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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2022 22:53:27 GMT
For Best Actor as Elvis Presley?  |
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Post by stephen on Jun 19, 2022 22:57:44 GMT
As of right now, yes. He's a strong favorite for the Globe and the reviews are strong enough and the role is baity as hell. The only thing that works against him is the early release date.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Jun 19, 2022 22:59:44 GMT
Yes, apart from the early release date, he has everything going for him. Just think is too soon to talk about winning yet.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2022 23:07:37 GMT
He's awfully young for Oscar love for a male actor... I'd say that's more of a hindrance than the release date.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jun 19, 2022 23:24:52 GMT
He's awfully young for Oscar love for a male actor... I'd say that's more of a hindrance than the release date. Yes, right now I am predicting him, but this gives me pause. Plus not knowing how competitive the rest of the year might be at this point. It does seem the Oscars are a little bit better at nominating young actors (Hedges, Chalamet, Kaluuya, Smit-McPhee), but it’s still a big hurdle especially if this is a really strong year by the end of the year. Plus Diego Calva could be right there with a bigger movie although less baity role, and he’s almost the same age as Butler, so that might be a problem again depending on how strong a year it is. Also I don’t think it’s likely, but a month ago I did read a few predictors who are generally good about what the Oscars will end up liking, talking up The Greatest Beer Run Ever and Zac Efron, so again there might be another potential competitor for narrative of former teen television actor turned potential Oscar nominee. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jun 20, 2022 0:41:37 GMT
Yes, I think it’s extremely likely.
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Post by countjohn on Jun 20, 2022 1:24:25 GMT
Can't say for sure because I haven't seen the movie but the buzz on this seems to have really rebounded so I'm gonna say yes for now. The early release date will probably keep it from a BP nod and keep Butler from being a factor to win but he'll get into the 4-5 spot and it will get a bunch of techs.
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Post by Miles Morales on Jun 20, 2022 15:45:25 GMT
Unless WB fumbles the bag in campaigning, yes.
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Post by wallsofjericho on Jun 20, 2022 15:52:22 GMT
I'm going to say yes.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jun 20, 2022 15:56:21 GMT
The movie looks disgustingly baity but yeah probably.
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SZilla
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Post by SZilla on Jun 20, 2022 15:57:55 GMT
It's possible, but he's a younger man, who often have trouble getting in the Best Actor category, let alone winning.
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Post by JangoB on Jun 20, 2022 15:58:01 GMT
For sure. Even though it's early, I already think Elvis can easily get 5 nominations - Actor, Costumes, Sound, Production Design and Makeup. Throw in a BP nod if it's a big enough success and there you go.
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Schiggy
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Post by Schiggy on Jun 24, 2022 18:36:01 GMT
People are saying how "young" he is. I thought he was 24. He's 30! Which I guess is still a fetus compared to the average Oscar voter being 90.
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Post by quetee on Jun 24, 2022 19:09:21 GMT
People are saying how "young" he is. I thought he was 24. He's 30! Which I guess is still a fetus compared to the average Oscar voter being 90. Wow, I thought he was mid 20s also. So that means he would be older than Brody?? |
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LaraQ
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Post by LaraQ on Jun 24, 2022 19:34:58 GMT
A nomination?.Absolutely.I wouldn't rule out a win either.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2022 20:20:53 GMT
People are saying how "young" he is. I thought he was 24. He's 30! Which I guess is still a fetus compared to the average Oscar voter being 90. He uses Biologique Recherche products. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Jun 27, 2022 11:07:44 GMT
Release date doesn't matter folks. Studios campaign for these films. This is one of the many films Warner Brothers will submit FOR CONSIDERATION.
