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Post by michael128 on Feb 9, 2022 20:59:04 GMT
We were all so sure about Roma winning a couple of years ago that I am more conservative this time. Like The Power of the Dog, Roma was so strong that it got Marina de Tavira in out of nowhere and hit all key categories (except Editing where Green Book of all movies was nominated; that was such a bad look for the Academy), but it still lost to a pedestrian piece of shit that wasn't even nominated for best director in the end because it was too arty or something. I think it definitely is looking like a steamroller at the moment, but anything could happen. Problem is this year's other nominees all missed something crucial and/or don't have the narrative for a potential win. Dune and Don't Look Up didn't get any acting nominations and missed Director, West Side Story missed Adapted Screenplay and Editing, CODA and Drive My Car are just too small to win and didn't get any important tech nominations, Nightmare Alley missed acting, Director and Screenplay nominations, and Licorice Pizza didn't get anything beyond the main three. The only ones who could challenge it are Belfast and King Richard (oddly enough), and the former likely got screwed by missing an Editing nomination and the latter has nowhere near enough popularity to pull a Green Book. Could Belfast still pull off a Driving Miss Daisy/Green Book? Possibly, but it's not even close to as widely watched and liked as those two so I wouldn't bet on it for now. Power of the Dog, on the other hand, hit literally everything it needed to and has been incredibly strong throughout the season. It's difficult to buy anything else as a challenger when they all have some major setbacks while POTD has none. Didn’t Green Book miss directing? What “narrative” did that have? Isn’t Belfast doing great at UK box office? What setbacks did Roma have? Netflix bias?
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 9, 2022 22:19:44 GMT
We were all so sure about Roma winning a couple of years ago that I am more conservative this time. Like The Power of the Dog, Roma was so strong that it got Marina de Tavira in out of nowhere and hit all key categories (except Editing where Green Book of all movies was nominated; that was such a bad look for the Academy), but it still lost to a pedestrian piece of shit that wasn't even nominated for best director in the end because it was too arty or something. I think it definitely is looking like a steamroller at the moment, but anything could happen. Differences are: A) Power of the Dog isn't in foreign language, which is a hindrance, even if Parasite managed to overcome it; B) Because of pandemic, the anti-Netflix bias is smaller. Problem is this year's other nominees all missed something crucial and/or don't have the narrative for a potential win. Dune and Don't Look Up didn't get any acting nominations and missed Director, West Side Story missed Adapted Screenplay and Editing, CODA and Drive My Car are just too small to win and didn't get any important tech nominations, Nightmare Alley missed acting, Director and Screenplay nominations, and Licorice Pizza didn't get anything beyond the main three. The only ones who could challenge it are Belfast and King Richard (oddly enough), and the former likely got screwed by missing an Editing nomination and the latter has nowhere near enough popularity to pull a Green Book. Could Belfast still pull off a Driving Miss Daisy/Green Book? Possibly, but it's not even close to as widely watched and liked as those two so I wouldn't bet on it for now. Power of the Dog, on the other hand, hit literally everything it needed to and has been incredibly strong throughout the season. It's difficult to buy anything else as a challenger when they all have some major setbacks while POTD has none. Didn’t Green Book miss directing? What “narrative” did that have? Isn’t Belfast doing great at UK box office? What setbacks did Roma have? Netflix bias? Anti-Netflix, in Spanish, black and white, movie about a Mexican maid won't resonate with all the American and European audiences, etc, you name it.
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 9, 2022 22:36:03 GMT
Problem is this year's other nominees all missed something crucial and/or don't have the narrative for a potential win. Dune and Don't Look Up didn't get any acting nominations and missed Director, West Side Story missed Adapted Screenplay and Editing, CODA and Drive My Car are just too small to win and didn't get any important tech nominations, Nightmare Alley missed acting, Director and Screenplay nominations, and Licorice Pizza didn't get anything beyond the main three. The only ones who could challenge it are Belfast and King Richard (oddly enough), and the former likely got screwed by missing an Editing nomination and the latter has nowhere near enough popularity to pull a Green Book. Could Belfast still pull off a Driving Miss Daisy/Green Book? Possibly, but it's not even close to as widely watched and liked as those two so I wouldn't bet on it for now. Power of the Dog, on the other hand, hit literally everything it needed to and has been incredibly strong throughout the season. It's difficult to buy anything else as a challenger when they all have some major setbacks while POTD has none. Didn’t Green Book miss directing? What “narrative” did that have? Isn’t Belfast doing great at UK box office? What setbacks did Roma have? Netflix bias? If we run down to the list:
Belfast - No Editing (Nominated for PGA, DGA, SAGE) CODA - No directing and editing (No DGA nod) Don't Look Up - No directing (No DGA nod) Dune - No directing (No SAGE nod) Drive My Car - No editing (No PGA, DGA, SAGE) King Richard - No directing (No DGA) Licorice Pizza - No editing (No SAGE) Nightmare Alley - No directing, writing, editing (No PGA, DGA, SAGE) The Power of the Dog - Hit on all three (No SAGE) West Side Story - No writing and editing (No SAGE)
I think it is going to be between Belfast and Dog. Those have the lesser handicaps.
