|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 10, 2019 20:38:46 GMT
I break it down as such.
SAFE PICKS:
Scorsese
Tarantino
Baumbach
And the other two coming from some combination of (I’m gonna cast a broad net because the directors branch can be unpredictable so some are more likely than others):
Bong
Mendes
Gerwig
Waititi
Heller
Mangold
Almodovar
Meirelles
Eastwood
Right now I’ll say Bong and Mendes.
|
|
|
|
Post by TerryMontana on Oct 10, 2019 20:52:14 GMT
I don't see Eastwood or Mangold being in the list of five. On the other hand, I guess Bong has a very good chance.
I'd say Heller, Waititi, Bong and Mendes will compete for the two remaining places after Baumbach, Scorsese and QT.
|
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Oct 10, 2019 21:03:49 GMT
Noah Baumbach
Bong Joon-ho
Sam Mendes
Martin Scorsese
Quentin Tarantino
That said, I feel like Baumbach could miss because his direction isn't flashy (and I don't think he necessarily needs to be nominated here for his film to win, as it's by all accounts an actor/screenplay-driven movie), and I actually wouldn't be surprised if Tarantino got a surprise miss as well. I feel Bong's got the critical momentum, Mendes will be the big tech player, and Scorsese's Scorsese. I'm still gonna say Robert Eggers could get in if A24 actually got off its ass to push for it, and I feel like Heller is a sleeper pick.
|
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 10, 2019 21:26:04 GMT
Noah Baumbach Bong Joon-ho Sam Mendes Martin Scorsese Quentin Tarantino That said, I feel like Baumbach could miss because his direction isn't flashy (and I don't think he necessarily needs to be nominated here for his film to win, as it's by all accounts an actor/screenplay-driven movie), and I actually wouldn't be surprised if Tarantino got a surprise miss as well. I feel Bong's got the critical momentum, Mendes will be the big tech player, and Scorsese's Scorsese. I'm still gonna say Robert Eggers could get in if A24 actually got off its ass to push for it, and I feel like Heller is a sleeper pick. After what happened to Ben Affleck literally anything can happen in this category. I just find the big three more likely to not be snubbed than the others. (Though Scorsese missing would floor me, the other two would be about as surprising as the Scott, Bigelow or Greengrass snubs at this point) |
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Oct 10, 2019 21:33:34 GMT
Noah Baumbach Bong Joon-ho Sam Mendes Martin Scorsese Quentin Tarantino That said, I feel like Baumbach could miss because his direction isn't flashy (and I don't think he necessarily needs to be nominated here for his film to win, as it's by all accounts an actor/screenplay-driven movie), and I actually wouldn't be surprised if Tarantino got a surprise miss as well. I feel Bong's got the critical momentum, Mendes will be the big tech player, and Scorsese's Scorsese. I'm still gonna say Robert Eggers could get in if A24 actually got off its ass to push for it, and I feel like Heller is a sleeper pick. After what happened to Ben Affleck literally anything can happen happen in this category. I just find the big three more likely to not be snubbed than the orders. (Though Scorsese missing would floor me, the other two would be about as surprising as the Scott, Bigelow or Greengrass snubs at this point) Yeah, I think Best Director is very much a wealth of passion-pick contenders, even more this year than it normally is. It's gonna all come down to timing in the end. |
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Oct 11, 2019 0:31:49 GMT
Noah Baumbach Bong Joon-ho Sam Mendes Martin Scorsese Quentin Tarantino That said, I feel like Baumbach could miss because his direction isn't flashy (and I don't think he necessarily needs to be nominated here for his film to win, as it's by all accounts an actor/screenplay-driven movie), and I actually wouldn't be surprised if Tarantino got a surprise miss as well. I feel Bong's got the critical momentum, Mendes will be the big tech player, and Scorsese's Scorsese. I'm still gonna say Robert Eggers could get in if A24 actually got off its ass to push for it, and I feel like Heller is a sleeper pick. I feel like the fact that in recent times both Lonregan and McCarthy got nominated kind of negates this point. |
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Oct 11, 2019 0:32:56 GMT
Baumbach
Bong
Mendes
Scorsese
Tarantino
|
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Oct 11, 2019 0:38:00 GMT
