flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Oct 30, 2018 3:53:32 GMT
Another thing that I didn't say in my previous post because I had writen too much already is that, while the Bolsonaro/Trump comparisons make sense, they are also simplistic. Trump is a political novice that was essentially handed a dream scenario: control of the Congress, the courts and a propaganda machine in Fox News running 24/7. Any dissident in his party can simply be eliminated by supporting another candidate in the Republican primary, and prosecutors can be fired by the president.
Meanwhile, while not only there's not a single member of the Brazilian Supreme Court that can be described as a conservative, let alone someone far-right wing like Thomas or Scalia, Bolsonaro has to deal with 23(!) parties in the Senate and 30(!!)in the House of Representatives. While that number will increase because of politicians changing parties, his PSL has only 6 senators (out of 81) and 52 representatives (out of 513).
While there's a significant number of those that are conservative, some far right-wing, and many (probably the majority of Congress) that have no ideology and will support anyone that is in power, they are not all necessarily loyal to Bolsonaro or his party. And considering that pretty much everyone, with a few exceptions, that became too associated with Dilma Rousseff or Temer got hammered in this year's elections, if Bolsonaro loses too much popularity, he risks becoming a lame duck.
Even in his party itself, there's no primaries for Congress positions (and parties rarely adopt them for the Executive branch), and there's elections only every 4 years anyway (8 for Senate).
Also, not only there isn't a Fox News type of company in Brazil (and thank God for that!), the prosecutor's office (called Ministério Público) is structured very differently than in the US, being essentially a 4th power: It's members are not appointed, but enter via (extremely hard) admission exams, and have the same constitutional protections of judges- cannot be fired until a conviction that cannot be appealed, after 2 years in the post, can't be removed from the city they are working without justification, cannot be arrested by a judge, only a Federal (assuming they're a federal prosecutor) Tribunal.
Not only that, even the Prosecutor General (who is appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate) has limited power to stop investigations- if a federal prosecutor is, say, investigating friends of the president, a corrupt PG could only do so much to stop him.
So, even if Bolsonaro tried to implement measures that are harmful to women or black populations (which I don't think he would), or gays and transgender people (which I wouldn't be surprised at all if he did), he faces both the MP and Judiciary that are not only very independent, but in some cases even hostile to his views.
Brazil's judicial review system also allows to not only laws and acts of the government be declared unconstitutional by any judge, like the US, but also to be challenged directly in the Supreme Court by a number of different people or institutions, including any political party that has representation in Congress (and there's 30 of those).
Finally, Bolsonaro has more impulse control than Trump (not that this is any achievement) by virtue of being in politics for a long time and not being a spoiled brat whose daddy always came running to save him when he got broke; he's less likely to start a diplomatic crisis out of a 1am tweet, or, you know, grab women by their pussy.
So, I think he will not be a worse-case scenario like Trump, much less a threat to democracy, just another one in a line of terrible presidents.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Oct 30, 2018 3:59:14 GMT
flasuss I'd say you're overestimating what Bolsonaro actually brought to the table in terms of concrete propositions and underestimating the impact that bigotry and identity politics played in determining his meteoric success (his extreme, meme-ready trash rhetoric is precisely why he blew up online and was able to gain more and more space in the public discourse over the past few years), but I'll agree that the entire campaign was horribly botched by PT. Lula essentially handed him the presidency on a silver platter, and anyone who was paying the slightest bit of attention to the race knew a year in advance how this would play out. Actively preventing any non-Lula alternatives from truly gaining traction in a way that would allow them to unify the left and the center meant PT went all-in on a losing hand. It shaped the election into a dispute between two widely reviled candidates, neither of which was in any way ideal (Haddad was far from my first choice too), and essentially turned it into a referendum on which of the two finalists was less furiously hated, even more so than the past few presidential elections. Remove the scorching anti-PT sentiment from the equation and Bolsonaro doesn't get anywhere near as much centrist support as he was able to amass; present undecided voters with a reasonable, grounded alternative that has neither his extremism nor PT's scandal-ridden stench and there's a feasible chance we actually get a constructive debate going, with a potentially different outcome at the polls. But then again, that's simply expecting too much.
