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Post by stephen on Jan 11, 2023 16:59:59 GMT
Also, thank Christ that Carey Mulligan missed. Not just because it's the worst kind of category fraud, but it's also a bad performance.
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Archie
Based
Eraserhead son or Inland Empire daughter?
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Post by Archie on Jan 11, 2023 17:01:03 GMT
I'm glad more people are realizing that Dano >>>>>>>>>> Williams
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Post by stephen on Jan 11, 2023 17:03:04 GMT
I think Dolly will rally at BAFTA and knock out one of Hsu or Chau. And I'm not entirely sure of Bassett's security despite her Globe win. Her Globe win wasn't random, like Jodie Foster 2 years ago. She, Curtis and Condon are the only 3 who have made GG, BFCA, BAFTA (long list) and now SAG. Bassett is someone who is very well respected in the industry. I never said it was random, but she does have to contend with genre bias. There's a reason that no MCU performance has yet to break through in an acting category with the Academy. Inevitably it will likely happen given how many acclaimed actors they get, but it's still a glass ceiling they have to break and the category is massively in flux. Bassett is someone who could be the one to do it (and she's gotten further than anyone else has, to be sure), but if she does miss in the end, I wouldn't be shocked by it, even if she were to win SAG. If Black Panther: Wakanda Forever were stronger across the board, I'd be more confident in her chances, but right now I still say she's in third place . . . and I only really feel like Condon and Curtis are secure (even if I feel Curtis's win equity overall is lesser than Bassett's, even if she is safer for the nomination).
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 11, 2023 17:05:03 GMT
Oh, Redmayne. I guess our skunk weed has something to it. Not really - not remotely at all - actually. The person who said the skunk weed comment you're referencing (incorrectly) literally said Redmayne could be nominated for SAG did he not (yes, he did) - the skunk weed just transferred - like the smoke from a bowl - into that "Top Gun is winning BP nonsense" ........or something or other.......
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Post by PromNightCarrie on Jan 11, 2023 17:13:02 GMT
Definitely seeing that Everything Everywhere All at Once. That looks wild. I have my Paramount Plus so ready to go.
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Barbie
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Post by Barbie on Jan 11, 2023 17:19:58 GMT
Janelle Monae getting snubbed, LOL thank god! She was BAD in Glass Onion.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 11, 2023 17:31:40 GMT
so Women Talking getting ensemble without any individual nods proves it had too many contenders and they canceled each other out.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 11, 2023 17:33:52 GMT
also, if de Armas gets an Oscar nod I pity future completionists who have to suffer through Blonde like I suffered through The Iron Lady. It's not even that great a performance.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 11, 2023 17:34:16 GMT
so Women Talking getting ensemble without any individual nods proves it had too many contenders and they canceled each other out. Or…it’s just a really great ensemble.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 11, 2023 17:35:40 GMT
so Women Talking getting ensemble without any individual nods proves it had too many contenders and they canceled each other out. Or…it’s just a really great ensemble. but they all keep underperforming in the categories. Different people think Buckley, Foy and Ivey are the MVPs. There hasn't been consensus strength behind any of them.
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Post by JangoB on Jan 11, 2023 17:41:44 GMT
Oh, Redmayne. I guess our skunk weed has something to it. Not really - not remotely at all - actually. The person who said the skunk weed comment you're referencing (incorrectly) literally said Redmayne could be nominated for SAG did he not (yes, he did) - the skunk weed just transferred - like the smoke from a bowl - into that "Top Gun is winning BP nonsense" ........or something or other....... You just seemed especially bullish on this matter, even if you did cover both bases with the "he could!" mentions. I never quite understood why that collective confidence (and that's too strong of a word tbh) about Redmayne of all people bothered you when there's so much other prediction-related nonsense to make fun of
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 11, 2023 17:46:25 GMT
I'm no fan of Women Talking (haaaaaaaaaaated it) but this idea that there's "no passion" for it goes too far - it appeals to a certain niche who not only love it - they feel it matters and is well played.......not surprised by its showing up here and may be able to get some momentum ........maybe
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 11, 2023 17:50:26 GMT
Janelle Monae getting snubbed, LOL thank god! She was BAD in Glass Onion. Particularly grating screen presence in general........lately anyway - not always but here and especially in Antebellum...........Glass Onion has lost all its "heat"
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 11, 2023 18:17:16 GMT
the industry is really bending over backwards to not nominate Cruise aren't they. Happy for Sandler though, it's a good performance in a solid film. Too bad he couldn't get industry love in 2019
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jan 11, 2023 18:27:53 GMT
That seems like a conflict of interest on Netflix's part... ABC (Disney) has hosted the Oscars for years now.
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Post by stephen on Jan 11, 2023 18:29:05 GMT
That seems like a conflict of interest on Netflix's part... ABC (Disney) has hosted the Oscars for years now. Disney owns everything, though. It's hard to do anything Hollywood-based that doesn't at least have the Mouse's influence somewhere.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 11, 2023 18:49:11 GMT
So folks... who the fuck is getting that #5 Best Actor slot at the Oscars? put me down as another for Mescal. Could still see a wildcard like Calva or Pope sneak in but I think the Brits unify behind Mescal.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 11, 2023 19:08:32 GMT
ABC (Disney) has hosted the Oscars for years now. Disney owns everything, though. It's hard to do anything Hollywood-based that doesn't at least have the Mouse's influence somewhere. Yeah but a lot of networks and streamers are owned by companies that own or are affiliated with movie studios. Why is this any different for Netflix to stream the award?
