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Post by countjohn on Sept 14, 2022 1:48:53 GMT
Surprised to see Women Talking with the most votes in this thread. I get that the subject matter is "timely," but I'm not really seeing a lot of passion for it (at least among Toronto critics), and the response to it feels more like polite admiration. Also looks like a common complaint about it is its apparent "staginess," so I'm not sure the film is even a top 5 BP contender. Bolded is true of almost all the winners since the 10's, though, starting with King's Speech over Social Network, which is another example of them taking a dull movie everyone forgot about over an actual classic.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 14, 2022 3:23:23 GMT
Surprised to see Women Talking with the most votes in this thread. I get that the subject matter is "timely," but I'm not really seeing a lot of passion for it (at least among Toronto critics), and the response to it feels more like polite admiration. Also looks like a common complaint about it is its apparent "staginess," so I'm not sure the film is even a top 5 BP contender. Bolded is true of almost all the winners since the 10's, though, starting with King's Speech over Social Network, which is another example of them taking a dull movie everyone forgot about over an actual classic. There are plenty of films that have won BP and beat more memorable classics because voters were passionate about them at the time. That kind of "in the moment" passion is what I'm talking about, not people assessing the films years after their release.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 14, 2022 4:02:22 GMT
Yeah, Women Talking seems to already be slipping.
I can really only see 3 films taking it. Fabelmans, Babylon or EEAAO.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 14, 2022 4:16:25 GMT
I can really only see 3 films taking it. Fabelmans, Babylon or EEAAO.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 14, 2022 4:44:44 GMT
I can really only see 3 films taking it. Fabelmans, Babylon or EEAAO. Sorry, still not seeing it.
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Post by Brother Fease on Sept 15, 2022 1:37:30 GMT
Are people still predicting Babylon, despite a questionable trailer?
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 15, 2022 1:54:56 GMT
Are people still predicting Babylon, despite a questionable trailer? It's my #2 or #3, but since when did trailers matter??
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 15, 2022 16:51:31 GMT
Are people still predicting Babylon, despite a questionable trailer? It's my #2 or #3, but since when did trailers matter?? Thank you! Trailers are completely irrelevant to Oscar chances. As for the Oscar chances I don’t see it being a contender to win unless they cut back on the depravity of the script. Which maybe they have I don’t know.
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Post by Brother Fease on Sept 16, 2022 11:04:21 GMT
I voted for The Fablemans. However, if you guys add The Whale, I would vote for that. The Academy tends to go for the small films nowadays, not the big budget shiny object.
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Post by madmonsterparty on Sept 16, 2022 15:03:00 GMT
I voted for The Fablemans. However, if you guys add The Whale, I would vote for that. The Academy tends to go for the small films nowadays, not the big budget shiny object. I'll definitely take The Whale into consideration going into the next poll, Brother Fease. It will probably factor into the Oscar race very seriously if the early buzz means anything!!
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Post by madmonsterparty on Sept 19, 2022 1:19:04 GMT
Hey everyone!!
Do you think The Fablemans is a stronger contender now *after* being well received at Toronto? And is it *the* front runner at this point, in you opinions??
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 19, 2022 1:28:45 GMT
It's definitely the frontrunner now, but we all know how difficult it is for a film to sustain support for six months after it's been given that status. I think it's among the top 3 to win, but I'm not sure if it can go all the way since it's apparently a very quiet, loose, low-key film (more than the trailer suggests) and I'm uncertain of how much passion it can generate. Still, it should perform well on a preferential ballot since it seems like a hard movie to dislike. I'd definitely have it ahead of something like EEAO.
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Post by stephen on Sept 19, 2022 1:31:21 GMT
The Fabelmans doesn't feel like an undeniable frontrunner, and I can see it losing traction as the year goes on. I do think it's likelier Spielberg wins Director, though, and something like Women Talking takes Picture in a Spotlight/Revenant-esque split.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 20, 2022 2:40:49 GMT
Something worth noting that doesn’t get talked about enough is the runtime of the BP contenders. In addition to the other reservations I have about what seems like the consensus top 3 at the moment (Fabelmans, Babylon, EEAAO), they’re also long films.
Babylon is reportedly 3 hours, Fabelmans is 2.5 hours, and EEAAO is slightly less than that.. but we haven’t had a BP winner that’s 2.5 hours or more, or even close to 2.5 hours, since The Departed, and that was before the preferential ballot system was in place. The longest film that’s won under the preferential ballot system is 12 Years a Slave at 2h 14min, and in that case I think the “importance” factor of that film overrode anything else. None of the three films this year listed above carry that kind of weight.
