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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 8, 2022 23:25:45 GMT
Just curious. Do we all agree that TPOTD is the favorite to win Best Picture? I stubbornly had Belfast as my #1, but not anymore.
Today, The Power of the Dog got nominated for directing, writing, and editing, AND all four of the main characters got nominated. Cheers for Jesse Plemons. The SAG Ensemble miss is pretty irrelevant now. Belfast failing to get editing, pretty much made it a wash.
Do you expect The Power of the Dog to win the PGA and DGA? Could we see Belfast and The Power of the Dog split with the PGA and DGA awards?
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Post by mrimpossible on Feb 8, 2022 23:27:51 GMT
Yup I expect it to sweep in PGA, DGA and BAFTA.
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Post by JangoB on Feb 8, 2022 23:32:14 GMT
Yes we do!
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 8, 2022 23:41:45 GMT
Yes, although at this point is not a lock by any means. Belfast could still win (snubbing in editing means little considering in the previous 9 years, one movie won without it and two won without directing), specially if the anti-Netflix bias that affected Rome at least to some extent plays a role (but post-pandemic, I don't expect it), but it has all the momentum, and I find hard to be affected by too much backlash if it isn't hasn't by now.
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Post by DaleCooper on Feb 8, 2022 23:47:59 GMT
Yeah, can't really see any other film winning but let's all hope for a Drive My Car upset. Best film by far from the last year.
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Post by stephen on Feb 9, 2022 0:24:59 GMT
Feels like the safest bet since Slumdog, if not Return of the King.
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Post by finniussnrub on Feb 9, 2022 0:43:31 GMT
Anti-Netflix bias gets its final test. Probably will finally lose out.
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Post by futuretrunks on Feb 9, 2022 0:45:06 GMT
How the hell is a film that boring supposed to win Best Picture?
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 9, 2022 0:46:47 GMT
Feels like the safest bet since Slumdog, if not Return of the King. Nah, not yet. Too soon before the Guilds. Specially considering it does have things against it, but probably not enough. If it takes PGA- which has preferential system, and usually producers tend to favor more populist stuff- then yeah, it's a done deal.
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Post by mhynson27 on Feb 9, 2022 0:59:05 GMT
Just curious. Do we all agree that TPOTD is the favorite to win Best Picture? I stubbornly had Belfast as my #1, but not anymore.
Today, The Power of the Dog got nominated for directing, writing, and editing, AND all four of the main characters got nominated. Cheers for Jesse Plemons. The SAG Ensemble miss is pretty irrelevant now. Belfast failing to get editing, pretty much made it a wash.
Do you expect The Power of the Dog to win the PGA and DGA? Could we see Belfast and The Power of the Dog split with the PGA and DGA awards?
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 9, 2022 1:12:14 GMT
Just curious. Do we all agree that TPOTD is the favorite to win Best Picture? I stubbornly had Belfast as my #1, but not anymore.
Today, The Power of the Dog got nominated for directing, writing, and editing, AND all four of the main characters got nominated. Cheers for Jesse Plemons. The SAG Ensemble miss is pretty irrelevant now. Belfast failing to get editing, pretty much made it a wash.
Do you expect The Power of the Dog to win the PGA and DGA? Could we see Belfast and The Power of the Dog split with the PGA and DGA awards?
Do you think TPOTD will win PGA and DGA, or do you think Licorice Pizza or Belfast will take one of the two awards?
Cool memo my friend.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 9, 2022 1:36:15 GMT
Definitely the favorite and will likely end up sweeping, but I can still see it losing to Belfast or Don’t Look Up.
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Post by mrimpossible on Feb 9, 2022 2:33:06 GMT
Feels like the safest bet since Slumdog, if not Return of the King. Nomadland was just as safe a bet last year. It won pretty much every BP award it got nominated for.
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Post by stephen on Feb 9, 2022 2:39:16 GMT
Feels like the safest bet since Slumdog, if not Return of the King. Nomadland was just as safe a bet last year. It won pretty much every BP award it got nominated for. It did, but Power of the Dog feels more overall dominant across the board in terms of multiple acting nods and techs, which is what makes me think of those aforementioned Picture winners.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 9, 2022 2:44:53 GMT
Definitely the favorite and will likely end up sweeping, but I can still see it losing to Belfast or Don’t Look Up. Not to DLU, which is too divisive to win in a preferential system.
