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Post by JangoB on Jan 19, 2023 22:38:45 GMT
Well, folks, with the BAFTAs out of the way there's nothing ahead but the Oscar nominations themselves so let's get going - post your final predictions! My picks are below (and I updated my votes in the polls I've made to reflect these final thoughts). These are unranked: BEST PICTURE- Everything Everywhere All at Once - The Banshees of Inisherin - The Fabelmans - Tár - Elvis - Top Gun: Maverick - Avatar: The Way of Water - All Quiet on the Western Front - The Whale - Women Talking ***I still can't fully buy the Academy not nominating Women Talking given its subject matter. Even though its precursor path has definitely been weak. Maybe Babylon gets in a-la Nightmare Alley too but I've dropped it because those 14 BAFTA noms for All Quiet are hard to ignore.BEST DIRECTOR- Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once - Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin - Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans - Todd Field, Tár - Baz Luhrmann, Elvis ***Initially went with Cameron but eventually chose Luhrmann instead. The love for Elvis is something to take a closer look at.BEST ACTOR- Austin Butler, Elvis - Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin - Brendan Fraser, The Whale - Bill Nighy, Living - Adam Sandler, Hustle ***I just don't have the faith in Mescal... What if it's suddenly Hanks with the megahit that is Otto? BEST ACTRESS- Cate Blanchett, Tár - Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once - Danielle Deadwyler, Till - Ana de Armas, Blonde - Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans ***Very risky to leave out Davis but what the hell, I still believe in Williams. Unless they nominate her in Supporting. Or maybe she gets votes in both categories and misses entirely.BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR- Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once - Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin - Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin - Paul Dano, The Fabelmans - Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse ***Can't think of anyone else even though Redmayne does seem like our annual snub.BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS- Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once - Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin - Hong Chau, The Whale - Carey Mulligan, She Said ***Hsu, De Leon, Michelle Williams... Who knows what'll happen.BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY- Everything Everywhere All at Once - The Banshees of Inisherin - The Fabelmans - Tár - Triangle of Sadness BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY- Women Talking - Living - She Said - Glass Onion - The Whale BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY- Top Gun: Maverick - Elvis - All Quiet on the Western Front - Empire of Light - The Batman ***Initially went with Bardo instead of Elvis but it's hard to deny that the latter seems to have caught the DPs' attention. Although I personally think it's fairly unremarkable in that regard. I'm hoping that the Academy's taste is better than that but I'm predicting it won't be.BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN- Avatar: The Way of Water - Babylon - The Fabelmans - Elvis - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever BEST EDITING- Top Gun: Maverick - Everything Everywhere All at Once - The Banshees of Inisherin - Elvis - All Quiet on the Western Front ***Not predicting The Fabelmans because of this branch's weird relationship with Kahn as of late (although it should win the damn thing). Initially I decided to go with the very flashiest contenders in my predictions but then chose to pick Banshees instead of Avatar because there's usually at least one "quieter" BP contender here.BEST ORIGINAL SCORE- Babylon - The Fabelmans - GDT's Pinocchio - The Banshees of Inisherin - Women Talking BEST ORIGINAL SONG- "Lift Me Up", Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - "Ciao Papa", GDT's Pinocchio - "Naatu Naatu", RRR - "Hold My Hand", Top Gun: Maverick - "Applause", Tell It Like a Woman BEST COSTUME DESIGN- Babylon - Elvis - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Everything Everywhere All at Once - Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris ***Initially had The Woman King instead of EEAAO here but I think the latter may catch the branch's attention with its admittedly colorful and memorable work.BEST SOUND- All Quiet on the Western Front - Avatar: The Way of Water - Everything Everywhere All at Once - Elvis - Top Gun: Maverick ***At first I had The Batman here instead of EEAAO, and I still think it has a great chance. But the latter is such a loud and busy movie sound-wise that I think it will eventually get in, especially with it being the genre BP frontrunner.BEST VISUAL EFFECTS- Avatar: The Way of Water - The Batman - Thirteen Lives - Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness - Top Gun: Maverick ***A Marvel movie always gets in so I suspect it'll be Doctor Strange this year. Also went with Thirteen Lives but I wonder if the work is too subtle for it to get in. We all know this branch prefers their effects to be as flashy as possible. Still, I'll take this risk.BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING- All Quiet on the Western Front - Blonde - The Batman - Elvis - The Whale BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM- Argentina, 1985 - Close - All Quiet on the Western Front - The Quiet Girl - Decision to Leave BEST ANIMATED FILM- Turning Red - GDT's Pinocchio - Marcel the Shell With Shoes On - Puss in Boots: The Last Wish - Wendell & Wild DFK DFC about the other categories.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 19, 2023 23:06:12 GMT
"final"... haha I'll be tinkering with mine until the night before.
