dadsburgers
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Post by dadsburgers on Jan 27, 2019 0:43:12 GMT
Yeah Roma was made of a lot of long shots without flashy emphasis on the editing (similar to Birdman). It was also very focused on a singular character, without a flashy ensemble, so I'm not surprised by those "snubs." I'm surprised the SAGE is even taken seriously- it doesn't actually mirror Best Picture at all merit-wise, and the nominations rarely make much sense. Last year TSOW did have a strong ensemble (Hawkins, Jenkins, Spencer, Shannon, Jones, Stuhlbarg) but missed the ensemble nomination, and still went on to win Best Picture, so I won't even count out ensemble-focused movies that were snubbed (The Favourite, Vice).
Roma is a lock for Best Director and the most likely for Best Picture, but I do think that is much more precarious because it is a foreign-language internet film. We know the Academy has bias against the former and they have a fair enough case not to want to vote for a non-theatrical film due to the implications that has on the industry.
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 2, 2019 13:17:35 GMT
According to Gold Derby, 2/14 so-called experts are predicting Spike Lee to win tonight.
Sasha Stone and Tom O'Neil are those two so-called experts.
Whoever wins tonight will get both a Best Director (if not Farrelly) and Best Picture boost.
I am going with the grain and say Cuaron, with Farrelly and Lee as the upsets.
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Post by quetee on Feb 2, 2019 17:09:13 GMT
Well, I'm still hoping Spike pulls off the win.
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 2, 2019 18:17:04 GMT
Well, I'm still hoping Spike pulls off the win. Me too. I am rooting for Lee to win here. I was not a fan of Roma.
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chris3
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I just ordered a slice of pumpkin pie...
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Post by chris3 on Feb 2, 2019 20:14:53 GMT
If Cuaron loses Best Director I vow to never watch the Oscars again, but he's definitely winning so it won't matter.
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Post by stephen on Feb 3, 2019 5:58:04 GMT
Hehehehe, Bo Burnham beat Cooper for Best First Feature.
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Post by bruinjoe96 on Feb 3, 2019 6:01:24 GMT
Hehehehe, Bo Burnham beat Cooper for Best First Feature.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Feb 3, 2019 6:20:26 GMT
Whose child did Cooper kill this season?
He's good enough to be nominated as one of the 5 best of the year but not good enough to win first feature? Ridiculous.
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Post by Pavan on Feb 3, 2019 7:16:13 GMT
Cuarons wins DGA
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Post by bruinjoe96 on Feb 3, 2019 7:18:01 GMT
Welp! It's official. Nobody is stopping Roma.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Feb 3, 2019 7:21:04 GMT
That’s the last nail in the coffin for Blackkklansman. Looks like Green Book is the only thing that can stop Roma now and I think that’s a huge uphill battle.
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Post by Christ_Ian_Bale on Feb 3, 2019 7:38:02 GMT
Whose child did Cooper kill this season? He's good enough to be nominated as one of the 5 best of the year but not good enough to win first feature? Ridiculous. Blunt killed the child, Cooper hid the body.
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 3, 2019 7:47:28 GMT
That’s the last nail in the coffin for Blackkklansman. Looks like Green Book is the only thing that can stop Roma now and I think that’s a huge uphill battle. BlacKkKlansman still has the WGA and the BAFTAs, but if it doesn't win at the WGAs, it's out. The Oscar race is down to either Green Book or Roma. It all depends on who wins the WGA Original. Green Book has the PGA and Globe. Roma has the DGA and Critics Choice.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Feb 3, 2019 8:08:11 GMT
That’s the last nail in the coffin for Blackkklansman. Looks like Green Book is the only thing that can stop Roma now and I think that’s a huge uphill battle. BlacKkKlansman still has the WGA and the BAFTAs, but if it doesn't win at the WGAs, it's out. The Oscar race is down to either Green Book or Roma. It all depends on who wins the WGA Original. Green Book has the PGA and Globe. Roma has the DGA and Critics Choice. The WGA is not a best picture prize and honestly I don’t see anything besides Roma or The Favourite winning BAFTA so likely the chance for anything else to gain significant steam is over. Roma wasn’t eligible for the Globe and won director there and likely would have won drama if eligible. Globes are a wash. PGA is nice though so so Greenbook still has a shot. I think Roma has a decent lead now though.
