Too Easy: Most "Obvious" Pick We're All Missing?

I was just listing stuff that could get a nomination, not a win.........I mean, I'm crazy but not really CRAZY (yet) terry.

I don't know if we're sleeping on him because I have seen a predictions for Dark Waters especially after it was confirmed that it is coming out this year, but Mark Ruffalo would definitely be #1 for me.

It could possibly be a big hit all around because of the subject matter, Ruffalo being popular lately whenever he stars in something baity, maybe goodwill for Haynes after his snub for Carol, and Focus wanting something that can get into Best Picture because Harriet likely won't.

The other ones listed I don't know. I think it was telling that Warner Brothers took Joker to Venice, and are taking Motherless Brooklyn and Just Mercy to so many other festivals.

I guess Alfre Woodard is a possibility since another Best Actress contender bit the dust last night, and Erivo could possibly miss. She has a lot of cons though like the fact that Neon's main push is Parasite, and while they did okay with I, Tonya, they totally missed last year, and even with I, Tonya, it's ceiling could have been higher than 2 nominations. Plus, Clemency is premiering at TIFF on a Thursday after the first weekend which means that a lot of reviewers have already gone home and won't get as much attention as the films that premiered earlier.

However, she could pick up at least one big critics win, and maybe the edited version that is premiering today will be better received than the version that was shown at Sundance.

Bad Education will likely come out next year. Even if some company buys it for this year, I think it's too competitive for Jackman to breakthrough even with his raves especially since I think the only other nominations it might get would be possibly Janney and screenplay. He wouldn't have the critics and "welcome to the club" factor that someone like Banderas would have either. If Joker misses BP, he wouldn't have the reviews and box office that Phoenix has. Then the rest of the possible nominees will likely come from Best Picture nominated films.

Maggie Smith might be getting singled out for Downton Abbey, but at least my impression is that it's because of who she is plus who she's playing, in that she's one of the reasons to go see the film, but that she's not doing anything groundbreaking. Other than that, it seems reviews are so-so, and Focus will definitely be pushing Harriet and Dark Waters more in above the line categories. It's possible that Smith could get a random nomination somewhere, but I don't see her making it into the Oscar lineup at all because the film isn't that strong, and I think it's going to be seen as a Christmas type special rather than a big film that would draw non-fans of the series into going to see it.

Finally, from the list I guess there's Cats. It probably won't be totally panned because people's expectations after that trailer will be really low now, but I think it's going to be like The Phantom of the Opera or Evita more than Les Miserables or Chicago. Because of the motion capture thing, I don't see any of the actors making it, and if the techs are like in the trailer, I don't see it being a below the line juggernaut either, that will most likely be 1917 and/or Ford v Ferrari.

As for what else we might be sleeping on, I agree with quetee that maybe someone from Waves like Taylor Russell, since she's been singled out a lot, will probably at least pop up in a lot of breakthrough performance awards, and Waves will probably do well at the Gothams and Spirits. Brown might be able to get a SAG nomination because they love him right now.

Maybe one of the actors from Parasite can at least get some traction with critics like Steven Yuen did last year.

Maybe at least one person from Knives Out can get traction too. It might win the Audience Award at TIFF or at least place which would be a big get, and I think the screenplay could get nominated depending on how they classify some other screenplays like The Two Popes. It could possibly sneak into Best Picture since Lionsgate only has Bombshell which now has bad buzz surrounding it because of the reshoots that they're doing for it. Maybe Christopher Plummer gets another nomination, or they give Daniel Craig a "welcome to the club" nomination, or maybe Ana de Armas gets a nomination this year and sets up her sweep for Blonde. Plummer is probably more likely especially if it get a SAG Ensemble nomination.

I'll go out on a massive limb and say none of these will happen.

No left field nomination would make me as happy as that, because he's just amazing to me. I've been working my way through some random performances of his lately. Not that awards matter but he's remarkable in that way too:

No Oscar nominations until he was 80 ...........then 3 post-80 years of age.........AND on top of that:

He's THE most awarded male actor ever - tied with Pacino - across all mediums (TV/Stage/Film).

Triple Crown winner with 5 Triple Crown wins. This is a mind blowing stat to me - technically you could argue this because one Emmy win is from "voice over" work but that still counts.  

Just an exemplary actor and for an insanely long time too. He's like the male Maggie Smith in a way