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Post by JangoB on Jan 20, 2023 6:31:44 GMT
"final"... haha I'll be tinkering with mine until the night before. Please do! But don't forget to post'em here
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2023 13:48:10 GMT
BEST PICTURE- Everything Everywhere All at Once - The Banshees of Inisherin - The Fabelmans - Tár - Elvis I definitely agree that if we were back to the days of five nominees, these would be it.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 20, 2023 18:24:55 GMT
here goes nothing
Best Picture All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar: The Way of Water The Banshees of Inisherin Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Elvis Everything Everywhere All at Once The Fabelmans Tár Top Gun: Maverick Women Talking (#10) **very close to bumping Women Talking out for The Whale. Black Panther feels right to me with Bassett rising and it's a confirmed tech player. My original premise was that celebrating the movie could be the Academy's way of celebrating Boseman's legacy and I'm going back to that premise.
Best Director Edward Berger (#5) Daniels Todd Field Martin McDonagh Steven Spielberg **I'm betting on AQotWF overperformance. Cameron & Luhrmann are alternates with Polley and Prince-Blythewood out.
Best Actress Cate Blanchett Viola Davis Ana de Armas (#5) Danielle Deadwyler Michelle Yeoh **hope I'm wrong about de Armas but SAG + BAFTA is pretty undeniable. Williams has utterly flatlined and I think her last hope is enough voters putting her in supporting. I don't think Robbie is happening but maybe Riseborough or Colman could spoil.
Best Actor Austin Butler Colin Farrell Brendan Fraser Paul Mescal (#5) Bill Nighy **barring any shocks this looks like the most straightforward acting category with four of these feeling like a sure thing. Mescal is the most vulnerable but put him next to any of the other contenders vying for that spot (Calva, Cruise, Pope, Jackman, Sandler) and his record is better. Sandler would be my pick for a spoiler. Likable guy, likable performance, consolation prize after snubbing him for Gems.
Best Supporting Actress Angela Bassett Kerry Condon Jamie Lee Curtis Dolly De Leon Stephanie Hsu (#5) **this one's tricky. I'm betting on EEAAO overperformance for Hsu to get that coattail nod and if I had to pick an alt it'd be Chau, but Mulligan and Monae are potential spoilers too (and Williams too!). Women Talking girls are DOA.
Best Supporting Actor Paul Dano (#5) Ke Huy Quan Brendan Gleeson Barry Keoghan Eddie Redmanye **Dano feels the most vulnerable with just SAG (esp. given how much their picks have differed from AMPAS lately in the supporting categories) but looking at the contenders no one else looks that strong either. If I had to pick an alt I'd go with Henry because AMPAS likes to nominate first-timers and he's been doing quality work for a few years.
Best Adapted Screenplay All Quiet on the Western Front (#5) Glass Onion Living The Whale Women Talking **the BAFTA nod definitely helps Western Front's chances here and with that movie being all the rage atm I think it gets in over She Said. Spoilers are She Said and Top Gun.
Best Original Screenplay The Banshees of Inisherin Everything Everywhere All at Once The Fabelmans Tár Triangle of Sadness (#5) **this looks pretty straightforward. Don't think Aftersun has a path after missing at BAFTA so my spoiler is Decision to Leave.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 20, 2023 20:03:38 GMT
techs
Best Cinematography (no fucking clue!) All Quiet on the Western Front The Batman Elvis Empire of Light (#5) Top Gun: Maverick **anyone and their mother could get in. Field's wide open. If I was forced to pick just one alt, I'd go with Fabelmans.
Best Production Design All Quiet on the Western Front (#5) Avatar: The Way of Water Babylon Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Elvis **once again predicting Western Front overperformance and Fabelmans drawing blanks, and I'd actually go with EEAAO for my spoiler over Rick Carter.
Best Costume Design Babylon Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Elvis Everything Everywhere All at Once (#5) The Woman King **Mrs Harris is my alt
Best Film Editing All Quiet on the Western (#5) Elvis Everything Everywhere All at Once The Fabelmans Top Gun: Maverick **this one's always hard for me to predict because I never know what this branch is thinking lol. Is Avatar too long? Is Banshees too lowkey? Is Babylon just not a good enough movie and/or too long? So many variables but I'm predicting Western Front again just because it's all the rage right now. Avatar seems the likeliest spoiler but both the Banshees and Babylon editors are previous winners so it's anyone's guess.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling All Quiet on the Western Front The Batman Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (#5) Elvis The Whale **Babylon the obvious spoiler here.
