesn't have genre bias, c.) it has a strong shot at getting into more above-the-line categories than Us, and d.) Ronan has been on quite the hot streak with the Academy of late. I don't think she's quite "safe" yet, though, and I don't really get "winner" vibes off of her. Feels like it'll be another notch in her already well-worn belt on her way to her eventual win. Best Actress is historically the kindest category to early releases, and Nyong'o's performance is super memorable - I really don't see that as a deterrent. The genre bias is there, definitely, but the film was a big hit and and I think her effortful campaign is enough to sidestep this in a year perceived as "weak" for the category, honestly. I'm sure it helps that she's a former winner. Without the recent diversification of the Academy (across age, gender, nationality, and race) I wouldn't feel as strongly about Nyong'o's chances as I do now - if the precursors rally around her, I think this happens for sure.
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Post by stephen on Nov 27, 2019 17:05:35 GMT
I think she makes much more sense than Nyong'o, because she a.) doesn't have an early release, b.) doesn't have genre bias, c.) it has a strong shot at getting into more above-the-line categories than Us, and d.) Ronan has been on quite the hot streak with the Academy of late. I don't think she's quite "safe" yet, though, and I don't really get "winner" vibes off of her. Feels like it'll be another notch in her already well-worn belt on her way to her eventual win. Best Actress is historically the kindest category to early releases, and Nyong'o's performance is super memorable - I really don't see that as a deterrent. The genre bias is there, definitely, but the film was a big hit and and I think her effortful campaign is enough to sidestep this in a year perceived as "weak" for the category, honestly. I'm sure it helps that she's a former winner. Without the recent diversification of the Academy (across age, gender, nationality, and race) I wouldn't feel as strongly about Nyong'o's chances as I do now - if the precursors rally around her, I think this happens for sure. Us did very well at the box office, but it doesn't have nearly the amount of cultural cache or staying power of Peele's debut. It needs a resurgence, which would require the critics to go to bat for Nyong'o, and while she is indeed a former winner, I feel like the "afterglow" period when one usually gets a follow-up nomination after winning an Oscar has lapsed for her, so it's no longer a surety like it would be if Us came out right after her Oscar win. It should also be noted that it's been historically incredibly difficult for a woman of color to attain a nomination after winning an Oscar, to the point that only one actress (Octavia Spencer) has done it in Oscar history. Precursors could certainly change things, but for now, I don't see it, especially when there are far more Oscar-friendly performances in the race who have far fewer cons in their column than she does. Still, if she did get in, that'd be neat.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 27, 2019 17:06:01 GMT
She's definitely in the conversation. Whether she's in the top 5 is a different question.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2019 17:08:38 GMT
Best Actress is historically the kindest category to early releases, and Nyong'o's performance is super memorable - I really don't see that as a deterrent. The genre bias is there, definitely, but the film was a big hit and and I think her effortful campaign is enough to sidestep this in a year perceived as "weak" for the category, honestly. I'm sure it helps that she's a former winner. Without the recent diversification of the Academy (across age, gender, nationality, and race) I wouldn't feel as strongly about Nyong'o's chances as I do now - if the precursors rally around her, I think this happens for sure. Us did very well at the box office, but it doesn't have nearly the amount of cultural cache or staying power of Peele's debut. It needs a resurgence, which would require the critics to go to bat for Nyong'o, and while she is indeed a former winner, I feel like the "afterglow" period when one usually gets a follow-up nomination after winning an Oscar has lapsed for her, so it's no longer a surety like it would be if Us came out right after her Oscar win. It should also be noted that it's been historically incredibly difficult for a woman of color to attain a nomination after winning an Oscar, to the point that only one actress (Octavia Spencer) has done it in Oscar history. Precursors could certainly change things, but for now, I don't see it, especially when there are far more Oscar-friendly performances in the race who have far fewer cons in their column than she does. Still, if she did get in, that'd be neat. Fair enough! I definitely understand your thinking. Nyong'o would certainly have a better career is she were white, unfortunately, but I think she's carved an interesting niche for herself - she's obviously beloved by the media and Hollywood insiders (Oprah, Ellen, etc.). We'll see!
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Post by TerryMontana on Nov 27, 2019 17:17:05 GMT
Comfortably in the final 5.
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Post by LaraQ on Nov 27, 2019 17:58:57 GMT
Unless people balk at the thought of giving a 4th nomination to a 25yr old,then it's probably inevitable that she gets in.She is "the new Meryl Streep" after all.
