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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jul 12, 2022 19:32:44 GMT
we have a slightly clearer picture of what might be in play, we have trailers/footage/pics for upcoming stuff, we have a better idea of what's dropping in the fall and what's being pushed to 2023, and we have two potential BP nominees already released. Last time we had a predix thread was right after the Oscars in the height of Slapgate. God those were simpler times BEST PICTUREBabylonThe Banshees of InisherinEverything Everywhere All at OnceThe FabelmansKillers of the Flower MoonRustinShe SaidThe SonTop Gun: MaverickWomen TalkingBEST DIRECTORDamien Chazelle, BabylonSarah Polley, Women TalkingMaria Schrader, She SaidMartin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower MoonSteven Spielberg, The FabelmansBEST ACTRESSCate Blanchett, TárDanielle Deadwyler, TillRegina King, ShirleyMargot Robbie, BabylonMichelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at OnceBEST ACTORAustin Butler, ElvisLeonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower MoonColman Domingo, RustinHugh Jackman, The SonBrad Pitt, BabylonBEST SUPPORTING ACTRESSJessie Buckley, Women TalkingLaura Dern, The SonLily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower MoonJean Smart, BabylonMichelle Williams, The FabelmansBEST SUPPORTING ACTORAndre Braugher, She SaidRobert De Niro, Killers of the Flower MoonJesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower MoonKe Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at OnceGlynn Turman, RustinBEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAYKillers of the Flower MoonShe SaidThe SonTillWomen TalkingBEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYBabylonThe Banshees of InisherinEverything Everywhere All at OnceThe FabelmansTárand just for fun, a couple techs CINEMATOGRAPHYAvatar: The Way of Water - Russell Carpenter Babylon - Linus Sandgren Don't Worry Darling - Matthew Libatique The Fabelmans - Janusz Kamiński Killers of the Flower Moon - Rodrigo Prieto COSTUME DESIGNAmsterdam - J.R. Hawbaker & Albert Wolsky Babylon - Mary Zophres Don't Worry Darling - Arianne Phillips Elvis - Catherine Martin Mrs. Haris Goes to Paris - Jenny Beavan PRODUCTION DESIGNAmsterdam Babylon The Fabelmans Killers of the Flower Moon Pinocchio
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jul 12, 2022 19:57:54 GMT
BEST PICTURE The Fabelmans (Universal) The Killing of Flower Moon (Apple) Babylon (Paramount) Empire of Light (Searchlight) Women Talking (United Artists) She Said (Universal) The Son (Sony) Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) Rustin (Netflix)
Alt. The Whale (A24) Amsterdam (20th Century) Till (MGM)
DIRECTOR Martin Scorsese, The Killing of Flower Moon Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans Sarah Polley, Women Talking Damien Chazelle, Babylon Maria Schrader, She Said
Alt. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
BEST ACTOR Brendan Fraser, The Whale Austin Butler, Elvis Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon Hugh Jackman, The Son Colman Domingo, Rustin
Alt. Christian Bale, Amsterdam Diego Calva, Babylon
BEST ACTRESS Olivia Colman, Empire of Light Margot Robbie, Babylon (Alt. Amsterdam and goes supporting for Babylon) Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody Ana de Armas, Blonde Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alt. Danielle Deadwyler, Till Carey Mulligan, She Said
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Paul Dano, The Fabelmans Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon Ben Whishaw, Women Talking Zen McGrath, The Son Robert DeNiro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Alt. John David Washington, Amsterdam Brad Pitt, Babylon
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Lily Gladstone, The Killing of Flower Moon Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans Sadie Sink, The Whale Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (Alt. Frances McDormand OR Claire Foy OR Rooney Mara) Jean Smart, Babylon
Alt. Anya Taylor-Joy, Amsterdam Laura Dern, The Son
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 13, 2022 2:40:15 GMT
Avatar 2 Babylon Empire of Light Everything Everywhere All At Once The Fabelmans She Said The Son Top Gun: Maverick Triangle of Sadness Women Talking
Alt: Black Panther 2 and The Banshees of Inisherin
Chazelle Daniels Mendes Polley Spielberg
Alt: Ostlund and Zeller
Butler Calva Fraser Jackman Nighy
Alt: Redmayne and Farrell
Ackie Blanchett Colman Robbie Yeoh
Alt: Deadwyler and Mulligan
