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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 17, 2022 20:41:49 GMT
Lets talk about the upcoming DGA nominations. Driving Miss Daisy is the only Best Picture winner without a DGA nomination. 8 of the 73 DGA winners failed to win Best Director at the Oscars. 2009 was the last time the DGA nominees and the Best Director nominees matched.
Kenneth Branagh, Jane Campion, Steven Spielberg, and Denis Villeneuve scored best director nominations at the Globes and Critics Choice awards. Maggie Gyllenhaal got nominated at the Globes. Paul Thomas Anderson and Guillermo del Toro received Critics Choice nominations. Ryusuke Hamaguchi won the NSFC trophy. Sian Heder (CODA), Adam McKay (Don't Look Up), Ridley Scott (House of Gucci), and Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard) directed films nominated for best ensemble at the SAG awards. Other strong contenders here are Lin-Manuel Miranda (tick, tick...BOOM!), Joel Coen (The Tragedy of Macbeth) and Aaron Sorkin (Being the Ricardos).
My side question here is: Will your DGA line-up mirror the Oscar Best Director nominees? 2005, 1998, and 1981 were the recent years where the DGA and Oscars matched.
I am going to go predictable: Branaugh, Campion, Spielberg, Villeneuve, and PTA. For the Oscars, I think Hamaguchi sneaks into the Best Director line up.
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Post by stephen on Jan 17, 2022 20:43:49 GMT
I'm really thinking Ridley Scott might actually sneak in here, and as much as I hate to say it, McKay's not out of the realm of possibility.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 17, 2022 21:09:33 GMT
I get predicting Scott but why at the expense of Branaugh? DGA is probably the most middle-brow guild there is and they go batshit for stuff like Belfast. If Scott replaces anybody it’s PTA.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 17, 2022 21:59:59 GMT
1. Spielberg
2. Villeneuve
3. Campion
4. Branagh
5. McKay
PTA has never been particularly lucky with this group, and I’m sensing a snub here. McKay on the other hand has friends everywhere apparently, and he makes sense as the nominee who gets in at DGA and misses at the Oscar (replaced by PTA or Hamaguchi).
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Post by stephen on Jan 17, 2022 22:01:51 GMT
I get predicting Scott but why at the expense of Branaugh? DGA is probably the most middle-brow guild there is and they go batshit for stuff like Belfast. If Scott replaces anybody it’s PTA. Oh, I don't disagree that PTA's vulnerable here. But I'd be a shitty PTA stan if I didn't go to bat for the man. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 17, 2022 22:09:04 GMT
I'm really thinking Ridley Scott might actually sneak in here, and as much as I hate to say it, McKay's not out of the realm of possibility. For which film? TLD or HOG or both?
I have noticed that SAGE typically produces between 2-4 DGA nominees. So this means that at least 2 of these nominees will get a DGA nomination: Belfast, House, King Richard, CODA, and DLU.
Green might be that wildcard which gets the DGA nod, but not the Oscar nod.
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Post by stephen on Jan 17, 2022 22:15:24 GMT
I'm really thinking Ridley Scott might actually sneak in here, and as much as I hate to say it, McKay's not out of the realm of possibility. For which film? TLD or HOG or both?
I have noticed that SAGE typically produces between 2-4 DGA nominees. So this means that at least 2 of these nominees will get a DGA nomination: Belfast, House, King Richard, CODA, and DLU.
Green might be that wildcard which gets the DGA nod, but not the Oscar nod.
. It was a financially successful production with a well-respected ensemble. It's not perhaps his most vibrantly directed film this year, but there is a stylization to it nevertheless that I think will appeal to people, and the fact he had two films out in the same year might work very much in his favor among the branch. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 17, 2022 22:34:14 GMT
I get predicting Scott but why at the expense of Branaugh? DGA is probably the most middle-brow guild there is and they go batshit for stuff like Belfast. If Scott replaces anybody it’s PTA. Oh, I don't disagree that PTA's vulnerable here. But I'd be a shitty PTA stan if I didn't go to bat for the man. But you are also a Ridley Scott Stan (samesies!!) so it isn’t that sacrilegious. |
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Post by quetee on Jan 17, 2022 22:36:49 GMT
I'm really thinking Ridley Scott might actually sneak in here, and as much as I hate to say it, McKay's not out of the realm of possibility. For which film? TLD or HOG or both?
I have noticed that SAGE typically produces between 2-4 DGA nominees. So this means that at least 2 of these nominees will get a DGA nomination: Belfast, House, King Richard, CODA, and DLU.
Green might be that wildcard which gets the DGA nod, but not the Oscar nod.
