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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 28, 2022 23:55:46 GMT
I have good news and bad news here. The bad news is, the Writer's Guild of America will announce their annual nominees AFTER the Oscar nominations. The good news is, the Critics Choice Association does a pretty good job of forecasting the Oscar nominees. They went 5 for 5 in 2022, 2020, and 2014. 4 out of 5 in 2019, 2018, 2017, and 2016. 3 out of 5 in 2021 and 2015. Films like Borat (both), Dallas Buyers Club, Straight Outta Compton, The White Tiger, 1917 and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs received little-to-no precursor attention for writing. Borat, 1917 and Dallas only showed up at the WGA. The White Tiger only at WGA and BAFTA. Buster Scruggs had zero, besides winning Adapted Screenplay at the Venice International Film Festival. Critics Choice NomineesSamuel D. Hunter, The Whale Kazuo Ishiguro, Living Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Rebecca Lenkiewicz, She SaidSarah Polley, Women Talking
Strong ContendersIan Stokell, Lesley Paterson & Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western FrontJames Cameron, Rick Jaffa & Amanda Silver, Avatar: The Way of Water Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer & Christopher McQuarrie, Top Gun: Maverick AQOTWF won the NBR award for Best Adapted Screenplay. Maverick, along with the Critics Choice nominees, made the Satellite awards Best Adapted Screenplay line-up. Avatar has a high probability of scoring a Best Picture nomination.
Wildcards Kogonada, After Yang David Kajganich, Bones and All Guillermo del Toro & Patrick McHale, Pinocchio
All three earned a Best Adapted Screenplay nominations from the Chicago Film Critics Association.
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Post by stephen on Dec 29, 2022 0:01:18 GMT
All Quiet on the Western Front Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Living She Said Women Talking
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 29, 2022 0:10:24 GMT
All Quiet on the Western Front Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Living She Said Women Talking Good call with no The Whale. I think that is going to be this year's Being the Ricardos. Why don't you have Top Gun: Maverick? I am currently on the fence between AQOTWF and TG:M.
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Post by JangoB on Dec 29, 2022 0:13:19 GMT
- Glass Onion - Living - She Said - Women Talking - White Noise
No need to comment on the first four and White Noise strikes me as a potential Inherent Vice situation - the branch recognizing a previously (and numerously) nominated writer for his adaptation of a supposedly unadaptable book. Now, I understand that White Noise has barely generated any noise at all as opposed to Inherent Vice back in the day but I still feel that this can absolutely achieve a lone writing nom. Members of this branch will surely check it out even if others might skip it. And they're not against giving movies lone writing nominations.
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Post by stephen on Dec 29, 2022 0:16:33 GMT
All Quiet on the Western Front Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Living She Said Women Talking Good call with no The Whale. I think that is going to be this year's Being the Ricardos. Why don't you have Top Gun: Maverick? I am currently on the fence between AQOTWF and TG:M. Because it's not a film that relies heavily on its screenplay and big action blockbusters and spectacle pictures that do well with the Academy tend to miss here ( Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Titanic, Avatar). If Top Gun: Maverick has enough juice in the tank to get a writing nomination, I'd start seriously considering it as the Best Picture winner.
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 29, 2022 0:23:01 GMT
Good call with no The Whale. I think that is going to be this year's Being the Ricardos. Why don't you have Top Gun: Maverick? I am currently on the fence between AQOTWF and TG:M. Because it's not a film that relies heavily on its screenplay and big action blockbusters and spectacle pictures that do well with the Academy tend to miss here ( Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Titanic, Avatar). If Top Gun: Maverick has enough juice in the tank to get a writing nomination, I'd start seriously considering it as the Best Picture winner. I would throw into the pit Black Panther as well. Why do you think AQOTWF would be seen as "better writing"?
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Post by stephen on Dec 29, 2022 0:27:28 GMT
Because it's not a film that relies heavily on its screenplay and big action blockbusters and spectacle pictures that do well with the Academy tend to miss here ( Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Titanic, Avatar). If Top Gun: Maverick has enough juice in the tank to get a writing nomination, I'd start seriously considering it as the Best Picture winner. I would throw into the pit Black Panther as well. Why do you think AQOTWF would be seen as "better writing"? 1. It's based on one of the most acclaimed novels of the twentieth century, which already spawned a Best Picture winner. 2. There are a lot of big moments, particularly with the Daniel Bruhl storyline, that allows for innovation in the adaptation process, and that would appeal to writers. 3. Netflix seems like they're finally realizing All Quiet is a contender with it hitting the shortlist in so many tech categories.
