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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 25, 2023 3:26:57 GMT
Nominees
All Quiet on the Western Front - Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, & Ian Stokell
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery - Rian Johnson Living - Kazuo Ishiguro Top Gun: Maverick - Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie, Eric Warren Singer. Peter Craig & Justin Marks Women Talking - Sarah Polley
Statistics + Precursor awards
- The NBR Best Adapted Screenplay award went to All Quiet on the Western Front.
- The Critics Choice Association awarded Women Talking their Best Adapted Screenplay trophy.
- Women Talking has the most critics circle wins (at least 12 wins), followed by Glass Onion (at least 8 wins).
- Women Talking is the only film in this category with a Golden Globe Screenplay nomination.
- All Quiet and Living are the only films nominated for both an Adapted Screenplay Oscar and an Adapted Screenplay BAFTA.
- Since 2000, all of the Best Adapted Screenplay winners were nominated at the BAFTAs.
- 6 out of the last 7 BAFTA Best Adapted Screenplay winners went on to win the Oscar.
- Since 2009, all of the Best Adapted Screenplay winners scored a Critics Choice screenplay nomination. Their overall accuracy is 4 out of 13. Only Call Me By Your Name, The Big Short, 12 Years A Slave, and The Social Network went on to win screenplay Oscars.
- All Quiet, Top Gun and Women Talking are the only Best Picture nominees on the list. The Academy hasn't gone with a non-Best Picture nominee since Gods and Monsters back in 1999. Since 1953, we have only seen 3 films win Best Adapted Screenplay without a Best Picture nomination.
For the people who believe Top Gun: Maverick will win Best Picture, it might be a smart move to pick its screenplay to win here. Pretty much every single Best Picture winner won at least Director or Screenplay. 1940 Rebecca, 2000 Gladiator and 2002 Chicago are the "recent" exceptions.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 25, 2023 4:03:28 GMT
Women Talking
Alt: AQOTWF
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Post by stephen on Jan 25, 2023 4:04:00 GMT
Women Talking still has the edge, but man, do not count out All Quiet.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 25, 2023 5:50:15 GMT
I guess Women Talking. Who knows
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Post by JangoB on Jan 25, 2023 6:25:13 GMT
Sarah Polley, like she always was.
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Post by mikediastavrone96 on Jan 25, 2023 6:28:15 GMT
I'll say All Quiet on the Western Front pulls it off.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jan 25, 2023 7:53:04 GMT
Still don't buy Women Talking winning despite its BP nom, and I think it's possible that foreign-language/remake bias might affect AQOTWF. I know Top Gun is an action movie (and a sequel), but as I've said elsewhere, I don't think people will necessarily care that it isn't a traditionally "writerly" movie if they're passionate about the movie enough. Predicting it for the screenplay nomination worked out for me, so I might as well stay on this train! And given that I'm predicting it to win BP, and screenplay is so closely tied to BP, I kinda have to predict it here too.
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Jan 25, 2023 8:07:56 GMT
The least deserving, so Women Talking.
I haven’t seen Living yet, so I don’t know if Women Talking is actually the worst, but it would make a mediocre winner in my eyes.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 25, 2023 11:51:12 GMT
Still don't buy Women Talking winning despite its BP nom, and I think it's possible that foreign-language/remake bias might affect AQOTWF. I know Top Gun is an action movie (and a sequel), but as I've said elsewhere, I don't think people will necessarily care that it isn't a traditionally "writerly" movie if they're passionate about the movie enough. Predicting it for the screenplay nomination worked out for me, so I might as well stay on this train! And given that I'm predicting it to win BP, and screenplay is so closely tied to BP, I kinda have to predict it here too. The problem is, I don't think there is much passion for it anymore, otherwise it would have gotten at least one of Director or Actor. It's honestly all the more likely not even Top 5 anymore.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 25, 2023 11:55:40 GMT
I'm NGNG predicting Living because I think these fuckers would want to award a Nobel Prize winner.
