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Post by mattfincher on Feb 9, 2017 4:31:45 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2017 4:40:37 GMT
Almost all of them  La La Land, Fences are the only ones guaranteed a win-- Moonlight, too, to some lesser extent with Supporting Actor Manchester By the Sea- only real hope left is screenplay as Affleck's chances seem to die down by the day Hidden Figures- Adapted Screenplay is literally only thing it can win Hacksaw Ridge- Sound Editing Arrival- Probably going home empty-handed since the sound design isnt traditionally "showy" enough but could upset in screenplay Lion- Kidman is a no, screenplay is a long shot at best, Dev would need BAFTA and even then he still could lose out to Ali, ASC win is a fluke, Score obviously not LOCKED TO WIN NOTHING: Hell or High Water |
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DingoMatty
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Post by DingoMatty on Feb 10, 2017 4:03:34 GMT
I think Arrival and Lion both have chances in some categories (editing, adapted screenplay for the former; cinematography for the latter), but both of them have considerable potential to win zip.
Hidden Figures almost certainly wins nothing, and Hell or High Water is a very good chance too.
Going through each of them:
Arrival - decent chance of winning Adapted Screenplay (maybe 30-35% chance), some chance in Film Editing, maaaaybe Production Design and/or Sound Editing. Possible chance of winning nothing, could win 1-2. Fences - wins Lead Actor and Supporting Actress, no chance in Picture or Screenplay. Wins 2 Oscars. Hacksaw Ridge - Only chances come in the two editing categories. Could win Film Editing, probably the favourite in Sound Editing. Probably wins 1. Hell or High Water - could win Supporting Actor if Ali loses the BAFTA, and the tiniest chance in Original Screenplay, but probably not either. Big chance of winning zip. Hidden Figures - no chance in any of its categories. Definitely wins nothing. La La Land - wins everything and more. Obviously not walking home empty handed (Certain to win Picture, Director, Actress, Original Score, Original Song - "City of Stars", Sound Mixing; highly probable wins in Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing; very possible wins in Original Screenplay and Costume Design). Wins at least 7-9 Oscars. Lion - a chance of winning in Cinematography. No real chances anywhere else except Score, and would be a MASSIVE upset if it won there. More than decent chance at winning nothing. Manchester by the Sea - only chances are in Lead Actor and Original Screenplay. Very possible it loses both, though best chance is in Original Screenplay. Possible chance of winning nothing, could win 1-2. Moonlight - should win Supporting Actor and probably the favourite for Adapted Screenplay (40%+ chance at winning there). Should win at least 1-2 awards, would be very unlucky to win nothing. Probably winning something. |
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Post by milliedil on Feb 12, 2017 8:11:17 GMT
LION, HELL OR HIGH WATER and HIDDEN FIGURES will win zero awards. HACKSAW RIDGE and ARRIVAL are not likely to win even 1 each, although that would be all they would win. MANCHESTER may also have run its course; zero wins is a possibility; I think one is the best it can reasonably hope for. FENCES and MOONLIGHT will probably take 2 each and LA LA LAND walks off with 8 or 9 wins.
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spiralstatic
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Post by spiralstatic on Feb 15, 2017 23:26:17 GMT
Please let Hacksaw Ridge win nothing. What a dire film.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2017 23:31:03 GMT
If Dev Patel upsets then Moonlight
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Post by KevinPatrick on Feb 16, 2017 16:12:59 GMT
Between Hell or High Water, Lion, and Hidden Figures, I picked Hidden Figures because Bridges and Patel have some chance at winning where I don't see anything from Hidden Figures taking home gold. And to do this, I made a predictions list and I expect La La Land to win 10 categories. Anyone else have it winning that high a number?
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Post by napierslogs on Feb 16, 2017 23:09:29 GMT
I'm going to have to think it though here before I vote.
Most of them could easily go home empty-handed.
