fotodude
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Post by fotodude on May 15, 2017 7:09:09 GMT
I'm actually inclined to switch to the Spielberg after seeing that Wonderstruck clip, to be honest. Yes, it's gonna be a late comer and it won't have the acclaim that Spotlight did, but I can't write it off given how easily they can sell it to awards bodies and how perfectly it'd fit this decade's trend of having the more politically timely project take BP with few other wins while the tech marvel nabs Director and a slew of other Oscars. Yes, I really want to vote for The Post. JayAgain has made a lot of great points about why it probably won't win, but it just feels incredibly timely. Not that always works in a film's favor to win because AMPAS voters like what they like, and sometimes it's not the timely film. However, I'm just not really sold on anything else right now since Downsizing doesn't seem like it will be a major player anymore. I could see Wonderstruck being like Carol in that they're both the critics' favorite films of the year, but I still think that it's going to be very difficult for a female lead film to win Best Picture. Eventually it will happen again, but I just feel like that they've easily ignored Haynes in the past in Best Director and now in Best Picture with an extended lineup, and I could see them continuing to do so. Plus, I think if things continue on as they have in American politics, voters will want to send some kind of message again. I think Detroit might have too much controversy for it to be in contention, and unfortunately I don't see Kathryn Bigelow winning Best Picture twice at this time in her career or in time. She might win again someday; although, I think it's unlikely, but if she does, I think that there will be at least one or two other women directors whose film win Best Picture again before she wins again. Dunkirk and Darkest Hour just seem like Oscar bait of the past that gets major nominations but has fallen out of favor for the most part to contend for Best Picture. I'm not going to vote for The Post this month though because I want to throw a wildcard out there. One reason is that I think that the Best Picture winner might not even be on the list of films that are on the poll just yet. The second reason is that I haven't really had time right now to follow what's going on in the Oscar race because of my personal life is hell right now (I have to put my mother in a home because her Alzheimer's has now gotten to the point where it's too much for myself plus she's very aggressive now), so if I end up with egg on my face, I don't really care, and if I happen to guess correctly at least it will be one bright spot in this awful year. Anyhow, my vote is for The Death of Stalin. I think it could be very timely like The Post, but be released in time to build momentum at festivals. Plus, it has a large cast, so it could be a contender for SAG Ensemble. Good analysis. I hope your mom gets better and you can get your life back on track.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2017 11:16:35 GMT
But for the most part (and as of VERY recently,) the Best Picture Award is mostly given to what is the most politically correct. That benefits the Spielberg project more than it does Call Me by Your Name, though, given its timeliness and the fact that it doesn't share a major theme with the last BP winner. I think Spielberg is starting to slow down. It won't be as great as his previous work, It'll probably be another 'Bridge of Spies.' I think Studios just use him for Oscar Bait Films. But with your argument of 'the same theme,' I can totally understand. Everyone is saying they won't want to vote for the same type of movie, they are both 2 COMPLETELY different films. If we're talking about the same "type of movie;" 'The English Patient' won only for 'Titanic' to win the next year. So even in their "argument," It could happen. But this is different.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2017 11:19:51 GMT
Call Me By Your Name: Best Picture Best Director Best Adapted Screenplay Best Supporting Actor
Come crawling to me when I'm right Did you use the poll to vote? I did. I just wanted to announce it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2017 11:29:11 GMT
Ughh, Here's the Catch; Whenever a Film wins Best Picture, there's always a political reason behind it. Whether It be a Film about the Making of Films, or a Social Issue such as; Race, Sexual Orientation, Poverty, Drugs, Equal Rights, Urban Conflict, Discrimination, Crime, War, Cultural Differences, Disability,or Anything that is Relevant and Important in the Current Political Landscape where Conservative A-Holes tell Gays and Blacks to Fuck Off.There are some exceptions to the rule of course, where a Typical 'Oscar' Biopic or Historical Drama wins (ala The King's Speech, Gladiator, Braveheart, etc.) But for the most part (and as of VERY recently,) the Best Picture Award is mostly given to what is the most politically correct. I'm sorry, but of all the 62 nominees I saw 44 that if they won could be because of a political reason (of all the examples you cited). I have a hard time believing that the regular Academy voter will go 'look Birdman is a movie about the film industry imma vote for that' also why would that be a better reason then Boyhood's entire narrative or 'look 12 Years a Slave showed the devastation of what he went through'. I believe for the most part that Academy votes for what they like most, which again begs the question of this past awards season because the general consensus was the Academy voters liked LLL more but yes, voters will vote for Moonlight because of the "political" reasons, but I believe the backlash on La La Land played a big part for the results we got Exactly, that's what I mean though. 'Birdman' was definitely the best of the nominees, and I know the reason I listed above isn't the ONLY they voted for that. But there's still a clear track record here. I'm aware they pick what THEY think is the best, but what they're inclined to think of; is mostly consisted of the reasons I listed above, (also Musicals and Current Society do a pretty decent job.) Of all the Best Picture Winners of the last 20 years, the only 2 I can think of that Won best picture that didn't have any of these aspects (or 'themes' if you will), were; 'Lord of the Rings: Return of the King,' and 'No Country For Old Men.' But besides that, the pattern is still there.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on May 15, 2017 11:46:37 GMT
I'm actually inclined to switch to the Spielberg after seeing that Wonderstruck clip, to be honest. Yes, it's gonna be a late comer and it won't have the acclaim that Spotlight did, but I can't write it off given how easily they can sell it to awards bodies and how perfectly it'd fit this decade's trend of having the more politically timely project take BP with few other wins while the tech marvel nabs Director and a slew of other Oscars. So you voted for Wonderstruck in the poll but want to remove that vote and give it to The Post? Yeah. I just removed my vote from the poll, add me to team Spielberg. I'm definitely not 100% confident, mostly due to all the reasons Jay listed, but it makes the most sense to me right now as a placeholder until something stronger comes along. Now just watch Wonderstruck debut to huge success, all because I switched my vote.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on May 15, 2017 11:53:18 GMT
morton I'm very sorry to hear that. Hoping for the best for you and your mother.
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morton
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Post by morton on May 15, 2017 12:20:31 GMT
morton I'm very sorry to hear that. Hoping for the best for you and your mother. Thank you for your kind words. At least one bright spot is that she is able to qualify for hospice now; although, with Alzheimer's, she could still live several years, but at least they have some programs in place to help out with her and also they have support groups for family members as well.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2017 13:04:44 GMT
No idea really but I'll go with Phantom Thread
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