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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 14, 2022 6:10:30 GMT
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
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Post by wallsofjericho on Sept 14, 2022 6:13:08 GMT
I think your picks are spot on.
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Post by stabcaesar on Sept 14, 2022 6:24:54 GMT
I think Williams is very likely to win, the other 3 are still too early to tell though I do think your picks are at least getting nominated.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Sept 14, 2022 12:25:18 GMT
Fraser
Blanchett
Hirsh
Williams
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 14, 2022 12:38:33 GMT
Butler
Davis
Gleeson
Willams
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Post by DeepArcher on Sept 14, 2022 12:40:51 GMT
Butler, Yeoh, Quan, Williams.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 14, 2022 12:54:28 GMT
Fraser Blanchett HirshWilliams If Hirsch wins it would be amazing because that would make him a male American Triple Crown winner - and he'd beat out Alan Arkin and Kevin Kline who have been pegged for a long time to be "the next one" but both are missing the Emmy Kline returns to TV next year opposite Blanchett.........there hasn't been an American male do it in 20 years - and he would have 5 TC wins too - 2 Best Actor Tonys, 2 Best Actor Emmys tying him with Pacino for most ever for any male regardless of country (Plummer has 5 too but one is for narration so, not as much.......) ........at 87 ..........it would be an amazing story for such a small role .........it'd be like the male Beatrice Straight I guess........and of course he'd be the oldest winner |
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LaraQ
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Post by LaraQ on Sept 14, 2022 13:16:49 GMT
Cate Blanchett
Brendan Fraser
Michelle Williams
Judd Hirsch
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 14, 2022 13:18:15 GMT
Fraser Blanchett HirshWilliams If Hirsch wins it would be amazing because that would make him a male American Triple Crown winner - and he'd beat out Alan Arkin and Kevin Kline who have been pegged for a long time to be "the next one" but both are missing the Emmy Kline returns to TV next year opposite Blanchett.........there hasn't been an American male do it in 20 years - and he would have 5 TC wins too - 2 Best Actor Tonys, 2 Best Actor Emmys tying him with Pacino for most ever for any male regardless of country (Plummer has 5 too but one is for narration so, not as much.......) ........at 87 ..........it would be an amazing story for such a small role .........it'd be like the male Beatrice Straight I guess........and of course he'd be the oldest winner And I think he'd also be the first Triple Crown winner to get an Emmy first, Tony second, and Oscar last. Another fun Hirsch stat: if he gets nominated, he would break Henry Fonda's long-standing record for longest break between Oscar nominations - Fonda went from 1940 (Grapes of Wrath) to 1981 (On Golden Pond), Hirsch would be going from 1980 to 2022. |
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Post by stephen on Sept 14, 2022 13:27:07 GMT
Colin Farrell. I feel like his winner equity is being underestimated. He's a long-standing veteran in the industry who's been angling for his first nomination for ages, he's been consistently working in film and television to great acclaim, his film is getting stellar reviews and McDonagh had a massive success with his actors last go-around. Farrell's getting career-peak notices, too, and he's had a banner year to boot. Fraser feels too much like a Mickey Rourke/Michael Keaton type where the nomination is the reward, Jackman may not be able to seal the deal off the back of a film with a far more muted reception than Zeller's last, and Butler might have peaked too early. Farrell just feels right to me.
Cate Blanchett: Blanchett is one of those actors that you know is destined for a third win, it's inevitable, but it's just a matter of when. And she's getting supreme notices for this performance, in a film that is apparently much more palatable than people expected. Blanchett's second win is a decade old and that gives enough breathing room between wins. But I do think she'll need a critics' sweep a la DDL in 2012 to clinch it. There are a few narratives at play here for some of her contenders (Davis and Colman gunning for their second wins, Robbie being more of their traditional pick for the ingenue who's put in her time, Yeoh getting groundbreaking recognition, etc.), but I think Blanchett could conceivably steamroll if the critics go for her at the outset.
Ben Whishaw. Kind of a similar vein to Colin Farrell: a hard-working vet in the industry, playing the lone sympathetic male role in an otherwise all-female ensemble that is likely to be a huge SAG player and potential Best Picture contender. Whishaw benefits from not having to contend with splitting votes among co-stars as well.
Michelle Williams. The one I am most confident on. Spielberg + hard-working mum in the category that loves that archetype the most + overdue narrative.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 14, 2022 13:58:42 GMT
Fraser
Blanchett
Quan
Williams
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Post by quetee on Sept 14, 2022 14:33:18 GMT
Butler
Not sure about actress. Wanna say mother in Till.
Williams
Hirsch
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Post by TheAlwaysClassy on Sept 14, 2022 14:58:34 GMT
Fraser
Yeoh
Gleeson
Williams
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 14, 2022 15:22:20 GMT
Fraser
Robbie
Hirsch
Williams
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 14, 2022 15:34:04 GMT
Blanchett
Fraser
Williams
Quan
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sirchuck23
Based
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Post by sirchuck23 on Sept 14, 2022 19:00:48 GMT
Austin Butler
Michelle Yeoh
Brendan Gleeson
Michelle Williams
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Sept 14, 2022 20:04:51 GMT
Fraser- it's a comeback role that involves physical transformation, for a guy that doesn't seem to have made many enemies in the industry (like Rourke). So far, clear frontrunner.
Blanchett- Main obstacle for her was reluctance to give 3rd acting Oscars, but after Frances McDormand, that might be less of an issue.
