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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 26, 2019 0:10:04 GMT
Lets talk about the DGAs here. Alfonso Cuaron is the favorite to win the DGA I assume. He won the Globe, Critics Choice, and most of the critics circle awards.
Statistically, the DGA has predicted the Best Director winner 89% of the time, and the Best Picture winner 77% of the time.
The DGA and PGA has matched 22/29 times or 22/30, if we count "12 Years A Slave" in 2013.
The contender here:
Alfonso Cuaron - Won the Globe and Critics Choice.
Peter Farrelly - GB won the PGA.
Spike Lee - Nominated for the BAFTA, and his film is the ONLY Best Picture nominee with PGA, DGA, SAGE, and directing, writing, and editing nominations.
Does anybody here think another director will win the DGA, besides Cuaron?
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Post by stephen on Jan 26, 2019 0:12:02 GMT
I think Spike is the only one who can challenge Alfonso, and even then, if he were going to, he already would've done so.
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Post by quetee on Jan 26, 2019 0:19:12 GMT
Well, I'm team Spike.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 26, 2019 0:24:30 GMT
I think Spike is the only one who can challenge Alfonso, and even then, if he were going to, he already would've done so. Lee wins here, and BlacKkKlansman is the instant favorite to win Best Picture and Director. The jury is still out on how the industry feels about Roma. Yes, it scored two acting nominations, but it also lost out on an editing nomination.
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Post by quetee on Jan 26, 2019 0:33:54 GMT
I think Spike is the only one who can challenge Alfonso, and even then, if he were going to, he already would've done so. Lee wins here, and BlacKkKlansman is the instant favorite to win Best Picture and Director. The jury is still out on how the industry feels about Roma. Yes, it scored two acting nominations, but it also lost out on an editing nomination. had amazon released it then Roma would not have uphill battle.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 26, 2019 0:38:09 GMT
He has no competition here - like you'd need something far more overtly artistic to challenge him on a tech level and there just isn't anything like that this year in this field. The first few minutes of Roma literally top the directing of all the others in total and Roma then tops itself even with one directorial tour de force sequence after another...........and a cohesion of style and content which the rest of the nominees don't have either.
This isn't a race to me.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 26, 2019 0:40:58 GMT
I think Spike is the only one who can challenge Alfonso, and even then, if he were going to, he already would've done so. Lee wins here, and BlacKkKlansman is the instant favorite to win Best Picture and Director. The jury is still out on how the industry feels about Roma. Yes, it scored two acting nominations, but it also lost out on an editing nomination. I think ten nominations means that the jury is not out anymore.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 26, 2019 0:52:28 GMT
I think ten nominations means that the jury is not out anymore. None of those 10 included Best Film Editing. That's a huge loss. We know the industry liked the film a lot. It scored PGA, DGA, WGA, and 10 Oscar nominations. But does the industry feel it's the best movie of the year?
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 26, 2019 0:55:22 GMT
He has no competition here - like you'd need something far more overtly artistic to challenge him on a tech level and there just isn't anything like that this year in this field. The first few minutes of Roma literally top the directing of all the others in total and Roma then tops itself even with one directorial tour de force sequence after another...........and a cohesion of style and content which the rest of the nominees don't have either. This isn't a race to me. Right. Showing water going into the drain is the best thing we have seen all year long. What's next? Admiring paint drying or watching the grass grow? Cuaron without a doubt is the favorite to win, but I don't think he's a lock here.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 26, 2019 1:07:05 GMT
He has no competition here - like you'd need something far more overtly artistic to challenge him on a tech level and there just isn't anything like that this year in this field. The first few minutes of Roma literally top the directing of all the others in total and Roma then tops itself even with one directorial tour de force sequence after another...........and a cohesion of style and content which the rest of the nominees don't have either. This isn't a race to me. Right. Showing water going into the drain is the best thing we have seen all year long. What's next? Admiring paint drying or watching the grass grow? Cuaron without a doubt is the favorite to win, but I don't think he's a lock here. Well, look I'm not going to argue the merits of the film with you, there's a Roma thread for that where I've listed what he does in that great film.........but regardless I'd say this is the lock of all locks - maybe if Lanthimos was here he'd provide a run (doubt it, but at least he'd have the conception and technical angles present in his film to make a case) but the other 4 here don't have an argument from this angle to compete.
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Post by quetee on Jan 26, 2019 1:20:54 GMT
I think ten nominations means that the jury is not out anymore. None of those 10 included Best Film Editing. That's a huge loss. We know the industry liked the film a lot. It scored PGA, DGA, WGA, and 10 Oscar nominations. But does the industry feel it's the best movie of the year? I guess we. Will find out during secret ballot time. Feels like people are voting to be voting.
