Oppenheimer (2023): How much will it Oscar?

I think VFX is a definite and it isn't just the explosion. Every shot that depicts sort of the visualizations of Oppenheimer's mind is a VFX shot. I think that along with the sell of "they're all practical", will give it a relatively easy pathway. 

Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor (RDJ), Supporting Actress (Blunt), Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Visual Effects, Sound and Score.

I also have Damon as my #6.

My apologies. I forgot to add Film Editing -- I was distracted when writing it. Please re-due your entries. mhynson27, DanQuixote finniussnrub

All of the above minus the costumes, makeup and Pugh. I voted Damon because I think this is getting 2 supporting actor noms, but I’m just not sure if Damon will be the guy. This will be the most nommed film of the year

Picture
Director
Actor
Supporting Actor - Downey Jr.
Adapted Screenplay
Cinematography
Production Design
Film Editing
Sound
Score

Feel like Blunt might show up at Golden Globes or SAG or something before getting left off. Costume Design is a possibility but it isn't particularly showy compared to other contenders (Barbie, Dune: Part Two, Wonka, Napoleon, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, Priscilla). Visual Effects I say gets left off since there's not a ton they can showcase in the bake-off and there are again other showier contenders, but if it makes its way in I wouldn't be terribly surprised.

I won't reiterate my earlier point, but the branch also loves Nolan's films in the category (Tenet, Interstellar, Inception all being winners) and Dunkirk really wasn't a snub since the emphasis there over and over again was how little VFX he used. This time, the emphasis is effects without CGI, which seems like a big sell for the bakeoff. 

After all what gets in over it?

Dune 2 (as long as it truly isn't delayed)
Guardians 3
The Marvels
Ant-Man (seems unlikely, one is they typically avoid Marvel overkill, 2 the effects were rather derided.)
Transformers (Even though they've been passing on the series since 2011). 
Dungeons and Dragons (Maybe but they could easily forget about it.)
Rebel Moon?
The very much derided DC movies?

Other than Dune and maybe Guardians, none of these sound like locks either, and usually if the academy can go "prestige" in the category, they do (e.g. 1917, The Irishman & All Quiet on the Western Front). 

Seems like a lock for BP/Director/Screenplay and all the techs except make up. The acting nods are the wild card, I could see it getting anywhere from zero to four. Actor is just always so tough.

I'm warming up to the BP prospects here. I was hesitant at first because of the early release and Nolan's track record (a bunch of critically acclaimed films but just two BP noms, 1 BD nom, and one acting nom). How it's tearing it up at the BO and the lack of other strong contenders changed my mind. I think it's surpassed Past Lives as the "early favorite". Killers of the Flower Moon has the "another good Scorsese crime movie" feel to it that makes me think it will get nommed but won't win. Dune might get pushed back and is sci fi. Color Purple's a musical. Stuff like Asteroid City, The Holdovers, or Barbie feel too light. Napoleon feels like the biggest threat but I doubt that will have as much pop culture pull as Oppenheimer. Maybe Ferrari too, just don't know enough about that yet.

To play devil's advocate: Nolan has only garnered a single acting nomination (Ledger) in his entire career. He doesn't make actor-driven movies by and large. And there are still a lot of potential awards players yet to be seen, and Oppenheimer is first and foremost a directorial feat than anything else. I am expecting Murphy and Downey, Jr. to get nominated (and I think the latter could well be win-competitive), but I wouldn't necessarily call either one a lock at this point. Murphy's never been nominated before and it's not exactly a flashy performance; it helps that he's in nearly every frame of the movie that isn't the Strauss hearing stuff, but it's a very introspective performance that doesn't usually get nominated. I think he could easily miss if some of the favoured names in contention this year don't get pushed into 2024, and stick the landing (DiCaprio is safe for sure, Domingo/Cooper/Giamatti/Keoghan/Phoenix/Driver/Ben-Adir have yet to be seen but could all make a play, as well as potential stealth contenders we've not mentioned. Plus Murphy really doesn't seem like he gives a shit about awards or campaigning.

Let's be clear: I am predicting both men to get nominated as being more likely than them both missing. But. Shit happens.

Stephen about covered it, it's just not a flashy performance, Ledger's the only acting nod ever for Nolan, and as I said lead actor is just tough, lots of good performances miss out every year. I would also predict him to make it but I could also see him missing. He could become a lock if some of the other contenders flop later in the year but there's a lot left to see.