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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Mar 12, 2023 17:58:14 GMT
On Gold Derby, we're seeing a surge for Jamie Lee Curtis for Supporting Actress. She's now the favorite among the experts. That’s fairly meaningless though, right? |
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hilderic
Junior Member
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Post by hilderic on Mar 12, 2023 19:43:22 GMT
On Gold Derby, we're seeing a surge for Jamie Lee Curtis for Supporting Actress. She's now the favorite among the experts. Do you think winning 6 above-the-line Oscars + Editing is a genuine possibility for Everything Everywhere All at Once? |
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Post by MacLinney on Mar 12, 2023 20:30:54 GMT
BEST PICTURE - Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST DIRECTOR - The Daniels
BEST ACTOR - Austin Butler
BEST ACTRESS - Michelle Yeoh
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Ke Huy Quan
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Jamie Lee Curtis
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - Women Talking
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY - All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN - All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST EDITING - Top Gun: Maverick
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE - Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST ORIGINAL SONG - "Naatu Naatu", RRR
BEST COSTUME DESIGN - Elvis
BEST SOUND - Top Gun: Maverick
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS - Avatar: The Way of Water
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING - Elvis
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM - All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST ANIMATED FILM - Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
BEST DOCUMENTARY - Navalny
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT - An Irish Goodbye
BEST ANIMATED SHORT - My Year of Dicks
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT - Stranger at the Gate
Do I feel weird about predicting goose eggs for Banshees, Fabelmans AND Tár? Yes.
Am I doing it anyways? Yes.
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Post by Brother Fease on Mar 12, 2023 20:50:12 GMT
On Gold Derby, we're seeing a surge for Jamie Lee Curtis for Supporting Actress. She's now the favorite among the experts. Do you think winning 6 above-the-line Oscars + Editing is a genuine possibility for Everything Everywhere All at Once? Yes. I mean, EEAAO won 8 major guild awards this year. That is a record. Guild voters went crazy for the film. Why wouldn’t the Academy share that view? |
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hilderic
Junior Member
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Likes: 132
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Post by hilderic on Mar 12, 2023 21:07:57 GMT
Do you think winning 6 above-the-line Oscars + Editing is a genuine possibility for Everything Everywhere All at Once? Yes. I mean, EEAAO won 8 major guild awards this year. That is a record. Guild voters went crazy for the film. Why wouldn’t the Academy share that view? I find it striking, given your emphasis on precedent and statistics. I get your point about guild awards, but (correct me if I'm wrong): - No film has ever won 6 above-the-line Oscars + Editing - No film has ever won 6 above-the-line Oscars - No film has won 5 above-the-line Oscars + Editing since On the Waterfront- No film has won 5 above-the-line Oscars since Silence of the Lambs |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Mar 12, 2023 21:25:32 GMT
final predix BP - EEAAO Director - Daniels Actress - Yeoh Actor - Butler Supp Actress - Condon Supp Actor - Quan Adapted - All Quiet Original - Banshees Cinematography - All Quiet Costumes - Black Panther Editing - EEAAO Makeup - Elvis Prod Design - Babylon Score - All Quiet Song - Naatu Naatu Sound - Top Gun VFX - Avatar Animated - GDT's Pinocchio Doc - hmmmmm I'll say Navalny. Has the "importance" factor I guess IFF - All Quiet switched to Fraser and EEAAO in original screenplay. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Mar 12, 2023 22:15:44 GMT
Yes. I mean, EEAAO won 8 major guild awards this year. That is a record. Guild voters went crazy for the film. Why wouldn’t the Academy share that view? I find it striking, given your emphasis on precedent and statistics. I get your point about guild awards, but (correct me if I'm wrong): - No film has ever won 6 above-the-line Oscars + Editing - No film has ever won 6 above-the-line Oscars - No film has won 5 above-the-line Oscars + Editing since On the Waterfront- No film has won 5 above-the-line Oscars since Silence of the LambsI'll admit, I am taking a big swing here with 7 Oscar wins. However, lets understand EEAAO already broke precedent. Think about it: How many films won PGA, DGA, 4 SAG awards, WGA, and ACE? This is a film setting its own benchmark. Last year, CODA broke longstanding precedents, because it was (a) only had 3 nods, and (b) Lacked DGA and ACE nominations. We hadn't seen such a thing since the early 1930s. Also, look at the Best Actor nominees. All first-time nominees. Never happened since the 30s. The BAFTAs and the Guilds had zero overlap, besides Film Editing. That's also pretty rare.