Noah Baumbach Bong Joon-ho Sam Mendes Martin Scorsese Quentin Tarantino That said, I feel like Baumbach could miss because his direction isn't flashy (and I don't think he necessarily needs to be nominated here for his film to win, as it's by all accounts an actor/screenplay-driven movie), and I actually wouldn't be surprised if Tarantino got a surprise miss as well. I feel Bong's got the critical momentum, Mendes will be the big tech player, and Scorsese's Scorsese. I'm still gonna say Robert Eggers could get in if A24 actually got off its ass to push for it, and I feel like Heller is a sleeper pick. I feel like the fact that in recent times both Lonregan and McCarthy got nominated kind of negates this point. Lonergan got in in what I consider to be a pretty weak year/field, and McCarthy I think was probably fourth of the lineup, as AGI, Miller and McKay were all flashier and played more to what the directors' branch tends to go for. 2015 was also kind of a weird field because by rights, Scott should've gotten in and missed. But look at Farrelly last year and Affleck in 2012. Director and Picture have really veered away from each other of late, with splits happening more often than not (2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2018). People really are starting to separate the two, and I think it's definitely plausible to see a film with subdued direction miss out there in lieu of flashier fare but still score the top prize because of other above-the-line categories. |
|
morton
Based
Posts: 2,811
Likes: 2,954
|
Post by morton on Oct 11, 2019 3:33:30 GMT
Noah Baumbach Bong Joon-ho Sam Mendes Martin Scorsese Quentin Tarantino That said, I feel like Baumbach could miss because his direction isn't flashy (and I don't think he necessarily needs to be nominated here for his film to win, as it's by all accounts an actor/screenplay-driven movie), and I actually wouldn't be surprised if Tarantino got a surprise miss as well. I feel Bong's got the critical momentum, Mendes will be the big tech player, and Scorsese's Scorsese. I'm still gonna say Robert Eggers could get in if A24 actually got off its ass to push for it, and I feel like Heller is a sleeper pick. I feel like the fact that in recent times both Lonregan and McCarthy got nominated kind of negates this point. I'm going with the consensus 5 right now too; although, it does seem like at least one will miss because it seems too early for this category to be locked up. I guess it's possible that Baumbach could miss, but I've read that Marriage Story is actually "flashy" at least moreso than Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri was. I feel with this branch though that everyone is at risk of being snubbed except Scorsese. |
|
|
|
Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 11, 2019 3:51:43 GMT
yeah that five looks pretty impenetrable but after Pawlikowski's nomination last year I feel like anything's on the table, it's just a question of if AMPAS really wants to honor someone. Gerwig doesn't feel likely (even if Little Women lands in a big way, she had her moment in 2017) but Almodovar is totally possible as a "paying respects" nod and surely even Eggers is on the table as a left-field artsy pick.
But yeah, for now I'm sticking with the five
Scorsese
Tarantino
Mendes
Bong
Baumbach
|
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 11, 2019 18:39:47 GMT
yeah that five looks pretty impenetrable but after Pawlikowski's nomination last year I feel like anything's on the table, it's just a question of if AMPAS really wants to honor someone. Gerwig doesn't feel likely (even if Little Women lands in a big way, she had her moment in 2017) but Almodovar is totally possible as a "paying respects" nod and surely even Eggers is on the table as a left-field artsy pick. But yeah, for now I'm sticking with the five Scorsese Tarantino Mendes Bong Baumbach I think Bong and Almodovar being in the race pretty much kill Eggers chances at a nomination. Of course in this category there is always the chance of a Zeitlin level surprise but I would say nobody should get their hopes up. |
|
|
|
Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Oct 12, 2019 19:20:20 GMT
Scorses
Tarantino
Bong
Waititi
Mendes
|
|
jakob
Full Member
Posts: 827 
Likes: 698
|
Post by jakob on Oct 13, 2019 16:35:55 GMT
Sam Mendes
Martin Scorsese
Bong Joon Ho
Marielle Heller
Noah Baumauch
|
|
|
|
Post by DanQuixote on Oct 14, 2019 16:16:52 GMT
01. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
02. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
03. Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
04. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
05. Sam Mendes, 1917
06. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
07. Todd Phillips, Joker
08. Lulu Wang, The Farewell
09. Greta Gerwig, Little Women
10. Pedro Almodóvar, Pain and Glory
11. Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life
12. Jay Roach, Bombshell
13. Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
14. Robert Eggers, The Lighthouse
15. Fernando Merielles, The Two Popes
|
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Oct 14, 2019 16:19:35 GMT
^Same Top 5
|
|
Javi
Badass
Posts: 1,532
Likes: 1,622
|
Post by Javi on Nov 29, 2019 21:09:02 GMT
Biggest fear come Oscar night... Pacino losing that Oscar to Pitt (and I like Pitt).
