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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 26, 2022 16:32:17 GMT
Like Bardo and Empire of Light are not that well received overall, the Fablemans seems kind of low key and they already did the Avatar thing once so I don’t see that winning. Babylon maybe but nobody has seen it.
Any thoughts?
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Post by stephen on Sept 26, 2022 16:44:18 GMT
Bardo is extraordinarily flashy, from a beloved director whose films won cinematography awards back-to-back, with a cinematographer that is fairly overdue (seriously, Khondji is probably the best working DP with only one nomination to his name). I think even if the film wasn't overall well-received, the industry will go hard for it and we can't count it out. Right now I would say I'd have it as the frontrunner regardless of the film's overall performance.
Deakins and Kaminski are always in contention and I could be convinced of either being ahead of Khondji, and there's always Avatar: The Way of Water potentially hitting big, considering the first film won here. And yes, there is Babylon which looks very showy in this department, and I am predicting that to be the big Production Design/Costumes player.
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Post by JangoB on Sept 26, 2022 16:48:20 GMT
We don't even have a season yet But at this point in time I think the main battle is gonna be between Babylon and Bardo. I'm sure Deakins will be nominated for Empire of Light but it doesn't seem like an undeniable achievement, The Fabelmans is indeed a more intimate Spielberg production so I don't see the voters going gaga over its look and I'm not even sure that Avatar will get nominated because it seems like this branch is kind of over these super-CGI movies after flirting with them for a little bit. There're also stuff like The Batman and Top Gun: Maverick but I can't quite see picture them as our potential winners. Which leaves us with Sandgren and Khondji (unless some other strong contender emerges, of course). Both movies are sure to have a strong emphasis on the visuals with a ton of show-offy shots (and the trailers support that theory) so right now I'm picturing those two to be the ones to duke it out. I think that both Babylon and Bardo will be warmly received by AMPAS so that'll make their path to the win easier. Right now I'd say that Bardo is gonna pull it off because it's guaranteed to have a huge amount of visual pyrotechnics that the Academy loves so much.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 26, 2022 19:59:32 GMT
If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on Deaks.
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Sept 26, 2022 20:03:30 GMT
The Northman ought to be winning this whole thing, so it’s a shame it’s getting ignored.
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Post by DeepArcher on Sept 26, 2022 20:35:16 GMT
It's an interesting category because all of the festival movies that seemed to get individual notices for cinematography (Bardo, Empire of Light, Blonde) were pretty roundly hated otherwise. It could leave a lot of space for blockbusters to break through here. Def no clear frontrunner atm.
Predicted 5 (little to no confidence): Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar: The Way of Water, Empire of Light, The Fabelmans, Babylon. Next 5 up: The Batman, Bardo, Blonde, Elvis, The Woman King.
I could also see Athena or All Quiet on the Western Front doing something here, but I'm not sure to what extent Netflix will be pushing them. Certainly contenders to keep in mind, though.
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Post by countjohn on Sept 26, 2022 23:33:32 GMT
Cry Macho sweep incoming. Two years in the making.
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Post by stephen on Sept 27, 2022 0:17:28 GMT
Cry Macho sweep incoming. Two years in the making. If you rearrange the letters in "cinematography", you get "Cry Macho taping e." And that says it all.
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Post by mikediastavrone96 on Sept 27, 2022 1:53:32 GMT
A little surprised that nobody is thinking Larkin Seiple could show here if the Academy does end up going for Everything Everywhere All at Once. It's one of the most varied movies in terms of filming technique this year - aspect ratio changes, lighting that goes all over the place and has to accommodate a number of effects, a Wong Kar-wai tribute complete with shutter speed changes and some step-printing. The fact it was all accomplished on a fairly modest budget also plays into how impressive it comes across.
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Post by JangoB on Sept 27, 2022 11:55:14 GMT
The Northman ought to be winning this whole thing, so it’s a shame it’s getting ignored. I think it'd be very smart for Universal to try and promote it in the technical categories. I can picture stuff like cinematography or makeup getting noticed with the proper exposure in the form of screeners and such.
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Post by michael128 on Sept 28, 2022 4:32:33 GMT
What about that Alec Baldwin movie?
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Post by Pavan on Sept 28, 2022 13:16:55 GMT
I'm a bit surprised you guys aren't considering Batman as frontrunner. Fraser should win unless something comes out and knocks it out of the park.
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Post by stephen on Sept 28, 2022 13:46:28 GMT
I'm a bit surprised you guys aren't considering Batman as frontrunner. Fraser should win unless something comes out and knocks it out of the park. It's an extremely early release and there are a lot of major contenders this year with reasonably showy cinematography. Fraser also literally just won, so there may not be a whole lot of momentum for a consecutive win in this category if the film itself isn't likely to hit any other major categories. I don't even think it's in the top five at this stage.
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Post by JangoB on Sept 28, 2022 13:56:09 GMT
I'm a bit surprised you guys aren't considering Batman as frontrunner. Fraser should win unless something comes out and knocks it out of the park. It's an extremely early release and there are a lot of major contenders this year with reasonably showy cinematography. Fraser also literally just won, so there may not be a whole lot of momentum for a consecutive win in this category if the film itself isn't likely to hit any other major categories. I don't even think it's in the top five at this stage. Yeah, I really don't see where this 'Fraser should win' talk is coming from.
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Post by stephen on Sept 28, 2022 14:07:48 GMT
It's an extremely early release and there are a lot of major contenders this year with reasonably showy cinematography. Fraser also literally just won, so there may not be a whole lot of momentum for a consecutive win in this category if the film itself isn't likely to hit any other major categories. I don't even think it's in the top five at this stage. Yeah, I really don't see where this 'Fraser should win' talk is coming from. I don't even think the cinematography for The Batman stands out as something the Academy would normally go for. It's very good but it's not exactly what I would call the Academy's cup of tea.
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Post by Pavan on Sept 30, 2022 7:56:07 GMT
It's an extremely early release and there are a lot of major contenders this year with reasonably showy cinematography. Fraser also literally just won, so there may not be a whole lot of momentum for a consecutive win in this category if the film itself isn't likely to hit any other major categories. I don't even think it's in the top five at this stage. Yeah, I really don't see where this 'Fraser should win' talk is coming from. Coz its top tier work and dare i say better than Dune.
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Post by JangoB on Sept 30, 2022 12:22:50 GMT
Yeah, I really don't see where this 'Fraser should win' talk is coming from. Coz its top tier work and dare i say better than Dune. Oh, so you were talking about your personal awards? I absolutely love what he did in The Batman too btw and hope he gets a nomination
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