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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 7, 2019 14:21:41 GMT
That's all very true, but all of those performances save for Moore and arguably Plummer had films that actually overperformed with nominations. In the case of Plummer, his film still got a screenplay nod. And in Moore's case, she swept the field. The Wife has shown zero life outside of Close, and while it's clear that her star power has been able to get her this far with an extremely weak vehicle (and kudos to her for that), I'd feel a lot more confident in her if I felt like her film had a chance to break in somewhere else. Even The Iron Lady, a rickety-ass film, still won two Oscars. Meanwhile, you've got Olivia Colman who has been the critical favorite of her category (slightly over Collette, but Colman does lead the pack in total wins), who likely has the British bloc, who has been charming the pants off everyone on the awards circuit and who took home a Globe as well, whose campaign is just now ramping up. FSL had to know this would happen and anticipate accordingly. Close may very well have lapped Gaga at this point, but I could still see something happen at SAG where Gaga gets enough AFTRA love that she winds up sneaking the win there (and boy, imagine that race!) and if Colman wins BAFTA (it feels very much like they want their hometown girl to go the distance), well, then we've got a real race. If these awards were being handed out in a closer span of time, I'd feel much more confident in a streak to the end for either Close or Colman, but I'm not so sure now. But what I am sure of is this: the race is not over, no one has won it all, and there's still the potential of surprises to be had. It's very interesting that none of the acting categories seem to be locked in at this stage, and if one is, it's the one with the SAG snub. Julianne Moore didn't really sweep tbh, though she did do a lot better in relation to Glenn Close this year. As far as the critics awards went Marion Cotillard scored more wins. She did well enough but the the only major ones she won were NBR and Chicago. New York, Boston and NSFC all went for Cotillard and Arquette got LA (ew). That's not exactly sweeping.
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Post by ingmarhepburn on Jan 7, 2019 15:31:23 GMT
Yes, but we can't ignore the pattern that the Academy has followed more or less since 2004, which is awarding actors/actresses who are nominated for the (insert number equal to or higher than 4) time for lesser performances simply because they are overdue. It started with Morgan Freeman in Million Dollar Baby, then there was Kate Winslet for The Reader, Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart, Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady (yes, she was overdue; she had won twice, but she also had lost twelve times), Julianne Moore for Still Alice and Leonardo SiCaprio for The Revenant. Perhaps we could also include Christopher Plummer and Gary Oldman, who were considered overdue despite having only one or two nominations to their credit. It's not that I care too much about who wins or who loses... I haven't seen The Favourite yet (it is released in my country only in a month from now), and I have seen The Wife but Close isn't my win. I just feel that they won't let the opportunity of awarding her escape this time. That's all very true, but all of those performances save for Moore and arguably Plummer had films that actually overperformed with nominations. In the case of Plummer, his film still got a screenplay nod. And in Moore's case, she swept the field. The Wife has shown zero life outside of Close, and while it's clear that her star power has been able to get her this far with an extremely weak vehicle (and kudos to her for that), I'd feel a lot more confident in her if I felt like her film had a chance to break in somewhere else. Even The Iron Lady, a rickety-ass film, still won two Oscars. Meanwhile, you've got Olivia Colman who has been the critical favorite of her category (slightly over Collette, but Colman does lead the pack in total wins), who likely has the British bloc, who has been charming the pants off everyone on the awards circuit and who took home a Globe as well, whose campaign is just now ramping up. FSL had to know this would happen and anticipate accordingly. Close may very well have lapped Gaga at this point, but I could still see something happen at SAG where Gaga gets enough AFTRA love that she winds up sneaking the win there (and boy, imagine that race!) and if Colman wins BAFTA (it feels very much like they want their hometown girl to go the distance), well, then we've got a real race. If these awards were being handed out in a closer span of time, I'd feel much more confident in a streak to the end for either Close or Colman, but I'm not so sure now. But what I am sure of is this: the race is not over, no one has won it all, and there's still the potential of surprises to be had. It's very interesting that none of the acting categories seem to be locked in at this stage, and if one is, it's the one with the SAG snub. Let's wait and see. I agree with you that Gaga winning the SAG would make things more interesting, though.
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Post by Pavan on Jan 7, 2019 16:08:44 GMT
Damn, I missed the presentation. Decent set of winners with the exception of Bohemian Rhapsody winning BP in the drama category. Happy for my girl Rachel Brosnahan
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rhodoraonline
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Your Generosity Hides Something Dirtier and Meaner
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Post by rhodoraonline on Jan 7, 2019 19:12:08 GMT
To all those people rightly pointing out the non-awarded films have now the no backlash advantage:
I think, ASIB not getting anything GG other than Shallow IS the backlash.
I'm predicting similar backlashes in other ceremonies unless a major shakeup happens.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 7, 2019 20:17:56 GMT
What is Carol Burnett award? the Cecil B. Demille award but for TV. Surprised they didn't do something like this sooner since the Globes are half-TV.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 7, 2019 20:29:04 GMT
I think, ASIB not getting anything GG other than Shallow IS the backlash. Agree 100% A Star Is Born has consistently underwhelmed with the critics, I think the fact that there wasn't even enough love for it at the Globes where it was the predicted frontrunner in multiple categories is damning. It never had much momentum with the critics so it needed last night to give it a boost and that didn't happen. If it doesn't win anything at SAG I think we can write it off as a real contender.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 7, 2019 20:33:43 GMT
Critics don't vote and it is leading the guilds so far. Writing it off is silly
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Jan 7, 2019 21:40:39 GMT
I’m pretty sure A Star Is Born losing Best Picture at the Globes is the best thing that could happen to the film.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 8, 2019 0:36:58 GMT
So the only thing I’ll add at this point is that Christian Bale’s speech was funnier than anything Andy Samberg said all night.
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Jan 8, 2019 8:49:07 GMT
So the only thing I’ll add at this point is that Christian Bale’s speech was funnier than anything Andy Samberg said all night. Right.
They should have had him host on his own, and let him flow properly. His opening monologue when he hosted the Independent Spirit Awards in 2013, was one of the best of any awards I've seen.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2019 8:50:27 GMT
lol dead.
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