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Post by stephen on Oct 11, 2022 18:35:16 GMT
Piggybacking off the Original Screenplay thread, what are we thinking for Best Adapted Screenplay? I imagine it's a slamdunk at this stage for Sarah Polley, but the rest of the category looks like it could go either way. Right now I'm thinking:
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
1. Women Talking (I mean, as I said above, I really can't see any strong challenger for the win at this stage)
2. Living (I still think Nighy's a threat and Ishiguro is very highly respected, and he's adapting Kurosawa)
3. Glass Onion (the big Netflix player; Johnson did get nominated for the first film and it's getting superlative notices)
4. She Said (I feel like this is getting lost in the Women Talking noise -- side-note, the similarities in the titles will never not be amusing to me -- but I think it still stands a good shot at a writing nod)
5. Bones & All (the bold and eclectic pick; I feel like this will ride critics' buzz to the end)
(ALT: All Quiet on the Western Front -- it depends on what Netflix does with it but I could absolutely see a scenario where it maximizes nominations if given the attention)
I feel like The Whale may be too alienating even though it's the writers' branch, who usually go for the wilder stuff. And I think The Son is all but DOA.
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Post by JangoB on Oct 11, 2022 19:40:19 GMT
I'm thinking:
1. Women Talking
2. Glass Onion
3. She Said
4. White Noise
5. Living
Maybe The Whale gets in. Not feeling Bones and All here at all - I think it's gonna be too niche. I'm also not sure why some seem to think that All Quiet on the Western Front will become some sort of a major contender but hey, maybe they know something I don't.
If I were Martin McDonagh I'd quickly write a play version of Banshees and pretend that I happened to find it somewhere in my house.
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Post by stephen on Oct 11, 2022 19:57:18 GMT
I'm thinking: 1. Women Talking 2. Glass Onion 3. She Said 4. White Noise 5. Living Maybe The Whale gets in. Not feeling Bones and All here at all - I think it's gonna be too niche. I'm also not sure why some seem to think that All Quiet on the Western Front will become some sort of a major contender but hey, maybe they know something I don't. If I were Martin McDonagh I'd quickly write a play version of Banshees and pretend that I happened to find it somewhere in my house. I dunno, I think McDonagh's got an easier shot at beating The Daniels than he does at beating Polley. Yes, I know I am the resident Everything Everywhere doubter, but I think even though that's going to be its easiest path to an Oscar, McDonagh can easily take up the support of anyone who isn't on that movie's wavelength, whereas I feel Polley is much harder to beat on a thematic and narrative level. |
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Post by JangoB on Oct 11, 2022 20:02:06 GMT
I'm thinking: 1. Women Talking 2. Glass Onion 3. She Said 4. White Noise 5. Living Maybe The Whale gets in. Not feeling Bones and All here at all - I think it's gonna be too niche. I'm also not sure why some seem to think that All Quiet on the Western Front will become some sort of a major contender but hey, maybe they know something I don't. If I were Martin McDonagh I'd quickly write a play version of Banshees and pretend that I happened to find it somewhere in my house. I dunno, I think McDonagh's got an easier shot at beating The Daniels than he does at beating Polley. Yes, I know I am the resident Everything Everywhere doubter, but I think even though that's going to be its easiest path to an Oscar, McDonagh can easily take up the support of anyone who isn't on that movie's wavelength, whereas I feel Polley is much harder to beat on a thematic and narrative level. McDonagh's also up against Spielberg & Kushner though with both EEAAO and The Fabelmans sure to have plenty of appeal to various members of the Academy. Adapted doesn't seem to have any competition at this early stage so I think that McDonagh's chances would've significantly increased in that category. In fact I could easily picture him beating Polley (just awards-wise, of course  ) if he were in Adapted. |
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Post by stephen on Oct 11, 2022 20:12:29 GMT
I dunno, I think McDonagh's got an easier shot at beating The Daniels than he does at beating Polley. Yes, I know I am the resident Everything Everywhere doubter, but I think even though that's going to be its easiest path to an Oscar, McDonagh can easily take up the support of anyone who isn't on that movie's wavelength, whereas I feel Polley is much harder to beat on a thematic and narrative level. McDonagh's also up against Spielberg & Kushner though with both EEAAO and The Fabelmans sure to have plenty of appeal to various members of the Academy. Adapted doesn't seem to have any competition at this early stage so I think that McDonagh's chances would've significantly increased in that category. In fact I could easily picture him beating Polley (just awards-wise, of course ) if he were in Adapted. Bold take, but I don't really buy The Fabelmans as a huge winner contender for Screenplay even with its pedigree and its likelihood at winning in multiple above-the-line categories including Best Picture. The reviews all seem to tout it as more of a directorial achievement than anything, and as it is semi-autobiographical in nature, that buzz is going to coalesce more around Spielberg, and Best Director feels like where that momentum will fall. Maybe it's a silly thing to discount Spielberg and Tony Kushner here, but I feel like with how the Academy has been on a real spread-the-love mood of late, I am not seeing Picture/Director/Screenplay all going to one film this year. I think Spielberg wins Director and either McDonagh or The Daniels win in writing. |
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Oct 11, 2022 20:19:23 GMT
1. Women Talking
2. The Whale
3. Glass Onion
4. She Said
5. Living
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Post by quetee on Oct 11, 2022 21:21:18 GMT
Damn, slim pickens here. Has this category ever been this empty? Well, I guess I'm going to go with either Maverick or Glass Onion here, for right now.