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havok2
Junior Member
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Post by havok2 on Jan 11, 2023 19:14:18 GMT
the industry is really bending over backwards to not nominate Cruise aren't they. Happy for Sandler though, it's a good performance in a solid film. Too bad he couldn't get industry love in 2019 I still think he makes it to Oscars
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jan 11, 2023 19:23:01 GMT
Butler will probably win here but with Banshees with 5 nominations and Fraser who coattailed Chau this is closer than we think. I think Farrell still has the edge and I'm not sure why people are thinking he's not in contention for it. He's got the strongest film of the three, he's been in the industry long enough, banner year, and he fits the general profile of a Best Actor winner in terms of age and career path. I get that the performance isn't as outwardly baity as what Butler and Fraser are doing, but Farrell has been racking them up and hasn't really lost any momentum, and he's the likely BAFTA frontrunner. I think Butler's a solid second placer right now who could overtake in the home stretch, but I think it's still Colin's to lose. Farrell has been racking up a lot of wins but it doesn't really feel like a traditional Oscar winning performance. Butler is the type of performance the industry usually rewards so I think he is slightly ahead until SAG. To me, it feels similar to Redmayne vs Keaton. Birdman won Best Picture but Redmayne still won Best Actor.
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Post by stephen on Jan 11, 2023 19:40:10 GMT
I think Farrell still has the edge and I'm not sure why people are thinking he's not in contention for it. He's got the strongest film of the three, he's been in the industry long enough, banner year, and he fits the general profile of a Best Actor winner in terms of age and career path. I get that the performance isn't as outwardly baity as what Butler and Fraser are doing, but Farrell has been racking them up and hasn't really lost any momentum, and he's the likely BAFTA frontrunner. I think Butler's a solid second placer right now who could overtake in the home stretch, but I think it's still Colin's to lose. Farrell has been racking up a lot of wins but it doesn't really feel like a traditional Oscar winning performance. Butler is the type of performance the industry usually rewards so I think he is slightly ahead until SAG. To me, it feels similar to Redmayne vs Keaton. Birdman won Best Picture but Redmayne still won Best Actor. I've gone over it in the past, but Redmayne was a Tony winner who had appeared in high-profile awards contenders before he got nominated for The Theory of Everything (whereas this is Butler's first big splash), and his closest competitor was a Hollywood outsider on a comeback narrative. That latter descriptor matches Fraser far more than it does Farrell. Farrell, meanwhile, has a lot in his corner that I think people are deliberately overlooking for one reason or another, and I can't understand why. Farrell's may not be a traditional Oscar-winning performance, but Butler is not a traditional Oscar-winning actor if we go by age and career trends. Both of them would be unorthodox in their own ways. Yes, Butler is playing Elvis Presley in a biopic (a favored category for voters), but Farrell's not lost any real ground and Butler's not likely to win BAFTA unless somehow the momentum shifts, whereas Redmayne took SAG and BAFTA against Keaton. Lately, Globe + BAFTA wins out over Globe + SAG in a split race. Butler could win but I think Farrell has the upper hand by virtue of the reasons I have enumerated, and now Butler's film underperformed at SAG and DGA (both places I expected it to feature in Ensemble and Director, given how much the guilds were going for it). For now, my confidence hasn't wavered.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 11, 2023 20:48:23 GMT
Like part of me still thinks that Redmayne is that guy who gets a few precursor nods but ultimately misses but who else do you put there? Pitt maybe but he probably should have gotten in here if he was since they went for Babylon ensemble. Ditto Whishaw? I think Hirsch is done. Maybe Tyree Henry gets the Bafta and then the nod? His movie isn't any stronger than Redmayne's though and if he gets in Bafta it would be a jury thing probably. Updated my Goldderby and I guess I’m keeping him in my predictions until I can think of someone better.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 11, 2023 21:10:03 GMT
Farrell has been racking up a lot of wins but it doesn't really feel like a traditional Oscar winning performance. Butler is the type of performance the industry usually rewards so I think he is slightly ahead until SAG. To me, it feels similar to Redmayne vs Keaton. Birdman won Best Picture but Redmayne still won Best Actor. unfortunately I agree. There are too many recent examples of these kinds of showy makeup-heavy biopic showbiz performances winning Oscars to comfortably bet against Butler, and Elvis as a whole seems to have comfortably more support than some of those other films like Tammy Faye, BH and definitely Judy. I think Farrell is in contention but Butler's performance feels tailor-made to win. It just looks like such an obvious choice for them.
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Post by Mattsby on Jan 12, 2023 1:59:04 GMT
Uhhhh, so no Eric Roberts in the Babylon ensemble nominees?
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jan 12, 2023 4:05:10 GMT
Fraser needed Hong Chau to get in and Elvis to underperform here to stay in the conversation, so I'm sticking with Fraser until he loses SAG...
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