I think The Irishman is vulnerable in all categories, actually. Thought Director would be a lock but Bong has great support and Roma showed that a foreign pic can win that category... It'll be an interesting season for sure.
|
|
|
|
Post by pacinoyes on Nov 29, 2019 21:30:20 GMT
Biggest fear come Oscar night... Pacino losing that Oscar to Pitt (and I like Pitt). I think The Irishman is vulnerable in all categories, actually. Thought Director would be a lock but Bong has great support and Roma showed that a foreign pic can win that category... It'll be an interesting season for sure. I've said this before but Pacino while being the most awarded actor in history (in Triple Crown wins) is also an insanely left out of awards actor, like in Oscar/Emmy/Tony it doesn't dovetail much with his most recognizable roles even. I really think with Pacino/Pesci/Pitt the actors themselves are almost besides the point - it's just the film and its momentum that will reward the actor entirely here - who wins is just a by-product of that. It's hard to know how much momentum they will have in a couple months. I expect Pesci and Pitt to win a lot of award bodies and Pacino maybe to win televised awards a bit more. If Scorsese loses to Bong (entirely possible) it creates an extremely odd thing where Scorsese's editor, his screenwriter, maybe Supporting actor AND his picture win and he is left out.......  |
|
|
|
Post by JangoB on Nov 29, 2019 21:42:56 GMT
Biggest fear come Oscar night... Pacino losing that Oscar to Pitt (and I like Pitt). I think The Irishman is vulnerable in all categories, actually. Thought Director would be a lock but Bong has great support and Roma showed that a foreign pic can win that category... It'll be an interesting season for sure. I think Scorsese's biggest threat for Best Director ain't gonna be no Bong - it'll be Mendes with his one-shot experience which fits right into what tends to win in that category as of late. And there's Tarantino to consider too. But yeah, the season will definitely be fascinating to observe. |
|
|
|
Post by pacinoyes on Nov 29, 2019 21:45:32 GMT
Biggest fear come Oscar night... Pacino losing that Oscar to Pitt (and I like Pitt). I think The Irishman is vulnerable in all categories, actually. Thought Director would be a lock but Bong has great support and Roma showed that a foreign pic can win that category... It'll be an interesting season for sure. I think Scorsese's biggest threat for Best Director ain't gonna be no Bong - it'll be Mendes with his one-shot experience which fits right into what tends to win in that category as of late. And there's Tarantino to consider too. But yeah, the season will definitely be fascinating to observe. I just can'r believe that Sam Mendes gets a 2nd Oscar before and over Scorsese though..... |
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Nov 29, 2019 21:50:02 GMT
I think Scorsese's biggest threat for Best Director ain't gonna be no Bong - it'll be Mendes with his one-shot experience which fits right into what tends to win in that category as of late. And there's Tarantino to consider too. But yeah, the season will definitely be fascinating to observe. I just can'r believe that Sam Mendes gets a 2nd Oscar before and over Scorsese though..... Eastwood got his second before Scorsese got his first. Hazanavicius won one over Scorsese making his own flashy ode to old Hollywood. Costner won over Scorsese's magnum opus when he was already seen as overdue for recognition. Scorsese is well-respected in the industry, but the Academy doesn't really think of it in terms of "oh, how dare X get a second Oscar before Y!" If anything, they'd probably want to reward Mendes for going so far outside of his comfort zone with an entirely different sort of movie to the one he won his first Oscar for, rather than rewarding Scorsese for another crime film. |
|
|
|
Post by JangoB on Nov 29, 2019 21:52:51 GMT
I think Scorsese's biggest threat for Best Director ain't gonna be no Bong - it'll be Mendes with his one-shot experience which fits right into what tends to win in that category as of late. And there's Tarantino to consider too. But yeah, the season will definitely be fascinating to observe. I just can'r believe that Sam Mendes gets a 2nd Oscar before and over Scorsese though..... I completely understand what you mean but we all know that the Oscars often don't work this way. It's the thing of the moment that often counts, not the overall legacy, so I can definitely see them going for Mendes's super flashy achievement even over Scorsese. Whose film, it must be said, is also not some cute little indie but a properly big achievement in its own right. Seems to me the BD battle will be a bloody one. |