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 3, 2019 8:24:50 GMT
BlacKkKlansman still has the WGA and the BAFTAs, but if it doesn't win at the WGAs, it's out. The Oscar race is down to either Green Book or Roma. It all depends on who wins the WGA Original. Green Book has the PGA and Globe. Roma has the DGA and Critics Choice. The WGA is not a best picture prize and honestly I don’t see anything besides Roma or The Favourite winning BAFTA so likely the chance for anything else to gain significant steam is over. Roma wasn’t eligible for the Globe and won director there and likely would have won drama if eligible. Globes are a wash. PGA is nice though so so Greenbook still has a shot. I think Roma has a decent lead now though. Tell that to Moonlight and Braveheart. They only won the WGA, and still won Best Picture. It's a toss-up between Roma and Green Book. GB has the Globe and PGA. It also has a great shot at Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay. Roma won the DGA and Critics Choice. You can pretty much circle in Roma for Best Director. Both films have some major hurdles to overcome. Roma would be the first Foreign Film to win and would have to overcome the "Netflix" controversy. On top of that, Roma has no film editing nomination and no SAG ensemble nomination. Green Book doesn't have a best director nomination and no SAG ensemble. If Green Book wins Best Picture, it would be the lowest Tomato score to win since Crash in 2005. Pretty much all of them have at least 90%. Green Book is around 80-82% range. We can go back and forth between the two, but I think it's between those two. The WGA will probably tip the scale for me. The last film to win just DGA was 2000 Crouching Tiger, and that was a Foreign Film and failed to win Best Picture or win Best Director. Million Dollar Baby won the DGA and took home the SAG for Actress and Supporting Actor.
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Post by DeepArcher on Feb 3, 2019 8:29:08 GMT
Burnham beating Cooper is easily among the best things to come out of this awards season. Goddamn glorious.
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Post by pacinoyes on Feb 3, 2019 10:30:06 GMT
It's a toss-up between Roma and Green Book. GB has the Globe and PGA. It also has a great shot at Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay. Roma won the DGA and Critics Choice. You can pretty much circle in Roma for Best Director. Both films have some major hurdles to overcome. Roma would be the first Foreign Film to win and would have to overcome the "Netflix" controversy. On top of that, Roma has no film editing nomination and no SAG ensemble nomination. Green Book doesn't have a best director nomination and no SAG ensemble. If Green Book wins Best Picture, it would be the lowest Tomato score to win since Crash in 2005. Pretty much all of them have at least 90%. Green Book is around 80-82% range. We can go back and forth between the two, but I think it's between those two. The WGA will probably tip the scale for me. Say this all the time, there is no Netflix controversy, Hollywood is coming through Netflix now, it's winning BP actually because it is Netflix rather who has revolutionized the film industry (less than a year after Spielberg and his tone deaf interview) and how we see film, and who can properly run a campaign with the savviest Oscar flack ever (Lisa Taback) and can also throw tons of money behind her campaign and what is actually the best film of the year (imagine!) - even outside of that BP lineup, subtitled or not, black and white or not, stars or not. It's everybody else who has to overcome Netflix actually ........
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Post by evilbliss on Feb 3, 2019 10:45:04 GMT
How is a film is edited matters. It is one of the major things which makes a movie good or bad. The editing stat is part of the package. You cannot logically escape that reality. I remember back in 2005/2006, Brokeback Mountain missed out on an editing nomination, and when people pointed out about how most Best Picture nominees get nominated for director, screenplay, and editing, these people were dismissed as crazy and were under the belief of "well stats break every year". It turns out lacking an editing nomination killed BBM's chances. Homophobia killed BBM chances. You are way too hung up on this. Not really my problem though so good luck with that. This.
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Post by Christ_Ian_Bale on Feb 3, 2019 10:59:56 GMT
Yeah, I'm all for trying to make the race more exciting than it may actually be for the sake of the fun, but this guy has always been annoying as hell, always speaking as this statistic machine that's telling us all how it is, like none of us have been following races for years. And I feel like I lose a brain cell every time Critics Choice is cited as a legit precursor. Also, I do believe this is the guy I fought with repeatedly last year because he kept trying to convince me The Shape of Water couldn't win Picture without winning Original Screenplay.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2019 12:47:07 GMT
shit that reminds me I have to watch eighth grade someday around now lol
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 3, 2019 12:59:00 GMT
Yeah, I'm all for trying to make the race more exciting than it may actually be for the sake of the fun, but this guy has always been annoying as hell, always speaking as this statistic machine that's telling us all how it is, like none of us have been following races for years. And I feel like I lose a brain cell every time Critics Choice is cited as a legit precursor. Also, I do believe this is the guy I fought with repeatedly last year because he kept trying to convince me The Shape of Water couldn't win Picture without winning Original Screenplay.
