Post by stephen on Sept 12, 2022 15:15:42 GMT
1. Michelle Williams, The Fablemans. Now that it's pretty well confirmed that she's supporting in the film, I think it's going to take an awful lot to knock Williams down from the top spot for Supporting Actress. She's got a sizable overdue narrative building, Spielberg's on a hot streak with his actors lately, she's playing a mother which is catnip for this category, and it sounds like she's got the goods here.
2. Claire Foy, Women Talking. The First Man heat may have died quickly, but it sounds like Foy is the Mark Ruffalo in Spotlight of this ensemble, in that she's the loud and brash character that immediately draws focus. Now, I fucking despise Ruffalo in Spotlight so I am hoping that Foy isn't that odious in her film, but it sounds like she's the standout on a focus level.
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking. Double nominations are more frequent in this category than any other, and if there's an ensemble film this year that could snag two supporting actress nods, it's this one. Buckley's riding high off her Oscar breakout last year and while her character isn't as showy/flashy as Foy's evidently is, she apparently is making enough of an impact with people that she's routinely mentioned in the MVP conversation.
4. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin. Probably the film that benefited most from Venice, Condon's ink was extremely good (some calling her the film's standout). Condon's always felt like an actress on the verge of a big break if someone actually looked at what she was doing and gave her a chance, and it seems McDonagh has done that. If Banshees is going to be the hit I think it will be with the industry, I think she's definitely a strong player here.
5. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. A lot of standout notices and Monae's been on the industry's radar for a while (I personally think she was the actress who should've been nominated for Moonlight and not Naomie Harris). The raves are there, and she's got Netflix behind her. SAG's going to eat this one up, and she's poised to be the focus of it.
6. Hong Chau, The Whale. She's been on the cusp of a breakthrough with awards for a while, was arguably in sixth place a few years back for Downsizing, and she's getting a lot of strong notices for her work here. I think if we're looking at this through the prism of The Wrestler, if Fraser is Rourke, then Chau might be Tomei (and Sadie Sink is Evan Rachel Wood).
7. Rooney Mara, Women Talking. She's not gotten as many standout reviews as either Buckley or Foy, but she's a prior nominee and one of the bigger names in the cast, and I could see a situation where they opt for her over someone like Buckley if there isn't a consensus set early.
8. Jean Smart, Babylon. Still kind of an unknown quantity, but Smart is riding very high on her Hacks success and she could be an Allison Janney-type "TV vet finally gets Oscar attention" situation if she delivers. I think the potential immensity of Babylon forces me to rate her in the top ten for now, but no higher than this for the time being.
9. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once. I still think this film is being overestimated across the board, and no more so than in this category. Taking my personal feelings out of the equation (which are that Hsu is fine but comfortably the weak link of the ensemble), I don't buy her breaking into this category against bigger names in more coordinated later releases. If Hsu does get in, then I'd expect a huge overperformance on the part of this film, but I am not at all seeing it for her specifically.
10. Nina Hoss, TÁR. Very good notices but the film reads as kind of the Blanchett show, and I don't know if Hoss can pull a Sally Hawkins and coattail herself to a nod along with Cate's dominance.
HM: Sadie Sink in The Whale (more mixed reviews than Chau, but she is having a bit of a moment with this and Stranger Things); Lashana Lynch and Thuso Mbedu in The Woman King (could do serious damage at SAG), Li Jun Li in Babylon (potentially very baity if she's playing the Anna May Wong surrogate)., Samantha Morton for She Said and The Whale (probably the former)
2. Claire Foy, Women Talking. The First Man heat may have died quickly, but it sounds like Foy is the Mark Ruffalo in Spotlight of this ensemble, in that she's the loud and brash character that immediately draws focus. Now, I fucking despise Ruffalo in Spotlight so I am hoping that Foy isn't that odious in her film, but it sounds like she's the standout on a focus level.
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking. Double nominations are more frequent in this category than any other, and if there's an ensemble film this year that could snag two supporting actress nods, it's this one. Buckley's riding high off her Oscar breakout last year and while her character isn't as showy/flashy as Foy's evidently is, she apparently is making enough of an impact with people that she's routinely mentioned in the MVP conversation.
4. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin. Probably the film that benefited most from Venice, Condon's ink was extremely good (some calling her the film's standout). Condon's always felt like an actress on the verge of a big break if someone actually looked at what she was doing and gave her a chance, and it seems McDonagh has done that. If Banshees is going to be the hit I think it will be with the industry, I think she's definitely a strong player here.
5. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. A lot of standout notices and Monae's been on the industry's radar for a while (I personally think she was the actress who should've been nominated for Moonlight and not Naomie Harris). The raves are there, and she's got Netflix behind her. SAG's going to eat this one up, and she's poised to be the focus of it.
6. Hong Chau, The Whale. She's been on the cusp of a breakthrough with awards for a while, was arguably in sixth place a few years back for Downsizing, and she's getting a lot of strong notices for her work here. I think if we're looking at this through the prism of The Wrestler, if Fraser is Rourke, then Chau might be Tomei (and Sadie Sink is Evan Rachel Wood).
7. Rooney Mara, Women Talking. She's not gotten as many standout reviews as either Buckley or Foy, but she's a prior nominee and one of the bigger names in the cast, and I could see a situation where they opt for her over someone like Buckley if there isn't a consensus set early.
8. Jean Smart, Babylon. Still kind of an unknown quantity, but Smart is riding very high on her Hacks success and she could be an Allison Janney-type "TV vet finally gets Oscar attention" situation if she delivers. I think the potential immensity of Babylon forces me to rate her in the top ten for now, but no higher than this for the time being.
9. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once. I still think this film is being overestimated across the board, and no more so than in this category. Taking my personal feelings out of the equation (which are that Hsu is fine but comfortably the weak link of the ensemble), I don't buy her breaking into this category against bigger names in more coordinated later releases. If Hsu does get in, then I'd expect a huge overperformance on the part of this film, but I am not at all seeing it for her specifically.
10. Nina Hoss, TÁR. Very good notices but the film reads as kind of the Blanchett show, and I don't know if Hoss can pull a Sally Hawkins and coattail herself to a nod along with Cate's dominance.
HM: Sadie Sink in The Whale (more mixed reviews than Chau, but she is having a bit of a moment with this and Stranger Things); Lashana Lynch and Thuso Mbedu in The Woman King (could do serious damage at SAG), Li Jun Li in Babylon (potentially very baity if she's playing the Anna May Wong surrogate)., Samantha Morton for She Said and The Whale (probably the former)