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Post by bob-coppola on Jan 26, 2019 2:04:14 GMT
Guys, I know, it's boring when it's january and we already know what's winning BP/BD with a month of advance. I know boredom makes us all think weird stuff, but it's really baffling to me how people are in such deep denial that Roma is winning both BD/BP. It got 10 nods, it's winning BD - it is, if Lee or anyone else were to upstage Cuaron, they would've already done it -, it even got two acting nods that were very surprising and took spots from more famous, hyped and seasoned actresses. I know it missed Editing, but Birdman has already won without Editing nod, and Roma has so much more going on in favor of it that this whole thing just reads to me as overreacting. We have our winner already.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 26, 2019 2:17:08 GMT
Guys, I know, it's boring when it's january and we already know what's winning BP/BD with a month of advance. I know boredom makes us all think weird stuff, but it's really baffling to me how people are in such deep denial that Roma is winning both BD/BP. It got 10 nods, it's winning BD - it is, if Lee or anyone else were to upstage Cuaron, they would've already done it -, it even got two acting nods that were very surprising and took spots from more famous, hyped and seasoned actresses . I know it missed Editing, but Birdman has already won without Editing nod, and Roma has so much more going on in favor of it that this whole thing just reads to me as overreacting. We have our winner already. The facts still remain: Since 2000, only two films have won Best Picture without directing, writing, and editing nominations. They were Argo and Birdman. Both films won the PGA, DGA, and SAGE. Roma didn't win the PGA and failed to score a SAGE. In other words, Roma has problems on the nomination and Guild side of the spectrum. I am not saying Roma will not win Best Picture, but it's far from a forgone conclusion. Personally, I think it is going to be either Roma, Green Book, or BlacKkKlansman. Obviously, we need to see what the WGA, DGA, and SAG awards have to say, as well as the BAFTA. If Roma was such a shoo-in, why didn't it win the PGA? Birdman lacked an editing nomination, but it swept the big three Guild awards.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2019 4:46:24 GMT
oooh boy you really don't want roma to win do you
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 26, 2019 4:49:26 GMT
I think ten nominations means that the jury is not out anymore. None of those 10 included Best Film Editing. That's a huge loss. We know the industry liked the film a lot. It scored PGA, DGA, WGA, and 10 Oscar nominations. But does the industry feel it's the best movie of the year? A missed editing nod is WAY less significant than two actors who weren’t getting in anywhere else getting in here. The acting branch of the Academy is about 5 times bigger than the editing branch. Both the sound and directing branches are about twice the size of the editing branch each.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 26, 2019 4:53:42 GMT
Guys, I know, it's boring when it's january and we already know what's winning BP/BD with a month of advance. I know boredom makes us all think weird stuff, but it's really baffling to me how people are in such deep denial that Roma is winning both BD/BP. It got 10 nods, it's winning BD - it is, if Lee or anyone else were to upstage Cuaron, they would've already done it -, it even got two acting nods that were very surprising and took spots from more famous, hyped and seasoned actresses . I know it missed Editing, but Birdman has already won without Editing nod, and Roma has so much more going on in favor of it that this whole thing just reads to me as overreacting. We have our winner already. The facts still remain: Since 2000, only two films have won Best Picture without directing, writing, and editing nominations. They were Argo and Birdman. Both films won the PGA, DGA, and SAGE. Roma didn't win the PGA and failed to score a SAGE. In other words, Roma has problems on the nomination and Guild side of the spectrum. I am not saying Roma will not win Best Picture, but it's far from a forgone conclusion. Personally, I think it is going to be either Roma, Green Book, or BlacKkKlansman. Obviously, we need to see what the WGA, DGA, and SAG awards have to say, as well as the BAFTA. If Roma was such a shoo-in, why didn't it win the PGA? Birdman lacked an editing nomination, but it swept the big three Guild awards. Stats people need to chill. Did the last 3 years teach you nothing? Things have changed now. Also how can you harp about Editing stats and ignore the fact that Greenbook missed director? I don’t think Roma is a lock but I just think both the editing and the Netflix arguement are just silly.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 26, 2019 4:58:15 GMT
Guys, I know, it's boring when it's january and we already know what's winning BP/BD with a month of advance. I know boredom makes us all think weird stuff, but it's really baffling to me how people are in such deep denial that Roma is winning both BD/BP. It got 10 nods, it's winning BD - it is, if Lee or anyone else were to upstage Cuaron, they would've already done it -, it even got two acting nods that were very surprising and took spots from more famous, hyped and seasoned actresses. I know it missed Editing, but Birdman has already won without Editing nod, and Roma has so much more going on in favor of it that this whole thing just reads to me as overreacting. We have our winner already. It’s nowhere near the lock for BP you claim it to be. There is more of a case for BlacKKKlansman being the favorite imo. And while I’d put them behind Roma, Green Book and A Star is Born are still threats to upset.