Not sure why you mention Green Book here. Green Book won the Globe and NBR, along with TIFF. Belfast didn't win the Globe in any category. If Belfast wins the PGA, then I think it has some momentum. But I think right now, Dog is the favorite to win. Don't get me wrong, I liked The Power of the Dog, but I did not love it as much as CODA, King Richard, and Licorice Pizza.
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Post by stabcaesar on Feb 10, 2022 6:18:30 GMT
We were all so sure about Roma winning a couple of years ago that I am more conservative this time. Like The Power of the Dog, Roma was so strong that it got Marina de Tavira in out of nowhere and hit all key categories (except Editing where Green Book of all movies was nominated; that was such a bad look for the Academy), but it still lost to a pedestrian piece of shit that wasn't even nominated for best director in the end because it was too arty or something. I think it definitely is looking like a steamroller at the moment, but anything could happen. Problem is this year's other nominees all missed something crucial and/or don't have the narrative for a potential win. Dune and Don't Look Up didn't get any acting nominations and missed Director, West Side Story missed Adapted Screenplay and Editing, CODA and Drive My Car are just too small to win and didn't get any important tech nominations, Nightmare Alley missed acting, Director and Screenplay nominations, and Licorice Pizza didn't get anything beyond the main three. The only ones who could challenge it are Belfast and King Richard (oddly enough), and the former likely got screwed by missing an Editing nomination and the latter has nowhere near enough popularity to pull a Green Book. Could Belfast still pull off a Driving Miss Daisy/Green Book? Possibly, but it's not even close to as widely watched and liked as those two so I wouldn't bet on it for now. Power of the Dog, on the other hand, hit literally everything it needed to and has been incredibly strong throughout the season. It's difficult to buy anything else as a challenger when they all have some major setbacks while POTD has none. I think Belfast is the only threat. No one thought Green Book could challenge Roma before it won PGA either. Belfast did miss editing but Green Book missed direction and was hated by many critics. Belfast isn't as loved by the audience, but neither is The Power of the Dog. I do think The Power of the Dog has the strongest profile by far at the moment. I'm just saying anything could happen given how crazy this award has been in the past several years.
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Post by Miles Morales on Feb 10, 2022 6:52:10 GMT
Problem is this year's other nominees all missed something crucial and/or don't have the narrative for a potential win. Dune and Don't Look Up didn't get any acting nominations and missed Director, West Side Story missed Adapted Screenplay and Editing, CODA and Drive My Car are just too small to win and didn't get any important tech nominations, Nightmare Alley missed acting, Director and Screenplay nominations, and Licorice Pizza didn't get anything beyond the main three. The only ones who could challenge it are Belfast and King Richard (oddly enough), and the former likely got screwed by missing an Editing nomination and the latter has nowhere near enough popularity to pull a Green Book. Could Belfast still pull off a Driving Miss Daisy/Green Book? Possibly, but it's not even close to as widely watched and liked as those two so I wouldn't bet on it for now. Power of the Dog, on the other hand, hit literally everything it needed to and has been incredibly strong throughout the season. It's difficult to buy anything else as a challenger when they all have some major setbacks while POTD has none. I think Belfast is the only threat. No one thought Green Book could challenge Roma before it won PGA either. Belfast did miss editing but Green Book missed direction and was hated by many critics. Belfast isn't as loved by the audience, but neither is The Power of the Dog. I do think The Power of the Dog has the strongest profile by far at the moment. I'm just saying anything could happen given how crazy this award has been in the past several years. I think the best we can do is just wait and watch. PGA is likely going to be the crucial point.