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Post by stephen on Jul 27, 2022 15:08:25 GMT
With the rumors that Domingo and DiCaprio might get bumped to 2023, Butler's nomination chances are solidifying and his winner equity is rising. I still think Jackman's going to be the one to beat at this stage, but Butler's competition is thinning.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jul 27, 2022 15:33:23 GMT
With the rumors that Domingo and DiCaprio might get bumped to 2023, Butler's nomination chances are solidifying and his winner equity is rising. I still think Jackman's going to be the one to beat at this stage, but Butler's competition is thinning. It's premature but I'm predicting Fraser vs. Butler, but I can see Jackman circling around, waiting for either of them to lose momentum. With DiCaprio and Domingo out, the race is looking quite scarce and I'm having a hard time seeing who the other three are. Bale? Calva or will they push Pitt lead instead? Michael Ward? I have a hard time seeing two relatively unknown, young actors (Butler and either Calva or Ward) hitting the line-up but I also don't have a lot of faith in Driver this year. Daniel Gimenez Cacho? Unknown too. With the right campaign maybe Bill Nighy could get in. |
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Post by stephen on Jul 27, 2022 15:39:59 GMT
With the rumors that Domingo and DiCaprio might get bumped to 2023, Butler's nomination chances are solidifying and his winner equity is rising. I still think Jackman's going to be the one to beat at this stage, but Butler's competition is thinning. It's premature but I'm predicting Fraser vs. Butler, but I can see Jackman circling around, waiting for either of them to lose momentum. With DiCaprio and Domingo out, the race is looking quite scarce and I'm having a hard time seeing who the other three are. Bale? Calva or will they push Pitt lead instead? Michael Ward? I have a hard time seeing two relatively unknown, young actors (Butler and either Calva or Ward) hitting the line-up but I also don't have a lot of faith in Driver this year. Daniel Gimenez Cacho? Unknown too. With the right campaign maybe Bill Nighy could get in. Everyone's sleeping on Bill Nighy as a contender. He's got the raves and the studio is a good one, and it's getting an OOC berth at Venice so they are pushing it. But he looks to be a sole contender for his film; if I had faith in the film around him getting in, I'd rate him higher. Right now I'd rate the contenders thus: 1. Jackman 2. Butler 3. Nighy 4. Bale (it remains to be seen how they respond to the film and how it weathers the DOR backlash, but they love it when he works with Bale) 5. Fraser 6. Firth/Ward (not sure which one is going lead, but I feel one of them is going to be a bigger player than people think) 7. Cacho (might rise higher after Venice, especially as he looks to be the big Netflix push) 8. Calva 9. Cruise (might seem crazy, but I feel like Top Gun: Maverick is going to have legs and I can see Cruise scoring a random industry nod or two) |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 27, 2022 15:48:44 GMT
Also Farrell
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Post by stephen on Jul 27, 2022 15:53:32 GMT
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jul 27, 2022 15:56:11 GMT
It's premature but I'm predicting Fraser vs. Butler, but I can see Jackman circling around, waiting for either of them to lose momentum. With DiCaprio and Domingo out, the race is looking quite scarce and I'm having a hard time seeing who the other three are. Bale? Calva or will they push Pitt lead instead? Michael Ward? I have a hard time seeing two relatively unknown, young actors (Butler and either Calva or Ward) hitting the line-up but I also don't have a lot of faith in Driver this year. Daniel Gimenez Cacho? Unknown too. With the right campaign maybe Bill Nighy could get in. Everyone's sleeping on Bill Nighy as a contender. He's got the raves and the studio is a good one, and it's getting an OOC berth at Venice so they are pushing it. But he looks to be a sole contender for his film; if I had faith in the film around him getting in, I'd rate him higher. Right now I'd rate the contenders thus: 1. Jackman 2. Butler 3. Nighy 4. Bale (it remains to be seen how they respond to the film and how it weathers the DOR backlash, but they love it when he works with Bale) 5. Fraser 6. Firth/Ward (not sure which one is going lead, but I feel one of them is going to be a bigger player than people think) 7. Cacho (might rise higher after Venice, especially as he looks to be the big Netflix push) 8. Calva 9. Cruise (might seem crazy, but I feel like Top Gun: Maverick is going to have legs and I can see Cruise scoring a random industry nod or two) Better move Nighy up in my predictions then  . I too have very little faith in the film and it just feels like such a this had Oscar buzz type of film/performance, that could easily get drown out in a busy season but we'll see. I think Amsterdam is really the biggest question mark of the season. It feel like it could easily get 10 or 0 nominations based on backlash. Right now I'm cautiously predicting Bale but it could. Firth is definitely supporting, he's actually been described as more of a glorified cameo as the owner of the movie theater who repeatedly takes sexual advantages of Colman when she's unable to consent