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 29, 2022 0:43:49 GMT
I would throw into the pit Black Panther as well. Why do you think AQOTWF would be seen as "better writing"? 1. It's based on one of the most acclaimed novels of the twentieth century, which already spawned a Best Picture winner. 2. There are a lot of big moments, particularly with the Daniel Bruhl storyline, that allows for innovation in the adaptation process, and that would appeal to writers. 3. Netflix seems like they're finally realizing All Quiet is a contender with it hitting the shortlist in so many tech categories. Excellent.
4. The Academy has gone more international. They like going for non-English productions.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 29, 2022 1:02:39 GMT
All Quiet on the Western Front Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Living She Said Women Talking Yeah this
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 29, 2022 1:24:10 GMT
Are these other votes for White Noise, The Batman, EO?
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 29, 2022 1:33:38 GMT
Are these other votes for White Noise, The Batman, EO? I did White Noise. Baumbach adapting a National Book Award winner.
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Post by quetee on Dec 29, 2022 1:38:53 GMT
Are these other votes for White Noise, The Batman, EO? I did White Noise. Baumbach adapting a National Book Award winner. nobody appears to care though
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 29, 2022 2:02:59 GMT
I did White Noise. Baumbach adapting a National Book Award winner. nobody appears to care though Not much passion building around anything other than the top 4 contenders either.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 29, 2022 2:14:58 GMT
nobody appears to care though Not much passion building around anything other than the top 4 contenders either. AQOTWF hitting every shortlist it was eligible for could be described as 'passion'.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 29, 2022 2:23:00 GMT
Not much passion building around anything other than the top 4 contenders either. AQOTWF hitting every shortlist it was eligible for could be described as 'passion'. Passion for the techs. Haven’t seen much for the writing besides NBR. The shortlist haul made me feel more comfortable predicting it for cinematography but I don’t see much connection between those and the writing. Black Panther had a huge haul too but I’m not rushing to predict that for any extra above the line besides Bassett.
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Post by stabcaesar on Dec 29, 2022 2:42:00 GMT
I predict the Academy will go populist and nominate Avatar 2 and Top Gun Maberick.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 29, 2022 4:10:00 GMT
I predict the Academy will go populist and nominate Avatar 2 and Top Gun Maberick. What do you have missing out of Living or She Said?
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Post by stabcaesar on Dec 29, 2022 4:51:35 GMT
I predict the Academy will go populist and nominate Avatar 2 and Top Gun Maberick. What do you have missing out of Living or She Said? Living. I think She Said is in.
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dazed
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Post by dazed on Dec 29, 2022 5:02:32 GMT
all quiet on the western front top gun maverick women talking the whale she said
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 29, 2022 7:45:52 GMT
all quiet on the western front top gun maverick women talking the whale she said No Glass Onion?? Interesting, I'd say it's the consensus #2.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 29, 2022 7:56:23 GMT
another vote for White Noise over here Baumbach is highly respected by the writer's branch. I could see it coming from behind like Buster Scruggs. My other four are Glass Onion, Living, She Said, Women Talking. Although I wouldn't be shocked if She Said gets totally blanked and either The Whale overcomes the potential backlash or Western Front sneaks in (which would be awesome). I still think Top Gun is a longshot.
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dazed
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Post by dazed on Dec 29, 2022 8:20:32 GMT
all quiet on the western front top gun maverick women talking the whale she said No Glass Onion?? Interesting, I'd say it's the consensus #2. aw fuck i forgot about glass onion. take out she said and replace it with that
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 29, 2022 13:30:35 GMT
I am a little surprised people are going for White Noise here. Rotten Tomatoes has the film at 64% -- worse than The Whale. The Critics Choice ratings are 2/4 stars and didn't make their Adapted Screenplay list. IMDB has the film at 6.5/10. Yes, Noah Baumbach did write and direct it, but this film is getting far, far less acclaim than Marriage Story or The Squid and the Whale.
While critics are lukewarm on The Whale, audiences seem to very much enjoy it.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 29, 2022 19:39:00 GMT
I am a little surprised people are going for White Noise here. Rotten Tomatoes has the film at 64% -- worse than The Whale. The Critics Choice ratings are 2/4 stars and didn't make their Adapted Screenplay list. IMDB has the film at 6.5/10. Yes, Noah Baumbach did write and direct it, but this film is getting far, far less acclaim than Marriage Story or The Squid and the Whale. While critics are lukewarm on The Whale, audiences seem to very much enjoy it. After the top 4 they are all not great options so I don’t think any prediction is particularly crazy. It’s a pretty weak category that can go about any way. I mean Aronofsky wasn’t nominated for either Black Swan or the Wrestler.
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Post by Joaquim on Jan 2, 2023 19:13:52 GMT
I am now predicting Glass Onion to WIN best adapted screenplay
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