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Post by tastytomatoes on Oct 1, 2018 9:41:23 GMT
New month, new BP poll. You know the drill: the poll is only to make my tallying easier. If you want to vote for something else, you can: just post your choice below.Otherwise only use the poll function to vote. Feel free to explain your vote, offer your insights, or guarantee future bragging rights for calling it early, but only the poll votes will be tallied (with the exception above). I'll keep it open for a few days, then post the results with some comments. Steve McQueen's Widows is off out list with zero votes despite high anticipation, as is Mary Queen of Scots which is losing steam in the Oscar season. If Beale Street Could Talk, The Front Runner, Black Panther and Vice (aka Backseat) lingers with one vote each.
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LaraQ
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Post by LaraQ on Oct 1, 2018 11:20:11 GMT
A Star Is Born.I think it'll be between this and Roma.
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Post by TheAlwaysClassy on Oct 1, 2018 14:12:24 GMT
Finally switching to ASIB
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Oct 1, 2018 15:06:02 GMT
Sticking with The Favourite.
Searchlight's track record speaks for itself, and they're coming off of a spectacular year in which they had not only the eventual BP winner but also the runner-up. They're also locking up the cast's schedules to make sure they hit the circuit hard, so they know what they're doing.
The festival reactions proved that it's a lot more accessible than imagined, which means it'll probably play like gangbusters to the Academy, whether on screenings or screeners. It seems to be right in that sweet spot that all post-Argo BP winners have been: high-brow enough to get critical adoration and not be written off as populist fluff, but not so challenging or inaccessible that it wouldn't appeal to the majority of voters and surge ahead on a preferential ballot system. Add the fact that it's about a lesbian love triangle in the age of MeToo and bam.
Like I've said before, A Star is Born is hot right now but strikes me as something that'll most likely peak too early or get hit with backlash later on. There's already rumblings that one of the producers is a sexual abuser, which WB has mostly been able to contain so far but which any rival studio can easily use later on to shoot it down. The total TIFF Audience Award shutout shows it's not the unbeatable audience darling we assumed it'd be.
It also doesn't fit with the Academy's current woke trend, which in the past two seasons meant the demise of highly buzzed, crowd-pleasing frontrunners La La Land and Three Billboards. (In fact, one might also take it one step further and argue that although The Revenant had a LOT more working against it than Chazelle and McDonagh's films did, Spotlight's win was the real precursor to this trend.) If even La La Land, with its record-tying 14 nominations, historical Golden Globe sweep and sky high raves from audiences and critics alike, faltered at the finish line after months of being hailed as a runaway masterpiece because it's too white and """about Ryan Gosling saving jazz""", I can only imagine that a country musical starring freaking Lady Gaga is even more at risk, especially when it's coming out 2 months earlier than LLL did, which gives it more time to fade while something else takes center stage and dominates the narrative.
Roma has consistently overperformed so far, but I still think a black and white, foreign language drama with no recognizable stars will find an uphill battle when it comes to a preferential ballot system. It strikes me more as an Amour-type player, with a massive showing in the big 8 categories due to passionate support but winning Foreign Language Film instead of BP. Director and Cinematography are also certainly in play, but I just don't know if it'll have enough broad appeal to outright win the main category when there's still so much resistance to Netflix in the industry.
And finally, BlacKKKlansman took a bit of a hit as the fall festivals blessed us with so many shiny new toys, but it'll most likely be Focus's #1 player, and Lee's narrative is certainly a strong one. They can bring it back to the spotlight in due time, especially given that it's by far the wokest, most politically resonant contender so far. I'm not writing it off at all.
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Post by JangoB on Oct 1, 2018 15:46:31 GMT
I'm sticking with "A Star is Born" for now although it clearly has a few things going against it - the early frontrunner status is never a great thing, it doesn't have a woke message angle to it, and however good it may be it's still a fourth version of a tale/brand as old as time.
But it just seems like it's gonna have a ton of support within the industry and a ton of good will from all audiences, and like it's gonna be THE emotional hit of the season. The campaign for it will obviously be insane.
At the same time I have this sneaking suspicion that a new BP frontrunner will emerge a tad later, I'm just not sure which movie it's gonna be ("The Favourite" maybe?).
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Post by quetee on Oct 1, 2018 16:03:31 GMT
I'm sticking with "A Star is Born" for now although it clearly has a few things going against it - the early frontrunner status is never a great thing, it doesn't have a woke message angle to it, and however good it may be it's still a fourth version of a tale/brand as old as time. But it just seems like it's gonna have a ton of support within the industry and a ton of good will from all audiences, and like it's gonna be THE emotional hit of the season. The campaign for it will obviously be insane. At the same time I have this sneaking suspicion that a new BP frontrunner will emerge a tad later, I'm just not sure which movie it's gonna be ("The Favourite" maybe?). we know quality of every movie except for vice and the mule. In a year where they wanted to add a popular movie category, something audience friendly will win.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Oct 1, 2018 17:34:08 GMT
A Star is Born
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Oct 2, 2018 0:00:43 GMT
Either Roma or A Star Is Born
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Post by quetee on Oct 2, 2018 3:34:53 GMT
I voted for BP but I don't think it will win. I guess at this point, my well pick is A Star is Born. I just think Bradley is walking away with some type of award and if he could win director so ummm, some of you haters better prepare yourself for that one.
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Post by stephen on Oct 2, 2018 3:37:03 GMT
I'm really starting to buy into The Favourite as a contender. I see it as the Original Screenplay frontrunner, is likely going to take at least one tech (Costumes), Colman is probably the frontrunner in whichever category she winds up in, and it has a rather timely message/angle to it.
