Does Brendan Fraser get a Best Actor nomination?

I can see the film being too outside the Academy's wheelhouse, but at the same time I feel like Fraser will be easier to root for and is more likeable than Sandler. I also think a lot of people will want to see him succeed given how his health problems contributed to his career decline, so he's got a strong comeback narrative that will have people on his side. 

One thing that he has in his corner is that the category just had two big hitters likely going to 2023 with Domingo and DiCaprio. Right now I have him at the #7 spot, but the film is already garnering all sorts of controversy and I think that this might be momentum for Fraser to get roles that will eventually see him in Oscar's good graces, but this role has all sorts of pitfalls and Aronofsky misses as much as he hits.

While this is true, I already see this film being considered exploitative and fatphobic, and A24 hasn't exactly been putting much into the Oscar game the last several years. They've got a bonafide hit with Everything Everywhere All At Once on their hands (a film I still have some doubts on just due to its early release, but it still has staying power leading into the fall so I may wind up eating my words on this one), and I think that's where they'll put their weight behind if anything.

I think so, yes

I created this algorithm that will help us .....

Basically history says he may be nominated but he won't win......he's over 50. Look up the amount of guys who are over 50, nominated for Best Actor on their first nomination and who won - in like the last 50 years. Go ahead, I'll wait.....

You're far and I mean faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar more likely to get nominated but without the win because historically if the Academy never thought you were THAT good to begin with - Rourke, Keaton, Cranston, Carrell - there's a lot etc. - they're going to need more convincing than just that role which gets you that 1st nomination.

Now, of course rules are made to be broken - and each year is unique - but it's a pretty big precedent to throw out the window.....it's like "winning" for Shakespeare in any category or "winning" when you're really young for Best Actor.....doesn't happen much in the modern era......

It's more likely the nomination is just the appetizer, not the whole meal

Hugh Jackman would be the one to beat. Previous nominee, extremely baity material from the revelatory new writer/director who garnered an all-time win for Best Actor only two years ago, with a very strong studio backing him. I'd favor him even if Domingo/DiCaprio were still in contention.

It seems like the kind of year where a foreign language passion pick can sneak into the lineup... Song Kang-ho in Broker, perhaps?

So, what do your current predictions look like?

Austin Butler, Elvis
Adam Driver, White Noise
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Hugh Jackman, The Son

And Giminez Cacho?

I hope he does wonderfully and gets nominated, but as of now (having not seen anything), Hugh Jackman seems to be the frontrunner. Not only is he beloved and an established A-lister, but he's only an Oscar away from becoming an EGOT winner. I think voters might find that tidbit to be too good to pass up. Then again, they've also seemed to not care about stuff like that recently.

He ticks boxes for his transformation, the comeback narrative and the studio backing him - A24 - so, yeah. He has a good a shot as a few others right now.

I think it will be:

Butler
Fraser
Jackman
Pitt
Either Gleeson or Farrell

A film that's going to be pushed until 2023 by the looks of it, and he's not going to be in the film that much.