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Post by wilcinema on Oct 30, 2018 11:32:03 GMT
I have a couple friends in Brazil who told me that Grindr (a gay dating app) is being flooded by fascists who threaten them to meet them and kill them.
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Post by jimmalone on Oct 30, 2018 12:35:57 GMT
It's the next case of a country to fall ill by this epidemic of populism and nationalism. Which is a shame, cause I like Brazil a lot and hope it would get finally a better future. It suffers so many years from corruption, violence and other problems, but if the people in this country hope that this could be a step in the right direction they will be highly disappointed.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Oct 30, 2018 13:57:47 GMT
flasuss I'd say you're overestimating what Bolsonaro actually brought to the table in terms of concrete propositions and underestimating the impact that bigotry and identity politics played in determining his meteoric success (his extreme, meme-ready trash rhetoric is precisely why he blew up online and was able to gain more and more space in the public discourse over the past few years), but I'll agree that the entire campaign was horribly botched by PT. Lula essentially handed him the presidency on a silver platter, and anyone who was paying the slightest bit of attention to the race knew a year in advance how this would play out. Actively preventing any non-Lula alternatives from truly gaining traction in a way that would allow them to unify the left and the center meant PT went all-in on a losing hand. It shaped the election into a dispute between two widely reviled candidates, neither of which was in any way ideal (Haddad was far from my first choice too), and essentially turned it into a referendum on which of the two finalists was less furiously hated, even more so than the past few presidential elections. Remove the scorching anti-PT sentiment from the equation and Bolsonaro doesn't get anywhere near as much centrist support as he was able to amass; present undecided voters with a reasonable, grounded alternative that has neither his extremism nor PT's scandal-ridden stench and there's a feasible chance we actually get a constructive debate going, with a potentially different outcome at the polls. But then again, that's simply expecting too much. Oh, I don't think Bolsonaro brought pretty much anything in terms of concrete propositions to the table, except in the Economy, which he did by openly admitting he didn't know much about the issue and delegating it to his chief economic officer Paulo Guedes. But he was able to identify the issues people were mostly concerned about- crime and corruption- and begun campaigning on those, which worked even though he didn't offer a lot of ideas, simply being tough on both of them.
And I agree that his bigotry and identity politics played a major role in him getting noticed- I live in Rio and saw him nearly QUADRUPLE the number of votes for Congress he had between 2010 and 2014 by smoving from "Guy that is a representative to the military and police officers in Congress" to "Guy that is pretty much Brazil's main tea-party type of politician". But doing that alone wouldn't be enough to get him near the presidency.
Also, stating that Brazil didn't have a nationwide conservative political leader since maybe Lacerda doesn't mean I think they should be compared- for all his faults, Carlos Lacerda was a very intelligent man and arguably Rio's best governor ever- just that Bolsonaro saw a political vacuum and knew he could exploit it.
I also don't think that Bolsonaro being more self-restrained than Trump is an indication of character, but rather (besides the fact that he was not a trust-fund spoiled brat) of political savvy- I was surprised that nearly all the controversy during the campaign didn't came from stuff he said during it, but rather from his past or from his allies, like his dumbass younger son and dumbass VP. On that front, the lunatic that nearly killed him ended up doing him a favor by making it impossible from him to go to rallies or give press conferences, situations in which it would be easier for him to slip up, while also allowing his allies to play him off like a martyr.
And in another problem that, once again, goes back to Lula, the left can't even claim (unlike in the US) that the right is the only one inciting hate when Lula spent years and years dividing the country in "Us vs Them" speeches, the "People vs the Elites" (elites being anyone that opposes Lula) and claiming anyone that opposed him was a member of the "elites" that was "jealous that poor people can now travel in airplanes" or non-sense like this, attacking the press and wanting to implement measures of "social" control of it, and openly attacking the Judiciary every time they convicted one of his cronies.
In summary, I think Bolsonaro got elected in part by being much more politically-savvy and good at propaganda than people gave him credit for, but mostly because of a political system that is so broken and corrupt and dominated by such vile pieces of shit- Lula, Temer, Calheiros, Neves, Jucá, etc- that anyone that didn't receive millions of dollars in bribes ends up looking good in comparison.
