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Post by stephen on Jan 11, 2023 15:37:01 GMT
Also, like, Robbie's DOA for a nod, right? She missed SAG and the BAFTA longlist.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 11, 2023 15:38:54 GMT
SAG keep Babylon and Women Talking on life support. Still have no fucking clue about those last 3 spots in BP.
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Archie
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Eraserhead son or Inland Empire daughter?
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Post by Archie on Jan 11, 2023 15:38:57 GMT
I think this is our Oscar 5 for supporting actress.
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havok2
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Post by havok2 on Jan 11, 2023 15:39:14 GMT
CAST Babylon - Banshees - Everything - The Fabelmans - Women Talking ACTOR Butler - Farrell - Fraser - Nighy - Sandler ACTRESS Blanchett - Davis - De Armas - Deadwyler - Yeoh SUPPORTING ACTOR Dano - Gleeson - Keoghan - Quan - Redmayne SUPPORTING ACTRESS Bassett - Condon - Chau - Curtis - Hsu Babylon and Women Talking got Ensemble, but no individual acting awards. The Fabelmans only received a nomination for Dano. No Michelle Williams.
Avatar 2 and Top Gun 2 only got stunt ensemble.
No Tom Cruise, but yes Adam Sandler.
Banshees and Everything has the most nominations - 4
Do people here still like Top Gun for Best Picture?
Wait for DGA
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Post by Joaquim on Jan 11, 2023 15:39:46 GMT
So folks... who the fuck is getting that #5 Best Actor slot at the Oscars? Sandler, to make up for the Uncut Gems snub
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Post by stephen on Jan 11, 2023 15:40:15 GMT
I think this is our Oscar 5 for supporting actress. I think Dolly will rally at BAFTA and knock out one of Hsu or Chau. And I'm not entirely sure of Bassett's security despite her Globe win.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 11, 2023 15:43:11 GMT
SAG keep Babylon and Women Talking on life support. Still have no fucking clue about those last 3 spots in BP. AQOTWF is my 8th, then I have Triangle of Sadness and The Whale but Babylon showing up in Ensemble today gives me pause.
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havok2
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Post by havok2 on Jan 11, 2023 15:44:47 GMT
Babylon is a bomb with shit critical support. This was an actor's move just like so many others in the past.
You guys really don't understand nuance
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 11, 2023 15:45:20 GMT
SAG keep Babylon and Women Talking on life support. Still have no fucking clue about those last 3 spots in BP. AQOTWF is my 8th, then I have Triangle of Sadness and The Whale but Babylon showing up in Ensemble today gives me pause. I think I agree with you about AQOTWF and Triangle. Might be leaning Babylon for 10th.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 11, 2023 15:47:16 GMT
AQOTWF is my 8th, then I have Triangle of Sadness and The Whale but Babylon showing up in Ensemble today gives me pause. I think I agree with you about AQOTWF and Triangle. Might be leaning Babylon for 10th. I also think there's an outside chance that Aftersun makes it, but it should also get Wells in Director, which is a bit hard to predict right now.
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Post by stephen on Jan 11, 2023 15:48:02 GMT
Glass Onion really got hosed here, it should be noted.
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SZilla
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Post by SZilla on Jan 11, 2023 15:51:43 GMT
I thinking De Armas might pull it off and get the nom.
As for Best Actor #5, Mescal makes sense but I still think it’s possible Jackman gets in. His movie’s getting a wide release soon so he might be getting more focus and while the film isn’t getting raves, he apparently still is and he’s such a beloved figure in Hollywood I think he could sneak in. Then again, I thought the same with Jackman and The Front Runner…
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Post by JangoB on Jan 11, 2023 15:53:05 GMT
So David Lynch is now officially a SAG nominee? Nice
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Post by stephen on Jan 11, 2023 15:56:59 GMT
I thinking De Armas might pull it off and get the nom. As for Best Actor #5, Mescal makes sense but I still think it’s possible Jackman gets in. His movie’s getting a wide release soon so he might be getting more focus and while the film isn’t getting raves, he apparently still is and he’s such a beloved figure in Hollywood I think he could sneak in. Then again, I thought the same with Jackman and The Front Runner… I just can't see a Jackman resurgence. The Son was drubbed like no presumed contender I've seen in years. I think it's Mescal. He just smacks of passion voting, and the Academy will likely be more attentive to Aftersun than the Globes or SAG would have. Cruise could still do it, but as I don't think he's getting the BAFTA nod, it would be hard to imagine he could get the Oscar nomination without at least one major industry precursor to his name, considering his profile and the film's general broad appeal. Mescal at least makes sense if he gets the BAFTA nod.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 11, 2023 16:14:57 GMT
Like part of me still thinks that Redmayne is that guy who gets a few precursor nods but ultimately misses but who else do you put there? Pitt maybe but he probably should have gotten in here if he was since they went for Babylon ensemble. Ditto Whishaw? I think Hirsch is done. Maybe Tyree Henry gets the Bafta and then the nod? His movie isn't any stronger than Redmayne's though and if he gets in Bafta it would be a jury thing probably.