Best Sound All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar: The Way of Water Elvis Everything Everywhere All at Once (#5) Top Gun: Maverick **normally I'd expect Babylon or The Batman to be here over EEAAO but between the sound guild noms and the movie's likely overperformance, I think it gets in. Fingers crossed for a Moonage Daydream upset.
Best Visual Effects All Quiet on the Western Front (#5) Avatar: The Way of Water The Batman Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Top: Gun Maverick **again playing the AQotWF dominance card. I'd prefer to see Nope here but it's gotten a weirdly sleepy reception in this category, and Doctor Strange's absence from BAFTA and the VFX guild noms gives me hope AMPAS won't celebrate the MCU for their ugliest movie to date.
Best Original Score Babylon The Banshees of Inisherin The Fabelmans Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio Women Talking **Alt is Western Front
Best Original Song "Applause" - Tell It Like a Woman "Ciao Papa" - Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio "Hold My Hand" - Top Gun: Maverick "Lift Me Up" - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever "Naatu Naatu" - RRR **T-Swizzle is the alt but I really don't think she gets in and New Body Rhumba is too cool for Oscar.
Best Animated Feature Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio Marcel the Shell with Shoes On My Father's Dragon (#5) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Turning Red **I have no investment in this category *shrugs*
Best Documentary All That Breathes All the Beauty and the Bloodshed Descendent Fire of Love Navalny **another category that's hard to predict because relatively speaking all these films are obscure. If I had to guess, I'd say the most vulnerable are Obamas-produced Descendent and Navalny. For my alt I'm going with NatGeo's The Territory but all of these are fair game.
Best International Film All Quiet on the Western Front Argentina, 1985 Close Decision to Leave The Quiet Girl (#5) **another wide-open field of relatively obscure films. No way of knowing where the voters might lean. My spoiler will be EO.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 20, 2023 22:49:13 GMT
here goes nothing Best PictureAll Quiet on the Western FrontAvatar: The Way of WaterThe Banshees of InisherinBlack Panther: Wakanda ForeverElvisEverything Everywhere All at OnceThe FabelmansTárTop Gun: MaverickWomen Talking (#10) **very close to bumping Women Talking out for The Whale. Black Panther feels right to me with Bassett rising and it's a confirmed tech player. My original premise was that celebrating the movie could be the Academy's way of celebrating Boseman's legacy and I'm going back to that premise. Best DirectorEdward Berger (#5) Daniels Todd Field Martin McDonagh Steven Spielberg **I'm betting on AQotWF overperformance. Cameron & Luhrmann are alternates with Polley and Prince-Blythewood out. Best ActressCate Blanchett Viola Davis Ana de Armas (#5) Danielle Deadwyler Michelle Yeoh **hope I'm wrong about de Armas but SAG + BAFTA is pretty undeniable. Williams has utterly flatlined and I think her last hope is enough voters putting her in supporting. I don't think Robbie is happening but maybe Riseborough or Colman could spoil. Best ActorAustin Butler Colin Farrell Brendan Fraser Paul Mescal (#5) Bill Nighy **barring any shocks this looks like the most straightforward acting category with four of these feeling like a sure thing. Mescal is the most vulnerable but put him next to any of the other contenders vying for that spot (Calva, Cruise, Pope, Jackman, Sandler) and his record is better. Sandler would be my pick for a spoiler. Likable guy, likable performance, consolation prize after snubbing him for Gems. Best Supporting ActressAngela Bassett Kerry Condon Jamie Lee Curtis Dolly De Leon Stephanie Hsu (#5) **this one's tricky. I'm betting on EEAAO overperformance for Hsu to get that coattail nod and if I had to pick an alt it'd be Chau, but Mulligan and Monae are potential spoilers too (and Williams too!). Women Talking girls are DOA. Best Supporting ActorPaul Dano (#5) Ke Huy Quan Brendan Gleeson Barry Keoghan Eddie Redmanye **Dano feels the most vulnerable with just SAG (esp. given how much their picks have differed from AMPAS lately in the supporting categories) but looking at the contenders no one else looks that strong either. If I had to pick an alt I'd go with Henry because AMPAS likes to nominate first-timers and he's been doing quality work for a few years. Best Adapted ScreenplayAll Quiet on the Western Front (#5) Glass OnionLivingThe WhaleWomen Talking**the BAFTA nod definitely helps Western Front's chances here and with that movie being all the rage atm I think it gets in over She Said. Spoilers are She Said and Top Gun. Best Original ScreenplayThe Banshees of InisherinEverything Everywhere All at OnceThe FabelmansTárTriangle of Sadness (#5) **this looks pretty straightforward. Don't think Aftersun has a path after missing at BAFTA so my spoiler is Decision to Leave. I was about to say how normal these were for Tommen predictions, and then I saw Black Panther in Picture ahead of Triangle, Babylon and The Whale.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 20, 2023 22:58:15 GMT
I was about to say how normal these were for Tommen predictions, and then I saw Black Panther in Picture ahead of Triangle, Babylon and The Whale. *that's PGA-nominated Black Panther to you
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 20, 2023 23:01:18 GMT
I was about to say how normal these were for Tommen predictions, and then I saw Black Panther in Picture ahead of Triangle, Babylon and The Whale. *that's PGA-nominated Black Panther to you ok Not like The Whale got a PGA nom too or anything...