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Oct 31, 2018 2:11:23 GMT
I know nothing about this guy so I can't comment but I'm 100% positive most of the people on this board commenting about how bad he is and how far right he is actually know nothing about this guy or Brazilian politics.
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Post by stabcaesar on Oct 31, 2018 3:30:26 GMT
I know nothing about this guy so I can't comment but I'm 100% positive most of the people on this board commenting about how bad he is and how far right he is actually know nothing about this guy or Brazilian politics. Evidently a bunch of them are Brazilian so Idk what you're trying to argue here.
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dazed
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Post by dazed on Oct 31, 2018 3:34:10 GMT
I know nothing about this guy so I can't comment but I'm 100% positive most of the people on this board commenting about how bad he is and how far right he is actually know nothing about this guy or Brazilian politics. Nah. He’s pretty fucking far right. Look at all of his quotes and you’d see that within an instant. ”Minorities must fit in or simply disappear.” (talking about how Brazil is a Christian country vs secular) ”If your son acts gay, hit him with leather and he’ll change. I’d rather my son die than be gay.” “I’m in favour of torture, it works.” Pretty sure he said something about how votes change nothing, and that resorting to a civil war is the right way to go. Even knowing that thousands of civilians would die. Hell, he literally even said he’s in favour of a dictatorship. Many people in this thread are from Brazil and a lot of them are saying the same thing.
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cherry68
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Post by cherry68 on Oct 31, 2018 6:37:00 GMT
Many people in this thread are from Brazil and a lot of them are saying the same thing. I actually counted 3 people from Brazil in this thread, and one of them said basically, I don't like the guy, I didn't vote for him, but he won't make a decisive impact on Brazil as his party has very few members in the Parliament, I hope he'll represent a turning point as his campaign costed very few money compared to the leftists that were elected in the past decades and were corrupted.
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Post by MsMovieStar on Oct 31, 2018 9:05:31 GMT
I know nothing about this guy so I can't comment but I'm 100% positive most of the people on this board commenting about how bad he is and how far right he is actually know nothing about this guy or Brazilian politics.
Oh honey, I've watched a couple of Carmen Miranda movies and they looked... crazy and extreme.
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Post by bob-coppola on Oct 31, 2018 15:28:23 GMT
My head aches just to think about the fact I'll have to put up with this imbecile for the next four years, but I just wanna add my (brazilian) voice to the group who's saying he'll be a nightmare to politics in every aspect. I'm not even worried about another dictatorship because I don't believe it's something "doable" in this point of history in a country this big, but the notion that so many racist, misogynistic and homophobe people will feel validated to act on their violent instincts (and we live in a very violent country) now that their rhetoric has elected a president.
And don't even get me started on "the left is corrupt, Bolsonaro is not and he didn't spend much money on his campaign" cause it's bullshit. Bolsonaro's government has already chosen some corrupted (judged so by a federal trial) politicians to be part of the ministries. One of them is even on jail right now: serving an semi-open regime after getting caught asking for bribe, Alberto Fraga will work with Bolsonaro by day and leave to jail by night. Bolsonaro himself is caught in the middle of a corruption scandal for allegedly funding massive fake news on social media during his campaign. He even threatens to boycott the newspaper that exposed this.
He's not anti-establishment as the current government is willingly working with him right now, he's proved to be corrupt and his party is even more corrupt than the Workers Party according to the federal investigations of Lava-Jato. Do yourselves a favor and google an interview with his campaign manager (who also worked with Trump), where he talks about how fake news and the internet won this election, how this was a "lab" to a strategy he'll try to apply in other elections across the globe.