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Post by stephen on Jan 26, 2019 5:36:33 GMT
I think ten nominations means that the jury is not out anymore. None of those 10 included Best Film Editing. That's a huge loss. We know the industry liked the film a lot. It scored PGA, DGA, WGA, and 10 Oscar nominations. But does the industry feel it's the best movie of the year? It's not that much of a loss, as proven by Birdman. The editing branch almost always goes for flashier, snazzier fare, and Roma is slow and stately.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 26, 2019 8:59:57 GMT
The facts still remain: Since 2000, only two films have won Best Picture without directing, writing, and editing nominations. They were Argo and Birdman. Both films won the PGA, DGA, and SAGE. Roma didn't win the PGA and failed to score a SAGE. In other words, Roma has problems on the nomination and Guild side of the spectrum. I am not saying Roma will not win Best Picture, but it's far from a forgone conclusion. Personally, I think it is going to be either Roma, Green Book, or BlacKkKlansman. Obviously, we need to see what the WGA, DGA, and SAG awards have to say, as well as the BAFTA. If Roma was such a shoo-in, why didn't it win the PGA? Birdman lacked an editing nomination, but it swept the big three Guild awards. Stats people need to chill. Did the last 3 years teach you nothing? Things have changed now. Also how can you harp about Editing stats and ignore the fact that Greenbook missed director? I don’t think Roma is a lock but I just think both the editing and the Netflix arguement are just silly. I am confused here. TSOW, Moonlight, and Spotlight were all nominated for director, writing, and editing. Moonlight and Spotlight were nominated for all the major guilds. Their so-called favorite were not. LLL was missing a SAGE nomination. The Revenant was missing a SAGE and WGA (it was eligible) nomination. Three Billboards was missing a directing nomination. Yes, GB missed out on a Directing nomination and SAGE nomination. That is a big problem too.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 26, 2019 9:07:03 GMT
None of those 10 included Best Film Editing. That's a huge loss. We know the industry liked the film a lot. It scored PGA, DGA, WGA, and 10 Oscar nominations. But does the industry feel it's the best movie of the year? A missed editing nod is WAY less significant than two actors who weren’t getting in anywhere else getting in here. The acting branch of the Academy is about 5 times bigger than the editing branch. Both the sound and directing branches are about twice the size of the editing branch each. How is a film is edited matters. It is one of the major things which makes a movie good or bad. The editing stat is part of the package. You cannot logically escape that reality. I remember back in 2005/2006, Brokeback Mountain missed out on an editing nomination, and when people pointed out about how most Best Picture nominees get nominated for director, screenplay, and editing, these people were dismissed as crazy and were under the belief of "well stats break every year". It turns out lacking an editing nomination killed BBM's chances.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 26, 2019 9:14:04 GMT
None of those 10 included Best Film Editing. That's a huge loss. We know the industry liked the film a lot. It scored PGA, DGA, WGA, and 10 Oscar nominations. But does the industry feel it's the best movie of the year? It's not that much of a loss, as proven by Birdman. The editing branch almost always goes for flashier, snazzier fare, and Roma is slow and stately. It's a huge loss. Ditto for Green Book for directing. Roma was nominated at the ACE, Critics Choice, and BAFTA for editing, but never got the Oscar nomination. That's a big loss. No way around it. You cannot really point to Birdman, because as pointed out OVER and OVER again, Birdman won the PGA, DGA, and SAGE. It's under my belief, you win the PGA, DGA, SAGE, and WGA, your Best Picture chances go up, and are in the finalist list.
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Jan 26, 2019 12:55:43 GMT
Yes
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 26, 2019 16:48:21 GMT
Stats people need to chill. Did the last 3 years teach you nothing? Things have changed now. Also how can you harp about Editing stats and ignore the fact that Greenbook missed director? I don’t think Roma is a lock but I just think both the editing and the Netflix arguement are just silly. I am confused here. TSOW, Moonlight, and Spotlight were all nominated for director, writing, and editing. Moonlight and Spotlight were nominated for all the major guilds. Their so-called favorite were not. LLL was missing a SAGE nomination. The Revenant was missing a SAGE and WGA (it was eligible) nomination. Three Billboards was missing a directing nomination. Yes, GB missed out on a Directing nomination and SAGE nomination. That is a big problem too. Shape of Water won without getting nominated for SAG, Revenant and La La Land lost despite winning PG, DGA and BAFTA. Look up how many times that has happened. They were both statistical favorite. You seem to only care about one stat. Most likely because you don’t like Roma and this is the one that goes against Roma.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 26, 2019 16:50:34 GMT
A missed editing nod is WAY less significant than two actors who weren’t getting in anywhere else getting in here. The acting branch of the Academy is about 5 times bigger than the editing branch. Both the sound and directing branches are about twice the size of the editing branch each. How is a film is edited matters. It is one of the major things which makes a movie good or bad. The editing stat is part of the package. You cannot logically escape that reality. I remember back in 2005/2006, Brokeback Mountain missed out on an editing nomination, and when people pointed out about how most Best Picture nominees get nominated for director, screenplay, and editing, these people were dismissed as crazy and were under the belief of "well stats break every year". It turns out lacking an editing nomination killed BBM's chances. Homophobia killed BBM chances. You are way too hung up on this. Not really my problem though so good luck with that.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Jan 26, 2019 18:52:14 GMT
Roma's lack of editing nom is a non-story. Roma doesn't have particularly showy editing. That's all there is to it... it doesn't mean editors hate the film.
The story here is that Roma got TWO major acting nominations (one of them completely out of nowhere), indicating BIG support from the acting branch. Another story: it's the first foreign film in history to lead the nomination tally.
Just when you think Roma peaked this awards season, it surprises some more...
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