Dano McGrath Pitt Quan Whishaw
Alt: Firth and Hirsch
Buckley Dern Sink Smart Williams
Alt: Condon and Kirby
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Post by JangoB on Jul 13, 2022 11:16:31 GMT
Why not indeed! I'll only do the techs if you don't mind because at this early a point they're the only ones that interest me BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY - Babylon - Killers of the Flower Moon - Empire of Light - Bardo - The Batman Sound about right to me at this moment. I don't think Lubezki will get much awards recognition for Amsterdam despite his comeback after a long absence - I don't see anything in that trailer that suggests a cinematography nominee. So unless there're some long takes or something (which I doubt since DOR isn't really about that) I think Chivo misses. I'm also not predicting The Fabelmans because it ain't always easy for Kaminski to get nominated (even if the work is great) and with the film being a more intimate family story there may not be too much room for the type for prettiness/grandeur they go for in this category. Although if the film really strikes gold as far as reactions to it are concerned, the situation may be very different. I'm also not seeing Avatar 2 here because I feel that the first film's nominations/awards were mostly for the innovative cameras and the use of 3D. I can't see a similar response 13 years later. /// BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN - Babylon - Killers of the Flower Moon - Elvis - The Fabelmans - Avatar 2 Spielberg has said that a lot of The Fabelmans has to do with the titular family constantly moving so I think there'll be quite enough for Rick Carter to work with which can eventually lead to a nomination. I was doubting whether to go with Avatar 2 or Amsterdam but picked the former because, unlike the cinematography, I can see people being impressed with the designs of the corners of Pandora which we haven't seen before. But maybe they'll go with something more tactile and less CG-heavy. So far I'll stick with Avatar. /// BEST EDITING - Babylon - Killers of the Flower Moon - Top Gun: Maverick - Everything Everywhere All at Once - Amsterdam I'm through predicting Spielberg's movies for editing because the Academy seems to deliberately ignore those achievements (no matter how great and flashy they are - WSS is a prime example). And again, the movie is a small family drama and not something boisterous so a nom happens here only if it's received as a top 3 contender or something. Actually it can miss even with that up its sleeve. Anyway, definitely feeling Top Gun (as the biggest action flick of the year) and EEAAO (as the one with the most flash) here. DOR's manic energy should be enough for Amsterdam to get in too as long as it's acclaimed enough. /// BEST ORIGINAL SCORE - The Fabelmans - Empire of Light - TAR - Babylon - The Batman I don't think we've got official confirmation that Thomas Newman is doing Empire of Light but I'll assume he is. Here's hoping that he does a great moving score and that he actually gets a proper campaign this time. Newman FTW! Anyway, feeling good about John Williams and Justin Hurwitz too. A bit more iffy on TAR and The Batman but I just don't know what else to put here. I don't think Black Panther 2 or Avatar 2 will get much of the love that the OGs received. /// BEST COSTUME DESIGN - Elvis - Killers of the Flower Moon - Babylon - Amsterdam - The Fabelmans Feeling good about the first three, can easily see a nom for Amsterdam with its period setting and then there's The Fabelmans as well - Mark Bridges is doing the costumes which is already pretty exciting and it's also a 1950s-1960s setting which lends itself nicely to some flashy costuming. Again, there's Black Panther 2 but will they look at it and feel the same novelty effect as with the first one? I'm kinda doubtful of that. /// BEST SOUND - Top Gun: Maverick - Avatar 2 - Elvis - Babylon - The Batman I know it's only July but I'll be honest - I'm already feeling very confident about this category I mean, come on! You've got your huge aircraft action flick, you've got Avatar with its creatures and setpieces, you've got a big musical biopic, you've got a big prestige movie about Hollywood which is definitely gonna involve some noise and you've got a big comic book blockbuster with an actual vision behind it which features some huge loud setpieces as well. Sounds about right to me. /// BEST VISUAL EFFECTS - Avatar 2 - The Batman - Top Gun: Maverick - Doctor Strange 2 - Nope Avatar is definitely winning but then it gets a