Hmmm, then I see the following two: Belfast/HOG Belfast/ DLU CODA as spoiler. |
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Post by JangoB on Jan 18, 2022 0:28:51 GMT
I have this sinking feeling that McKay appears here a-la Waititi in 2019 (I've said this before but DLU feels a bit like this year's Jojo Rabbit to me). Instead of PTA if we're talking about the main five (Ken, Jane, Steve, Denis, PTA).
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Jan 18, 2022 0:46:53 GMT
Branagh, Campion, Spielberg, Villeneuve, McKay, the latter replaced by PTA at the Oscars.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 25, 2022 15:29:29 GMT
I’m really hoping for a shakeup here. My NGNG out of left field prediction is Del Toro gets a surprise nom.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 25, 2022 15:46:25 GMT
I’m really hoping for a shakeup here. My NGNG out of left field prediction is Del Toro gets a surprise nom. Let's see what happens today with ASC. If Nightmare Alley gets in, then Del Toro is not so unlikely. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 26, 2022 16:59:17 GMT
Starting to think GdT gets in at PTA’s expense. Kind of a Dragon Tattoo situation.
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Post by DanQuixote on Jan 26, 2022 18:16:21 GMT
Nightmare Alley’s having an amazing guild run at the moment. I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up getting PGA and DGA nominations too.
Sticking with Branagh, Campion, McKay, Villeneuve and Spielberg for now though.
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Post by stephen on Jan 27, 2022 2:46:30 GMT
I think something weird's gonna happen with all these surges. I definitely don't think the assumed top four are safe.
I'm gonna go rogue on this one: Anderson, Campion, McKay, Spielberg, Villeneuve. I want to predict Scott because I really do think Gucci has more muscle than people think it does and it's a banner year and DGA does like him... and then there's Guillermo as well.
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morton
Based
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Post by morton on Jan 27, 2022 14:51:25 GMT
I think something weird's gonna happen with all these surges. I definitely don't think the assumed top four are safe. I'm gonna go rogue on this one: Anderson, Campion, McKay, Spielberg, Villeneuve. I want to predict Scott because I really do think Gucci has more muscle than people think it does and it's a banner year and DGA does like him... and then there's Guillermo as well. This is who I’m predicting as well. Although I could see Coen or del Toro surprise too. |
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Post by DanQuixote on Jan 27, 2022 19:32:45 GMT
If Sorkin shows up here lmao.
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Post by stephen on Jan 27, 2022 19:44:06 GMT
If Sorkin shows up here lmao. DON'T YOU PUT THAT EVIL ON US, RICKY BOBBY. |
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 27, 2022 20:06:10 GMT
This has the potential to be the mess of the year. I feel only Campion and Branagh are locks here.
West Side Story is sinking, PTA is not a DGA favorite, so there is a possibility of two upsets here, one being McKay and the other who knows... Sorkin? Green? Heder?
The industry is being basic as hell this year, so I don't expect surprises like Del Toro or Coen anymore.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 27, 2022 21:19:05 GMT
King Richard quietly having a stellar day. I already thought it was a strong contender to win BP, wonder if it manages to surprise here.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 27, 2022 21:39:02 GMT
King Richard quietly having a stellar day. I already thought it was a strong contender to win BP, wonder if it manages to surprise here. It was already expected to hit the 3 it hit today though. Nothing has changed, i.e. probably not even Top 5. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 27, 2022 21:45:04 GMT
King Richard quietly having a stellar day. I already thought it was a strong contender to win BP, wonder if it manages to surprise here. It was already expected to hit the 3 it hit today though. Nothing has changed, i.e. probably not even Top 5. I wasn’t predicting it like GdT but was starting to feel any range of directors could sneak into that PTA slot. Disappointed GdT didn’t get a nom but plenty happy with PTA. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 28, 2022 3:41:37 GMT
It was already expected to hit the 3 it hit today though. Nothing has changed, i.e. probably not even Top 5. I wasn’t predicting it like GdT but was starting to feel any range of directors could sneak into that PTA slot. Disappointed GdT didn’t get a nom but plenty happy with PTA. Yeah, definitely surprised they ended up just going with the consensus 5 that we've had for months. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 28, 2022 4:01:53 GMT
I wasn’t predicting it like GdT but was starting to feel any range of directors could sneak into that PTA slot. Disappointed GdT didn’t get a nom but plenty happy with PTA. Yeah, definitely surprised they ended up just going with the consensus 5 that we've had for months. No surprise for me. I always pick the Best Picture front-runners for the DGA.
Probability says at least one of the five DGA nominees will not make the cut. 2020 it was Chicago 7. 2019 it was Jojo Rabbit. 2018 it was Green Book and A Star is Born. I am still thinking that Hamaguchi is going to sneak into the top 5, and replace one of them.
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