La La Land, Fences and Moonlight have guaranteed wins. Even if there's an upset in supporting actor, Moonlight is winning adapted screenplay, or something at the very least - in other words it's not going home empty handed. Somebody from the Academy will break into Ernst & Young's office, check the results before air time and change them if needed just to make sure Moonlight doesn't go home empty-handed.
Looking at the unlocked categories only:
Arrival - prob 4th in Adapted Screenplay; 2nd - 4th in Cinematography; prob 3rd - 4th in Editing (or maybe that's locked for La La Land); 2nd - 4th in production design; 2nd/3rd in Sound Mixing and Editing - I'll say it wins something because it has enough categories for a potential upset
Lion - 2nd/3rd in Supporting Actor; 2nd-3rd in Adapted Screenplay; 2nd-? in cinematography - Fewer categories than Arrival has chances in, but better chances so I'll say it wins something
Hacksaw Ridge - 4th in Actor; 4th/5th in Editing; 2nd/3rd in Sound Mixing and Editing - It really only has one potential win, so I'm going with zero. (Even though I'm already feeling I've gotten this all backwards and Arrival/Lion zilch, and Hacksaw Ridge 1 or 2)
Manchester by the Sea - 2nd in Actor; 1st/2nd in Original Screenplay - I'll say it wins Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water - 2nd/3rd in Supporting Actor; 3rd in Original Screenplay; 5th in Editing - Too few chances and not high enough - zilch
Hidden Figures - 5th in Adapted Screenplay - It definitely wins nothing!
tl;dnr
Zero: Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures
Probably something: Arrival, Lion, Manchester by the Sea
I could easily be wrong on all of those except Hidden Figures
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Post by getclutch on Feb 21, 2017 4:32:42 GMT
Lion.
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tonyz
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Post by tonyz on Feb 21, 2017 5:25:08 GMT
- Arrival probably won't win anything.
- Hell or High Water isn't winning anything.
- Hacksaw Ridge could win Sound Editing.
- Hidden Figures isn't winning anything.
- Lion could maybe, possibly win Cinematography or Supporting Actor... but probably isn't winning either.
La La Land, Fences, and Moonlight will at win at least one. Manchester is the interesting one in all of this. Could win one, two, or nothing. Probably will win two, but Denzel could easily win and it wouldn't be a shock to see La La Land take Screenplay.
I think every movie nominated for BP in the last two years won at least one award. Interesting after two years of spreading the wealth they could end up rewarding less than half - maybe only a third - of the nominations this year.
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Post by unfunnyhamster on Feb 21, 2017 5:32:56 GMT
HF shouldn't be winning this poll but whatever, it still won't win anything and will be the second SAG Ensemble winner to get zero Oscar wins after The Birdcage. HoHW is the ultimate answer, though I'm also predicting Lion to get shut out.
The jury is out on Arrival.
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Post by DeepArcher on Feb 21, 2017 5:34:40 GMT
I say Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Lion, and Hidden Figures.
Call me crazy (I probably deserve it), but I'm thinking Arrival takes Editing and Sound Editing.
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tonyz
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Post by tonyz on Feb 21, 2017 5:49:57 GMT
HF shouldn't be winning this poll but whatever, it still won't win anything and will be the second SAG Ensemble winner to get zero Oscar wins after The Birdcage. HoHW is the ultimate answer, though I'm also predicting Lion to get shut out. The jury is out on Arrival. The Birdcage is, I think, is still the only movie to ever win at SAG and not be nominated for Best Picture. |
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Post by unfunnyhamster on Feb 21, 2017 7:51:02 GMT
Correction: Third. I always forget that Camperican Hustle got 0-10
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2017 8:02:50 GMT
I say Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Lion, and Hidden Figures. Call me crazy (I probably deserve it), but I'm thinking Arrival takes Editing and Sound Editing. I also think it takes Editing as a sole consolation win (possibly along with screenplay). Hacksaw's almost fixed for the Sound Editing win tho. The WWI & II films fare here well. |
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