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Oct 31, 2018 17:50:10 GMT
I know nothing about this guy so I can't comment but I'm 100% positive most of the people on this board commenting about how bad he is and how far right he is actually know nothing about this guy or Brazilian politics. Nah. He’s pretty fucking far right. Look at all of his quotes and you’d see that within an instant. ”Minorities must fit in or simply disappear.” (talking about how Brazil is a Christian country vs secular) ”If your son acts gay, hit him with leather and he’ll change. I’d rather my son die than be gay.” “I’m in favour of torture, it works.” Pretty sure he said something about how votes change nothing, and that resorting to a civil war is the right way to go. Even knowing that thousands of civilians would die. Hell, he literally even said he’s in favour of a dictatorship. Many people in this thread are from Brazil and a lot of them are saying the same thing. If he said those things then fuck him. It's not really my point though. My point is about the people here who know nothing about it. Also torture isn't a right wing thing.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Oct 31, 2018 20:52:42 GMT
My head aches just to think about the fact I'll have to put up with this imbecile for the next four years, but I just wanna add my (brazilian) voice to the group who's saying he'll be a nightmare to politics in every aspect. I'm not even worried about another dictatorship because I don't believe it's something "doable" in this point of history in a country this big, but the notion that so many racist, misogynistic and homophobe people will feel validated to act on their violent instincts (and we live in a very violent country) now that their rhetoric has elected a president. And don't even get me started on "the left is corrupt, Bolsonaro is not and he didn't spend much money on his campaign" cause it's bullshit. Bolsonaro's government has already chosen some corrupted (judged so by a federal trial) politicians to be part of the ministries. One of them is even on jail right now: serving an semi-open regime after getting caught asking for bribe, Alberto Fraga will work with Bolsonaro by day and leave to jail by night. Bolsonaro himself is caught in the middle of a corruption scandal for allegedly funding massive fake news on social media during his campaign. He even threatens to boycott the newspaper that exposed this. He's not anti-establishment as the current government is willingly working with him right now, he's proved to be corrupt and his party is even more corrupt than the Workers Party according to the federal investigations of Lava-Jato. Do yourselves a favor and google an interview with his campaign manager (who also worked with Trump), where he talks about how fake news and the internet won this election, how this was a "lab" to a strategy he'll try to apply in other elections across the globe.
Oh, I didn't say Bolsonaro is not corrupt, just stated that the fact that anyone that didn't took millions of dollars in bribes ends up looking good in comparison. That said, Fraga wasn't invited to be a part of his government, that's speculation (without a doubt fueled by Fraga himself)
His former party, PP (not the current one), is deeply corrupt, but Alberto Youseff specifically mentioned him (back in 2014, when he was a minor figure) as the exception of congressman of the party that wasn't a part of the scheme, a fact he and his supporters exploited endlessly.
I also didn't say he's a true anti-establishment candidate- in one of my earlier posts, I specifically mentioned that he did bet (correctly) that a true anti-establishment candidate would never be allowed to run, at least in not in a major party, even though it was clear that this was what the voters wanted. So he gambled that he could look like an outsider next to people like Ciro Gomes (in politics for 35 years, from a family that is in politics since the 19th century), Haddad (hand-picked sucessor puppet of Brazil's dominant political figure of the 21st century) or Geraldo Alckmin (4 times governor of Brazil's largest state), and again he was correct.
Basically, what I meant is that a healthy country and a healthy political system would never have allowed someone like Bolsonaro to survive for so long, let alone to thrive; but he didn't cause the disease (as the left would like to argue), nor he is the cure (as he sold himself).
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Film Socialism
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Post by Film Socialism on Oct 31, 2018 22:10:52 GMT
I know nothing about this guy so I can't comment but I'm 100% positive most of the people on this board commenting about how bad he is and how far right he is actually know nothing about this guy or Brazilian politics. my trans friend in brazil who has had homophobic rhetoric shouted at her every time she's been in public for the past week along with the other shit going down leads me to believe that maybe he is as bad as people are saying
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Post by bob-coppola on Oct 31, 2018 22:25:29 GMT
flasuss I didn't mean to say that to you. In fact, I agree with some points you have brought up. You are right to point that he isn't the root of the disease in brazilian politics: if anything, he's a side effect. I just don't agree when you say he looks like an outsider, as he's in politics for almost 3 decades. Overall, I was just replying to a general conversation that he's "anti" any of those things.