Gleeson- This is the hardest category to predict so far, but he seems to fit the mold of character actor thar worked with EVERYONE and only needed the right role to win an Oscar
Williams- Clearly the easiest category to bet on for now.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Sept 14, 2022 20:43:24 GMT
BRENDAN FRASER (alt. HUGH JACKMAN / COLIN FARRELL)
CATE BLANCHETT (alt. CAREY MULLIGAN)
BRENDAN GLEESON (alt. PAUL DANO / JUDD HIRSH)
LAURA DERN (alt. MICHELLE WILLIAMS)
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Post by finniussnrub on Sept 14, 2022 21:39:24 GMT
Butler - (I think there's an easy scenario for him, people love Elvis (the musician), they love his portrayal, real life figures usually have the advantage, might be simple as that. Fraser though has a great chance, and I think has less "baggage" than other comeback nominees who don't win like Stallone and Rourke. Farrell I think suffers in comparison, not due to quality, but its less obviously transformative.)
Blanchett - (The general perception of her makes it so a third win seems quite likely. It would take a lot of ardent support somewhere else I think to move her out of contention, which is possible. Helps at the moment that there isn't a clear #2, some might say Yeoh or even Davis, but both are in very non-Oscar winning type of roles. I do think if Till is bigger than just Deadwyler, then I could see her taking it.)
Gleeson - (Sure why not, as long as his fraud isn't too severe. If the film is big, this looks like it could be the easiest way to support it potentially. Don't see Whishaw taking it just by virtue of the likely bone headed complaints ("a film about women and the man wins only!"), don't see Dano or Hirsch because Williams will probably eat up all the love, Quan maybe if the film isn't just a pipedream for contention. Gleeson though fits well in the category as an overdue and beloved vet with strong reviews)
Williams -(I'd put money on this one.)
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Sept 15, 2022 1:10:00 GMT
The thing against Butler is that while he's playing a famous popular celebrity, like many,many, actors that won before, they were rarely if ever unknown quantities, and it was easy to see the transformation- just from recent years you had Chastain, Zellwegger, Oldman, Streep, etc, were very known, and while Malek and Redmayne were not in the same league, the latter had his share of roles (including in Les Miserables, which won Oscars), and the former was an Emmy winner in an already iconic role which was very different. Butler has nothing for people to compare to, and due to his age and newcomer status, seems far more likely he would get a welcome to the club type of nod.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 15, 2022 1:52:15 GMT
BRENDAN FRASER (alt. HUGH JACKMAN / COLIN FARRELL) CATE BLANCHETT (alt. CAREY MULLIGAN) BRENDAN GLEESON (alt. PAUL DANO / JUDD HIRSH) LAURA DERN (alt. MICHELLE WILLIAMS) Explain. |
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Post by stabcaesar on Sept 15, 2022 8:42:44 GMT
BRENDAN FRASER (alt. HUGH JACKMAN / COLIN FARRELL) CATE BLANCHETT (alt. CAREY MULLIGAN) BRENDAN GLEESON (alt. PAUL DANO / JUDD HIRSH) LAURA DERN (alt. MICHELLE WILLIAMS) Explain. Yeah, what?  Even if The Son had been well-received at Venice, Dern just won an Oscar a couple of years ago. |
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Sept 15, 2022 12:51:48 GMT
Yeah, what? Even if The Son had been well-received at Venice, Dern just won an Oscar a couple of years ago. So what? A relatively unknown (at least at that time) actor like Christoph Waltz managed to win 2 Oscars within 3 years. So why a widely popular and respected actress like Laura Dern winning a 2nd Oscar is so shocking? 🙃 |
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Sept 15, 2022 12:52:33 GMT
BRENDAN FRASER (alt. HUGH JACKMAN / COLIN FARRELL) CATE BLANCHETT (alt. CAREY MULLIGAN) BRENDAN GLEESON (alt. PAUL DANO / JUDD HIRSH) LAURA DERN (alt. MICHELLE WILLIAMS) Explain. No explanation needed. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 15, 2022 13:35:18 GMT
The thing against Butler is that while he's playing a famous popular celebrity, like many,many, actors that won before, they were rarely if ever unknown quantities, and it was easy to see the transformation- just from recent years you had Chastain, Zellwegger, Oldman, Streep, etc, were very known, and while Malek and Redmayne were not in the same league, the latter had his share of roles (including in Les Miserables, which won Oscars), and the former was an Emmy winner in an already iconic role which was very different. Butler has nothing for people to compare to, and due to his age and newcomer status, seems far more likely he would get a welcome to the club type of nod. Has anyone else in Butler's position had seemingly the entire male A-list in Hollywood vouching for him and praising him though? Denzel Washington, Brad Pitt, Leonardo DiCaprio, Gary Oldman....these guys have given him the seal of approval or are taking up his performance in interviews. Unprompted (in the case of Oldman and Pitt). You can't overlook how strong that potentially makes Butler as a threat to win. The top dog Alpha males in Hollywood seem to be firmly in his corner, and those endorsements will probably influence voters. Also, Butler doesn't need any of his previous performances to compare to, to impress. You just need to compare him to real life footage of Elvis singing and performing and it's clear he's given a spectacular effort to recreate how the real man, sang moved, talked and behaved. Even with Fraser in a fatsuit, it's probably by far the most obviously transformative male performance of the year. And those performances often have the advantage at Oscar. |
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Even if The Son had been well-received at Venice, Dern just won an Oscar a couple of years ago.