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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2023 18:42:24 GMT
I was jesting. If Riseborough's nomination were revoked, would it mean only 4 nominees for this category? They didn't replace the nominee when "Alone Not Yet Alone" got invalidated. Gotcha. I do think that if anyone has to be made an example of here, it will be Fisher for specifically naming Davis and Deadwyler as "locks" - which in all honesty probably was a highly inappropriate thing for an Academy member to do.
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Post by ibbi on Jan 27, 2023 18:42:46 GMT
I had just finished watching Navalny when I heard the news, so the parallels made it hit even harder. I just had to weep, shake my head, and ask the question: "WHEN will the cycle of corruption end?"
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2023 18:56:23 GMT
And this will teach our old girl to never doubt the power of Michelle Williams and a little bob wig again. I know that.
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Post by michael128 on Jan 27, 2023 21:13:34 GMT
Kind of fucked that Frances didn’t lend the same type of support to Gaipa back in the day.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 28, 2023 3:37:55 GMT
here's a crazy thought. I'm wondering if Riseborough could possibly win. Overcoming Blanchett AND Yeoh is a tough ask but we saw last year with CODA how a late surge can happen when voters are seeing something in the first time after the nominations announcement. My guess is that despite Riseborough getting enough support for the nom, many voters will still be discovering her performance for weeks to come while Blanchett and Yeoh have already been seen by probably everyone. The last leaves the biggest impression.
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Post by Allenism on Jan 28, 2023 3:57:32 GMT
I mean, she's in two Best Picture winners and she was with Clint Eastwood for a while. I was jesting. If Riseborough's nomination were revoked, would it mean only 4 nominees for this category? I'd imagine they'd nominate both Davis and Deadwyler as the ultimate overcorrection. Fuck a limit of 5.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2023 4:09:02 GMT
Yeah, there's nothing going to come from this. It's just a PR move to basically have the Academy "save face" by looking into it in order to placate the outcry but nothing that was done is anything that studios don't do on a far grander scale. And there is precedent: Nicholas Chartier was banned from attending the Oscars but he still won for The Hurt Locker for outright telling people not to vote for Avatar. Riseborough didn't do anything like that. Yeah, the best they can get is Frances Fisher specifically naming the competition, but unless she was told on behalf of the film's campaign to do that, there's no foul play here and the most they'd probably do is suspend her membership rights for a year. You can't make networking against the rules. Seems this also could be an issue for Fisher (see bolded part - she tagged multiple Academy members on a post with a quote mentioning Blanchett by name)?
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 28, 2023 4:23:22 GMT
here's a crazy thought. I'm wondering if Riseborough could possibly win. Overcoming Blanchett AND Yeoh is a tough ask but we saw last year with CODA how a late surge can happen when voters are seeing something in the first time after the nominations announcement. My guess is that despite Riseborough getting enough support for the nom, many voters will still be discovering her performance for weeks to come while Blanchett and Yeoh have already been seen by probably everyone. The last leaves the biggest impression. The nomination is one thing - there are approx 1,400 in the Acting Branch. Total AMPAS is approx 9,500 for voting the winner. The Diff is A LOT to make up.
Also, unlike the nominations where it by preferential ballot for the Top 5, the winner for acting is by popular vote. 1 vote for each of the 4 acting categories.
CODA surged at SAG last year, but was already on a lot of regional critics lists prior to that. It was big at Sundance, made NBR Top 10, was nominated for Picture at the Globe.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 28, 2023 4:52:56 GMT
here's a crazy thought. I'm wondering if Riseborough could possibly win. Overcoming Blanchett AND Yeoh is a tough ask but we saw last year with CODA how a late surge can happen when voters are seeing something in the first time after the nominations announcement. My guess is that despite Riseborough getting enough support for the nom, many voters will still be discovering her performance for weeks to come while Blanchett and Yeoh have already been seen by probably everyone. The last leaves the biggest impression. CODA surged at SAG last year, but was already on a lot of regional critics lists prior to that. It was big at Sundance, made NBR Top 10, was nominated for Picture at the Globe.
