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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 23, 2023 15:00:06 GMT
On January 12th, the Producers Guild of America will announce their 35th annual awards. 71% (24/34) of the time, the PGA winner has gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. Since 2009, under their preferential ballot system, only The Big Short, La La Land, and 1917 won the PGA without winning Best Picture.Braveheart is the only film to win Best Picture without a PGA nomination.
PRECURSOR AWARDS American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things - AFI Top Ten + Golden Globe (Drama or Comedy/Musical) + Critics Choice
May December - AFI Top Ten + Golden Globe Comedy/Musical
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - AFI Top Ten
Air - Golden Globe Comedy/Musical Anatomy of a Fall & The Zone of Interest - Golden Globe Drama
The Color Purple & Saltburn - Critics Choice
Killers of the Flower Moon won the NYFCC, NBR, and Chicago Film Critics top prize. The Holdovers took home the Boston Film Critics and Dallas Film Critics Best Picture award. Oppenheimer won the Southeastern Film Critics Best Film award. The Zone of Interest won the top prize at the Los Angeles Film Critics awards ceremony.
That's 15. Going to throw into the mix Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret (CCA Screenplay nominee), All of Us Strangers (CCA Screenplay nominee), The Boy and the Heron (TIFF 3rd place), Nyad (Foster's performance), and Rustin (Domingo's performance).
We should see at least 7 of these PGA nominees landing a Best Picture nomination.
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Post by stephen on Dec 23, 2023 15:13:51 GMT
American Fiction Anatomy of a Fall Barbie The Holdovers Killers of the Flower Moon Maestro May December Oppenheimer Past Lives Poor Things
I do think we get one international feature in, and I feel like Anatomy of a Fall has more crowd-pleasing clout. May December is the one I'd swap out if Zone of Interest has muscle.
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Post by JangoB on Dec 23, 2023 16:18:59 GMT
- American Fiction - Barbie - The Holdovers - Killers of the Flower Moon - Maestro - Oppenheimer - Past Lives - Poor Things - Air - The Color Purple
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Post by DanQuixote on Dec 23, 2023 21:52:35 GMT
American Fiction Barbie The Color Purple The Holdovers Killers of the Flower Moon Maestro May December Oppenheimer Past Lives Poor Things
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tylosaur
New Member
Posts: 183
Likes: 101
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Post by tylosaur on Dec 23, 2023 23:01:13 GMT
NGNG - The Iron Claw
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 24, 2023 0:30:18 GMT
Why The Iron Claw? The film did not receive a single Globe or Critics Choice nomination.
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Post by finniussnrub on Dec 24, 2023 0:32:20 GMT
Why The Iron Claw? The film did not receive a single Globe or Critics Choice nomination. AKA groups without voting overlap with the PGA.
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 24, 2023 0:49:13 GMT
Why The Iron Claw? The film did not receive a single Globe or Critics Choice nomination. AKA groups without voting overlap with the PGA. Exactly. Even if we look at American Sniper, which did not receive any Globe nominations and only received Critics Choice Action Movie nominations, the film did make AFI Top Ten and won the NBR for Best Director. Perhaps the poster is thinking that it is a late bloomer type of deal.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 2, 2024 19:12:54 GMT
The top 8 on here look pretty solid. Since it’s unlikely they would go for Zone or Anatomy those last two are very up for grabs. Since they didn’t go for Carol I’m not predicting May December either. Air makes some sense but I’ll say The Color Purple and Spiderverse. Sounds up their alley.
If The Color Purple makes it here and SAG ensemble which I’m predicting I would keep it in my BP 10. I would replace Spiderverse (or Air if it takes this spot) with something else. Right now I’ll say Anatomy.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 11, 2024 2:25:25 GMT
The PGA nominations will be announced on Friday. Here are the major Guild count so far:
Oppenheimer - 5 nominations (DGA, SAGE, SAG BA, SAG BSA, SAG BSA)
Killers of the Flower Moon / Barbie - 4 nominations (DGA, SAGE, SAG BA, SAG BSA)
The Holdovers / Poor Things - 3 nominations (DGA, SAG BA, SAG BSA)
American Fiction - 3 nominations (SAGE, SAG BA, SAG BSA)
The Color Purple - 2 nominations (SAGE, SAG BSA)
Maestro - 2 nominations (SAG BA, SAG BA)
Nyad - 2 nominations (SAG BA, SAG BSA)
Rustin / Ferrari - 1 nomination (SAG)
7 films have received at least a SAG Ensemble or DGA nomination.
Past Lives has completely blanked. That's the only one of the big 8, which hasn't received any recognition.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 11, 2024 22:01:28 GMT
So there is the 8 everybody is predicting and I’m not really sure after that.
They don’t really go for foriegn language films unless they are win competitive. Maybe Anatomy because it’s only half? But then again if it that was a thing I feel like Hüller could have gotten SAG.
May December is kind of bombing.
Spiderverse isn’t doing great but feels like something they would do.
Saltburn is doing ok with guilds but is getting some freebies because it’s “contemporary” (what is the line with that) but missed anything at SAG and while longlisted at BAFTA a lot couldn’t make the top 10 for BP despite being very British.
The Color Purple is tanking everywhere except SAG.
Air couldn’t even get Viola Davis a SAG nod.
