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Post by SergeantTibbs on Aug 21, 2017 4:49:39 GMT
Please no ties and be specific on the performer and film.
Last month's results:
Best Actor: (37 votes) 1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour - 23 2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread - 8 3. Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq. - 2 4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist - 1 5. Andrew Garfield, Breathe - 1 6. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman - 1 7. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here - 1
Best Actress: (35 votes) 1. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel - 13 2. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die In Liverpool - 6 3. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game - 4 4. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul - 4 5. Meryl Streep, The Papers - 3 6. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 2 7. Jessica Chastain, Woman Walks Ahead - 1 8. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound - 1 9. Soairse Ronan, Lady Bird - 1
Best Supporting Actor: (21 votes) 1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project - 11 2. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name - 7 3. Woody Harrelson, The Glass Castle - 2 4. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound - 1
Best Supporting Actress: (32 votes) 1. Michelle Pfeiffer, Mother! - 10 2. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound - 6 3. Allison Janney, I, Tonya - 6 4. Melissa Leo, Novitiate - 5 5. Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman - 2 6. Hong Chau, Downsizing - 1 7. Claire Foy, Breathe - 1 8. Margo Martindale, Downsizing - 1
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morton
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Post by morton on Aug 22, 2017 15:37:18 GMT
Best Actor: Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq. - I almost typed out Gary Oldman because my brain was on autopilot for a second there, but I will continue to be a bit different until the festivals start because the writing will probably be on the wall at that time. Most likely I feel all the pundits and buzz will say that he's already clinched the Best Actor win, but it's possible that there's wiggle room for someone else to win. If there is wiggle room, I think Washington and Cranston would be the next in line to win, but I'll go with Washington because he was so close to winning last year which could help him this year. Plus, I think Roman Israel, Esq. could be big both critically and commercially.
Best Actress: Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel - Even if she doesn't quite hit the heights that Cate Blanchett hit for Blue Jasmine, she's already out there and with the buzz that's out there, I think it's going to be very difficult to stop her. Streep maybe, but I think Winslet's character is going to be too colorful and have more "moments". Plus, Streep just won more recently than Winslet did, and her film is a late release. Perhaps Bening, but she's really going to need the critics behind her. First, I think it needs to land in the mid to upper 70s for Bening to be able to compete for the win this year since Wonder Wheel looks like it's a hit for Woody Allen again instead of another miss and The Papers will likely be nominated for Best Picture and perhaps be one of the favorites for Best Picture, and looking over Paul McGuigan's filmography, I don't know that's going to happen. Second, I think she needs the critics to either back her when it comes to the top tier awards or at least 2-3 out of the big 4, or have them split so that if she only wins 1 of the 4, then no one else especially Winslet or Streep wins the rest or most of the rest.
I just feel that this is Winslet's to lose right now unless a young non-winner like Saoirse Ronan gets raves or a newbie like Claire Foy gets all the raves otherwise, I think that AMPAS will have no problem awarding Winslet a second Best Actress Oscar especially since it's been almost ten years since her first win and for a Woody Allen film.
Best Supporting Actor: Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Be By Your Name - The trailer for The Florida Project kind of makes me want to go back to predicting Willem Dafoe here, but Stuhlbarg feels like he could be a J.K. Simmons or a Mo'Nique who have buzz all the way from Sundance and win everything throughout the season. It also doesn't hurt that he'll have The Papers and The Shape of Water too.
Best Supporting Actress: Claire Foy, Breathe - It seems like Melissa Leo has absolutely no competition right now especially since there's no been word yet if Foy will stay Leading or not, but I'll continue to predict Foy for now because I think Bleecker Street, the people working on Breathe's Oscar campaign, and even Foy will realize that if she went supporting she could actually win there whereas with leading right now, she might not even be nominated because of how stacked the category looks.
If Foy stays leading though, I guess Leo wins because I really don't see anyone right now that could beat her. I can see Juno Temple getting nominated, but I can't see her winning if Wonder Wheel really is Winslet's Blue Jasmine. Maybe Pfeiffer, but Pfeiffer could be in a similar situation like Temple where Lawrence gets most of the raves and attention. Plus, mother! might be too weird for AMPAS. I'd love Laurie Metcalf to be in the mix, but unfortunately even though she's highly respected, she really hasn't done that many notable films, and I don't see Lady Bird being something like Bridge of Spies that could put her in a similar situation as Mark Rylance. I don't even know if my dark horse pick Andrea Riseborough will even get any buzz for Battle of the Sexes or The Death of Stalin; although, I'll continue to predict her for the nomination for now, but I've given up on predicting her to win.
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Post by thomasjerome on Aug 22, 2017 16:15:41 GMT
This will sound like some kind of "night of the overdue" fantasy but here we go: Best Actor: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) Actress: Annette Bening (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool) Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe (Florida Project) Supporting Actress: Michelle Pfeiffer (mother!)
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Post by Sharbs on Aug 22, 2017 16:26:46 GMT
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
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Post by FrancescoAbides on Aug 22, 2017 17:47:40 GMT
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project Michelle Pfeiffer, Mother!
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 22, 2017 22:38:07 GMT
Gary Oldman- The Darkest Hour Kate Winslet- Wonder Wheel Willem Dafoe- The Florida Project Michelle Pfeiffer- mother!