touch murky. I think The Batman has a good chance for a nom because of the quality of the work there, Top Gun will probably get in a-la No Time to Die (not too much CGI but just enough to make it + it's a huge hit), Doctor Strange is potentially gonna be the annual Marvel representative (there sure are a LOT of effects there) and for the fifth spot I went with Nope because I couldn't think of anything more convincing. I mean, it's gonna have big UFO scenes so why not, right? /// BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING - Elvis - The Batman - Babylon - The Whale - Golda This year seems pretty heavy on flashy makeup achievements, huh? Elvis and The Batman get in for the notable prosthetic work, Babylon probably gets in for period hairstyling and facial makeup and stuff like that, The Whale might get in for the fat makeup (unless it's like woke-shamed out of existence or something) and then there's Golda which may turn out to be too small of a movie but which still has a big Helen Mirren transformation. I'm only feeling good about the first three but I can see the others happening too. Maybe Amsterdam sneaks in (Bale's look alone seems good enough for a nom to me), maybe EEAAO with its couple of different looks for the main characters, maybe something like The Woman King does the trick. The number of contenders seems fairly big.
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Post by DanQuixote on Jul 13, 2022 11:58:10 GMT
Best Motion Picture of the Year Babylon Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths) Empire of Light Everything Everywhere All at Once The Fabelmans Killers of the Flower Moon She Said The Son Top Gun: Maverick Women Talking
Best Achievement in Directing Damien Chazelle - Babylon Alejandro González Iñárritu - Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths) Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon Sarah Polley - Women Talking
Best Actor in a Leading Role Austin Butler - Elvis Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon Bill Nighy - Living Colman Domingo - Rustin Hugh Jackman - The Son
Best Actress in a Leading Role Margot Robbie - Babylon Olivia Colman - Empire of Light Naomi Ackie - I Wanna Dance with Somebody Regina King - Shirley Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Actor in a Supporting Role Paul Dano - The Fabelmans Zen McGrath - The Son Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon Brad Pitt - Babylon Jesse Plemons - Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Actress in a Supporting Role Jessie Buckley - Women Talking Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon Zoe Kazan - She Said Jean Smart - Babylon Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
Best Adapted Screenplay Killers of the Flower Moon Living She Said The Son Women Talking
Best Original Screenplay Babylon Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths) Empire of Light Everything Everywhere All at Once The Fabelmans
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jul 13, 2022 17:20:07 GMT
Pittsnogle_Goggins it was a good catch. What happened is I accidentally closed out the damn page while writing the post and had to redo it from scratch. I definitely don't think Killers is getting in for director, actor, supporting actor (x2), screenplay, and tech stuff but not BP
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Post by JangoB on Jul 24, 2022 8:55:53 GMT
Ok, after the release of the Black Panther 2 trailer my reservations about it potentially not having the same wow-effect for the voters are kind of gone. I can absolutely see AMPAS picking it as their MCU Oscar representative once again with its emotional baggage and (seemingly) much improved visuals. Plus the movie will obviously be huge.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jul 28, 2022 16:23:37 GMT
BEST PICTURE Amsterdam Avatar: The Way of the Water
Babylon Bardo Everything Everywhere All at Once Empire of Light The Fabelmans
The Son Top Gun: Maverick Women Talking BEST DIRECTORDamien Chazelle, Babylon Sarah Polley, Women Talking Sam Mendes, Empire of Light James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of the Water Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans BEST ACTRESSCate Blanchett, Tár Olivia Colman, Empire of Light Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody Margot Robbie, Babylon Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once BEST ACTORAustin Butler, Elvis Christian Bale, Amsterdam Colman Domingo, Rustin Hugh Jackman, The Son Brendan Fraser, The Whale BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESSJessie Buckley, Women Talking Vanessa Kirby, The Son Sadie Sink, The Whale Jean Smart, Babylon Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans BEST SUPPORTING ACTORPaul Dano, The Fabelmans Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin Michael Ward, Empire of Light
