Best Supporting Actor predictions?

I've been predicting Farrell since ever the beginning of the year. Sucks that "Roman Israel" didn't deliver. Whatever, my updated predictions are:

1. Willem Dafoe - "The Florida Project". There's enough of buzz around him to happen. He's a respected veteran and is certainly overdue for a win.

2. Michael Stuhlbarg - "Call Me By Your Name". He's not in it as much as Armie Hammer (who probably will also go supporting) but he's older, hard-working character actor, has "the scene" and in possible three BP nominees.

3. Sam Rockwell - "Three Billboards". Overdue. Showy role.

4. Idris Elba - "Molly's Game". But I don't know if he can get in without Jessica who I don't predict at the moment.

5. Michael Shannon (or Richard Jenkins) - "Shape of Water". Shannon is a curious case, he gets in whenever you don't expect him and he doesn't when you're predicting him, so we'll see. Jenkins is also possible.

6. Steve Carell or Laurence Fishburne - "Last Flag Flying". Didn't like the trailer but still think it'll be acclaimed.

7. Ben Mendelsohn - "Darkest Hour". Coattail.

8. Kevin Spacey - "All the Money in the World". Early word is it'll be one of his usual typical deadpan roles but Sony may push it hard.

Updated predictions from Sunday.

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missour
Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name

Alt.
Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (interchangeable with Hammer really)
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

Right now:

Sam Rockwell
Sterling k brown
Laurence fishburn
Kevin spacey
Tom hanks costar.

Spoiler:

James belushi