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Post by stephen on Sept 15, 2022 13:44:07 GMT
The thing against Butler is that while he's playing a famous popular celebrity, like many,many, actors that won before, they were rarely if ever unknown quantities, and it was easy to see the transformation- just from recent years you had Chastain, Zellwegger, Oldman, Streep, etc, were very known, and while Malek and Redmayne were not in the same league, the latter had his share of roles (including in Les Miserables, which won Oscars), and the former was an Emmy winner in an already iconic role which was very different. Butler has nothing for people to compare to, and due to his age and newcomer status, seems far more likely he would get a welcome to the club type of nod. Has anyone else in Butler's position had seemingly the entire male A-list in Hollywood vouching for him and praising him though? Denzel Washington, Brad Pitt, Leonardo DiCaprio, Gary Oldman....these guys have given him the seal of approval or are taking up his performance in interviews. Unprompted (in the case of Oldman and Pitt). You can't overlook how strong that potentially makes Butler as a threat to win. The top dog Alpha males in Hollywood seem to be firmly in his caml, and those endorsements will probably influence voters. It's obviously a major boon for Butler to have those people bigging him up, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's got their vote when all's said and done. (It should also be noted that a lot of that press was leading up to Elvis bowing, when no other contenders were really being seen or in the mix.) Many of the other Best Actor contenders have actually worked with these guys you're using as examples (i.e. Farrell's worked with Denzel), or at least have known them for years. Butler's got the benefit of his youth in that these guys' support will help him network very well for future roles to capitalize on this breakout, but he's up against several guys who have never won who have been in the industry for decades and who have narratives of their own. Butler could very well win, but there's a reason this category skews older when it comes to winners, and I just think that he might have peaked too early and may have trouble regaining some of that buzz in the midst of awards season. I do think his nomination is the reward, but it will see him through to bigger and better things (as will Dune: Part II). |
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Post by DanQuixote on Sept 15, 2022 13:45:51 GMT
Austin Butler, Elvis (Alt. Fraser)
Cate Blanchett, TÁR (Alt. Robbie)
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (Alt. Quan)
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (Alt. Foy)
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 15, 2022 14:02:59 GMT
Has anyone else in Butler's position had seemingly the entire male A-list in Hollywood vouching for him and praising him though? Denzel Washington, Brad Pitt, Leonardo DiCaprio, Gary Oldman....these guys have given him the seal of approval or are taking up his performance in interviews. Unprompted (in the case of Oldman and Pitt). You can't overlook how strong that potentially makes Butler as a threat to win. The top dog Alpha males in Hollywood seem to be firmly in his caml, and those endorsements will probably influence voters. It's obviously a major boon for Butler to have those people bigging him up, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's got their vote when all's said and done. (It should also be noted that a lot of that press was leading up to Elvis bowing, when no other contenders were really being seen or in the mix.) Many of the other Best Actor contenders have actually worked with these guys you're using as examples (i.e. Farrell's worked with Denzel), or at least have known them for years. Butler's got the benefit of his youth in that these guys' support will help him network very well for future roles to capitalize on this breakout, but he's up against several guys who have never won who have been in the industry for decades and who have narratives of their own. Butler could very well win, but there's a reason this category skews older when it comes to winners, and I just think that he might have peaked too early and may have trouble regaining some of that buzz in the midst of awards season. I do think his nomination is the reward, but it will see him through to bigger and better things (as will Dune: Part II). I don't see Farrell as a strong contender for the Best Actor win against Butler or Fraser. There's no hook in his performance. It's not transformative , he doesn't have to play a degenerative neurological condition (ie Hopkins in The Father). Best Actor often needs a hook, or overdue status to win. It just seems like a well recieved dramady turn. It may have won Venice, but performances like Farrell's not only rarely win Best Actor, but are also easily snubbed. I can easily see him missing the final 5 and do not see him as a likely winner in Best Actor. Right now, the only threat I see to Butler is Fraser, and visa versa. |
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Post by stabcaesar on Sept 15, 2022 14:24:16 GMT
Yeah, what?  Even if The Son had been well-received at Venice, Dern just won an Oscar a couple of years ago. So what? A relatively unknown (at least at that time) actor like Christoph Waltz managed to win 2 Oscars within 3 years. So why a widely popular and respected actress like Laura Dern winning a 2nd Oscar is so shocking? 🙃 Well, The Son bombed so there's that. Also, Waltz was against 4 other previous winners, Dern has Williams as competition in a much better-received film directed by Steven Spielberg. It's a no brainer, really. |
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Post by stephen on Sept 15, 2022 14:30:51 GMT