all true and yet it was still deep under the radar until after the Oscar nominations were announced. If all the voters who discovered it after the announcement had watched it before the nomination period, it would have definitely received more nominations. Best director, quite possibly best song & actress, maybe even supporting actress for Matlin. The passion for it materialized once voters actually watched it. You make fair points. I'm not saying it'd be easy and Riseborough being absent from BAFTA and SAG hampers her momentum, but that could be countered by Yeoh and Blanchett splitting votes and enough passion materializing behind Riseborough with voters who currently have yet to see her (which I assume is most of the voters). Look, I'm definitely still in camp Blanchett but if anyone else wins other than Yeoh, count on it being Riseborough before it's de Armas or Williams.
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Post by PromNightCarrie on Jan 28, 2023 5:03:05 GMT
Yeah, there's nothing going to come from this. It's just a PR move to basically have the Academy "save face" by looking into it in order to placate the outcry but nothing that was done is anything that studios don't do on a far grander scale. And there is precedent: Nicholas Chartier was banned from attending the Oscars but he still won for The Hurt Locker for outright telling people not to vote for Avatar. Riseborough didn't do anything like that. Yeah, the best they can get is Frances Fisher specifically naming the competition, but unless she was told on behalf of the film's campaign to do that, there's no foul play here and the most they'd probably do is suspend her membership rights for a year. You can't make networking against the rules. Yeah, now I wouldn't have done what Frances Fisher did and drop other names as "locks" to promote the voting for that performance. But that was on her. One member (to my understanding?). Actually, it read like what I imagine private emails between members are really like. She just had it out there. I was heavy into the races during the Miramax takeover days (back when I was active in trying to see everything with buzz). So I remember hearing about the specialized gift bags and screenings to old members who won't bother watching anything else. This is something different from what we're used to because the social media activity made things very open to the public.
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Post by stephen on Jan 28, 2023 5:21:26 GMT
Yeah, the best they can get is Frances Fisher specifically naming the competition, but unless she was told on behalf of the film's campaign to do that, there's no foul play here and the most they'd probably do is suspend her membership rights for a year. You can't make networking against the rules. Yeah, now I wouldn't have done what Frances Fisher did and drop other names as "locks" to promote the voting for that performance. But that was on her. One member (to my understanding?). Actually, it read like what I imagine private emails between members are really like. She just had it out there. I was heavy into the races during the Miramax takeover days (back when I was active in trying to see everything with buzz). So I remember hearing about the specialized gift bags and screenings to old members who won't bother watching anything else. This is something different from what we're used to because the social media activity made things very open to the public. Remember when Tobey Maguire got nominated by the Golden Globes for Brothers in exchange for Blu-ray players?
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 28, 2023 12:04:52 GMT
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Post by Archie on Jan 28, 2023 14:13:07 GMT
This is not looking good. More info is coming out and they really might rescind her nomination.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2023 17:22:47 GMT
This is not looking good. More info is coming out and they really might rescind her nomination. I really don't think they should punish Riseborough in this instance. The only person who seems to have broken the rules is Frances Fisher. This may well be why FYC campaigns are generally left to publicists who are familiar with the rules...
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 28, 2023 17:43:48 GMT
At most Fisher gets a temp ban. I'd be shocked if the nomination gets rescinded and the backlash to that would be extreme.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2023 17:50:31 GMT
At most Fisher gets a temp ban. I'd be shocked if the nomination gets rescinded and the backlash to that would be extreme. You don't think they might expel her?