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Post by finniussnrub on Feb 9, 2022 2:56:11 GMT
I will say it does seem like a strange winner just to sweep, particularly after the similar Nomadland in terms of tone as the voters usually mix it up from year to year. But I don't see the obvious alternate beyond say if Belfast or Licorice Pizza pulls a Spotlight.
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Post by countjohn on Feb 9, 2022 7:59:17 GMT
I don't think the threat of a Cry Macho write in campaign can be overstated. I will say it does seem like a strange winner just to sweep, particularly after the similar Nomadland in terms of tone as the voters usually mix it up from year to year. But I don't see the obvious alternate beyond say if Belfast or Licorice Pizza pulls a Spotlight. Someone get Doctor Strange to move me to this timeline, especially if PTA wins Best Director.
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Post by stabcaesar on Feb 9, 2022 8:31:27 GMT
We were all so sure about Roma winning a couple of years ago that I am more conservative this time. Like The Power of the Dog, Roma was so strong that it got Marina de Tavira in out of nowhere and hit all key categories (except Editing where Green Book of all movies was nominated; that was such a bad look for the Academy), but it still lost to a pedestrian piece of shit that wasn't even nominated for best director in the end because it was too arty or something.
I think it definitely is looking like a steamroller at the moment, but anything could happen.
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Post by Miles Morales on Feb 9, 2022 8:57:43 GMT
We were all so sure about Roma winning a couple of years ago that I am more conservative this time. Like The Power of the Dog, Roma was so strong that it got Marina de Tavira in out of nowhere and hit all key categories (except Editing where Green Book of all movies was nominated; that was such a bad look for the Academy), but it still lost to a pedestrian piece of shit that wasn't even nominated for best director in the end because it was too arty or something. I think it definitely is looking like a steamroller at the moment, but anything could happen. Problem is this year's other nominees all missed something crucial and/or don't have the narrative for a potential win. Dune and Don't Look Up didn't get any acting nominations and missed Director, West Side Story missed Adapted Screenplay and Editing, CODA and Drive My Car are just too small to win and didn't get any important tech nominations, Nightmare Alley missed acting, Director and Screenplay nominations, and Licorice Pizza didn't get anything beyond the main three. The only ones who could challenge it are Belfast and King Richard (oddly enough), and the former likely got screwed by missing an Editing nomination and the latter has nowhere near enough popularity to pull a Green Book. Could Belfast still pull off a Driving Miss Daisy/Green Book? Possibly, but it's not even close to as widely watched and liked as those two so I wouldn't bet on it for now. Power of the Dog, on the other hand, hit literally everything it needed to and has been incredibly strong throughout the season. It's difficult to buy anything else as a challenger when they all have some major setbacks while POTD has none.
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Post by DanQuixote on Feb 9, 2022 9:05:26 GMT
It’s probably happening, unless Belfast wins the triple of BAFTA, PGA and SAG.
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Post by mhynson27 on Feb 9, 2022 9:43:07 GMT
Do you think TPOTD will win PGA and DGA, or do you think Licorice Pizza or Belfast will take one of the two awards?
Cool memo my friend.
Yep.
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Post by michael128 on Feb 9, 2022 16:33:26 GMT
Belfast is winning. It will win supp. Actor, screenplay, and picture.
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Post by hugobolso on Feb 9, 2022 19:43:17 GMT
Ihavent seen Belfast, with a great campaigne could win. Oscar race isnt static. I guess was a Huge mistake to give the Oscar last year to nomadland (in their favor all the nominees were pretty s....t.
But chloe Zao is an amoteur if we compare with Jane Campion. Her movie looks more like a TV documentary movie compare to a John Ford Western.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 9, 2022 20:41:29 GMT
Imagine the outrage if Belfast ends up winning with just screenplay
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Feb 9, 2022 20:52:46 GMT
Obviously the favorite to win and is stronger than Nomadland was at this point. (Though I wound argue that Belfast is stronger competition than anything Nomadland was up against)
If it wins PGA, which I imagine it will, then this one is over. Could be the first BP winner to win 5 or more total Oscars in a while.
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