So what? A relatively unknown (at least at that time) actor like Christoph Waltz managed to win 2 Oscars within 3 years. So why a widely popular and respected actress like Laura Dern winning a 2nd Oscar is so shocking? 🙃 Well, The Son bombed so there's that. Also, Waltz was against 4 other previous winners, Dern has Williams as competition in a much better-received film directed by Steven Spielberg. It's a no brainer, really. Additionally, Dern won her Oscar largely off of an overdue veteran narrative (as her closest critics' competitor got snubbed at the end). It is extremely rare for someone to win a second Oscar after they've given you that career moment. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Sept 15, 2022 14:34:32 GMT
So what? A relatively unknown (at least at that time) actor like Christoph Waltz managed to win 2 Oscars within 3 years. So why a widely popular and respected actress like Laura Dern winning a 2nd Oscar is so shocking? 🙃 . Also, Waltz was against 4 other previous winners, Dern has Williams as competition in a much better-received film directed by Steven Spielberg. It's a no brainer, really. It hasn’t been released yet so hard to say it “bombed” only off of some early mixed reviews. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 15, 2022 14:44:16 GMT
Meh There are almost 4 frontruners without a real challenger yet and we're manufacturing ones but then again predix aren't my thing much: I'm not buying Whishaw or Butler for lots of reasons - Whishaw because he's not THAT respected and Quan winning makes people happy and Gleeson makes more sense to me for a not nodded before British guy rather than a White male winning the Oscar for a female film doesn't so much (um) but I haven't seen him.......... and Butler for his age and "unknown" quality and he's good but not THAT good imo ....there may not be a "Number 2" here .....I dunno, it happens.... Hirsch would be nice but I can't believe he wins for 5 minutes ...... Dano is usually a bad actor for me (great in Love & Mercy though).......and they don't seem to like him much anyway because he's often unlikable - I mean that's his "thing"  ...... Gleeson could dovetail with a Screenplay win and keep Quan out Blanchett could (easily) lose to Deadwyler or Ackie ......that's possible but no one else and that includes Davis......she's going to rack up a lot of precursors ......her Volpi is huge imo and suggests she may have international support coalesce aroud her.......and Fraser could lose to someone like Nighy I guess......maybe that's not coming out or something (?).........and that may be too slight and small to win anyway....but that actually has the reviews, in a serious film, that played Sundance (like The Father) and is the central performance although it's quiet and not showy from what I know of it.....like I said for Actor maybe there is no number 2 at all......Farrell seems like the nod is the reward but McDonagh has directed 2 Oscar winning performances - which is more than Aronofsky and Luhrmann - so maybe he's 3rd dark horse......
Brendan Fraser
Cate Blanchett
Brendan Gleeson
Michelle Williams |
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Sept 15, 2022 17:36:03 GMT
Well, The Son bombed so there's that. Also, Waltz was against 4 other previous winners, Dern has Williams as competition in a much better-received film directed by Steven Spielberg. It's a no brainer, really. It hasn’t been released yet so hard to say it “bombed” only off of some early mixed reviews. This 🎯 |
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Sept 15, 2022 17:40:19 GMT
So what? A relatively unknown (at least at that time) actor like Christoph Waltz managed to win 2 Oscars within 3 years. So why a widely popular and respected actress like Laura Dern winning a 2nd Oscar is so shocking? 🙃 Well, The Son bombed so there's that. Also, Waltz was against 4 other previous winners, Dern has Williams as competition in a much better-received film directed by Steven Spielberg. It's a no brainer, really. I guess we shall wait and see. But I also remember predicting Frances McDormand winning a 3rd Oscar but some people told me that she had no chance in hell. 😁 |
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Sept 15, 2022 18:53:11 GMT
Well, The Son bombed so there's that. Also, Waltz was against 4 other previous winners, Dern has Williams as competition in a much better-received film directed by Steven Spielberg. It's a no brainer, really. I guess we shall wait and see. But I also remember predicting Frances McDormand winning a 3rd Oscar but some people told me that she had no chance in hell. 😁 McDormand was the lead in the most acclaimed movie of the year, that won BP and Director, in a very fractured and unusual year because of the pandemic and the new voting system of the BAFTA (which only lasted one year after it essentially took Carey Mulligan's Oscar).
If you think that compares with Dern in a movie that got mixed reviews and has another actress in the same category competing with her going against a 4 (soon 5) times nominee that never won in a movie that's pretty much an autobiography of the most popular director of all time, got raves, and is one of the strongest BP/BD contenders, if not the strongest one, well...
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Sept 15, 2022 19:08:32 GMT
I guess we shall wait and see. But I also remember predicting Frances McDormand winning a 3rd Oscar but some people told me that she had no chance in hell. 😁 McDormand was the lead in the most acclaimed movie of the year, that won BP and Director, in a very fractured and unusual year because of the pandemic and the new voting system of the BAFTA (which only lasted one year after it essentially took Carey Mulligan's Oscar).
