Nicole Kidman in Destroyer: In or Out?

85% out. In order of likelihood for a nomination, I'd rank the category as:

1. Gaga
2. Colman
3. Blunt
4. McCarthy
5. Close
6. Aparicio
7. Pike
8. Collette
9. Kidman
10. Fisher

I'm really not feeling it at all, TBH. Collette is much more of a passion pick, Aparicio has a Best Picture frontrunner, and Pike could easily pull off a BAFTA nomination, which would really be a good sign for her case. Kidman's film is just underseen and the narrative is not there for her as much as some of us had initially thought. I could see her sneaking in Supporting, buoyed by the goodwill from her banner year, but even that is getting more and more unlikely due to the buzz for Boy Erased dwindling so quickly after its release.

She's so out.

She's not completely out. She's hanging by a thread though. She's fighting for a 5th spot as a lone nominee with a few other actresses. Kidman and Kusama have been pimping this movie a lot in industry circles, and I've seen Chris Nolan, Edgar Wright among others praise Kidman's performance as iconic.

You got to give the edge to Blunt for the 5th spot now, but I wouldn't be remotely surprised if Kidman or even Pike's name gets read out. Collette is a threat as well, despite nothing at Globes or SAG.

No worries. We all make mistakes and forget stuff

Liz Taylor stayed an A-list celebrity "star" till she died. Interest in her life never waned.As an actress, she was finished by around 39. Kidman will be playing Judi Dench roles when she is 70.

Two completely different levels of talent. Kidman is arguably the only actress to pull off this "actors actor" and "mega celebrity movie star" dichotomy since Ingrid Bergman (probably a more accurate comparison than Taylor). Right now, Kidman can lay claim to being the best actor on the planet, imho. To do that while also being a figure of consistent tabloid scrutiny and interest is highly impressive

True, but what does it really matter in evaluating her staying power as an actress or her work? Kidman retains the celebrity platform she does because she consistently puts out work of substance and is an awards season fixture. Otherwise, she'd just be some has-been with a Country star for a husband.

I've said this before, but Kidman is probably the female equivalent of Marlon Brando, if Brando actually had a serious work ethic. Both highly talented and idiosyncratic performers that have been at times miusunderstood during their careers, but also worshipped. Brando retained a ridiculous level of celebrity exposure till his death, even when his work long stopped meriting it. Kidman puts the work in, non-stop. Without that, she'd wither and fade like a Sharon Stone or Demi Moore (Bullock and Roberts survive on bankability and audience appeal that Kidman doesn't aim for, the occassional Aquaman notwithstanding)

Not at the Oscars, she didn't.

Kidman's an odd duck. She's certainly well-respected by her colleagues (10 SAG nominations) and the Globes like her (14 nominations, 5 wins), but the Oscars rarely seem to bite even when she goes baity. She's won once, but she has missed a lot more than an actress of her stature and catalogue by rights should miss out. If Blanchett or Winslet or Streep had played those characters in those films, they likely would've gotten in. It's something I've always found myself wondering -- does Kidman's popularity with the tabloids and gossip columnists somehow work against her with the Academy, like they don't take her as seriously as they should?

As for Destroyer, I think she's got a lot more working against her than for her at the moment. She has her champions, but she also has a floundering studio, an unflinching and unfriendly film that is doing rather poorly at the box-office right now, in a category that is absolutely packed to the brim with strong competitors. Kidman would need BAFTA (another organization that, like the Academy, tends to overlook her more often than not) and potentially need someone to fall by the wayside at the right time while she gains a late-game surge. I don't know if Annapurna can make that happen, not with the way things are going for them. I don't think she's going to get nominated for it, but I've seen stranger things and all it takes is the right amount of passion votes at the right time to spoil the party.

Yes, Streep is indeed an outlier but if she had played Erin Bell or the mother in Boy Erased, she'd already be locked and loaded for a nomination, even with Annapurna floundering. It speaks to her unparalleled respect in the industry (and, indeed, perhaps a laziness of the average voter to go, "Oh, Meryl has a new film out? Fuck it, let's pencil her in for a slot already"), but I still maintain that if Winslet and especially Blanchett had played those roles as well, we'd be feeling much more confident in their chances because of their previous Academy profile. Kidman, who by rights should enjoy the same respect as those two, for whatever reason can't seem to secure herself even when she does middlebrow, Academy-friendly works. I do think a large part of that might be that she's been unlucky in her competition in those years (this year is stacked to the brim in both categories).

None of this has any bearing on Kidman's talents as an actress or her performances this year. But Kidman tends to go through long droughts with the Academy. I had hoped Lion (my favorite nominated performance of hers) would be a sign of the tide turning in her favor again, but I think she would've been better served to sit this year out for Destroyer and have it be pushed in 2019, where the competition looks a bit thinner and perhaps she could kickstart a narrative on more even footing (if, that is, Annapurna manages to survive this year).

Well I hope Kidman does edge out Blunt there who I really wanna see acknowledged for A Quiet Place.

Blunt was good in MP but not nom-worthy if u ask me.

Really looking fwd to Destroyer. Glad that year is way behind where she was being ridiculed on IMDb board for that Grace Kelly thing.

Winslet only gets nominated with strong movies (in Academy terms). Films that get multiple nominations elsewhere. While decently acclaimed, neither Boy Erased nor Destroyer appear to have realistic chances of nominations outside of Kidman (maybe Boy Erased for original song, and even that may be a long shot with the competition this year). So I wouldn"t  say that Winslet would neccesari ly stand much better odds than Kidman for these films, if you actually break down her nomination history.Winslet's movies really do make all the difference for her. Winslet has never gotten in as the lone nominee for her film. Kidman managed it at least once (Rabbit Hole).

Blanchett is the same. She generally gets in with movies that are strong elsewhere. Her only lone nomination came with I'm Not There. A lot of these films Kidman might have  supposedly been "snubbed" for would be requiring her to get a lot of lone nominations (Paperboy, Birth, Dogville,  Beguiled, Killing Of A Sacred Deer, Stoker, Margot At The Wedding and many more), which Winslet can't do at all, and Blanchett has done as many times as Kidman. So it's hard to say that they are neccesarily more respected, as they don't just get in by themselves. Winslet and Blanchett literally make movies that the Academy respond to better. It's a subtle but key difference.

If we are talking after she made her Academy breakthrough, Kidman's only true arguable "snub" was for Cold Mountain, a film that was pretty strong with the Academy. And I don't think that perfromance demanded a nomination, so it wasn't an egregious snub either. And even Blanchett has misses for films that are otherwise strong with AMPAS (The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button, Babel, LOTR Trilogy....basically, the type of things Streep would get in for easily)

Kidman hardly does many films that have been strong with AMPAS, and when she has (at least after 2000), she's usually gotten in if her performance is acclaimed (Moulin Rouge, The Hours, Lion). So I genuinely think we are overthinking this "respect" thing with AMPAS. She'd have to be the Queen Of Lone Nominees to get in for a lot of her work, and the fact that she has more lone nominations than Winslet and as many as Blanchett tells it's own story.

I saw the film last week. She's not getting in.

At least she won an Oscar. You've never even been nominated 😋