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hilderic
Junior Member
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Likes: 132
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Post by hilderic on Mar 12, 2023 22:59:10 GMT
I find it striking, given your emphasis on precedent and statistics. I get your point about guild awards, but (correct me if I'm wrong): - No film has ever won 6 above-the-line Oscars + Editing - No film has ever won 6 above-the-line Oscars - No film has won 5 above-the-line Oscars + Editing since On the Waterfront- No film has won 5 above-the-line Oscars since Silence of the LambsI'll admit, I am taking a big swing here with 7 Oscar wins. However, lets understand EEAAO already broke precedent. Think about it: How many films won PGA, DGA, 4 SAG awards, WGA, and ACE? This is a film setting its own benchmark. Last year, CODA broke longstanding precedents, because it was (a) only had 3 nods, and (b) Lacked DGA and ACE nominations. We hadn't seen such a thing since the early 1930s. Also, look at the Best Actor nominees. All first-time nominees. Never happened since the 30s. The BAFTAs and the Guilds had zero overlap, besides Film Editing. That's also pretty rare.
BAFTAs (and Globes, AACTAs, box office) also give me pause, as they suggest the film is much less liked outside the USA. I don't know, however, how influential non-Americans are within AMPAS. Anyway, you've got a good argument. I still think it's winning 5 above-the-line Oscars maximum (probably fewer), but I see your point. We'll find out soon. |
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Mar 12, 2023 22:59:14 GMT
NGNG: I'm not actually predicting it, but could you imagine a Blanchett/Yeoh TIE? Only happened once, but it would make sense and it would be the big "surprise" moment of the night that everyone will talk about (AMPAS likes that) and it allows them to cover their ass by honoring the best performance and also making their precious history. Very small chance, but I'm just putting it out there since no one else has.
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hilderic
Junior Member
Posts: 305
Likes: 132
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Post by hilderic on Mar 13, 2023 3:36:37 GMT
I find it striking, given your emphasis on precedent and statistics. I get your point about guild awards, but (correct me if I'm wrong): - No film has ever won 6 above-the-line Oscars + Editing - No film has ever won 6 above-the-line Oscars - No film has won 5 above-the-line Oscars + Editing since On the Waterfront- No film has won 5 above-the-line Oscars since Silence of the LambsI'll admit, I am taking a big swing here with 7 Oscar wins. However, lets understand EEAAO already broke precedent. Think about it: How many films won PGA, DGA, 4 SAG awards, WGA, and ACE? This is a film setting its own benchmark. Last year, CODA broke longstanding precedents, because it was (a) only had 3 nods, and (b) Lacked DGA and ACE nominations. We hadn't seen such a thing since the early 1930s. Also, look at the Best Actor nominees. All first-time nominees. Never happened since the 30s. The BAFTAs and the Guilds had zero overlap, besides Film Editing. That's also pretty rare.
You were right. Well done! |
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Mar 13, 2023 5:05:14 GMT
Never wavered from Top Gun (until PGA) and Brendan Fraser all season... well at least one of those acts of stubbornness worked out for me.  |
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Post by stabcaesar on Mar 13, 2023 5:14:43 GMT
BEST PICTURE - Everything Everywhere All at Once BEST DIRECTOR - The Daniels BEST ACTOR - Brendan Fraser BEST ACTRESS - Michelle Yeoh BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Ke Huy Quan BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Angela Bassett Jamie Lee CurtisBEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - The Banshees of Inisherin EEAAOBEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - Women Talking BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY - All Quiet on the Western Front BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN - Babylon All Quiet on the Western FrontBEST EDITING - Everything Everywhere All at Once BEST ORIGINAL SCORE - All Quiet on the Western Front BEST ORIGINAL SONG - "Naatu Naatu", RRR BEST COSTUME DESIGN - Elvis Black Panther: Wakanda ForeverBEST SOUND - Top Gun: Maverick BEST VISUAL EFFECTS - Avatar: The Way of Water BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING - Elvis The WhaleBEST INTERNATIONAL FILM - All Quiet on the Western Front BEST ANIMATED FILM - GDT's Pinocchio BEST DOCUMENTARY - Navalny BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT - Le pupille An Irish GoodbyeBEST ANIMATED SHORT - The Boy, the Mole, the Fox & the Horse BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT - The Elephant Whisperers Not too bad. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Mar 13, 2023 11:03:31 GMT
I'll admit, I am taking a big swing here with 7 Oscar wins. However, lets understand EEAAO already broke precedent. Think about it: How many films won PGA, DGA, 4 SAG awards, WGA, and ACE? This is a film setting its own benchmark. Last year, CODA broke longstanding precedents, because it was (a) only had 3 nods, and (b) Lacked DGA and ACE nominations. We hadn't seen such a thing since the early 1930s. Also, look at the Best Actor nominees. All first-time nominees. Never happened since the 30s. The BAFTAs and the Guilds had zero overlap, besides Film Editing. That's also pretty rare.
You were right. Well done! I have been following the Oscars since the late 90s. I know my stuff. I got 19/23 on Gold Derby and 20/23 on ABC News. |
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