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 20, 2023 23:05:35 GMT
Not like The Whale got a PGA nom too or anything... that's why The Whale is my alt. If it gets in it'll be over Women Talking which has totally flatlined while Bassett has kept Black Panther in the conversation. Babylon isn't happening, I've been saying that all season.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 21, 2023 0:51:55 GMT
Not like The Whale got a PGA nom too or anything... that's why The Whale is my alt. If it gets in it'll be over Women Talking which has totally flatlined while Bassett has kept Black Panther in the conversation. Babylon isn't happening, I've been saying that all season. For the record, my 9th and 10th are The Whale and Triangle of Sadness. I think Babylon and Women Talking at the very least are above BP too, but we shall see.
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Post by stephen on Jan 21, 2023 17:39:15 GMT
BEST PICTURE: All Quiet on the Western Front The Banshees of Inisherin Elvis Everything Everywhere All At Once The Fabelmans RRR TÁR Triangle of Sadness Top Gun: Maverick The Whale (ALT: Women Talking) ** I think my NGNG of the year is that Avatar: The Way of Water misses all above-the-line categories for films with more passion.
BEST DIRECTOR: Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All At Once Todd Field, TÁR Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (ALT: S. S. Rajamouli, RRR)
BEST ACTOR: Austin Butler, Elvis Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin Brendan Fraser, The Whale Paul Mescal, Aftersun Bill Nighy, Living (ALT: Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick)
BEST ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, TÁR Viola Davis, The Woman King Danielle Deadwyler, Till Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once (ALT: Ana de Armas, Blonde)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin Paul Dano, The Fabelmans Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (ALT: Albrecht Schuch, All Quiet on the Western Front — a strange NGNG, I know, but I think there could be enough passion in a relatively thin category that it could happen just as the film spikes at the right time.)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Hong Chau, The Whale Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once (ALT: Carey Mulligan, She Said)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: The Banshees of Inisherin Everything Everywhere All At Once The Fabelmans TÁR Triangle of Sadness (ALT: Aftersun, but I feel this is a pretty locked-in five)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: All Quiet on the Western Front Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Living The Whale Women Talking (ALT: She Said)
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: All Quiet on the Western Front Argentina, 1985 Close Decision to Leave The Quiet Girl (ALT: EO)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: The Bad Guys Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio Marcel the Shell With Shoes On Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Turning Red (ALT: I dunno . . . I guess My Father’s Dragon because they do tend to nominate Cartoon Saloon)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: All That Breathes All the Beauty and the Bloodshed Descendant Fire of Love Navalny (ALT: Moonage Daydream)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: All Quiet on the Western Front Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths Empire of Light Elvis Top Gun: Maverick (ALT: The Batman, I guess?)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar: The Way of Water Babylon Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Elvis (ALT: The Fabelmans)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Babylon Elvis Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris The Woman King (ALT: All Quiet on the Western Front)
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: All Quiet on the Western Front Babylon The Batman Elvis The Whale (ALT: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar: The Way of Water The Batman Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Top Gun: Maverick (ALT: I dunno . . . Nope, I guess)
BEST FILM EDITING: All Quiet on the Western Front The Banshees of Inisherin Elvis Everything Everywhere All At Once Top Gun: Maverick (ALT: TÁR)
BEST SOUND: All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar: The Way of Water Elvis Everything Everywhere All At Once Top Gun: Maverick (ALT: TAR)
BEST SCORE: All Quiet on the Western Front Babylon The Banshees of Inisherin The Fabelmans Women Talking (ALT: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “Applause” ~ Tell It Like A Woman “Ciao Papa” ~ Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio “Hold My Hand” ~ Top Gun: Maverick “Lift Me Up” ~ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever “Naatu Naatu” ~ RRR (ALT: “Carolina” ~ Where the Crawdads Sing)[/i][/i]
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Post by JangoB on Jan 21, 2023 19:17:22 GMT
BEST SOUND:All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar: The Way of Water Elvis Everything Everywhere All At Once Top Gun: Maverick(ALT: TAR) Tar ain't shortlisted!
