|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Jan 25, 2023 23:41:35 GMT
As you all know, 14 of the last 15 People's Choice winners have gone on to land a Best Picture nomination. 13 of those all won at least one Oscar.
2022 - Belfast won Original Screenplay 2021 - Nomadland won Picture, Director and Actress 2020/2015 - Jojo Rabbit/The Imitation Game won Adapted Screenplay 2019 - Green Book won Picture, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay 2018 - Three Billboards won Actress and Supporting Actor 2017 - La La Land won six Oscars, including for Director and Actress 2016/2013 - Room/Silver Linings Playbook won Actress 2014 - 12 Years won Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and Supporting Actress 2011 - The King's Speech won Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and Actor 2010 - Precious won Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay 2009 - Slumdog Millionaire won 8 Oscars, including Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, and Editing
Does The Fabelmans continue the TIFF tradition of at least one Oscar?
So far, so good. The Fabelmans won the NBR Best Director award, the Golden Globe for Drama and Director, and scored five major Guild nominations -- PGA, DGA, SAG Ensemble, SAG BSA, and WGA BOS. I suspect we're going to see an ACE nomination next week. The only big miss was only one BAFTA nomination for Original Screenplay.
The Oscars nominated the film for seven awards -- Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor (Judd Hirsch, not Paul Dano), Original Screenplay, Original Score, and Production Design.
|
|
|
|
Post by mikediastavrone96 on Jan 25, 2023 23:43:31 GMT
Nope. Michelle Williams fucked it up.
|
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Jan 25, 2023 23:48:46 GMT
Nope. Michelle Williams fucked it up. You know, the Academy choose to put her in leading. They could have nominated her in Supporting. The acting categories are suggestions. They saw her as lead, not supporting. But the larger question is, you don't think it is winning any Oscars period? Not even for Production Design. |
|
|
|
Post by JangoB on Jan 25, 2023 23:52:57 GMT
I'm afraid not although I would LOVE it if Spielberg got a lone Director win for it - not just because I love him and his achievement but also because it'd be a very cool addition to his collection of Oscar oddities  |
|
|
|
Post by mikediastavrone96 on Jan 26, 2023 0:00:38 GMT
Nope. Michelle Williams fucked it up. You know, the Academy choose to put her in leading. They could have nominated her in Supporting. The acting categories are suggestions. They saw her as lead, not supporting. But the larger question is, you don't think it is winning any Oscars period? Not even for Production Design. Yeah, they can reject category fraud, but when it's widely known the category she's going to campaign in since TIFF, why would you throw your vote away to put her in the other category? On the off hope that everyone else will do the same? Maybe if the category hadn't been decided until late, sure, but she stamped her claim well before awards were coming out. |
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Jan 26, 2023 0:04:33 GMT
Nope
|
|
|
|
Post by JangoB on Jan 26, 2023 0:07:03 GMT
You know, the Academy choose to put her in leading. They could have nominated her in Supporting. The acting categories are suggestions. They saw her as lead, not supporting. But the larger question is, you don't think it is winning any Oscars period? Not even for Production Design. Yeah, they can reject category fraud, but when it's widely known the category she's going to campaign in since TIFF, why would you throw your vote away to put her in the other category? On the off hope that everyone else will do the same? Maybe if the category hadn't been decided until late, sure, but she stamped her claim well before awards were coming out.Exactly. And it's not like the Academy is switching people from their chosen categories left and right. Sure, it's happened a few times, but mostly they just stick to what they're told. |
|
|
|
Post by finniussnrub on Jan 26, 2023 0:09:07 GMT
I'd say it has an outside chance for either Director or Score, not predicting either, but they wouldn't surprise me.
|
|
allaby
New Member
Posts: 61 
Likes: 17
|
Post by allaby on Jan 26, 2023 0:35:08 GMT
Yes, I think it will win at least best director and is still competitive for best picture.