I just don’t think people have patience for long films anymore, so none of the “top 3” feel right to me as winners. Especially Babylon since we haven’t had a 3-hour movie win BP since freakin Return of the King... and Babylon is not that. With how small-scale, quiet, and loosely constructed/episodic Fabelmans apparently is, I get the sense that that might feel especially long for some viewers at 2.5 hours. And EEAAO may only be 7 minutes longer than something like Parasite (the second longest BP winner under the preferential ballot after 12YAS), but I’ve seen ppl say how the movie wears them out and feels too long... so it’s not just about the runtime itself, but of course how the film feels within that runtime.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 20, 2022 3:07:13 GMT
Something worth noting that doesn’t get talked about enough is the runtime of the BP contenders. In addition to the other reservations I have about what seems like the consensus top 3 at the moment (Fabelmans, Babylon, EEAAO), they’re also long films. Babylon is reportedly 3 hours, Fabelmans is 2.5 hours, and EEAAO is slightly less than that.. but we haven’t had a BP winner that’s 2.5 hours or more, or even close to 2.5 hours, since The Departed, and that was before the preferential ballot system was in place. The longest film that’s won under the preferential ballot system is 12 Years a Slave at 2h 14min, and in that case I think the “importance” factor of that film overrode anything else. None of the three films this year listed above carry that kind of weight. I just don’t think people have patience for long films anymore, so none of the “top 3” feel right to me as winners. Especially Babylon since we haven’t had a 3-hour movie win BP since freakin Return of the King... and Babylon is not that. With how small-scale, quiet, and loosely constructed/episodic Fabelmans apparently is, I get the sense that that might feel especially long for some viewers at 2.5 hours. And EEAAO may only be 7 minutes longer than something like Parasite (the second longest BP winner under the preferential ballot after 12YAS), but I’ve seen ppl say how the movie wears them out and feels too long... so it’s not just about the runtime itself, but of course how the film feels within that runtime. So... Women Talking or Banshees??
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Post by DeepArcher on Sept 20, 2022 3:31:32 GMT
Something worth noting that doesn’t get talked about enough is the runtime of the BP contenders. In addition to the other reservations I have about what seems like the consensus top 3 at the moment (Fabelmans, Babylon, EEAAO), they’re also long films. Babylon is reportedly 3 hours, Fabelmans is 2.5 hours, and EEAAO is slightly less than that.. but we haven’t had a BP winner that’s 2.5 hours or more, or even close to 2.5 hours, since The Departed, and that was before the preferential ballot system was in place. The longest film that’s won under the preferential ballot system is 12 Years a Slave at 2h 14min, and in that case I think the “importance” factor of that film overrode anything else. None of the three films this year listed above carry that kind of weight. I just don’t think people have patience for long films anymore, so none of the “top 3” feel right to me as winners. Especially Babylon since we haven’t had a 3-hour movie win BP since freakin Return of the King... and Babylon is not that. With how small-scale, quiet, and loosely constructed/episodic Fabelmans apparently is, I get the sense that that might feel especially long for some viewers at 2.5 hours. And EEAAO may only be 7 minutes longer than something like Parasite (the second longest BP winner under the preferential ballot after 12YAS), but I’ve seen ppl say how the movie wears them out and feels too long... so it’s not just about the runtime itself, but of course how the film feels within that runtime. So... Women Talking or Banshees?? TG:M comes in at a tight 130
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 20, 2022 3:32:33 GMT
Something worth noting that doesn’t get talked about enough is the runtime of the BP contenders. In addition to the other reservations I have about what seems like the consensus top 3 at the moment (Fabelmans, Babylon, EEAAO), they’re also long films. Babylon is reportedly 3 hours, Fabelmans is 2.5 hours, and EEAAO is slightly less than that.. but we haven’t had a BP winner that’s 2.5 hours or more, or even close to 2.5 hours, since The Departed, and that was before the preferential ballot system was in place. The longest film that’s won under the preferential ballot system is 12 Years a Slave at 2h 14min, and in that case I think the “importance” factor of that film overrode anything else. None of the three films this year listed above carry that kind of weight. I just don’t think people have patience for long films anymore, so none of the “top 3” feel right to me as winners. Especially Babylon since we haven’t had a 3-hour movie win BP since freakin Return of the King... and Babylon is not that. With how small-scale, quiet, and loosely constructed/episodic Fabelmans apparently is, I get the sense that that might feel especially long for some viewers at 2.5 hours. And EEAAO may only be 7 minutes longer than something like Parasite (the second longest BP winner under the preferential ballot after 12YAS), but I’ve seen ppl say how the movie wears them out and feels too long... so it’s not just about the runtime itself, but of course how the film feels within that runtime. So... Women Talking or Banshees??
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 20, 2022 13:46:50 GMT
Should have seen that coming
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Post by quetee on Sept 20, 2022 14:18:40 GMT
So... Women Talking or Banshees?? well, I guess when it starts hitting major guilds there will be believers then.
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Post by madmonsterparty on Sept 29, 2022 18:40:36 GMT
One more chance to vote before the poll closes up and we look towards October!!!
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