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Post by stephen on Oct 11, 2022 21:34:57 GMT
Damn, slim pickens here. Has this category ever been this empty? Well, I guess I'm going to go with either Maverick or Glass Onion here, for right now. I love that you're hard on the Maverick train (plane?). I really hope it Fury Roads its way to Oscar glory. |
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Post by DeepArcher on Oct 11, 2022 22:37:30 GMT
With how slim the category is this year, I'd be really surprised if Maverick isn't nominated here.
Women Talking
Glass Onion
Top Gun: Maverick
Living
She Said
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Post by JangoB on Oct 11, 2022 23:29:12 GMT
To those predicting Maverick: can you show me at least one comparable modern(ish) nominee for Screenplay? Specifically meaning a boom-boom action movie without any particularly original ideas, poppy dialogue or ingenious plotting? I understand that the category seems weak this year but I firmly believe that it won't make this branch go for something they never go for - a basic blockbuster script. WGA may nominate it (especially with their disqualifications) like they did with something like Star Trek but AMPAS? Come on now.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 11, 2022 23:33:55 GMT
To those predicting Maverick: can you show me at least one comparable modern(ish) nominee for Screenplay? Specifically meaning a boom-boom action movie without any particularly original ideas, poppy dialogue or ingenious plotting? I understand that the category seems weak this year but I firmly believe that it won't make this branch go for something they never go for - a basic blockbuster script. WGA may nominate it (especially with their disqualifications) like they did with something like Star Trek but AMPAS? Come on now. There isn’t a comparison but I’m not sure I’ve ever seen this category this week either. I’m not predicting it to get nominated but if there was ever a year. |
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Post by stephen on Oct 11, 2022 23:37:27 GMT
To those predicting Maverick: can you show me at least one comparable modern(ish) nominee for Screenplay? Specifically meaning a boom-boom action movie without any particularly original ideas, poppy dialogue or ingenious plotting? I understand that the category seems weak this year but I firmly believe that it won't make this branch go for something they never go for - a basic blockbuster script. WGA may nominate it (especially with their disqualifications) like they did with something like Star Trek but AMPAS? Come on now. Yeah, I'm thinking Maverick follows the Mad Max path where it hits Picture off the back of a shitload of techs + a possible Director and even Actor push (even if I am not currently predicting the latter two), but I just can't imagine they'd go to it for Adapted Screenplay. Even though I think it's a tautly scripted flick, historically they ignore action films in this category. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Oct 11, 2022 23:52:55 GMT
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
Women Talking
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 12, 2022 1:45:27 GMT
Glass Onion
Living
She Said
White Noise
Women Talking
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Oct 12, 2022 2:06:36 GMT
To those predicting Maverick: can you show me at least one comparable modern(ish) nominee for Screenplay? Specifically meaning a boom-boom action movie without any particularly original ideas, poppy dialogue or ingenious plotting? I understand that the category seems weak this year but I firmly believe that it won't make this branch go for something they never go for - a basic blockbuster script. WGA may nominate it (especially with their disqualifications) like they did with something like Star Trek but AMPAS? Come on now. The closest thing I can think of is Logan, which got in because that year was pretty weak for the category. Granted, the movie was a novel take on the Wolverine character on film, but it's still an action movie, and a comic book movie to boot, something that hadn't happened before in this category. |
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Post by JangoB on Oct 12, 2022 2:21:24 GMT
To those predicting Maverick: can you show me at least one comparable modern(ish) nominee for Screenplay? Specifically meaning a boom-boom action movie without any particularly original ideas, poppy dialogue or ingenious plotting? I understand that the category seems weak this year but I firmly believe that it won't make this branch go for something they never go for - a basic blockbuster script. WGA may nominate it (especially with their disqualifications) like they did with something like Star Trek but AMPAS? Come on now. The closest thing I can think of is Logan, which got in because that year was pretty weak for the category. Granted, the movie was a novel take on the Wolverine character on film, but it's still an action movie, and a comic book movie to boot, something that hadn't happened before in this category. I thought about it as probably the closest example too but they're still pretty far from each other in my mind - Logan had its share of action sequences but it was primarily character-driven and, as you rightfully pointed out, presented a novel, updated take on a familiar genre. Which Maverick doesn't. Even with this year's bunch of contenders seeming weak I still feel that this branch is much more likely to go with something that's more up its alley. |