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Post by stephen on Jan 21, 2023 20:04:33 GMT
BEST SOUND:All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar: The Way of Water Elvis Everything Everywhere All At Once Top Gun: Maverick(ALT: TAR) Tar ain't shortlisted! Good thing it's my alternate.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 21, 2023 20:12:17 GMT
Best Picture
- All Quiet on the Western Front - Avatar: The Way of Water - The Banshees of Inisherin - Elvis - Everything Everywhere All at Once - The Fablemans - TAR - Top Gun: Maverick - The Whale - Women Talking
Best Director - Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front - The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once - Todd Field, TAR - Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin - Steven Spielberg, The Fablemans
Best Actor - Austin Butler, Elvis - Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin - Brendan Fraser, The Whale - Bill Nighy, Living - Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Best Actress - Cate Blanchett, TAR - Viola Davis, The Woman King - Danielle Deadwyler, Till - Ana de Armas, Blonde - Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actor - Paul Dano, The Fabelmans - Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin - Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin - Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once - Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Best Supporting Actress - Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin - Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once - Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness - Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Adapted Screenplay - All Quiet on the Western Front - She Said - The Whale - Women Talking - Living
Best Original Screenplay - Aftersun
- The Banshees of Inisherin - Everything Everywhere All at Once - The Fablemans - TAR
Best Cinematography - All Quiet on the Western Front - The Batman - Elvis - Empire of Light - Top Gun: Maverick
Best Costume Design - Babylon - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Elvis - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery - The Woman King
Best Editing - All Quiet on the Western Front - The Banshees of Inisherin - Elvis - Everything Everywhere All at Once - Top Gun: Maverick
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Babylon - The Batman - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Elvis - The Whale
Best Original Score - Babylon - The Banshees of Inisherin - The Fabelmans - Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio - Women Talking
Best Original Song - "Lift Me Up," Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - "Ciao Papa," Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio - "Naatu Naatu," RRR - "Hold My Hand," Top Gun: Maverick - "Carolina," Where the Crawdads Sing
Best Production Design - All Quiet on the Western Front - Avatar: The Way of Water - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Everything Everywhere All at Once - The Fabelmans
Best Sound - All Quiet on the Western Front - Avatar: The Way of Water - The Batman - Elvis - Top Gun: Maverick
Best Visual Effects - All Quiet on the Western Front - Avatar: The Way of Water - The Batman - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Top Gun: Maverick
Best Animated Feature - Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio - Marcel the Shell With Shoes On - Puss in Boots: The Last Wish - Turning Red - Wendell & Wild
Best Animated Short - The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse - The Flying Sailor - My Year of Dicks - New Moon - Save Ralph
Best Documentary Feature - All That Breathes - All the Beauty and the Bloodshed - Descendant - Fire of Love - Navalny
Best Documentary Short - The Elephant Whisperers - The Flagmakers - Holding Moses - How Do You Measure a Year? - 38 at the Garden
Best International Feature - Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) - Close (Belgium) - All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) - EO (Poland) - Decision to Leave (South Korea)
Best Live Action Short - An Irish Goodbye - Le Pupille - Nakam - The Red Suitcase - Warsha
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avnermoriarti
Badass
Friends say I’ve changed. They’re right.