|
|
|
Post by pacinoyes on Nov 29, 2019 21:57:40 GMT
I just can'r believe that Sam Mendes gets a 2nd Oscar before and over Scorsese though..... Eastwood got his second before Scorsese got his first. Hazanavicius won one over Scorsese making his own flashy ode to old Hollywood. Costner won over Scorsese's magnum opus when he was already seen as overdue for recognition. Scorsese is well-respected in the industry, but the Academy doesn't really think of it in terms of "oh, how dare X get a second Oscar before Y!" If anything, they'd probably want to reward Mendes for going so far outside of his comfort zone with an entirely different sort of movie to the one he won his first Oscar for, rather than rewarding Scorsese for another crime film. I don't buy that at all - first of all Eastwood isn't Mendes - Mendes would be 20 years between wins (is that a record?), second of all Hazanavicius is just one - not the same thing at all........and 1990 Martin Scorsese for Costner's doesn't match up to a 2019 Scorsese. I do consider 1917 a threat in some ways but again, no screenplay nod (probably) and no acting nod (probably) make it extremely unlikely to win BP and I'd put Mendes behind Bong on Marty's worry list for BD. Ymmv though........ |
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Nov 29, 2019 22:04:49 GMT
Eastwood got his second before Scorsese got his first. Hazanavicius won one over Scorsese making his own flashy ode to old Hollywood. Costner won over Scorsese's magnum opus when he was already seen as overdue for recognition. Scorsese is well-respected in the industry, but the Academy doesn't really think of it in terms of "oh, how dare X get a second Oscar before Y!" If anything, they'd probably want to reward Mendes for going so far outside of his comfort zone with an entirely different sort of movie to the one he won his first Oscar for, rather than rewarding Scorsese for another crime film. I don't buy that at all - first of all Eastwood isn't Mendes - Mendes would be 20 years between wins (is that a record?), second of all Hazanavicius is just one - not the same thing at all........and 1990 Martin Scorsese for Costner's doesn't match up to a 2019 Scorsese. I do consider 1917 a threat in some ways but again, no screenplay nod (probably) and no acting nod (probably) make it extremely unlikely to win BP and I'd put Mendes behind Bong on Marty's worry list for BD. Ymmv though........ I believe it is a record, and I believe that actually serves Mendes better than Scorsese, whose Departed victory is still relatively recent. I don't know what your argument against Hazanavicius is. If the Academy cared enough about giving Scorsese a second Oscar, they could've done it right then and there. He had the Globe, he'd won a fair amount of precursors, it was a departure from his typical fare and it embraced Hollywood . . . and yet he lost to the OSS 117 guy with a name Michael Douglas can't even pronounce. And sure, 1990 Martin Scorsese might not be on par with 2019 Scorsese (I say "might" because I could argue the opposite), but 2019 Scorsese already has an Oscar, so again, they might not feel like they need to reward him again if there are reasonable alternatives in friendlier projects. Scorsese could absolutely lose, especially if his film doesn't build up wins in below-the-line categories, which is where Best Director winners tend to be correlated with of late. |
|
|
|
Post by pacinoyes on Nov 29, 2019 22:17:08 GMT
I don't know what your argument against Hazanavicius is. If the Academy cared enough about giving Scorsese a second Oscar, they could've done it right then and there. He had the Globe, he'd won a fair amount of precursors, it was a departure from his typical fare and it embraced Hollywood . . . and yet he lost to the OSS 117 guy with a name Michael Douglas can't even pronounce. And sure, 1990 Martin Scorsese might not be on par with 2019 Scorsese (I say "might" because I could argue the opposite), but 2019 Scorsese already has an Oscar, so again, they might not feel like they need to reward him again if there are reasonable alternatives in friendlier projects.
