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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 1, 2022 10:16:49 GMT
Better late than never to start a thread I guess. stephen cheesecake Thoughts up to this point??
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Post by stephen on Dec 1, 2022 13:26:38 GMT
L I V I N.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 1, 2022 14:11:32 GMT
Fair enough
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Post by stephen on Dec 1, 2022 15:05:43 GMT
In all seriousness, I'm quite liking it. We're at the final six and pretty much everyone not named Owen has a reasonable shot at winning. (Yes, even Gabler; I think if he's sitting next to Owen and Karla or even Cassidy, he has a fair shot if he can argue his positions, and if he orchestrates the endgame blindsides of Cody/Jesse.)
Jesse is obviously the favourite at this stage to win, with two idols in his pocket and still not having gotten a single vote against him this whole game... but it's surely not going to be a death march to a perfect game, right? We already know that Gabler is wise to him and Cody, and other players have to recognize that. Jesse should theoretically be safe now till F4 firemaking, and I wonder if we're getting a repeat of EOE where the eventual winner defeats Jesse at fire.
Gabler, against all odds, feels like he's the only other player with a coherent storyline from start to finish. He's all but guaranteed F3, but the show is doing something interesting with him. His goofball negativity in the pre-merge, while normally devastating, was framed in a way where he got to justify his actions, and his biggest rivals went out in quick succession. He kickstarted the Elie vote and did it in a way that was so blunt and simple that it bought him a lot of social capital with the other tribes. Gabler by rights should be seen as a wildcard, but most of the players talk about how much of a straight-shooter he is and how everyone wants to work with him. No one's really mentioned him in the context of someone they can beat, and even when they show his negative moments, he immediately gets to justify them/undermine whoever was badmouthing him. I was expecting an all-Baka final three, and Sami leaving is devastating to Gabler's chances from a game logic perspective, because I do think the remaining players all have something they can justify in their gameplay to rally votes, but I don't think Gabler's out of it at all.
Right now I think the show is highlighting Cassidy enough to where I think she could be the under-the-radar female winner like we've had with Erika, and if she's sitting next to Karla/Owen, she wins most of the votes because she didn't really burn anyone and especially if she's the one to take out Jesse in fire. But there's just something about Cassidy that I feel like she's more of a final boss that they target in the next two rounds more than anything else. I also feel like she needs a big move to her name to really strengthen her argument; aside from the Ryan vote, the other votes she took part in were more driven by other people than by her, and I feel like the show isn't giving her that much agency in them. This is why I think that if she's sitting next to Gabler and Owen/Karla, she could potentially get outfoxed by Gabler, who at least has a clear narrative throughout the season (old guy playing the goof to be underestimated in the premerge, only to come out at strategic times and claim a scalp, then drift back under the water).
Cody... I want to believe in Cody because I love the guy, but he's not shown any real motivation in the post-merge to gun for Jesse, the clear favourite. I feel like if Cody were our winner, the show would be highlighting him at every opportunity and he's just kinda settled the last few episodes. It's not ruinous, but he has to know he has to cut Jesse in order to carry both of their narratives to the finals, and he's not really shown that yet. I fear Cody is our final five boot while the rest of the cast tries to outmaneuver idols, and maybe Jesse refrains from giving Cody his idol back, making him out to be the villain of the season.
Karla, I think she's shot herself in the foot a lot the last few episodes, and where I was considering her a runaway favourite to win if she sat at the end (give or take a Jesse), I am starting to wonder if she's our second placer. She gets to the end but burns bridges along the way and doesn't own it. She sacrificed James (who took it hard), she's willing to cut Cassidy (the narrative is building there that Karla turning on Cassidy is seen as a negative), and I'm sure Jesse/Cody might feel burned by her if she cuts them as well. This is why I think, if she's sitting next to Owen (who never had any agency in the game) and Gabler (who has a strategy I enumerated above that he may be able to weaponize), I can see her losing that, especially if crucial jurors are still feeling burned by her. Jeanine likely votes Owen, Ryan likely votes Gabler, and we already see a lot of the other players talking up Gabler as a straight-shooter and an honest man. I feel we're getting a lot of that this season that makes me think a big power-player gets to the end but burns trust along the way, just like Mike did last season.
Owen's Owen. Love the guy but he ain't winning.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 3, 2022 17:08:16 GMT
how do we not have a dedicated thread for Survivor.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 3, 2022 21:22:23 GMT
how do we not have a dedicated thread for Survivor. Be the change you want to see in the world.
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Post by cheesecake on Dec 10, 2022 2:46:45 GMT
Jesse was my winner pick going into the season. No way he pulls this off, right?!
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