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Post by ibbi on Jan 25, 2023 12:40:14 GMT
Of the four I've seen I'd say fucking Maverick is the most deserving Western Front maybe has the momentum with this late surge in industry popularity, Glass Onion has the pop appeal that Maverick also shares but is less... writer-y. It would be cool to see Polley win just because I love her, but I'm kind of pulling for Ishiguro. I'd be tempted to put All Quiet on the Western Front and Living slightly ahead of the pack just based on their BAFTA noms, but will be interesting to see what happens at the admittedly not particularly meaningful WGA's today.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jan 25, 2023 14:34:28 GMT
Still don't buy Women Talking winning despite its BP nom, and I think it's possible that foreign-language/remake bias might affect AQOTWF. I know Top Gun is an action movie (and a sequel), but as I've said elsewhere, I don't think people will necessarily care that it isn't a traditionally "writerly" movie if they're passionate about the movie enough. Predicting it for the screenplay nomination worked out for me, so I might as well stay on this train! And given that I'm predicting it to win BP, and screenplay is so closely tied to BP, I kinda have to predict it here too. The problem is, I don't think there is much passion for it anymore, otherwise it would have gotten at least one of Director or Actor. It's honestly all the more likely not even Top 5 anymore. Eh, I'm not sure if that's really substantive evidence of dwindling passion. We know how snobby the Directors branch is, so I'm not surprised at Kosinski missing there, and I think people can be passionate about the movie without necessarily thinking it deserves an acting nom for Cruise. I know Clayton Davis is Clayton Davis, but he reported that, in his conversations with voters, many members indicated that it's is their BP pick or is at least ranked incredibly high on their ballots, and I have no reason to believe that's some anomaly.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 25, 2023 15:06:57 GMT
The problem is, I don't think there is much passion for it anymore, otherwise it would have gotten at least one of Director or Actor. It's honestly all the more likely not even Top 5 anymore. Eh, I'm not sure if that's really substantive evidence of dwindling passion. We know how snobby the Directors branch is, so I'm not surprised at Kosinski missing there, and I think people can be passionate about the movie without necessarily thinking it deserves an acting nom for Cruise. I know Clayton Davis is Clayton Davis, but he reported that, in his conversations with voters, many members indicated that it's is their BP pick or is at least ranked incredibly high on their ballots, and I have no reason to believe that's some anomaly. Ah yes, the Director branch is snobby yet they may very well be giving the win to two guys who previously made a film about a farting corpse and the Turn it Down For What music video, and their nominated work has butt plugs and sausage fingers. Missing Cinematography isn't a great look either. Oh God, not the anonymous ballot reports this early
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 25, 2023 15:29:28 GMT
Eh, I'm not sure if that's really substantive evidence of dwindling passion. We know how snobby the Directors branch is, so I'm not surprised at Kosinski missing there, and I think people can be passionate about the movie without necessarily thinking it deserves an acting nom for Cruise. I know Clayton Davis is Clayton Davis, but he reported that, in his conversations with voters, many members indicated that it's is their BP pick or is at least ranked incredibly high on their ballots, and I have no reason to believe that's some anomaly. Ah yes, the Director branch is snobby yet they may very well be giving the win to two guys who previously made a film about a farting corpse and the Turn it Down For What music video, and their nominated work has butt plugs and sausage fingers. Missing Cinematography isn't a great look either. Oh God, not the anonymous ballot reports this early I’m at the “Just let them have this.” phase.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jan 25, 2023 15:33:01 GMT
Eh, I'm not sure if that's really substantive evidence of dwindling passion. We know how snobby the Directors branch is, so I'm not surprised at Kosinski missing there, and I think people can be passionate about the movie without necessarily thinking it deserves an acting nom for Cruise. I know Clayton Davis is Clayton Davis, but he reported that, in his conversations with voters, many members indicated that it's is their BP pick or is at least ranked incredibly high on their ballots, and I have no reason to believe that's some anomaly. Ah yes, the Director branch is snobby yet they may very well be giving the win to two guys who previously made a film about a farting corpse and the Turn it Down For What music video, and their nominated work has butt plugs and sausage fingers. Missing Cinematography isn't a great look either. Oh God, not the anonymous ballot reports this early I mean that's part of why I'm currently predicting Spielberg ftw lol... and that Cinematography snub feels like such a bizarre anomaly, I don't think it ultimately means much considering it would have won had it been nominated. And I see the anonymous ballots as more useful for validating prior suspicions of broad trends, not so much for signaling a shift in the tide (unless you're Hopkins). I'm not over here doing something like predicting Cruz to win Best Actress last year based on them.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 25, 2023 20:21:26 GMT
Here's other interesting stats for you guys:
The Father is the only film to win best adapted screenplay without a PGA nomination, since 2002's The Pianist.
The last time a non-Golden Globe Motion Picture nominee won Adapted Screenplay was The Cider House Rules.
Regardless of how you spin it, it's going to be an exception year.
We could very well be in a position where Top Gun wins the WGA, All Quiet wins the BAFTA. That would make it a three-way race.
All Quiet was not eligible for the WGA, which makes it an unpredictable race.
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Post by Joaquim on Jan 25, 2023 20:26:30 GMT
All Quiet on the Western Front
Get ready for this to have a monster day on Oscars night, even if it doesn’t win BP
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filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 820
Likes: 408
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 25, 2023 21:42:47 GMT
All Quiet on the Western Front. If it wins International Feature, those will be 2 big wins.
The Academy has been more about spreading the wins. It's rare to see major sweeps by 1 film.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 25, 2023 22:34:44 GMT
Ah yes, the Director branch is snobby yet they may very well be giving the win to two guys who previously made a film about a farting corpse and the Turn it Down For What music video, and their nominated work has butt plugs and sausage fingers. Missing Cinematography isn't a great look either. Oh God, not the anonymous ballot reports this early I’m at the “Just let them have this.” phase. Yeahhhh, that might just have to be the vibe going forward. The funny thing is, I haven't even see the other two biggest TGM predictors say anything since the noms.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jan 26, 2023 8:46:55 GMT
Here's other interesting stats for you guys: The Father is the only film to win best adapted screenplay without a PGA nomination, since 2002's The Pianist. The last time a non-Golden Globe Motion Picture nominee won Adapted Screenplay was The Cider House Rules. Regardless of how you spin it, it's going to be an exception year. We could very well be in a position where Top Gun wins the WGA, All Quiet wins the BAFTA. That would make it a three-way race. All Quiet was not eligible for the WGA, which makes it an unpredictable race. Here's another one pertaining to Women Talking: it seems that the only film ever to win Adapted Screenplay with only 1 other Oscar nomination is Sling Blade in 1996.
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