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 28, 2023 17:58:35 GMT
CODA surged at SAG last year, but was already on a lot of regional critics lists prior to that. It was big at Sundance, made NBR Top 10, was nominated for Picture at the Globe.
all true and yet it was still deep under the radar until after the Oscar nominations were announced. If all the voters who discovered it after the announcement had watched it before the nomination period, it would have definitely received more nominations. Best director, quite possibly best song & actress, maybe even supporting actress for Matlin. The passion for it materialized once voters actually watched it. You make fair points. I'm not saying it'd be easy and Riseborough being absent from BAFTA and SAG hampers her momentum, but that could be countered by Yeoh and Blanchett splitting votes and enough passion materializing behind Riseborough with voters who currently have yet to see her (which I assume is most of the voters). Look, I'm definitely still in camp Blanchett but if anyone else wins other than Yeoh, count on it being Riseborough before it's de Armas or Williams. It's going to come down to what happens at BAFTA and SAG. But look what happened at Critics Choice. TAR has always more of a performance centric film. Whereas there other categories they can reward EEAAO. And Quan is already undeniable for acting.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 28, 2023 18:06:34 GMT
At most Fisher gets a temp ban. I'd be shocked if the nomination gets rescinded and the backlash to that would be extreme. You don't think they might expel her? That seems really extreme for a tweet. I've read that she might have her membership suspended for up to a year and that makes more sense.
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Post by quetee on Jan 28, 2023 19:31:25 GMT
Beyond tacky to tell people she only needs 218 people to rank her 1st.
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Post by michael128 on Jan 28, 2023 20:53:14 GMT
Beyond tacky to tell people she only needs 218 people to rank her 1st. Isn’t there something like 1,400 members in the acting branch? 218 kind of seems like a huge amount to me
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Post by quetee on Jan 28, 2023 21:43:52 GMT
Beyond tacky to tell people she only needs 218 people to rank her 1st. Isn’t there something like 1,400 members in the acting branch? 218 kind of seems like a huge amount to me Yes, there's about 1300. The thing is though by telling people that and then doing so really screwed other people up. Where was the critic support?
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 28, 2023 21:57:01 GMT
She shouldn't have mentioned any of the other nominees. I suspect the final vote was pretty close. But did it propel someone like ana de armas to get more votes - people thinking she wasn't a lock. Otherwise, she would have Eddie Redmayne herself out. Her film is horrible.
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Post by stephen on Jan 28, 2023 22:03:59 GMT
She shouldn't have mentioned any of the other nominees. I suspect the final vote was pretty close. But did it propel someone like ana de armas to get more votes - people thinking she wasn't a lock. Otherwise, she would have Eddie Redmayne herself out. Her film is horrible. Honestly, I suspect that Yeoh and Blanchett were so far ahead of the rest that literally, a few dozen votes could've decided the remaining spots. But it should be noted that while Deadwyler certainly suffered here for being what was essentially the only thing her film really had in contention, Davis's film was completely blanked. Across the board. Not a single nomination for any of its techs. I just don't think they vibed with The Woman King. Momentum really did decide this one. Riseborough proved that the months-long song-and-dance can be skipped if one marshals their resources at the right time (which completely undercuts the industry's demand and desire for the campaign circuit, which is incredibly lucrative for them -- that is what they're really investigating and not the idea that white people rallied to block two black women from being nominated in Best Actress), and Williams's camp must have seriously went into overdrive when she missed SAG and BAFTA. Ana de Armas was overlooked by pundits and predictors most of the season because of the bad buzz around her film but she had Netflix money and the baitiest role in contention (a film about the industry, no less!) and she had made every major precursor despite all the negative buzz, and people overlooked what was a very strong third-placer there.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2023 22:20:09 GMT
stephen - Frances Fisher genuinely did break the rules, though - I don't think it would be appropriate for the Academy to ignore that.
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Post by stephen on Jan 28, 2023 22:22:37 GMT
stephen - Frances Fisher genuinely did break the rules, though - I don't think it would be appropriate for the Academy to ignore that. Sure. And I am fine with Fisher being disciplined because she overstepped boundaries (as silly as those boundaries are when compared to the gladhanding and undermining studios will do behind the scenes). But we have precedent here of people doing the exact same thing without stripping the nomination away. In 2003, an FYC ad ran for Shohreh Aghdashloo which did the exact same thing.
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