|
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Jan 26, 2023 0:43:00 GMT
Yes, I think it will win at least best director and is still competitive for best picture. Exactly. The only big thing it is missing is that Film Editing nomination. If the movie wins the DGA or the WGA, then I think it'll probably win at least one Oscar and continue the tradition. It definitely has the narrative - personal story angle. We saw this with Green Book, Belfast, Almost Famous and The Pianist. |
|
|
|
Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 26, 2023 2:47:59 GMT
I do kinda think it can win best director especially with EEAAO looking to take picture and screenplay. AMPAS likes to spread the love these days and BP/BD splits aren't exactly uncommon.
|
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Jan 26, 2023 4:26:56 GMT
I do kinda think it can win best director especially with EEAAO looking to take picture and screenplay. AMPAS likes to spread the love these days and BP/BD splits aren't exactly uncommon. Good point about spreading the love, but in that case I think we'd be more likely to see EEAAO take BP/BD, and Banshees takes Screenplay. |
|
|
|
Post by stabcaesar on Jan 26, 2023 4:47:29 GMT
I do kinda think it can win best director especially with EEAAO looking to take picture and screenplay. AMPAS likes to spread the love these days and BP/BD splits aren't exactly uncommon. In that case McDonagh probably wins. |
|
|
|
Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jan 26, 2023 6:34:34 GMT
For now, I'll say Director and Score
|
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Jan 26, 2023 6:39:38 GMT
I think there is the slightest chance he could surge back and take Best Director, but I don't see any real pathway to any other wins.
|
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Jan 26, 2023 11:10:37 GMT
I think there is the slightest chance he could surge back and take Best Director, but I don't see any real pathway to any other wins. WGA is an option. CODA was never seen as a screenplay contender until it won at BAFTA and then the WGA. |
|
|
|
Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 26, 2023 13:30:08 GMT
I agree with those that think it’s still in play for Best Director.
|
|
|
|
Post by DanQuixote on Jan 26, 2023 13:48:24 GMT
Maaaaybe Director, but I doubt it.
|
|
wonky
Full Member
Posts: 595
Likes: 712
|
Post by wonky on Jan 26, 2023 22:18:43 GMT
For now, I'll say Director and Score It is sort of too bad that on paper this was maybe the year to give John Williams a sixth. I always felt like based on his post-Schindler career he deserves a sixth as much as Meryl deserved a third. And it is his 90th birthyear and a Spielberg biopic. There was sort of the "will he, won't he" of his retirement and he always gets love whenever a news story pops up about him or people just randomly decide to discuss their favorites. I suppose there is a very small chance sentiment has built up long enough. But it is a little bit one of the more bullshit JW nominations given that there is so little score in the movie and the piano sequences are really the thing, especially the Bach Adagio. The main theme and Mitzi's Dance are enough to make me go "Yeah, fine," but I am a simp of course. I just love seeing him add to his tally at this point. I will say, though, if this were for a Pixar movie, he'd be winning |
|
|
|
Post by stabcaesar on Jan 27, 2023 8:35:58 GMT
I've seen people describing Spielberg as this year's Kenneth Branagh. So The Fabelmans might still receive a lone best director win like how Belfast still won original screenplay in the end.
|
|
|
|
Post by hugobolso on Jan 27, 2023 12:21:13 GMT
What a decadence!!!
|
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Jan 27, 2023 14:21:27 GMT
I think there is the slightest chance he could surge back and take Best Director, but I don't see any real pathway to any other wins. In my eyes, there are FIVE films with a legit chance of winning Best Picture.
Banshees and Everything are pretty obvious. They were nominated for PGA, DGA, SAGE, BAFTA, and for seven major Oscars. Most likely those are going to be the main contenders. Think Billboards vs. Water, or Moonlight vs. La La Land, or The Aviator or Million Dollar Baby.
But The Fabelmans, TAR, and Top Gun (yes, Danger Zone) have a shot, if they are able to dominate at the major Guild awards, like what we saw with Birdman, The King's Speech, Argo, and CODA.
I do agree with the crowd, that Best Director is probably its best shot. I don't think we're going to see Michelle Williams or Judd Hirsch winning it.
|
|
