Critics' Choice Predictions Thread

Whatever they think the Oscars are going to do.

Sure, why not?

Best Picture: Roma
I think it's pretty comfortably between this and A Star is Born. If these awards ever actually reflected critical opinion, then I'd be far more confident picking Roma. But since they're really only intent on aligning with industry opinion, it's pretty up-in-the-air. Ultimately, I think SAG is going to be A Star is Born's one place to shine and pick up steam. Roma is still my Best Picture pick at this point, so I think it scores this precursor. It feels that it has more working in its favor at this point. But if A Star is Born wins here, as it very well could, it may be time to start taking its bounceback seriously. 
Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Spike or even Cooper *might* be a threat, but, yeah -- Alfonso is gonna sweep this category all season, I have a feeling. 
Best Actor: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Actress: Glenn Close, The Wife
It'd be far more up-in-the-air if Colman weren't nominated elsewhere. But I think they'll be perfectly content with giving Olivia the Comedy award, and recognizing Glenn here. 
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Best Supporting Actress: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Young Actor/Actress: Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Best Acting Ensemble: Black Panther
This is kind of an interesting line-up as it shares only two common nominees with SAG ... one of which I happen to be picking for the win here. Obviously not counting out The Favourite here, and if I'm being honest I'd say all five have a shot at winning, but Black Panther has gotten a lot of notices here from critics groups and that SAG nomination really helps its chances. (Still, I think A Star is Born takes the category at SAG itself.)
Best Original Screenplay: The Favourite
Green Book shouldn't be counted out after the support it got from HFPA, and I also think a spoiler win from something like A Quiet Place or even Eighth Grade is well within the realm of possibility, but I still consider The Favourite the frontrunner in this category until proven otherwise.
Best Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman
I'll be rooting for Jenkins and I think he's got a shot, but I'm anticipating that Klansman dominates this category all the way to the end. 
Best Cinematography: Roma
Best Production Design: Black Panther
Best Editing: First Man
I've basically done a 360 on my prediction in this category. I had Cross pegged down as a frontrunner most of the year, then after seeing First Man I've cycled through a bunch of different picks here from Widows, Roma, even BlacKkKlansman -- but I've returned to First Man as my predicted frontrunner. It's a strange category to predict this year, as there's nothing terribly flashy in contention, other than BlacKkKlansman and to some extent Vice, yet neither film has been especially praised for that aspect, nor are either tech juggernauts in general which usually helps a great deal in this category. So while First Man isn't terribly flashy with its editing, it's still very confident & efficient work. That, plus this category almost always goes to something with at least a little bit of action to it, and the film is a real threat in a number of other technical categories. It also got a nomination from ACE despite not getting much Guild love or being considered much of an awards contender. So, yeah, I'm backing this horse. 
Best Costume Design: The Favourite
Best Hair and Makeup: Vice
Best Visual Effects: Black Panther
Last year, BFCA predicted the Oscars exactly with the exception of this category. I think they'll fail to match this year as well. I'm thinking Black Panther takes it here and emerges as the presumed frontrunner, only for First Man to take BAFTA and ultimately the Oscar as well.
Best Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Action Movie: Black Panther
Best Sci-Fi/Horror Movie: A Quiet Place
Best Comedy: The Favourite
Best Actor in a Comedy: Christian Bale, Vice
Best Actress in a Comedy: Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Best Score: First Man
Another category where I think they'll diverge from AMPAS. I still think Beale Street is winning the Oscar, but for some reason I have a hunch that BFCA is gonna be more of a First Man crowd. 
Best Song: "Shallow," A Star is Born
Best Foreign Language Film: Roma

Considering the two often closely align, these are more or less just my current Oscar predictions. Other than the two exceptions I've mentioned, I do think the acting winners will possibly show some divergence. In fact, though I think that group of four (Malek, Close, Ali, King) could very well be our Oscar four, I also think AMPAS could favor a totally different group of four entirely. It'll be tough to tell until SAG. 

BEST PICTURE
Roma

BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuarón – Roma

BEST ACTOR
Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody

BEST ACTRESS
Olivia Colman – The Favourite

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali – Green Book

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Elsie Fisher – Eighth Grade

BEST ENSEMBLE
The Favourite

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Favourite

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BlacKkKlansman

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roma

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Favourite

BEST EDITING
A Star Is Born

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Black Panther

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
Black Panther

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Infinity War

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

BEST ACTION MOVIE
Black Panther

BEST SCI-FI/HORROR MOVIE
Hereditary

BEST COMEDY
The Favourite

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Christian Bale – Vice

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns

BEST SCORE
Black Panther

BEST SONG
"Shallow" – A Star Is Born

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Roma