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Post by morton on Nov 27, 2019 19:50:32 GMT
I think she makes much more sense than Nyong'o, because she a.) doesn't have an early release, b.) doesn't have genre bias, c.) it has a strong shot at getting into more above-the-line categories than Us, and d.) Ronan has been on quite the hot streak with the Academy of late. I don't think she's quite "safe" yet, though, and I don't really get "winner" vibes off of her. Feels like it'll be another notch in her already well-worn belt on her way to her eventual win. Yeah the major thing that I think could work against her is that I doubt she'll be anywhere near winning, so it's possible that voters would rather go with someone else then. I think the case of Amy Adams works for and against Ronan. Adams did miss for Arrival in favor of Ruth Negga who was her film's only nomination while Arrival was a Best Picture and Best Director nominee and had 6 other nominations. Of course, that was the year after #OscarsSoWhite, which could have been a factor, but there were other POC nominees, so I don't think that her nomination was due to some kind of quota that voters were thinking of. Before the precursors I did think that because Adams was already a five time nominee, and that unless she was in serious contention to win again that maybe she would miss to someone else because she's not a Streep who they'll basically nominate whenever she's in contention, but then I figured she was in after she hit everything. Then after the Oscar nominations, I began to think that maybe I was onto something. Then she had to go and be nominated for Vice though, lol, and she wasn't anywhere near winning for that even when there was a perfect opportunity for her to sweep since King missed SAG and then BAFTA, and Adams also had double nominations at the Globes and at SAG. Maybe she got in because she was playing a real life figure. Or maybe last year's supporting actress category was weaker than 2016's Best Actress race. So I could see it going either way. Little Women should rack up multiple nominations, and of the Best Actress contenders, it will probably be only second to Marriage Story in terms of how strong it is. On the other hand, Ronan has already been nominated three times, and likely won't be a factor in the win, and assuming Zellweger, Johansson, and Theron are in, then that only leaves two spots. Some voters might think that Ronan is safe and decide to go with someone else. Or they may feel passion for another contender, so she could be in a position where she's on a lot of ballots but like ranked 3rd or lower and isn't able to secure enough #1 votes. I'm predicting her now because it seems like the safe choice to go with since Little Women should be well liked enough to be nominated in several categories, and she should hit every televised precursor easily. If she misses though, I wouldn't be really shocked as I have been for other snubs although it would seem a little bit surprising.
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Post by bob-coppola on Nov 27, 2019 21:14:12 GMT
I don't thin Ronan will win for playing Jo, but I think it'd take a very bizarre scenario for her to miss this year. It's a great role and appeals to her admirers, the movie has universal, overwhelming praise so far and it will find a passionate audience. One could say "oh, but Adams missed in 2016"... well, I don't think the comparison makes sense and if you use it to make an argument about Ronan, you could do the same about literally any other person.
Arrival is a sci-fi drama - so, you have the usual genre bias - in which Adams delivered a suberb but subtle performance, with barely no Oscar clips. That couldn't be further from the truth about Ronan: Little Women is a traditional drama/comedy, in which the acting is usually a strong talking point. We know Ronan has many clips and, according to the critics, she plays them very well. As much as I love Arrival and Adams' turn in it, it is a perfectly reasonable scenario that AMPAS loved it enough to give Villeneuve a BD nod without recognizing the lead actress. But seeing how LW is likely to even win Adapted Screenplay and Gerwig is in the mix for the BD race, it's very unlikely that they will shower this movie with love but not remember to check the BA box for Jo March.
Nyong'o is, at best, this year's Toni Collette, but with the disavantage of not even being an indie darling, as she was inelegible from the Gotham and Spirits. She's fighting for the #5 spot, but I'd bet on Moss, Awkwafina and Woodard before her.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Nov 27, 2019 22:13:32 GMT
I'm gonna be a party pooper here and say OUT. I just don't see it happening for her this year😁
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Post by JangoB on Nov 28, 2019 3:01:12 GMT
JangoB - Do you think she's a threat for the win? thomasjerome - Thanks buddy! I like yours too. I don't think she'll be winning even if I'm confident in the nomination. Although I'm not sure who will win at the moment. Johansson perhaps? Or Zelly? Maybe even Megyn Kelly? (yes, that was meant to be a poem!)
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Post by Allenism on Dec 11, 2019 23:55:39 GMT
I think she's probaly out now. It's looking like Zellweger, Theron, Johansson, Nyong'o, and Erivo with Awkwafina as the alternate.
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 12, 2019 0:01:29 GMT
I think she's probaly out now. It's looking like Zellweger, Theron, Johansson, Nyong'o, and Erivo with Awkwafina as the alternate. What he said.
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Dec 12, 2019 0:23:03 GMT
Side note: It’s weird to think that last year, folks were writing Awkwafina off as nothing special, and a year later she’s a major Best Actress threat.
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Dec 12, 2019 0:46:04 GMT
Still in.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Dec 12, 2019 1:50:30 GMT
Still out. I'm predicting :
Zellwegger Theron Johansson Erivo N'yongo/alt. Awkwafina
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Post by TerryMontana on Dec 12, 2019 6:46:52 GMT
Voted for in but now I don't see it coming...
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Post by LaraQ on Dec 12, 2019 12:21:11 GMT
Missing SAG was a big deal.I think she's out now.
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Dec 12, 2019 23:00:59 GMT
Missing SAG was a big deal.I think she's out now. I think they just didn't see LITTLE WOMEN. When does it get released anyway?? Cuz I see it doing VERY WELL B.O. for a movie of its kind, and that will at least help Ronan and Pugh, with a long shot BP nod still possible.
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Post by countjohn on Dec 12, 2019 23:17:27 GMT
Missing SAG was a big deal.I think she's out now. I think they just didn't see LITTLE WOMEN. When does it get released anyway?? Cuz I see it doing VERY WELL B.O. for a movie of its kind, and that will at least help Ronan and Pugh, with a long shot BP nod still possible. Sometimes late releases like that miss some awards. I still think she gets a nod.
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Post by LaraQ on Dec 13, 2019 12:13:52 GMT
Missing SAG was a big deal.I think she's out now. I think they just didn't see LITTLE WOMEN. When does it get released anyway?? Cuz I see it doing VERY WELL B.O. for a movie of its kind, and that will at least help Ronan and Pugh, with a long shot BP nod still possible. Bombshell was in the same position,it screened for SAG members around the same time as LW and it got a lot of nominations,so I don't think that was the problem tbh.It opens on Dec 25th and I agree that it will probably do some decent business at the BO.
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