My nominee breakdown by probability

Doesn't mean that I'm predicting everything I think technically has the best chance. Gives a lot of extra credit to films that had the "buzz" in the conversation, and we know there are always upsets (especially in techs). 


Best Picture
▪ La La Land - 97%
▪ Moonlight - 1%
▪ Arrival - >1%
▪ Fences - >1%
▪ Hacksaw Ridge - >1%
▪ Hell or High Water - >1%
▪ Hidden Figures - >1%
▪ Lion - >1%
▪ Manchester by the Sea - >1%

Best Director
▪ Damien Chazelle, La La Land - 95%
▪ Barry Jenkins, Moonlight - 2%
▪ Denis Villeneuve, Arrival - 1%
▪ Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge - > 1%
▪ Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea - >1%

Best Actress  
▪ Emma Stone, La La Land - 90%
▪ Isabelle Huppert, Elle  - 7%
▪ Natalie Portman, Jackie - 1%
▪ Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins - 1%
▪ Ruth Negga, Loving - >1%

Best Actor  
▪ Denzel Washington, Fences - 50%
▪ Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea - 47%
▪ Ryan Gosling, La La Land - 1%
▪ Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge - >1%
▪ Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic - >1%

Best Supporting Actress  
▪ Viola Davis, Fences - 99%
▪ Naomie Harris, Moonlight - >1%
▪ Nicole Kidman, Lion - >1%
▪ Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures - >1%
▪ Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea - >1%

Best Supporting Actor  
▪ Mahershala Ali, Moonlight - 81%
▪ Dev Patel, Lion - 16%
▪ Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water - 1%
▪ Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea - >1%
▪ Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals - >1%

Best Adapted Screenplay
▪ Moonlight - 91%
▪ Lion - 4%
▪ Arrival - 2%
▪ Hidden Figures - 1%
▪ Fences - >1%

Best Original Screenplay  
▪ Manchester by the Sea - 48%
▪ La La Land - 46%
▪ Hell or High Water - >1%
▪ The Lobster - >1%
▪ 20th Century Women - >1%

Best Animated Feature
▪ Zootopia - 93%  
▪ Kubo and the Two Strings - 5%
▪ Moana - >1%
▪ My Life as a Zucchini - >1%
▪ The Red Turtle - >1%

Best Documentary Feature
▪ O.J.: Made in America - 90%
▪ 13th - 7%
▪ Life, Animated - 1%
▪ I Am Not Your Negro - 1%
▪ Fire at Sea - >1%

Best Foreign Language Film  
▪ The Salesman - 61%
▪ Toni Erdmann - 28%
▪ A Man Called Ove - 9%
▪ Land of Mine - >1%
▪ Tanna - >1%

Best Cinematography
▪ La La Land - 79%
▪ Lion - 12%
▪ Arrival - 7%
▪ Moonlight - 1%
▪ Silence - >1%

Best Costume Design
▪ Jackie - 39%
▪ La La Land - 36%
▪ Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - 16%
▪ Florence Foster Jenkins - 8%
▪ Allied - >1%

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
▪ Star Trek Beyond - 84%
▪ A Man Called Ove - 14%
▪ Suicide Squad - 1%

Best Production Design  
▪ La La Land - 68%
▪ Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - 17%
▪ Arrival - 14%
▪ Hail, Caesar! - >1%
▪ Passengers - >1%

Best Visual Effects
▪ The Jungle Book - 76%
▪ Rogue One  A Star Wars Story - 22%
▪ Kubo and the Two Strings - 1%
▪ Deepwater Horizon - >1%
▪ Doctor Strange - >1%

Best Film Editing
▪ La La Land - 68%
▪ Arrival - 16%
▪ Hacksaw Ridge - 14%
▪ Hell or High Water - 1%
▪ Moonlight - 1%

Best Sound Editing
▪ Hacksaw Ridge - 39%
▪ Arrival - 33%
▪ La La Land - 26%
▪ Deepwater Horizon - >1%
▪ Sully - >1%

Best Sound Mixing  
▪ La La Land - 83%
▪ Hacksaw Ridge - 10%
▪ Arrival - 5%
▪ Rogue One  A Star Wars Story - 1%
▪ 13 Hours - >1%

Best Score  
▪ La La Land - 98%
▪ Lion - 1%
▪ Jackie - >1%
▪ Moonlight - >1%
▪ Passengers - >1%

Best Original Song
▪ “City of Stars” (La La Land) - 64%
▪ “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” (La La Land) - 32%
▪ “How Far I’ll Go” (Moana) - 2%
▪ “Can’t Stop the Feeling” (Trolls) - 1%
▪ “The Empty Chair” (Jim  The James Foley Story) - >1%