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Post by stephen on Oct 2, 2018 3:39:47 GMT
I voted for BP but I don't think it will win. I guess at this point, my well pick is A Star is Born. I just think Bradley is walking away with some type of award and if he could win director so ummm, some of you haters better prepare yourself for that one. Actor seems the likelier place for him to be recognized. No real competition there, and if he wins Director as well then he's probably also taking Picture, and I don't see him walking out of there with multiple trophies. One, two max if his song gets the win as well.
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rhodoraonline
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Post by rhodoraonline on Oct 3, 2018 3:25:21 GMT
Why is Green Room not an option? I mean, it may likely not win but it still is a viable option.
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Post by quetee on Oct 3, 2018 4:07:47 GMT
Why is Green Room not an option? I mean, it may likely not win but it still is a viable option. That's only been on the radar for few weeks now. This poll is for winner rather than nominee. However, you're right, it will score a nod.
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Post by Martin Stett on Oct 3, 2018 4:09:59 GMT
Why is Green Room not an option? I mean, it may likely not win but it still is a viable option. Because it's a horror film from 2016. The reason Green Book isn't an option is because nobody voted for it last month. If you want to vote for it, just say so and it will be counted. On the November poll, it will be listed. As for my vote, I'm sticking with Klansman, although it has taken a big hit from all the new drops. Green Book and If Beale Street Could Talk can eat into its racial angle, and The Favourite appears to be the actors' favorite (and they're the biggest, most important branch). A Star Is Born will be the popular favorite. I'm honestly thinking that The Favourite is in the lead right now, but I'm not sure how Focus is handling its campaign yet. And I've been with Lee this long, so may was well hold on for another month. Lee is still in the lead for director, and that's huge.
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Post by stephen on Oct 3, 2018 5:13:48 GMT
I'm honestly thinking that The Favourite is in the lead right now, but I'm not sure how Focus is handling its campaign yet. And I've been with Lee this long, so may was well hold on for another month. Lee is still in the lead for director, and that's huge. It's Fox Searchlight, not Focus. And it's clearly their biggest show-pony this year. Sure, they may also run a strong campaign for Can You Ever Forgive Me?, but that isn't their #1 priority, seeing how well The Favourite is doing with critics and festivals already. Searchlight is probably the best campaigner in the business now that Weinstein's reign of terror has ended (and even before then, really), and last year proved they can run strong narratives for multiple films successfully.
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Post by Martin Stett on Oct 3, 2018 9:33:18 GMT
I'm honestly thinking that The Favourite is in the lead right now, but I'm not sure how Focus is handling its campaign yet. And I've been with Lee this long, so may was well hold on for another month. Lee is still in the lead for director, and that's huge. It's Fox Searchlight, not Focus. And it's clearly their biggest show-pony this year. Sure, they may also run a strong campaign for Can You Ever Forgive Me?, but that isn't their #1 priority, seeing how well The Favourite is doing with critics and festivals already. Searchlight is probably the best campaigner in the business now that Weinstein's reign of terror has ended (and even before then, really), and last year proved they can run strong narratives for multiple films successfully. I worded that sentence wrong, but I know what I meant. What I meant to say is that I don't know how Focus is handling the campaign of BlackkKlansman. I already know that Searchlight is gonna push the hell out of The Favourite.
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flaiky
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Post by flaiky on Oct 3, 2018 12:34:34 GMT
It also doesn't fit with the Academy's current woke trend Just curious: since you said your money is on The Favourite, what about that film can be seen as "woke"? Genuine question as I only know the broad outline of the film and didn't watch the whole trailer since they are so spoilerish these days (oh so yes, nothing spoilerish please!)
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Oct 3, 2018 18:37:28 GMT
A Star is Born = Best Picture Roma = Best Director
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Post by stephen on Oct 3, 2018 18:45:01 GMT
It also doesn't fit with the Academy's current woke trend Just curious: since you said your money is on The Favourite, what about that film can be seen as "woke"? Genuine question as I only know the broad outline of the film and didn't watch the whole trailer since they are so spoilerish these days (oh so yes, nothing spoilerish please!) It's a film about women, (co-)written by a woman, who empower themselves with little regard or assistance from men. Even though things may not necessarily work out well within the confines of the film itself, it does send a strong message that women can seek to elevate themselves to higher stations and callings without needing to capitulate to a patriarchal viewpoint.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 4, 2018 1:42:56 GMT
A Star Is Born seems like a safe bet for now but it'll need to keep up the momentum over the next couple of months. Only time will tell.
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Post by joephoenix on Oct 4, 2018 15:57:13 GMT
I still have no idea so I'll just stick with BlacKKKlansman.
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Post by bruinjoe96 on Oct 4, 2018 19:26:16 GMT
I'm going with A Star is Born.
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Post by quetee on Oct 5, 2018 3:24:28 GMT
Uhoh everyone picking ASIB so that can't be it..... ugh....
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 5, 2018 20:34:39 GMT
This board is the only place I see The Favourite being predicted to win like this. It's weird. I think you guys need to chill. It's still a Yorgos Lanthimos movie. I think best case scenario this will be his Grand Budapest Hotel.
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Post by stephen on Oct 5, 2018 20:45:04 GMT
This board is the only place I see The Favourite being predicted to win like this. It's weird. I think you guys need to chill. It's still a Yorgos Lanthimos movie. I think best case scenario this will be his Grand Budapest Hotel. Speaking for myself, yes, it's a Lanthimos movie, but: 1. A Guillermo del Toro movie about a woman having sex with a fish-man won Best Picture from the same studio just last year. 2. It's likely winning Original Screenplay and potentially one of the actress categories. 3. It's poised to be nominated across the board in the tech categories, and probably taking home at least one (Costumes). 4. The aforementioned "pro-woman" message. 5. It's getting strong reviews from critics and audiences are seeming to be digging it, judging from word from the festivals.
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