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once Glynn Turman, Rustin
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jul 28, 2022 16:28:58 GMT
Ok, after the release of the Black Panther 2 trailer my reservations about it potentially not having the same wow-effect for the voters are kind of gone. I can absolutely see AMPAS picking it as their MCU Oscar representative once again with its emotional baggage and (seemingly) much improved visuals. Plus the movie will obviously be huge. I agree. The trailer had 172M views in the first 24 hours. But I'm having trouble deciding which blockbuster will be big with AMPAS. We already have Top Gun breaking box office records and it's hard to count out James Cameron. I don't think Top Gun, Black Panther, AND Avatar will be nominated.
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Post by JangoB on Sept 22, 2022 12:46:13 GMT
Just wanted to take a stab at a fuller predictions list before the proper start of the awards season. All I can say is: goddammit, Scorsese! Way to make the guessing game more difficult.
I tried to rank them according to nomination likelihood (as presumed by me).
BEST PICTURE 1. The Fabelmans 2. Women Talking 3. The Banshees of Inisherin 4. Babylon 5. Everything Everywhere All at Once 6. TÁR 7. Bardo 8. Top Gun: Maverick 9. She Said 10. Living
BEST DIRECTOR 1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans 2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon 3. Todd Field, TÁR 4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking 5. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Bardo
BEST ACTOR 1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale 2. Austin Butler, Elvis 3. Bill Nighy, Living 4. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin 5. Hugh Jackman, The Son
BEST ACTRESS 1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR 2. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans 3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once 4. Margot Robbie, Babylon 5. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 1. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin 2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans 3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking 4. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once 5. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 1. Claire Foy, Women Talking 2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking 3. Jean Smart, Babylon 4. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin 5. Hong Chau, The Whale
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 1. The Fabelmans 2. The Banshees of Inisherin 3. Everything Everywhere All at Once 4. TÁR 5. Babylon
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 1. Women Talking 2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 3. Living 4. She Said 5. White Noise
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 1. Babylon 2. Bardo 3. Empire of Light 4. The Fabelmans 5. Top Gun: Maverick
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN 1. Babylon 2. Elvis 3. The Fabelmans 4. Bardo 5. Amsterdam
BEST EDITING 1. Top Gun: Maverick 2. Everything Everywhere All at Once 3. Babylon 4. Avatar: The Way of Water 5. The Fabelmans
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 1. The Fabelmans 2. Babylon 3. Empire of Light 4. GDT's Pinocchio 5. Women Talking
BEST COSTUME DESIGN 1. Babylon 2. Elvis 3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 4. Amsterdam 5. The Fabelmans
BEST SOUND 1. Top Gun: Maverick 2. Avatar: The Way of Water 3. Elvis 4. Babylon 5. The Batman
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS 1. Avatar: The Way of Water 2. Top Gun: Maverick 3. The Batman 4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING 1. The Batman 2. Elvis 3. The Whale 4. Babylon 5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
BEST ANIMATED FILM 1. GDT's Pinocchio 2. Turning Red 3. My Father's Dragon 4. Wendell & Wild 5. Strange World
So something like that. I decided to go 'fuck it' and stick with Bardo because I do believe that a personal movie that showy from a filmmaker that beloved by AMPAS can make it big even despite the angry reviews. The trailer kinda furthered those suspicions for me.
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