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Post by DeepArcher on Aug 23, 2017 5:55:33 GMT
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, PTA8, or: The Film That's Not Going to Be Called "Phantom Thread" I have a lingering suspicion that this ultimately won't go to one of the "Big Three" contenders (DDL, Washington, Oldman), but so far there isn't word of anyone promising breaking into the race to trump the trio. My heart wants to go with Joaquin, but I'm still not sold on the idea of that role claiming Oscar glory. Then again, I had the same early suspicions about Casey building off of his early festival buzz and eventually winning the Oscar, while not many were on the same boat as early-on. Still, while I think Phoenix might be more of a player than what is being predicted, I'm gonna play it safe for now and go with one of the obvious choices. And, honestly, though we know virtually nothing about DDL's role at this point, it's arguably better than what we've seen from Washington and Oldman -- the former dressed in awfully goofy costumes that seem to suggest a role that isn't a typical Oscar caliber deal, and the latter trapped in a rather generically bait-y film that may not be able to generate enough buzz on its own right (not to mention, it seems that Oldman isn't even matching Lithgow's recent work as the same character, which could reasonably overshadow him). Day-Lewis, though, has the "swan song" angle to his campaign, which will be a huge factor no matter how the film and the role shape up. I'm not confident with this one, but for now I'll stick with the oilman.
Best Actress: Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel There are a ton of viable candidates for this one, but I'm gonna stick with the board's frontrunner until convinced otherwise. She's had great early buzz, and, as many others have mentioned, her narrative is awfully similar to the other Cate's second win. It definitely seems that the stars may be aligning for the repeat, though Bening, Dench, and Streep are far from out of the picture. And I'd love it if Frances entered that picture as well.
Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project The trailer absolutely convinced me. Dafoe looks tremendous, and his role and performance certainly bear striking similarities to the one that won the category last year. He has so much working in his favor that he's the most clear frontrunner in any of the acting races at the moment. Stuhlbarg will surely be strong competition, but his fame is of a far more recent nature compared to Dafoe's more legendary status, which ultimately gives him the edge. It's far from set in stone, but this is one I'm confident with for now.
Best Supporting Actress: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound Basically only seen raves for her, and it's a performance/film that the Academy would likely go for, especially in the acting categories. Leo and Pfeiffer seem to be the most possible competition, but from what I've seen, I'm not sold on either as a winner. While we haven't seen footage of Blige yet, I'm totally convinced by the "singer-turned-actress" narrative she has in her favor, as well as the role she's playing.
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Post by Kirk-Picard on Aug 23, 2017 9:55:44 GMT
James Franco,The Disaster Artist Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project Michelle Pfeiffer, Mother!
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Post by notacrook on Aug 23, 2017 13:12:04 GMT
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis. Far from confident in this, and it could very easily be Oldman since the Academy loves play-it-safe biopics with big acting moments. But they also adore DDL and I think his 'retirement' will push them to give him his 4th. This is assuming that Phantom Thread is any good, which I'm sure it will be.
Actress: Kate Winslet This is once again an insanely competitive year for lead actresses on paper. It could easily be Streep, or Bening, or Lawrence...the list goes on. But I think Kate will pull a Cate here.
Supporting Actor: Michael Stuhlbarg Could very well be Dafoe, but I don't think the Academy will embrace that film like they will Call Me by Your Name, and I think Stulhbarg has more heat as an actor in general these days. He got raves for his performance, and they'll want to give the film something I think (though it's strongest shot might be Adapted Screenplay).
Supporting Actress: Michelle Pfeiffer mother! is still very much up-in-the-air in regards to quality and how Oscar friendly it'll be, but Pfeiffer is enjoying something of a career surge a la Kidman and she looks fantastic based on trailers.
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Post by mrmoviegeek on Aug 28, 2017 13:24:56 GMT
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour Kate Winslet - Wonder Wheel Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project Claire Foy - Breathe
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Aug 28, 2017 14:28:18 GMT
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name Claire Foy, Breathe
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 2, 2017 3:20:43 GMT
Yes, I know it's September already, but can I go back in my DeLorean and put that I was for Gary Oldman all along. I felt that it was inevitable, but I just wanted to be contrarian just in case. I guess I should have just went with the grain because I really can't see anyone beating him now, and I feel like Darkest Hour could possibly win Best Picture since nothing else really feels like a BP winner to me yet.
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Post by stephen on Sept 2, 2017 4:41:59 GMT
Yes, I know it's September already, but can I go back in my DeLorean and put that I was for Gary Oldman all along. I felt that it was inevitable, but I just wanted to be contrarian just in case. I guess I should have just went with the grain because I really can't see anyone beating him now, and I feel like Darkest Hour could possibly win Best Picture since nothing else really feels like a BP winner to me yet. Oldman's getting great notices (and I'm glad to hear them), but his biggest competitors have yet to be seen. It ain't his just yet.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Sept 4, 2017 11:17:49 GMT
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (Alt. Daniel Day-Lewis, The Phantom Thread) Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (Alt. Meryl Streep, The Post) Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (Alt. Michael Stuhlberg, Call Me By Your Name) Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (Alt. Claire Foy, Breathe)
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