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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 5, 2022 23:19:45 GMT
He ticks boxes for his transformation, the comeback narrative and the studio backing him - A24 - so, yeah. He has a good a shot as a few others right now. I think it will be: Butler Fraser Jackman Pitt Either Gleeson or Farrell Pitt is supporting
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Aug 6, 2022 11:38:20 GMT
I think it's Fraser vs. Butler for the win, with Jackman a very close third, waiting for either to lose momentum.
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Post by wilcinema on Aug 6, 2022 12:15:02 GMT
Butler is being underestimated, he’s a very strong SAG contender.
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Archie
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Eraserhead son or Inland Empire daughter?
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Post by Archie on Aug 6, 2022 12:46:35 GMT
He's winning.
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Post by DanQuixote on Aug 9, 2022 15:15:44 GMT
Now that Killers of the Flower Moon and Rustin are likely getting pushed to 2023, I’m predicting him.
Austin Butler - Elvis Daniel Giménez Cacho - Bardo, or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths Brendan Fraser - The Whale Hugh Jackman - The Son Bill Nighy - Living
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Post by stephen on Aug 22, 2022 18:42:09 GMT
Man's getting a TIFF tribute, so that definitely changes things somewhat.
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Post by Joaquim on Aug 22, 2022 22:17:41 GMT
Hopping on the “he’ll win” bandwagon before it gets crowded
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 2, 2022 0:43:32 GMT
It seems like the kind of year where a foreign language passion pick can sneak into the lineup... Song Kang-ho in Broker, perhaps? I would bet on Daniel Gimenez Cacho. Bardo is shaping to be Netflix's big push (provided they can skirt around the brewing behind-the-scenes brouhaha, if that has any merit) and the man is a fantastic talent, and AGI has fantastic luck with his actors (only Amores Perros failed to get an acting nod, and that was his debut). RIP Finally hopping on the Fraser train?
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Post by stephen on Sept 2, 2022 0:58:39 GMT
I would bet on Daniel Gimenez Cacho. Bardo is shaping to be Netflix's big push (provided they can skirt around the brewing behind-the-scenes brouhaha, if that has any merit) and the man is a fantastic talent, and AGI has fantastic luck with his actors (only Amores Perros failed to get an acting nod, and that was his debut). RIP Finally hopping on the Fraser train? His chances are looking brighter and brighter. (Though now I'm starting to wonder about Colin Farrell...)
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Post by stabcaesar on Sept 2, 2022 3:25:41 GMT
I have a feeling that he will sweep the televised awards.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 2, 2022 3:34:33 GMT
RIP Finally hopping on the Fraser train? His chances are looking brighter and brighter. (Though now I'm starting to wonder about Colin Farrell...)God, I'd fucking love that. Top 5 atm?
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Post by stephen on Sept 2, 2022 3:37:46 GMT
His chances are looking brighter and brighter. (Though now I'm starting to wonder about Colin Farrell...)God, I'd fucking love that. Top 5 atm? Jackman, Butler, Nighy (still think everyone's sleeping on his chances), Bale (sigh) and I guess Fraser by virtue of that TIFF spotlight. But I think Farrell could slip in if Banshees of Inisherin lands.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 2, 2022 3:43:30 GMT
God, I'd fucking love that. Top 5 atm? Jackman, Butler, Nighy (still think everyone's sleeping on his chances), Bale (sigh) and I guess Fraser by virtue of that TIFF spotlight. But I think Farrell could slip in if Banshees of Inisherin lands. Almost same as me, just got Calva instead of Bale. Don't think Amsterdam gets a single nom tbh. I'd have Farrell and Driver above him as well. I think here is the only place people are underestimating Nighy. He's 4th on AW, and in Top 5 on Gold Derby.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Sept 2, 2022 11:56:20 GMT
Hard to imagine that he wouldn’t at least get nominated unless the film is a total failure. The role is too baity. Also helps that a number of presumed contenders are now 2023, and that a number of people being predicted have no chance at noninations (Bale, Ferrell, ect)
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 2, 2022 14:28:32 GMT
Hard to imagine that he wouldn’t at least get nominated unless the film is a total failure. The role is too baity. Also helps that a number of presumed contenders are now 2023, and that a number of people being predicted have no chance at noninations (Bale, Farrell, ect) Care to elaborate?
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Post by iheartamyadams on Sept 2, 2022 17:41:18 GMT
Hard to imagine that he wouldn’t at least get nominated unless the film is a total failure. The role is too baity. Also helps that a number of presumed contenders are now 2023, and that a number of people being predicted have no chance at noninations (Bale, Farrell, ect) Care to elaborate? I liked the movie, but neither of the leads have award friendly roles. It’s a very small film, the actors are pretty unshowy throughout, and the performances are the type that don’t really call attention to themselves. The screenplay is the star of the show imo, and I think that will be the best shot for an Oscar nom. Ferrel could maybe get a comedy Globe nom?
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 19, 2022 20:10:45 GMT
This category is a mess after the top 3 (Fraser, Butler, and Farrell). I guess Nighy, and then the fifth slot is anyone's guess.
Calva is unknown and his role is apparently a passive one where everyone around him seems to be more memorable, so I'm not sure if I buy him. Plus, we never have 5 newcomers in this category. Jackman is the baitiest role in contention, but the movie tanked, so that makes his path challenging. Plus, it's hard to see SPC getting two lone Actor nominations. Other ppl like Driver, Mescal, and Pope are in movies that seem either too small to break through or things that no one will care enough about. That leaves Cruise, who actually has more of a shot at a nom than some of us would probably like to admit. I can see Cruise getting SAG and Globe noms, but still.... it's tough to imagine who would put him at #1 on their ballot.
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 19, 2022 20:32:47 GMT
He probably wouldn't need many #1 votes tbh. He's the face of arguably a Top 5 movie, and he's one of the biggest movie stars in the world. I cannot bring myself to predict him, but he can get in.
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Post by MsMovieStar on Sept 20, 2022 7:33:10 GMT
Oh honey, his backstory is heartbreaking: Sexually assaulted by the President of the Press Association; Blacklisted from trying to speak out (much harder for a man); Countless physical injuries requiring surgeries and recovery from doing his own stunts; raising a disabled child; having been a beefcake eye candy actor the loss of his looks must have been very hard, and dealing with depression (not surprisingly).
I hope he's given a break as this guy could certainly use some good fortune. Someone up there needs to smile on him.
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