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Post by michael128 on Feb 10, 2022 22:15:15 GMT
We were all so sure about Roma winning a couple of years ago that I am more conservative this time. Like The Power of the Dog, Roma was so strong that it got Marina de Tavira in out of nowhere and hit all key categories (except Editing where Green Book of all movies was nominated; that was such a bad look for the Academy), but it still lost to a pedestrian piece of shit that wasn't even nominated for best director in the end because it was too arty or something. I think it definitely is looking like a steamroller at the moment, but anything could happen. Differences are: A) Power of the Dog isn't in foreign language, which is a hindrance, even if Parasite managed to overcome it; B) Because of pandemic, the anti-Netflix bias is smaller. Didn’t Green Book miss directing? What “narrative” did that have? Isn’t Belfast doing great at UK box office? What setbacks did Roma have? Netflix bias? Anti-Netflix, in Spanish, black and white, movie about a Mexican maid won't resonate with all the American and European audiences, etc, you name it. So things against TPOTD: -netflix -homophobes -older republican voters who take issue with the critique of masculinity (actually toxis masc, but some people won't see it that way) -fairly unemotional movie -been a while since I saw it, but isn't it a very "american" movie? does it have international appeal -I'm also getting a La La Land vibe in that it's been the frontrunner for so long, that people might get bored of it. There's still a long time before voting starts and regarding your point B) above, is there evidence of that? seems like an assumption to me
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Post by michael128 on Feb 10, 2022 22:23:02 GMT
Didn’t Green Book miss directing? What “narrative” did that have? Isn’t Belfast doing great at UK box office? What setbacks did Roma have? Netflix bias? If we run down to the list:
Belfast - No Editing (Nominated for PGA, DGA, SAGE) CODA - No directing and editing (No DGA nod) Don't Look Up - No directing (No DGA nod) Dune - No directing (No SAGE nod) Drive My Car - No editing (No PGA, DGA, SAGE) King Richard - No directing (No DGA) Licorice Pizza - No editing (No SAGE) Nightmare Alley - No directing, writing, editing (No PGA, DGA, SAGE) The Power of the Dog - Hit on all three (No SAGE) West Side Story - No writing and editing (No SAGE)
I think it is going to be between Belfast and Dog. Those have the lesser handicaps.
Not sure why you mention Green Book here. Green Book won the Globe and NBR, along with TIFF. Belfast didn't win the Globe in any category. If Belfast wins the PGA, then I think it has some momentum. But I think right now, Dog is the favorite to win. Don't get me wrong, I liked The Power of the Dog, but I did not love it as much as CODA, King Richard, and Licorice Pizza.
I mentioned Green Book because the user I was replying to did. They said that all of TPOTD's competition missed something crucial and had no narrative. Green Book missed director and didn't have a narrative (that I'm aware of). Correct me if I'm wrong. Globes are voted on by like 80 racists. Irrelevant imo. NBR? Their BP for the last decade has aligned with the Oscars like once? Belfast won the audience award at TIFF, like Green Book.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 10, 2022 22:26:12 GMT
Yes, it's an assumption that the anti-Netflix bias in the Academy is smaller, but there's a reason for that: with the pandemic, people got used to seeing movies at home, Netflix increased it's viewership, and even Spielberg is working with them
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 11, 2022 0:48:24 GMT
I mentioned Green Book because the user I was replying to did. They said that all of TPOTD's competition missed something crucial and had no narrative. Green Book missed director and didn't have a narrative (that I'm aware of). Correct me if I'm wrong. Globes are voted on by like 80 racists. Irrelevant imo. NBR? Their BP for the last decade has aligned with the Oscars like once? Belfast won the audience award at TIFF, like Green Book. I am not sure if I understand this concept of "narratives". Green Book got the most the heat from "film twitter". It was called "secretly racist" and the co-writer/co-producer Nick Vallelonga got criticized for endorsing a provocative statement made by Trump. None of this mattered. Netflix being attached to Roma didn't hurt its chances. The issue was that Roma was an intentionally slow-moving drama about a house maid. Green Book was more of a movie that appealed to older voters and their reconciliation about race.
The obvious front-runner today is The Power of the Dog. It got nominated for acting, directing, writing, and editing. None of the other films got that. It also won the Globe and the heavy favorite to win Best Director.