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Post by stephen on Jan 11, 2023 16:25:45 GMT
Like part of me still thinks that Redmayne is that guy who gets a few precursor nods but ultimately misses but who else do you put there? Pitt maybe but he probably should have gotten in here if he was since they went for Babylon ensemble. Ditto Whishaw? I think Hirsch is done. Maybe Tyree Henry gets the Bafta and then the nod? His movie isn't any stronger than Redmayne's though and if he gets in Bafta it would be a jury thing probably. Redmayne could easily be the Jared Leto of the season, but it depends on where BAFTA goes. If he gets in there, I see no reason to leave him out. Pitt -- he makes sense as a Globes pick because of his star stature (and man, they kept pointing out last night to an almost uncomfortable degree), but if SAG didn't bite, I just can't see him getting further than this. Yeah, Hirsch is probably done. No chance of a BAFTA rebound so he would need a hard surge for The Fabelmans at the end which I just don't really see. Brian Tyree Henry feels like more of a SAG pick than a BAFTA one, and if he missed here, I just don't really see him rallying in the home stretch, especially as Causeway doesn't feel like a movie BAFTA would go for. But he could get juried. I still think Whishaw's in with a shout, especially if he gets BAFTA and if a late surge happens for Women Talking.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 11, 2023 16:27:29 GMT
Like part of me still thinks that Redmayne is that guy who gets a few precursor nods but ultimately misses but who else do you put there? Pitt maybe but he probably should have gotten in here if he was since they went for Babylon ensemble. Ditto Whishaw? I think Hirsch is done. Maybe Tyree Henry gets the Bafta and then the nod? His movie isn't any stronger than Redmayne's though and if he gets in Bafta it would be a jury thing probably. Redmayne could easily be the Jared Leto of the season, but it depends on where BAFTA goes. If he gets in there, I see no reason to leave him out. Pitt -- he makes sense as a Globes pick because of his star stature (and man, they kept pointing out last night to an almost uncomfortable degree), but if SAG didn't bite, I just can't see him getting further than this. Yeah, Hirsch is probably done. No chance of a BAFTA rebound so he would need a hard surge for The Fabelmans at the end which I just don't really see. Brian Tyree Henry feels like more of a SAG pick than a BAFTA one, and if he missed here, I just don't really see him rallying in the home stretch, especially as Causeway doesn't feel like a movie BAFTA would go for. But he could get juried. I still think Whishaw's in with a shout, especially if he gets BAFTA and if a late surge happens for Women Talking. Hard to use the Baftas for predictions nowadays unless you are sure they are not a Jury pick.
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Post by stephen on Jan 11, 2023 16:29:18 GMT
Redmayne could easily be the Jared Leto of the season, but it depends on where BAFTA goes. If he gets in there, I see no reason to leave him out. Pitt -- he makes sense as a Globes pick because of his star stature (and man, they kept pointing out last night to an almost uncomfortable degree), but if SAG didn't bite, I just can't see him getting further than this. Yeah, Hirsch is probably done. No chance of a BAFTA rebound so he would need a hard surge for The Fabelmans at the end which I just don't really see. Brian Tyree Henry feels like more of a SAG pick than a BAFTA one, and if he missed here, I just don't really see him rallying in the home stretch, especially as Causeway doesn't feel like a movie BAFTA would go for. But he could get juried. I still think Whishaw's in with a shout, especially if he gets BAFTA and if a late surge happens for Women Talking. Hard to use the Baftas for predictions nowadays unless you are sure they are not a Jury pick. Yeah, but that's why you gauge them against the other nominees. Like if Redmayne gets in over someone like Keoghan, that's passion. If the three "locks" get in and then you've got someone like Henry or Whishaw, they probably got juried.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 11, 2023 16:33:51 GMT
Hard to use the Baftas for predictions nowadays unless you are sure they are not a Jury pick. Yeah, but that's why you gauge them against the other nominees. Like if Redmayne gets in over someone like Keoghan, that's passion. If the three "locks" get in and then you've got someone like Henry or Whishaw, they probably got juried. I do think Redmayne would have had a pretty good chance of getting in under the old rules for what it’s worth.