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Post by avnermoriarti on Jan 21, 2023 20:51:04 GMT
alright, for my favourite moment of award season BEST PICTURE. All Quiet on the Western Front . Avatar: The Way of the Water . Babylon . The Banshees of Inisherin . Elvis . Everything Everywhere All At Once . The Fabelmans . TÁR . Top Gun: Maverick . The Whale (Alt. Women Talking) BEST DIRECTOR. The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All At Once . Todd Field, TÁR . Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin . Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans . Charlotte Wells, Aftersun (this is my only wild-take, here all the voters with daddy issues meet and satisfy film twitter with daddy issues) (Alt. whoever impersonated Luhrmann while shooting Elvis) BEST ACTRESS. Cate Blanchett, TÁR . Ana de Armas, Blonde . Danielle Deadwyler, Till . Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans . Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once (Alt. Viola Davis, The Woman King... so far To Leslie looks like is an internet thing, if she pulls it off, I'll bow to her and kiss her hand) BST ACTOR. Austin Butler, Elvis . Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin . Brendan Fraser, The Whale . Bill Nighy, Living . Adam Sandler, Hustle (and he fucking deserves it !!!) (Alt. Tom Cruise but only because I have to write something here) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever . Hong Chau, The Whale . Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin . Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At One . Carey Mulligan, She Said (Alt. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans) BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR boooring.... . Paul Dano, The Fabelmans . Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once . Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin . Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin . Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (Alt. Tom Hanks, Elvis) BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY. All Quiet on the Western Front . Glass Onion . Living . The Whale (here for... the win???) . Women Talking (Alt. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY. The Banshees of Inisherin . Everything Everywhere All At Once . RRR . TÁR . Triangle of Sadness (Alt. The Fabelmans) BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY. All Quiet on the Western Front . Avatar: The Way of the Water . The Batman . Bardo . Top Gun: Maverick (Alt. lol anything... Elvis) BEST COSTUME DESIGN. Babylon . Black Panther: Wakanda Forever . Elvis . Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris . The Woman King (Alt. Corsage) BEST EDITING. All Quiet on the Western Front . The Banshees of Inisherin . Elvis . Everything Everywhere All At Once . Top Gun: Maverick (Alt. Avatar: The Way of the Water) BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING. All Quiet on the Western Front . The Batman . Black Panther: Wakanda Forever . Elvis . The Whale (Alt. Blonde) BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN. All Quiet on the Western Front . Avatar: The Way of the Water . Babylon . Black Panther: Wakanda Forever . Elvis (Alt. Glass Onion) BEST SCORE. Babylon . The Banshees of Inisherin . The Fabelmans . Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio . Women Talking (Alt. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) BEST SONG. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio - Ciao Papa . RRR - Naatu Naatu . Tell It Like a Woman - Applause . Till - Stand Up . Top Gun: Maverick - Hold My Hand (Alt. Taylor Swift Carolina) BEST SOUND. All Quiet on the Western Front . Avatar: The Way of the Water . Babylon . Elvis . Top Gun: Maverick (Alt. The Batman) BEST VISUAL EFFECTS. Avatar: The Way of the Water . Black Panther: Wakanda Forever . Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness . Nope . Thirteen Lives (Alt. The Batman) BEST ANIMATED FEATURE. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio . Marcel the Shell with Shoes On . My Father's Dragon . Puss in Boots: The Last Wish . Turning Red (Alt. Wendell and Wild) BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE. All that Breathes . All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (won't be surprised if this one doesn't get the nom, the branch resent the "popular") . Descendant . Fire of Love . Navalny (Alt. The Janes) BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM. All Quiet on the Western Front . Argentina, 1985 . Bardo . EO . The Quiet Girl (Alt. would love to predict Park but the film never took off. I guess Close) congratulations in advance to the nominees in the short categories...
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JC/MC
New Member
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Post by JC/MC on Jan 21, 2023 20:54:59 GMT
Best Picture All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar: The Way of Water The Banshees of Inisherin Everything Everywhere All at Once Elvis The Fabelmans Tár Top Gun: Maverick The Whale Women Talking ALT: The Woman King
Best Director Edward Berger - All Quiet on the Western Front Todd Field - Tár Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All at Once Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans ALT: James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Adapted Screenplay Glass Onion Living She Said The Whale Women Talking ALT: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Best Original Screenplay The Banshees of Inisherin Elvis Everything Everywhere All at Once The Fabelmans Tár ALT: Triangle of Sadness
Best Actor in a Leading Role Austin Butler - Elvis Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin Brendan Fraser - The Whale Paul Mescal - Aftersun Bill Nighy - Living ALT: Tom Cruise - Top Gun: Maverick
Best Actress in a Leading Role Cate Blanchett - Tár Viola Davis - The Woman King Danielle Deadwyler - Till Ana de Armas - Blonde Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once ALT: Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
Best Actor in a Supporting Role Paul Dano - The Fabelmans Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin Tom Hanks - Elvis Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once ALT: Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway
Best Actress in a Supporting Role Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Hong Chau - The Whale Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All at Once Stephanie Hsu - Everything Everywhere All at Once ALT: Dolly de Leon - Triangle of Sadness
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Post by JangoB on Jan 21, 2023 22:53:20 GMT
Counted how many nominations I'm predicting for the BP nominees and made some changes based on that:
- Replaced Cameron with Luhrmann in Director - Replaced Bardo with Elvis in Cinematography - Replaced Avatar with Banshees in Editing - Replaced The Woman King with EEAAO in Costume Design - Replaced The Batman with EEAAO in Sound
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 21, 2023 23:07:23 GMT
Counted how many nominations I'm predicting for the BP nominees and made some changes based on that: - Replaced Cameron with Luhrmann in Director - Replaced Bardo with Elvis in Cinematography - Replaced Avatar with Banshees in Editing - Replaced The Woman King with EEAAO in Costume Design - Replaced The Batman with EEAAO in Sound Why don't you have All Quiet up for Director or Adapted Screenplay?
