Post by Brother Fease on Feb 20, 2017 11:37:32 GMT
Here's what we know:
- Manchester won the Critics Choice and BAFTA, and 15 critics circle screenplay awards (not counting online, african american, or women's only groups ). - La La Land won the Globe and Critics Choice, and 3 critics circle screenplay awards. - Hell or High Water won 11 critics circle screenplay awards. - Since 2000, 12/16 Best Picture winners have gone on to win a screenplay award. The exception years were 2000 (Gladiator didn't win a single screenplay award), 2002 (Neither did Chicago), 2004 (Million Dollar Baby lost to Sideways), and 2011 (Midnight in Paris beat out The Artist). - The Golden Globes have accurately predicted the Oscar Screenplay winner 12/16 times too. In 2002 (Schmidt) and 2015 (Steve Jobs), the Globe winner wasn't nominated. - The BAFTAs have accurately predicted the Original Screenplay winners 10/16 times, and the Adapted Screenplay winner 9/16 times. - Musicals winning Best Picture have won a screenplay award 3/10 times.
Who takes it?
I think it is close, but I am going to say Manchester for now. I am about not really confident about the pick. The screenplay could be part of the LLL wave.
Post by unfunnyhamster on Feb 20, 2017 11:51:26 GMT
In regards to BAFTA, you only have to take into consideration what they have done after their voting systen changed in 2012. Before that only writers were voting for screenplay categories, which must have changed the results quite a bit. For instance despite all of its ridicolous sweep, the local favorite The King's Speech lost Directing to The Social Network because actual directors had the sense to understand the former was sh*tly directed.
With that knowledge, after 2012, BAFTA practically has 1/4 track record in Adapted and 2/4 in Original. I'm slightly leaning towards to Lonergan at the Oscars but that award might just as well as be the kiss of death more so than being a good indicator.