If not Blunt for the fifth spot then who?

Joanna Kulig.She truly deserves it.

I have no idea. 

Aparicio makes some sense in their will be a lot of passion for Roma, and that can translate into voters putting down other aspects of a film first because they just vote for it everywhere. On the other hand, nominees like Aparicio who make it in without any precursor support are the big critics' winner and/or a respected veteran. I don't want to rule her out because the Academy does like doing those surprise nominations to be a bit different than all the other gazillion precursors now, but it is concerning to me that as much love as there has been for Roma everywhere else, she doesn't have many mentions even in the newcomer awards where Elsie Fisher has been doing better. Plus, I keep seeing the argument that maybe she'll show up somewhere. Like first it was NYFCC, then it changed to maybe she'll show up at LAFCA, and then it was maybe she'll show up at NSFC. Or with the televised awards, "the Globes have more spots," "SAG loves Netflix and they sent out fancy screeners," or "she can totally show up at BAFTA because McCarthy can miss." It just feels like she should have done better, if passion for the film was supposed to spill over onto her too. 

Blunt has had a pretty good year. Mary Poppins Returns wasn't the enormous hit that it was expected to be, but it's doing fine considering that Disney overestimated the nostalgia factor for the original. It also missed some guilds and she missed BAFTA when I expected that they would really love the film. Usually roles like hers don't get nominated, but she still got in at SAG despite that even over SAG favorite Viola Davis. I think it also works in Blunt's favor that the alternatives don't seem that strong. Davis hit BAFTA, but she hasn't shown up anywhere else this season, and Widows underperformed with awards so far and at the box office. Kidman and Pike only got the Globe nomination. Collette won a lot of critics' awards but not the top 3, and A24 has barely done any campaigning for her. Of course, Aparicio only got in at the Critics' Choice where they nominated 7 actresses.  

Aparicio.

It's still Aparicio.

No clue. Aparicio makes sense only of there's this enormous love for "Roma" which is entirely possible but the confidence with which some folks are predicting her is baffling to me as she couldn't manage to hit any important precursor apart from BFCA. Even the critics didn't really support her.

I suppose we might take a closer look at that Viola Davis nomination at the BAFTAs but "Widows" seems pretty dead overall. Collette is not making it imo - no big nominations plus the movie is not AMPAS-friendly at all. I think someone like Kidman can even pop up here randomly.

I guess I'll say Aparicio. But...even despite missing the BAFTA, snubbing Blunt here doesn't make much sense with her banner year. Those SAG noms suggest that there is support for her among the peers and I read that the "Mary Poppins Returns" team is doing a big Academy event for the movie which Sophia Loren (!) will host. That's playing it real.

Of the contenders who have a shot, I think and hope for Yalitza Aparicio.

In my dream (but delusional) world, Toni Collette gets it.

Kidman, but I don't think Blunt has anything to worry about.

Nobody else has stepped up so I'm going back to Davis.