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Post by hugobolso1 on Oct 31, 2018 22:38:27 GMT
“I’m in favour of torture, it works.” That was Bolsonaro or Hillary Clinton?, torture worked extremely well in Afganisthan. American have no clue about socialism, ruins every country they touch, and the consequence is people like Bolsonaro, an autharitary guy who can stop that nihilist society, after years of abuse.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Oct 31, 2018 23:41:11 GMT
flasuss I didn't mean to say that to you. In fact, I agree with some points you have brought up. You are right to point that he isn't the root of the disease in brazilian politics: if anything, he's a side effect. I just don't agree when you say he looks like an outsider, as he's in politics for almost 3 decades. Overall, I was just replying to a general conversation that he's "anti" any of those things. The fact that he was elected shows that most voters, or at least a significant part of them, believed he was an outsider. The fact that he really isn't sadly doesn't matter that much.
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Post by bob-coppola on Oct 31, 2018 23:53:01 GMT
flasuss I didn't mean to say that to you. In fact, I agree with some points you have brought up. You are right to point that he isn't the root of the disease in brazilian politics: if anything, he's a side effect. I just don't agree when you say he looks like an outsider, as he's in politics for almost 3 decades. Overall, I was just replying to a general conversation that he's "anti" any of those things. The fact that he was elected shows that most voters, or at least a significant part of them, believed he was an outsider. The fact that he really isn't sadly doesn't matter that much. Yes, arguing over semantics right now is crying over spilled milk.
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Post by Joaquim on Nov 1, 2018 0:01:00 GMT
I’d say calling him ghe brazillain trump is appropeiate
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tobias
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Post by tobias on Nov 4, 2018 0:52:36 GMT
Unfortunately, pending a gigantic re-branding by saner political ideologies around the world, I don't see the far-right virus being stopped until after their leaders show themselves grossly incompetent and/or their policies spell disaster for their people. Both of those in some form are inevitable (far-right politics are more rhetoric than policy and unsustainable in the long-term as they only exacerbate the inequalities currently underlying global insecurity), but the last time we really had to worry about this on a global scale was WWII. No disenchantment is permanent. The devastation of WWII as a driving force for peace in Europe lasted relatively long but even towards that people are more and more indifferent - though other factors make an all out war unlikely these days, so maybe the disenchantment lasted long enough for globalism to kick in and for many nations (at least in Europe) to demilitarize and for a large part of the public not being willing to fight a war any longer (at least in Europe).
The disenchantment of the far right however lasts far shorter and so far it has only served to normalize them. Look at the republicans. Today Nixon or Eisenhower despite, all the despicable things they did, would be a true blessing. People said Reagan was a dumbass and feared what his presidency might bring, the world didn't collapse, people thought G.W. was an imbecile, the world didn't collapse. Except people were absolutely right and yes, the world did collapse but not like they tell you all at once, but slowly each day society disintegrated. With each year passing conditions became worse. The last time american society was anything close to sane is about 40 years ago. Now you called Bush an imbecile, it took you merely 8 years to find someone who is practically excactly the same (a puppet of the republican establishment), only in a more shiny exhibitionist package and wee bit impulsive and unpredictable (he is probably a bit more educated than Bush but he seems both senile and completely out of bounds with his situation).
If you don't like that example look at Austria. The FPÖ governed for about 5 years in the early 2000s. They besmeared themselves with tons dirt, got into scandals and at the end everyone thought their governing capabilities were jackshit. Took them about 10 years to get back, stronger than before, and if not for Kurz they would have even been the strongest party by a large lead (don't get me wrong, I harshly dislike Kurz but he prevented an FPÖ chancellorship). And Austria has one of the most robust social networks in Europe. The far right does not disenchant itself. It only normalizes itself. The lesson about how to stop fascism has already been learned in the 30's by the US. It was the New Deal. In Germany back then we tried 2 other things. The Communists tried to fight them and the Centre party (right-wing catholics) thought they would disenchant themselves in a coalition. Both things helped immensely in lifting them to power (never get fooled by the DKP, even from a communist perspective they were full of shit, they even cooperated with the nazis on some occasions). What I'm trying to say is that leaving them the spotlight strengthens them, just as fighting them strengthens them (afterall they vallow both in spotlight and in fighting). The only thing that ever stopped them was the most obvious solution: Presenting a believable alternative.