I guess I’ll say The Color Purple and Spiderverse. Get replaced by Anatomy and Zone.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 11, 2024 22:53:36 GMT
So there is the 8 everybody is predicting and I’m not really sure after that. They don’t really go for foriegn language films unless they are win competitive. Maybe Anatomy because it’s only half? But then again if it that was a thing I feel like Hüller could have gotten SAG. May December is kind of bombing. Spiderverse isn’t doing great but feels like something they would do. Saltburn is doing ok with guilds but is getting some freebies because it’s “contemporary” (what is the line with that) but missed anything at SAG and while longlisted at BAFTA a lot couldn’t make the top 10 for BP despite being very British. The Color Purple is tanking everywhere except SAG. Air couldn’t even get Viola Davis a SAG nod. I guess I’ll say The Color Purple and Spiderverse. Get replaced by Anatomy and Zone. That's my thoughts exactly. But I will add that Past Lives has zero Guild nominations. I don't think it received any of the technical recognition. If there's a vulnerability with the "Big 8", it would be Past lives.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 12, 2024 18:05:23 GMT
Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
American Fiction Anatomy Of A Fall Barbie The Holdovers Killers Of The Flower Moon Maestro Oppenheimer Past Lives Poor Things The Zone Of Interest
Wow they went very high brow this year. Here is our BP 10. Nothing else makes sense
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 12, 2024 18:06:52 GMT
Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures American Fiction Anatomy Of A Fall Barbie The Holdovers Killers Of The Flower Moon Maestro Oppenheimer Past Lives Poor Things The Zone Of Interest Wow they went very high brow this year. Here is our BP 10. Nothing else makes sense Wow, they picked my preseason top ten.
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Post by stephen on Jan 12, 2024 18:10:55 GMT
American Fiction Anatomy of a Fall Barbie The Holdovers Killers of the Flower Moon Maestro May December Oppenheimer Past Lives Poor ThingsI do think we get one international feature in, and I feel like Anatomy of a Fall has more crowd-pleasing clout. May December is the one I'd swap out if Zone of Interest has muscle. 9/10. They switched May December out for Zone.
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Post by DanQuixote on Jan 12, 2024 18:11:43 GMT
That’s our BP ten, right? I don’t see how anything else can get in there. Maaaaaybe Boy and the Heron or All of Us Strangers instead of Maestro, but doubt it.
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Post by mikediastavrone96 on Jan 12, 2024 18:17:09 GMT
That’s our BP ten, right? I don’t see how anything else can get in there. Maaaaaybe Boy and the Heron or All of Us Strangers instead of Maestro, but doubt it. The Color Purple I'd say is probably the only one with a solid chance of still getting in.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 12, 2024 18:17:48 GMT
It would be crazy if Zone and Anatomy both get into Best Picture and neither gets a Best Director nomination tbh.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 12, 2024 18:18:27 GMT
This is also our Bafta long list minus American Fiction but we all know why they didn’t go for that.
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Post by stephen on Jan 12, 2024 18:18:32 GMT
That’s our BP ten, right? I don’t see how anything else can get in there. Maaaaaybe Boy and the Heron or All of Us Strangers instead of Maestro, but doubt it. All of Us Strangers is the only one I can think that has a shot at it, if it overperforms at BAFTA and passion for it can knock out something on the cusp. But overall yeah, I think that's our ten.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 12, 2024 18:20:28 GMT
That’s our BP ten, right? I don’t see how anything else can get in there. Maaaaaybe Boy and the Heron or All of Us Strangers instead of Maestro, but doubt it. The Color Purple I'd say is probably the only one with a solid chance of still getting in. Solid is probably I strong or a word but it’s probably 11th. Maybe All of Us Strangers but Stranger’s problem is it’s going to do good in the same place Anatomy and Zone will (BAFTA).
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 12, 2024 18:21:58 GMT
That’s our BP ten, right? I don’t see how anything else can get in there. Maaaaaybe Boy and the Heron or All of Us Strangers instead of Maestro, but doubt it. All of Us Strangers is the only one I can think that has a shot at it, if it overperforms at BAFTA and passion for it can knock out something on the cusp. But overall yeah, I think that's our ten. Who would it knock out in that case though because Anatomy and Zone will do well there too.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 12, 2024 18:24:25 GMT
What a boring lineup.
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Post by stephen on Jan 12, 2024 18:29:14 GMT
All of Us Strangers is the only one I can think that has a shot at it, if it overperforms at BAFTA and passion for it can knock out something on the cusp. But overall yeah, I think that's our ten. Who would it knock out in that case though because Anatomy and Zone will do well there too. I would say Zone of Interest is probably the most vulnerable, but I also am expecting Glazer to get the Director nomination (and I think Triet is definitely in the hunt as well). That said, Maestro probably is the film that will get the least amount of #1 votes, but I can't bet against it.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 12, 2024 19:05:17 GMT
I think this is our Best Picture lineup. All Of Us Strangers would need to massively overperform at BAFTA, like a Best Film nomination, for me to believe it can get in now. Best Director is the one I'm looking at. In a normal year I'd say two foreign language films getting into the PGA list will get into Director, but that Top 4 is too solid, unless a crazy snub happens like Gerwig or Lanthimos. Who gets that 5th slot? I was on the Glazer train until Anatomy won the Screenplay Globe, now I'm really torn It might also be a case of vote-splitting between the two foreign films that leave the path open for Payne.
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