BTW - I really wish the WGA released their annual nominees BEFORE the Oscars.
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Post by JangoB on Jan 21, 2023 23:17:22 GMT
Counted how many nominations I'm predicting for the BP nominees and made some changes based on that: - Replaced Cameron with Luhrmann in Director - Replaced Bardo with Elvis in Cinematography - Replaced Avatar with Banshees in Editing - Replaced The Woman King with EEAAO in Costume Design - Replaced The Batman with EEAAO in Sound Why don't you have All Quiet up for Director or Adapted Screenplay?
BTW - I really wish the WGA released their annual nominees BEFORE the Oscars. No particularly significant reason - I just think that the BAFTA dominance of All Quiet is something that we should definitely take into consideration but not overreact to too much. Therefore I have it in plenty of places but not those (for instance, I feel pretty good about my Adapted guesses and just can't find room for anything else). As for WGA, I dunno. They're not that much of a help for predicting anyway because of all their disqualifications. I think it's actually cool to have some big nominations (WGA, ACE) after the Oscars.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 22, 2023 5:43:59 GMT
My predictions on Goldderby:
Best Picture - The Banshees of Inisherin - Everything Everywhere All at Once - TÁR - The Fabelmans - Top Gun: Maverick - Elvis - Avatar: The Way of Water - All Quiet on the Western Front - The Whale - Triangle of Sadness (Alt: Women Talking)
Best Director - The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once - Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans - Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin - Todd Field, TÁR - Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (Alt: James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water)
Best Actress - Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once - Cate Blanchett, TÁR - Viola Davis, The Woman King - Danielle Deadwyler, Till - Ana de Armas, Blonde (Alt: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans)
Best Actor - Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin - Austin Butler, Elvis - Brendan Fraser, The Whale - Bill Nighy, Living - Paul Mescal, Aftersun (Alt: Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick)
Best Supporting Actress - Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forver - Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin - Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once - Hong Chau, The Whale - Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (Alt: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Best Supporting Actor - Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once - Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin - Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin - Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse - Albrecht Schuch, All Quiet on the Western Front (Alt: Paul Dano, The Fabelmans)
Adapted Screenplay - Women Talking - Living - Glass Onion - The Whale - All Quiet on the Western Front (Alt: She Said)
Original Screenplay - Everything Everywhere All at Once - The Banshees of Inisherin - The Fabelmans - TÁR - Triangle of Sadness (Alt: Elvis)
Cinematography - Top Gun: Maverick - Avatar: The Way of Water - All Quiet on the Western Front - Empire of Light - The Batman (Alt: The Fabelmans)
Best International Feature - All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) - Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) - Close (Belgium) - The Quiet Girl (Ireland) - Corsage (Austria) (Alt: Decision to Leave (Korea), I'm predicting it to miss because they apparently hate all Korean movies not named Parasite lmao)
For the remaining categories I just namechecked all the top odds.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 22, 2023 10:11:45 GMT
BEST PICTURE: All Quiet on the Western Front Babylon The Banshees of Inisherin Elvis Everything Everywhere All At Once The Fabelmans TÁR Triangle of Sadness Top Gun: Maverick The Whale (ALT: RRR)
BEST DIRECTOR: Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All At Once Todd Field, TÁR Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (ALT: S. S. Rajamouli, RRR)
BEST ACTOR: Austin Butler, Elvis Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin Brendan Fraser, The Whale Paul Mescal, Aftersun Bill Nighy, Living (ALT: Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick)
BEST ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, TÁR Danielle Deadwyler, Till Ana de Armas, Blonde Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once (ALT: Viola Davis, The Woman King)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin Paul Dano, The Fabelmans Brad Pitt, Babylon Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Hong Chau, The Whale Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once (ALT: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: The Banshees of Inisherin Everything Everywhere All At Once The Fabelmans TÁR Triangle of Sadness
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: All Quiet on the Western Front Living She Said The Whale Women Talking (ALT: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio)
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: All Quiet on the Western Front Argentina, 1985 Decision to Leave EO The Quiet Girl (ALT: Close)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio Marcel the Shell With Shoes On Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Turning Red Wendell and Wild (ALT: My Father’s Dragon)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: All That Breathes All the Beauty and the Bloodshed Descendant Fire of Love Navalny (ALT: The Territory)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: All Quiet on the Western Front Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths The Batman Empire of Light Top Gun: Maverick (ALT: The Batman, I guess?)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar: The Way of Water Babylon Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Elvis (ALT: Everything Everywhere All At Once)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Babylon Elvis Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris The Woman King (ALT: All Quiet on the Western Front)