I predicted The Shape of Water to win Best Picture last year, so apparently that wasn't me. What statistical machine are you referring to? It's all a guess for everybody. In other words everybody has their own statistical machine.
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 3, 2019 13:03:35 GMT
Before I put you on my ignore list. Could you explain yourself here and quote redeem yourself? I have accuracy predicted the best picture winner every year except 2004, 2005, and 2016. Back in 1998, I actually did predict Shakespeare in Love to win. More over, I do not see how it is idiotic to say the race is between ROMA and GREEN BOOK. I have currently have Roma as the favorite.
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Post by wilcinema on Feb 3, 2019 13:50:25 GMT
Great list of winners, honestly. I can't find any issues in Roma, Eighth Grade and Three Identical Strangers.
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 3, 2019 13:50:31 GMT
It's a toss-up between Roma and Green Book. GB has the Globe and PGA. It also has a great shot at Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay. Roma won the DGA and Critics Choice. You can pretty much circle in Roma for Best Director. Both films have some major hurdles to overcome. Roma would be the first Foreign Film to win and would have to overcome the "Netflix" controversy. On top of that, Roma has no film editing nomination and no SAG ensemble nomination. Green Book doesn't have a best director nomination and no SAG ensemble. If Green Book wins Best Picture, it would be the lowest Tomato score to win since Crash in 2005. Pretty much all of them have at least 90%. Green Book is around 80-82% range. We can go back and forth between the two, but I think it's between those two. The WGA will probably tip the scale for me. Say this all the time, there is no Netflix controversy, Hollywood is coming through Netflix now, it's winning BP actually because it is Netflix rather who has revolutionized the film industry (less than a year after Spielberg and his tone deaf interview) and how we see film, and who can properly run a campaign with the savviest Oscar flack ever (Lisa Taback) and can also throw tons of money behind her campaign and what is actually the best film of the year (imagine!) - even outside of that BP lineup, subtitled or not, black and white or not, stars or not. It's everybody else who has to overcome Netflix actually ........ First off, I am a Netflix subscriber. I have nothing against Netflix. I think it's a great service and the Academy should be embracing the new wave. With that said, there's a Netflix controversy. Academy members tend to be older, more conservative (not politically). Just look at this article back in March with Spielberg and the booing of Okja for having the Netlix log pop up: Netflix
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Feb 3, 2019 16:38:41 GMT
The WGA is not a best picture prize and honestly I don’t see anything besides Roma or The Favourite winning BAFTA so likely the chance for anything else to gain significant steam is over. Roma wasn’t eligible for the Globe and won director there and likely would have won drama if eligible. Globes are a wash. PGA is nice though so so Greenbook still has a shot. I think Roma has a decent lead now though. Tell that to Moonlight and Braveheart. They only won the WGA, and still won Best Picture. It's a toss-up between Roma and Green Book. GB has the Globe and PGA. It also has a great shot at Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay. Roma won the DGA and Critics Choice. You can pretty much circle in Roma for Best Director. Both films have some major hurdles to overcome. Roma would be the first Foreign Film to win and would have to overcome the "Netflix" controversy. On top of that, Roma has no film editing nomination and no SAG ensemble nomination. Green Book doesn't have a best director nomination and no SAG ensemble. If Green Book wins Best Picture, it would be the lowest Tomato score to win since Crash in 2005. Pretty much all of them have at least 90%. Green Book is around 80-82% range. We can go back and forth between the two, but I think it's between those two. The WGA will probably tip the scale for me. The last film to win just DGA was 2000 Crouching Tiger, and that was a Foreign Film and failed to win Best Picture or win Best Director. Million Dollar Baby won the DGA and took home the SAG for Actress and Supporting Actor. ....... The WGA is still not a Best Picture prize.... It’s a screenplay prize. Moonlight also won the Globe and Braveheart won the DGA. You lost most of your credibility when you made it obvious that you don’t like Roma. It shows because of which stats you tend to site.
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