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Post by michael128 on Feb 11, 2022 1:04:07 GMT
I mentioned Green Book because the user I was replying to did. They said that all of TPOTD's competition missed something crucial and had no narrative. Green Book missed director and didn't have a narrative (that I'm aware of). Correct me if I'm wrong. Globes are voted on by like 80 racists. Irrelevant imo. NBR? Their BP for the last decade has aligned with the Oscars like once? Belfast won the audience award at TIFF, like Green Book. I am not sure if I understand this concept of "narratives". Green Book got the most the heat from "film twitter". It was called "secretly racist" and the co-writer/co-producer Nick Vallelonga got criticized for endorsing a provocative statement made by Trump. None of this mattered. Netflix being attached to Roma didn't hurt its chances. The issue was that Roma was an intentionally slow-moving drama about a house maid. Green Book was more of a movie that appealed to older voters and their reconciliation about race.
The obvious front-runner today is The Power of the Dog. It got nominated for acting, directing, writing, and editing. None of the other films got that. It also won the Globe and the heavy favorite to win Best Director.
Yes I agree, it didn't have a narrative. That's my point. The original post I replied to said none of the current contenders can challenge TPOTD because they all either "missed something crucial and/or don't have the narrative". I'm pointing out that Green Book missed Director AND didn't have a narrative, yet it still won. The issue was that Roma was an intentionally slow-moving drama about a house maid. Green Book was more of a movie that appealed to older voters and their reconciliation about race.TPOTD is a slow-moving drama about masculinity. Belfast is more of a movie that appeals to older voters and immigrants and British people.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 11, 2022 1:09:30 GMT
I mentioned Green Book because the user I was replying to did. They said that all of TPOTD's competition missed something crucial and had no narrative. Green Book missed director and didn't have a narrative (that I'm aware of). Correct me if I'm wrong. Globes are voted on by like 80 racists. Irrelevant imo. NBR? Their BP for the last decade has aligned with the Oscars like once? Belfast won the audience award at TIFF, like Green Book. I am not sure if I understand this concept of "narratives". Green Book got the most the heat from "film twitter". It was called "secretly racist" and the co-writer/co-producer Nick Vallelonga got criticized for endorsing a provocative statement made by Trump. None of this mattered. Netflix being attached to Roma didn't hurt its chances. The issue was that Roma was an intentionally slow-moving drama about a house maid. Green Book was more of a movie that appealed to older voters and their reconciliation about race.
The obvious front-runner today is The Power of the Dog. It got nominated for acting, directing, writing, and editing. None of the other films got that. It also won the Globe and the heavy favorite to win Best Director.
What? Green Book had random dudes in the internet as backlash. Roma had anti-Netflix backlash with Steve Spielberg leading the charge. Of course it played a role.
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Post by mrimpossible on Feb 11, 2022 1:39:10 GMT
At this point if Power of the Dog loses it's going to be of Netflix bias.
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Post by michael128 on Feb 11, 2022 1:54:12 GMT
Could someone remind me how best picture winners are determined? Is it the same for all categories?
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 11, 2022 2:54:50 GMT
I am not sure if I understand this concept of "narratives". Green Book got the most the heat from "film twitter". It was called "secretly racist" and the co-writer/co-producer Nick Vallelonga got criticized for endorsing a provocative statement made by Trump. None of this mattered. Netflix being attached to Roma didn't hurt its chances. The issue was that Roma was an intentionally slow-moving drama about a house maid. Green Book was more of a movie that appealed to older voters and their reconciliation about race.
The obvious front-runner today is The Power of the Dog. It got nominated for acting, directing, writing, and editing. None of the other films got that. It also won the Globe and the heavy favorite to win Best Director.
What? Green Book had random dudes in the internet as backlash. Roma had anti-Netflix backlash with Steve Spielberg leading the charge. Of course it played a role. Lets understand a few things here. Steven Spielberg never actually bashed Netflix. His only point was that streaming service films need to actually attempt a legitimate theatrical run. If the Academy was so anti-Netflix, why they did nominate Mudbound get nominated for four Oscars? Why did they nominated The Two Popes, Marriage Story, the Trial of the Chicago 7, Roma, Don't Look Up, and so forth for any Oscar nominations?
We seem to be engaging in conspiracy theories here. I just think Green Book was the more audience-friendly picture. That's why it beat out Roma at TIFF as well. It is movie that going to get mainly #1, #2, and #3 votes. Roma wasn't for everybody.
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 11, 2022 3:01:06 GMT
Could someone remind me how best picture winners are determined? Is it the same for all categories? No. They use a preferential ballot system for Best Picture. Every member is told to rank the Best Picture nominees from best to worst. A movie can only win Best Picture, if it gets over 50% of the #1 votes. If no nominee gets over 50% of the #1 votes, then the ballots with the least number of #1 votes gets eliminated it, and the next highest ranked film gets the #1 vote. For example, lets say Nightmare Alley gets the least number of #1 votes, then all of the ballots with Nightmare Alley as their #1 choice gets a new #1 vote.