so I don't see him getting in. I have no idea if Ward if lead or supporting. From what I'm lead to believe, he is the co-lead but I feel like he could easily be submitted supporting if they think he benefits from it. I feel like you might be under predicting Fraser here. It would easily be the biggest comeback narrative of the season that has been building up for a few years with massive amount of goodwill for him. It's "transformative!" with a ton of prosthetics as well as a weight gain, playing someone unrecognizably obese, gay and dying, trying to reconnect with his daughter. Everything about this screams Oscar. The only one I feel might have an edge on him right now is Butler (who also has the transformative, "woah! who is this?!" narrative and has the edge of playing a real life icon in a box office hit) but I think the race between them will get very exciting. Then again, it's July. |
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Post by stephen on Jul 27, 2022 16:33:42 GMT
Everyone's sleeping on Bill Nighy as a contender. He's got the raves and the studio is a good one, and it's getting an OOC berth at Venice so they are pushing it. But he looks to be a sole contender for his film; if I had faith in the film around him getting in, I'd rate him higher. Right now I'd rate the contenders thus: 1. Jackman 2. Butler 3. Nighy 4. Bale (it remains to be seen how they respond to the film and how it weathers the DOR backlash, but they love it when he works with Bale) 5. Fraser 6. Firth/Ward (not sure which one is going lead, but I feel one of them is going to be a bigger player than people think) 7. Cacho (might rise higher after Venice, especially as he looks to be the big Netflix push) 8. Calva 9. Cruise (might seem crazy, but I feel like Top Gun: Maverick is going to have legs and I can see Cruise scoring a random industry nod or two) Better move Nighy up in my predictions then . I too have very little faith in the film and it just feels like such a this had Oscar buzz type of film/performance, that could easily get drown out in a busy season but we'll see. I think Amsterdam is really the biggest question mark of the season. It feel like it could easily get 10 or 0 nominations based on backlash. Right now I'm cautiously predicting Bale but it could. Firth is definitely supporting, he's actually been described as more of a glorified cameo so I don't see him getting in. I have no idea if Ward if lead or supporting. From what I'm lead to believe, he is the co-lead but I feel like he could easily be submitted supporting if they think he benefits from it. I feel like you might be under predicting Fraser here. It would easily be the biggest comeback narrative of the season that has been building up for a few years with massive amount of goodwill for him. It's "transformative!" with a ton of prosthetics as well as a weight gain, playing someone unrecognizably obese, gay and dying, trying to reconnect with his daughter. Everything about this screams Oscar. The only one I feel might have an edge on him right now is Butler (who also has the transformative, "woah! who is this?!" narrative and has the edge of playing a real life icon in a box office hit) but I think the race between them will get very exciting. Then again, it's July. I think Nighy's veteran status will be what propels him forward, and that film is BAFTA catnip even under the new system. I feel like he's going to be the Brit bloc's horse this year for Best Actor. Fraser, I want to believe he's going to be a big thing but Aronofsky misses as much as he hits. But I am really hoping that this lands. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Jul 27, 2022 16:39:16 GMT
Right now, he's looking win-capable. A lot of his potential challengers are being moved back to 2023.
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. I too have very little faith in the film and it just feels like such a this had Oscar buzz type of film/performance, that could easily get drown out in a busy season but we'll see. 