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Post by DeepArcher on Oct 12, 2022 2:28:13 GMT
To those predicting Maverick: can you show me at least one comparable modern(ish) nominee for Screenplay? Specifically meaning a boom-boom action movie without any particularly original ideas, poppy dialogue or ingenious plotting? I understand that the category seems weak this year but I firmly believe that it won't make this branch go for something they never go for - a basic blockbuster script. WGA may nominate it (especially with their disqualifications) like they did with something like Star Trek but AMPAS? Come on now. I don't know why everything needs to have a clear and obvious precedent in order to be possible. Top Gun: Maverick is a really well-written movie that's universally beloved, and even those with more conservative expectations of its awards chances have to admit it's probably the second biggest BP contender among films that will be eligible in this category. |
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Post by JangoB on Oct 12, 2022 2:33:38 GMT
To those predicting Maverick: can you show me at least one comparable modern(ish) nominee for Screenplay? Specifically meaning a boom-boom action movie without any particularly original ideas, poppy dialogue or ingenious plotting? I understand that the category seems weak this year but I firmly believe that it won't make this branch go for something they never go for - a basic blockbuster script. WGA may nominate it (especially with their disqualifications) like they did with something like Star Trek but AMPAS? Come on now. I don't know why everything needs to have a clear and obvious precedent in order to be possible. Not everything but in this particular case precedent does feel important to me because the writers' branch simply doesn't go for this type of purely entertaining boom boom blockbuster. I mean, I think a nomination is possible considering the seemingly limited nature of the field but its probability is a whole different story. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 12, 2022 2:44:22 GMT
not seeing this as a particularly weak field, 2019 and off the top of my head 2014 were much weaker.
I have
Women Talking
The Whale
She Said
Glass Onion
All Quiet on the Western Front
all potential BP players, and even if Glass Onion misses for BP it's clear that a lot of people like it as much or more than the first one so a writing nom at least feels assured in this field. AQotWF is an iconic classic novel that hasn't been adapted in a damn long time, She Said is going to have the importance factor + the fact that the two Times journalists won Pulitzers for this reporting and is another likely BP nominee pending NYFF reviews which will drop in a couple days. The Whale might be divisive true, but it's based on a one-act one-setting play that highlights writing and acting above anything else so if Fraser is considered a lock I think he's going to bring the screenplay with him.
and just on the outside there's Living which has the advantages Stephen mentioned and White Noise which has Baumbach's name recognition attached. I think between those 7, there's enough for the writer's branch to work with without bringing up Top Gun.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Oct 12, 2022 9:17:45 GMT
Not sure what I’m predicting yet but not sure why it’s unreasonable to think a top 5 BP contender would also be in the running for a screenplay nom?
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Post by wilcinema on Oct 12, 2022 11:00:39 GMT
Women Talking
The Whale
White Noise
Glass Onion
Living
I'm holding off on She Said because I still have no idea of what the buzz around it is.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 12, 2022 16:27:35 GMT
Women Talking
Living
Glass Onion
The Whale
White Noise
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 12, 2022 19:53:12 GMT
Not sure what I’m predicting yet but not sure why it’s unreasonable to think a top 5 BP contender would also be in the running for a screenplay nom? Well I guess it depends on whether you actually think Top Gun is Top 5 or not. A lot of people (justifiably) don't. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 12, 2022 21:28:30 GMT
Titanic won BP without a screenplay nod and Avatar was a BP frontrunner in the same situation. I think Top Gun is either in the top 5 or just outside of it but there are going to be 7 nominees in this field where the writing is more the standout. Top Gun could get a coattail screenplay nod (a la La La Land or 1917) but I'm assuming it's out of the top 5 in this category atm.
People are really sleeping on She Said.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Oct 13, 2022 12:25:54 GMT
Titanic won BP without a screenplay nod and Avatar was a BP frontrunner in the same situation. I think Top Gun is either in the top 5 or just outside of it but there are going to be 7 nominees in this field where the writing is more the standout. Top Gun could get a coattail screenplay nod (a la La La Land or 1917) but I'm assuming it's out of the top 5 in this category atm. People are really sleeping on She Said. I agree with your Top Gun take, I just didn’t think it’s unreasonable to predict it. I personally think TG is a top 3 BP contender and has a strong chance of winning, but likely will not get a screenplay nom. As for She Said, I think it could easily go either way on like a slew of noms or just a couple. Right now I’m leaning towards the latter but in another month or two might be changing my tune. |
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) if he were in Adapted.