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Post by Miles Morales on Feb 11, 2022 9:19:15 GMT
Yes I agree, it didn't have a narrative. That's my point. The original post I replied to said none of the current contenders can challenge TPOTD because they all either "missed something crucial and/or don't have the narrative". I'm pointing out that Green Book missed Director AND didn't have a narrative, yet it still won. Green Book did have a narrative about being a feel-good film about denouncing racism that appealed to older voters, and was doing pretty well at the box office at the time, while Belfast has been pretty small at the US box office so far (of course, it's doing well at UK and it's getting a re-expansion this weekend, so there's plenty of room for improvement). And from a purely statistical standpoint, while GB missed Director (winning Picture without a Director nomination is rare), Roma ended up missing Editing (winning Picture without Editing is even rarer). In all likelihood, Roma ultimately ended up being too alienating for Academy voters so they went with the more broadly appealing choice, despite the backlash GB got. Could the wide-appealing Belfast win against the cold and distant Power of the Dog in a preferential ballot? Sure it could, but POTD did amazing in the Oscars nominations and didn't miss anything, while Belfast ended up missing the crucial Editing nomination and Caitriona Balfe didn't get a nomination either despite performing so well at the precursors. Makes me believe that POTD was more beloved by the Academy than what was assumed beforehand. There's a good possibility that POTD's cold nature will cost it the prize at the end and they will go with the safer choice, Belfast, but I won't bet on it right now given how incredibly strong POTD has been even in the industry and guild awards. Like I said before, we should wait and see before PGA. That's likely going to be the crucial point this season. P.S.: Another factor that makes me believe that POTD is a sure-shot frontrunner is that the more offbeat Nomadland ended up thoroughly demolishing the broadly populist The Trial of the Chicago 7 last year throughout the season despite TOTC7's relevant themes. The Academy is probably no longer afraid to reward more esoteric fare over more wide-appealing ones.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Mar 14, 2022 3:37:23 GMT
Really starting to feel like CODA's gonna take this.
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havok2
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Post by havok2 on Mar 17, 2022 3:13:15 GMT
Nope. Remember to always predict against this board. Also, hard to see what else is winning outside of Directing. Dune is taking Cinematography and most techs. CODA could take Screenplay
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 17, 2022 3:16:13 GMT
Nope. Remember to always predict against this board. Also, hard to see what else is winning outside of Directing. Dune is taking Cinematography and most techs. CODA could take Screenplay Based on what?? Almost every one of us was predicting Nomadland last year, and we were about 50/50 when it came to Parasite.
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Post by stabcaesar on Mar 17, 2022 3:21:23 GMT
Interestingly it looks like TPTD's strongest competition is CODA at this point instead of Belfast. It is incredibly well-loved by literally everyone and they are running an incredible campaign led by Kotsur and Jones. It will win supporting actor, is a major threat to win adapted screenplay, and these two are enough for it to win BP if there's enough passion.
I still think TPTD is gonna win though.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Mar 17, 2022 13:07:12 GMT
Interestingly it looks like TPTD's strongest competition is CODA at this point instead of Belfast. It is incredibly well-loved by literally everyone and they are running an incredible campaign led by Kotsur and Jones. It will win supporting actor, is a major threat to win adapted screenplay, and these two are enough for it to win BP if there's enough passion. I still think TPTD is gonna win though. Yeah the CODA surge is pretty remarkable.
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Steve17
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Post by Steve17 on Mar 17, 2022 15:12:47 GMT
Yeah, I think so. I've seen 6 of the BP nominees so far, and it's my second to least favorite of them.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Mar 20, 2022 7:52:48 GMT
Really starting to feel like CODA's gonna take this. Really REALLY starting to feel like CODA's gonna take this.
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 20, 2022 11:19:08 GMT
I'm at about 50/50.
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Post by Brother Fease on Mar 20, 2022 12:05:18 GMT
Nope. Remember to always predict against this board. Also, hard to see what else is winning outside of Directing. Dune is taking Cinematography and most techs. CODA could take Screenplay Based on what?? Almost every one of us was predicting Nomadland last year, and we were about 50/50 when it came to Parasite. 18 votes for 1917, 12 for Parasite, 1 for Hollywood. That's a split vote to me
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