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: All Quiet on the Western Front Babylon Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Elvis The Whale (ALT: The Batman)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Avatar: The Way of Water The Batman Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Thirteen Lives Top Gun: Maverick (ALT: Nope)
BEST FILM EDITING: All Quiet on the Western Front The Banshees of Inisherin Elvis Everything Everywhere All At Once Top Gun: Maverick (ALT: TÁR)
BEST SOUND: All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar: The Way of Water Elvis Everything Everywhere All At Once Top Gun: Maverick (ALT: Babylon)
BEST SCORE: Babylon The Banshees of Inisherin The Fabelmans Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio Women Talking (ALT: All Quiet On The Western Front)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “Applause” ~ Tell It Like A Woman “Ciao Papa” ~ Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio “Hold My Hand” ~ Top Gun: Maverick “Lift Me Up” ~ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever “Naatu Naatu” ~ RRR (ALT: “Carolina” ~ Where the Crawdads Sing)
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 22, 2023 13:19:35 GMT
Picture All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar: The Way of Water The Banshees of Inisherin Elvis Everything Everywhere All At Once The Fabelmans TÁR Top Gun: Maverick Triangle of Sadness The Whale
Alt: Babylon
Director Berger Daniels Field McDonagh Spielberg
Alt: Östlund
Lead Actor Butler Farrell Fraser Mescal Nighy
Alt: Hanks
Lead Actress Blanchett de Armas Deadwyler Riseborough Yeoh
Alt: Davis
Supporting Actor Dano Gleeson Keoghan Quan Redmayne
Alt: Pitt
Supporting Actress Bassett Chau Condon Curtis De Leon
Alt: Hsu
Original Screenplay The Banshees of Inisherin Everything Everywhere All At Once The Fabelmans TÁR Triangle of Sadness
Alt: Aftersun
Adapted Screenplay All Quiet on the Western Front Living She Said The Whale Women Talking
Alt: Glass Onion
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Post by pessimusreincarnated on Jan 22, 2023 16:50:04 GMT
BEST PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front The Banshees of Inisherin Elvis Everything Everywhere All At Once The Fabelmans TAR Top Gun: Maverick Triangle of Sadness The Whale Women Talking
ALT: Avatar: The Way of Water
BEST DIRECTOR
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All At Once Todd Field, TAR Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick Martin McDonaugh, The Banshees of Inisherin Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
ALT: James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler, Elvis Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin Brendan Fraser, The Whale Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans Bill Nighy, Living
ALT: Paul Mescal, Aftersun
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, TAR Viola Davis, The Woman King Danielle Deadwyler, Till Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
ALT: Ana de Armas, Blonde
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
ALT: Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once
ALT: Hong Chau, The Whale
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Banshees of Inisherin Everything Everywhere All At Once The Fabelmans Triangle of Sadness TAR
ALT: Aftersun
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All Quiet on the Western Front Glass Onion Living The Whale Women Talking
ALT: She Said
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jan 22, 2023 18:25:07 GMT
BEST PICTURE Everything Everywhere All at Once The Banshees of Inishirin The Fabelmans TÁR Elvis All Quiet on the Western Front Top Gun: Maverick The Whale The Triangle of Sadness Avatar: The Way of Water
Alt. Women Talking
BEST DIRECTOR Daniels, Everything Everywhere All At Once Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inishirin Todd Field, TÁR Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
Alt. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST ACTOR Austin Butler, Elvis Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inishirin Brendan Fraser, The Whale Bill Nighy, Living Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Alt. Jeremy Pope. The Inspection
BEST ACTRESS Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once Cate Blanchett, TÁR Ana de Armas, Blonde Danielle Deadwyler. Till Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Alt. Viola Davis, The Woman King
; Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inishirin Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once Barry Keough, The Banshees of Inishirin Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Alt. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inishirin Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Hong Chau, The Whale, Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once Dolly de Leon, The Triangle of Sadness
Alt. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Everything Everywhere All at Once The Banshees of Inisherin The Fabelmans Tár Triangle of Sadness
Alt. Aftersun
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Women Talking Living She Said Glass Onion The Whale
Alt.
All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE Close All Quiet on the Western Front Argentina, 1985 Decision to Leave The Quiet Girl
Alt. EO
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