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Post by stephen on Jan 11, 2023 16:35:39 GMT
Yeah, but that's why you gauge them against the other nominees. Like if Redmayne gets in over someone like Keoghan, that's passion. If the three "locks" get in and then you've got someone like Henry or Whishaw, they probably got juried. I do think Redmayne would have had a pretty good chance of getting in under the old rules for what it’s worth. I do, too. He is obviously the most vulnerable of the contenders who have hit the big precursors so far, but he has home-field advantage at BAFTA and prior winner status is always going to be a boon.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 11, 2023 16:42:27 GMT
I do think Redmayne would have had a pretty good chance of getting in under the old rules for what it’s worth. I do, too. He is obviously the most vulnerable of the contenders who have hit the big precursors so far, but he has home-field advantage at BAFTA and prior winner status is always going to be a boon. Yeah I need to come around to him being stronger than I thought. I actually predicted him in these two places I just wasn’t thinking the others would miss. I’m fine with the nod if he gets it though. I thought he was quite good and so was the movie.
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Post by stephen on Jan 11, 2023 16:45:37 GMT
I do, too. He is obviously the most vulnerable of the contenders who have hit the big precursors so far, but he has home-field advantage at BAFTA and prior winner status is always going to be a boon. Yeah I need to come around to him being stronger than I thought. I actually predicted him in these two places I just wasn’t thinking the others would miss. I’m fine with the nod if he gets it though. I thought he was quite good and so was the movie. Oh, it's far and away my favourite Redmayne performance, give or take Black Death. His win is pretty underwhelming (he's fine but is primarily a prop in that movie, and Jones does the real heavy lifting) and he's odiously bad in The Danish Girl. But I'd be okay if he got in, as long as he didn't knock out someone like Keoghan (who thankfully seems pretty secure at the #3 slot -- although I do wonder if he might actually be #2, given he might have more individual passion than Gleeson).
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 11, 2023 16:47:00 GMT
Yeah I need to come around to him being stronger than I thought. I actually predicted him in these two places I just wasn’t thinking the others would miss. I’m fine with the nod if he gets it though. I thought he was quite good and so was the movie. Oh, it's far and away my favourite Redmayne performance, give or take Black Death. His win is pretty underwhelming (he's fine but is primarily a prop in that movie, and Jones does the real heavy lifting) and he's odiously bad in The Danish Girl. But I'd be okay if he got in, as long as he didn't knock out someone like Keoghan (who thankfully seems pretty secure at the #3 slot -- although I do wonder if he might actually be #2, given he might have more individual passion than Gleeson). I thought he was really good in Les Mis.
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Post by stephen on Jan 11, 2023 16:49:14 GMT
Oh, it's far and away my favourite Redmayne performance, give or take Black Death. His win is pretty underwhelming (he's fine but is primarily a prop in that movie, and Jones does the real heavy lifting) and he's odiously bad in The Danish Girl. But I'd be okay if he got in, as long as he didn't knock out someone like Keoghan (who thankfully seems pretty secure at the #3 slot -- although I do wonder if he might actually be #2, given he might have more individual passion than Gleeson). I thought he was really good in Les Mis. I really didn't like him there, but I thought Samantha Barks is the only person to come out of that production with any modicum of dignity.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 11, 2023 16:59:41 GMT
I think this is our Oscar 5 for supporting actress. I think Dolly will rally at BAFTA and knock out one of Hsu or Chau. And I'm not entirely sure of Bassett's security despite her Globe win. Her Globe win wasn't random, like Jodie Foster 2 years ago. She, Curtis and Condon are the only 3 who have made GG, BFCA, BAFTA (long list) and now SAG. Bassett is someone who is very well respected in the industry.
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