Scorsese could absolutely lose, especially if his film doesn't build up wins in below-the-line categories, which is where Best Director winners tend to be correlated with of late.I think we're closer to agreement than it seems but are talking around the issue - Scorsese could lose - sure - but to me to it's Bong more than Mendes because I don't buy that below the line correlation in what I put in bold above. In the 9 years this decade BP/BD have matched 4 times - it's not minor at all recently. Hazanavicius had the BP winner and didn't have an Oscar.........that's the difference and makes him more like Bong. I don't think any film that looks like 1917 has ever won BP (?) - without a screenplay nod and no acting nods (and it may miss editing too!) - so to me without a BP win or those nods I don't see him as a threat to snatch the BD prize either. Bong is getting a screenplay nod, editing and maybe sneak in an acting one.......he's more of a threat because of it to me. |
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Nov 29, 2019 22:23:26 GMT
I don't know what your argument against Hazanavicius is. If the Academy cared enough about giving Scorsese a second Oscar, they could've done it right then and there. He had the Globe, he'd won a fair amount of precursors, it was a departure from his typical fare and it embraced Hollywood . . . and yet he lost to the OSS 117 guy with a name Michael Douglas can't even pronounce. And sure, 1990 Martin Scorsese might not be on par with 2019 Scorsese (I say "might" because I could argue the opposite), but 2019 Scorsese already has an Oscar, so again, they might not feel like they need to reward him again if there are reasonable alternatives in friendlier projects.
Scorsese could absolutely lose, especially if his film doesn't build up wins in below-the-line categories, which is where Best Director winners tend to be correlated with of late.I think we're closer to agreement than it seems but are talking around the issue - Scorsese could lose - sure - but to me to it's Bong more than Mendes because I don't buy that below the line correlation in what I put in bold above. In the 9 years this decade BP/BD have matched 4 times - it's not minor at all recently. Hazanavicius had the BP winner and didn't have an Oscar.........that's the difference and makes him more like Bong. I don't think any film that looks like 1919 has ever won BP (?) - without a screenplay nod and no acting nods (and it may miss editing too!) - so to me without a BP win or those nods I don't see him as a threat to snatch the BD prize either. Bong is getting a screenplay nod, editing and maybe sneak in an acting one.......he's more of a threat because of it to me. I think Bong is absolutely a contender, but I think he's got more of his work cut out for him because his film isn't a technical marvel (even though it should totally win Production Design; the behind-the-scenes on that is crazy!) and I feel like if he is winning Director, surely that's momentum enough to take him over the hurdle in Picture. His film is much more audience-friendly and approachable than Roma, and there isn't a Netflix stigma. Hazanavicius had the BP winner (and Weinstein) but he could easily have lost out in Director. Scorsese would've been the favorable alternative, as Hugo took home several techs. But they didn't go with that. Bong, meanwhile, likely doesn't have an acting frontrunner like The Artist did. I'm not predicting 1917 to win Best Picture unless I see it overperform with Screenplay or even MacKay (who I think will get into BAFTA). I'm still thinking it's Marriage Story. But Parasite is the stealth alternative. It just needs to sustain itself throughout the season. But in terms of Best Director, I think Mendes just fits more in line with traditional winners of late. Major tech player, almost assuredly winning at least one Oscar (Deakins) and possibly two others (both Sounds), with an overdue narrative of its own in Score. I mean, that's four Oscars right there it feels like a de facto frontrunner for. |
|