If you think that compares with Dern in a movie that got mixed reviews and has another actress in the same category competing with her going against a 4 (soon 5) times nominee that never won in a movie that's pretty much an autobiography of the most popular director of all time, got raves, and is one of the strongest BP/BD contenders, if not the strongest one, well...
You've completely missed my point. |
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Sept 15, 2022 19:19:12 GMT
The irony is that Michelle Williams has more of the Laura Dern narrative from 3 years ago. The acclaimed, multi nominated actress in a Best Picture nominee who had never won.
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Post by countjohn on Sept 15, 2022 22:11:57 GMT
Best Actor: Clint Eastwood- Cry Macho
Best Actress: Natalia Traven- Cry Macho
Best Supporting Actor: Dwight Yoakam- Cry Macho
Best Supporting Actress: Fernanda Urrejola- Cry Macho
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 16, 2022 8:51:13 GMT
The Son is awful, and Dern is not even great in it.
At the moment…
Fraser: unbeatable narrative, transformation and raves. The combination is very strong and he’s the frontrunner for Globes and SAG. Butler may have vocal supporters but that doesn’t mean he has those people’s votes. Farrell will get his overdue nod and he will be in contention for BAFTA and Comedy Globe, which will put him ahead of Butler but not really in contention for the win.
Blanchett: undeniable performance from what is considered the the greatest living actress in the English language. I think she wins Globe and BAFTA. SAG might be a bigger hurdle to clear, as I believe Davis, Robbie and Yeoh will be strong there as well but in the end I think she’ll win.
Gleeson: Banshees is Searchlight’s #1 and this category often rewards veterans. Unless the industry goes bananas for EEAAO, he’s the winner.
Williams: I mean…
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Post by stabcaesar on Sept 16, 2022 9:06:21 GMT
You've completely missed my point. Your point being? Those who won two Oscars within a short span all had much stronger films than The Son AND had weak/weird competition in their category. I doubt The Son will be in contention for any award at this point with the mixed reviews, and Williams basically has it in the bag. Just admit you were wrong.  |
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Post by finniussnrub on Sept 16, 2022 10:23:46 GMT
Best Actor: Clint Eastwood- Cry Macho Best Actress: Natalia Traven- Cry Macho Best Supporting Actor: Dwight Yoakam- Cry Macho Best Supporting Actress: Fernanda Urrejola- Cry Macho What stupid predictions, Eduardo Minett is CLEARLY the supporting actor standout. |
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Sept 16, 2022 13:45:06 GMT
Best Actor: Clint Eastwood- Cry Macho Best Actress: Natalia Traven- Cry Macho Best Supporting Actor: Dwight Yoakam- Cry Macho Best Supporting Actress: Fernanda Urrejola- Cry Macho What stupid predictions, Eduardo Minett is CLEARLY the supporting actor standout. I believe countjohn was only joking.  stabcaesar Jesus Christ , calm down. Even if I'm wrong ,so freaking what ? Stop taking everything so seriously. |
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Post by JangoB on Sept 16, 2022 17:56:59 GMT
Two Brendans, Cate & Michelle
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 16, 2022 17:57:55 GMT
Two Brendans, Cate & Michelle Would be fun if it was just 2 Brendan's and two Michelle's. |
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Mar 13, 2023 5:22:49 GMT
Best Actor: Clint Eastwood- Cry Macho Best Actress: Natalia Traven- Cry Macho Best Supporting Actor: Dwight Yoakam- Cry Macho Best Supporting Actress: Fernanda Urrejola- Cry Macho Nailed it. |
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Mar 13, 2023 5:23:07 GMT
After Jamie Lee Curtis’s BS win tonight, all these Williams predictions now seem really depressing...
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 13, 2023 5:55:16 GMT
Fraser Blanchett Quan Williams 6 months out, I'll happily take 2/4. |
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morton
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Post by morton on Mar 13, 2023 6:54:02 GMT
Fraser Blanchett Quan Williams 6 months out, I'll happily take 2/4. For all the grief I’ve given SAG after their merger, they have gone 5 for 5 in 3 of the last 4 years. Don’t worry though I will continue to give them grief. Speaking of which, I love how the Globes irrelevance continues. I bet they’re kicking themselves that they didn’t go with JLC now who they normally love, or award Fraser even if he wouldn’t have accepted the award. |
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Even if The Son had been well-received at Venice, Dern just won an Oscar a couple of years ago.
......Gleeson could dovetail with a Screenplay win and keep Quan out