I think the great problem today lies in capitalist media. I mean people called Trump a fascist or the AfD or the FPÖ or whatever, I think all of this is awfully non-saying and I wouldn't even care if they were. The greatest fascist force in our times is by an infinite margin consumerist media and in consumerist media there is no reality, there are only consumeable objects. A real alternative model for society is nothing you can consume, you can only live it. You can consume fighting (which is why it doesn't help, I despise the anti-fascists almost as much as I despise the real thing, even though I'm practically a radical left-winger I see almost no difference between them) and you can consume showmanship. But you need the media (and by media I mean media and not just talking heads on TV or Internet channels) to ever get the power to change anything. But precisely this step is completely paradoxical. The media reinforces the current system and by using it you yourself reinforce it. Further it is immensely corrupting. Analogous to Plato's philosopher king you need a great showman who absolutely despises being a showman.
Let me give some more clarity on what I mean by presenting an alternative. By presenting an alternative I mean that you free yourself from thinking abstractly and start to think materialisticly. You use your time on the media not to talk about your so called "political enemies" but to talk about your vision for the future (which has to be materialisticly viable). You don't even have political enemies any longer, only people that stand in the way of realizing your vision. What I find revealing is how people find the far right so interesting. IMO they are some of the most boring people I've (n)ever met in my life. Try to look at them with a straight face and ask yourself why they are in any way interesting and then look at a guy like Reinhold Messner and ask yourself the same question. This would in theory be the one way in which you could reveal them but I don't see how it's possible. I already think they're a snoozefest, I don't know how I could convince the crazy masses and I think consumerist media makes it in essence impossible.
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CookiesNCream
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Post by CookiesNCream on Nov 6, 2018 5:22:01 GMT
I have friends and relatives out in Brazil, so I guess I could weigh on this event a little. Got in contact with some last week right after the event. I do found the outcome quite disappointing, somewhat unsurprising at the very same time, and the circumstances that lead up to Bolsonaro's election were all messed up. Brazil was going through a rough patch over a controversial corruption that broke out under the last president. No doubt Bolsonaro's a red flag alright who also felt very reminiscent to a certain orangutan and Duterte combined.
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Film Socialism
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Post by Film Socialism on Nov 11, 2018 22:06:31 GMT
“I’m in favour of torture, it works.” That was Bolsonaro or Hillary Clinton?, torture worked extremely well in Afganisthan. American have no clue about socialism, ruins every country they touch, and the consequence is people like Bolsonaro, an autharitary guy who can stop that nihilist society, after years of abuse. lmao pinning socialism as the "look at what you made me do" when reactionaries elect fashies is the worst take in this thread which is saying something
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Nov 12, 2018 15:55:34 GMT
That was Bolsonaro or Hillary Clinton?, torture worked extremely well in Afganisthan. American have no clue about socialism, ruins every country they touch, and the consequence is people like Bolsonaro, an autharitary guy who can stop that nihilist society, after years of abuse. lmao pinning socialism as the "look at what you made me do" when reactionaries elect fashies is the worst take in this thread which is saying something Only an idiot socialist doesn't realize how fascist their socialist agendas really are.
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Film Socialism
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Post by Film Socialism on Nov 12, 2018 17:29:49 GMT
lmao pinning socialism as the "look at what you made me do" when reactionaries elect fashies is the worst take in this thread which is saying something Only an idiot socialist doesn't realize how fascist their socialist agendas really are. many socialist countries are authoritarian and based on an ML model, which is different from fascism in every conceivable way other than them both having strong central powers
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Nov 13, 2018 1:15:58 GMT
Only an idiot socialist doesn't realize how fascist their socialist agendas really are. many socialist countries are authoritarian and based on an ML model, which is different from fascism in every conceivable way other than them both having strong central powers Are you telling me North Korea isn't fascist which is incredibly nationalistic as is Cuba and Venezuela and Zimbabwe? Was Romania under Ceausescu not fascist or Russia? Being forced into camps if they said something against the one party agenda is unbelievably fascist.
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