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Post by JangoB on Nov 28, 2021 19:16:35 GMT
With the season properly kicking off next week, I thought it'd be interesting to see where folks stood with their predictions. Always fun to compare our pre-season perception of favorites to the state of the race when the actual favorites emerge.
I'll try to rank my current predicted nominees by what I think the likelihood of them happening is:
BEST PICTURE 1. Belfast 2. The Power of the Dog 3. Don't Look Up 4. Licorice Pizza 5. Dune 6. West Side Story 7. Being the Ricardos 8. King Richard 9. C'mon C'mon 10. Nightmare Alley
BEST DIRECTOR 1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog 2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza 3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast 4. Adam McKay, Don't Look Up 5. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
BEST ACTOR 1. Will Smith, King Richard 2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog 3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth 4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up 5. Joaquin Phoenix, C'mon C'mon
BEST ACTRESS 1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer 2. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos 3. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers 4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter 5. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 1. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast 2. Jared Leto, House of Gucci 3. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog 4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza 5. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast 2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog 3. Judi Dench, Belfast 4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard 5. Rita Moreno, West Side Story
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 1. Belfast 2. Licorice Pizza 3. Don't Look Up 4. Being the Ricardos 5. C'mon C'mon
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 1. The Power of the Dog 2. The Lost Daughter 3. West Side Story 4. CODA 5. Nightmare Alley
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 1. Dune 2. The Tragedy of Macbeth 3. The Power of the Dog 4. West Side Story 5. Nightmare Alley
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN 1. Dune 2. West Side Story 3. Nightmare Alley 4. The French Dispatch 5. Cyrano
BEST EDITING 1. Don't Look Up 2. Dune 3. Belfast 4. West Side Story 5. Licorice Pizza
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 1. Dune 2. The Power of the Dog 3. Don't Look Up 4. The French Dispatch 5. Spencer
BEST ORIGINAL SONG 1. 'No Time to Die' 2. The one from Encanto 3. The one from Don't Look Up 4. The one from Cyrano 5. The one from CODA
BEST COSTUME DESIGN 1. Cruella 2. Spencer 3. West Side Story 4. Nightmare Alley 5. Dune
BEST SOUND 1. Dune 2. West Side Story 3. No Time to Die 4. A Quiet Place: Part II 5. Don't Look Up
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS 1. Dune 2. The Matrix Resurrections 3. Spider-Man: No Way Home 4. Ghostbusters: Afterlife 5. Free Guy
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING (mess) 1. House of Gucci 2. Being the Ricardos 3. Cruella 4. Spencer 5. Dune
BEST ANIMATED FILM 1. Encanto 2. Luca 3. The Mitchells vs. The Machines 4. Raya and the Last Dragon 5. Flee
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM 1. The Hand of God 2. A Hero 3. The Worst Person in the World 4. Compartment No. 6 5. Flee
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Post by DanQuixote on Nov 28, 2021 20:18:04 GMT
Best Picture 1. Belfast 2. Don’t Look Up 3. The Power of the Dog 4. King Richard 5. Licorice Pizza 6. Nightmare Alley 7. Dune 8. West Side Story 9. Being the Ricardos 10. The Tragedy of Macbeth
Alt. C’mon C’mon
Best Director 1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog 2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza 3. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up 4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast 5. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Alt. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Best Actor 1. Will Smith, King Richard 2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog 3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth 4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up 5. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
Alt. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon
Best Actress 1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos 2. Kristen Stewart, Spencer 3. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza 4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter 5. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Alt. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Supporting Actor 1. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast 2. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog 3. Jared Leto, House of Gucci 4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast 5. Jon Bernthal, King Richard
Alt. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Best Supporting Actress 1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast 2. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard 3. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley 4. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up 5. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Alt. Judi Dench, Belfast
Best Adapted Screenplay 1. The Power of the Dog 2. Nightmare Alley 3. The Lost Daughter 4. The Tragedy of Macbeth 5. CODA
Alt. Passing
Best Original Screenplay 1. Belfast 2. Licorice Pizza 3. Don’t Look Up 4. Being the Ricardos 5. C’mon C’mon
Alt. King Richard
Best Film Editing 1. Don’t Look Up 2. Dune 3. King Richard 4. Belfast 5. The Power of the Dog
Alt. West Side Story
Best Cinematography 1. Dune 2. The Tragedy of Macbeth 3. The Power of the Dog 4. Belfast 5. C’mon C’mon
Alt. Nightmare Alley
Best Production Design 1. Dune 2. Nightmare Alley 3. The Tragedy of Macbeth 4. West Side Story 5. The Power of the Dog
Alt. Cyrano
Best Costume Design 1. Spencer 2. Cruella 3. Dune 4. House of Gucci 5. Nightmare Alley
Alt. Cyrano
Best Makeup and Hairstyling 1. House of Gucci 2. Being the Ricardos 3. Dune 4. The Eyes of Tammy Faye 5. Spencer
Alt. Nightmare Alley
Best Sound 1. Dune 2. West Side Story 3. A Quiet Place: Part II 4. No Time to Die 5. Don’t Look Up
Alt. Nightmare Alley (FYC Memoria!)
Best Visual Effects 1. Dune 2. Don’t Look Up 3. Free Guy 4. The Matrix Resurrections 5. Godzilla vs. King Kong
Alt. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Best Original Score 1. Dune 2. The Power of the Dog 3. Don’t Look Up 4. The French Dispatch 5. Spencer
Alt. Nightmare Alley
Best Original Song 1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die 2. “Colombia, Mi Encanto" from Encanto 3. “Be Alive” from King Richard 4. “Believe” from The Rescue 5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
Alt. “Down to Joy” from Belfast
Best International Film 1. The Hand of God | Italy 2. A Hero | Iran 3. Flee | Denmark 4. The Worst Person in the World | Norway 5. Compartment No.6 | Finland
Alt. Great Freedom | Austria
Best Animated Feature 1. Encanto 2. Luca 3. Flee 4. The Mitchells vs. The Machines 5. Belle
Alt. Raya and the Last Dragon
Best Documentary Feature 1. Flee 2. The Rescue 3. Attica 4. Procession 5. Ascension
Alt. Summer of Soul
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Post by JangoB on Nov 28, 2021 20:25:02 GMT
Best Makeup and Hairstyling 1. House of Gucci 2. Being the Ricardos 3. Dune 4. The Eyes of Tammy Faye 5. Spencer Damn, totally forgot about Ricardos here, added to mine as well!
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Post by stephen on Nov 28, 2021 21:41:54 GMT
Let's give it a go.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 28, 2021 23:16:53 GMT
Picture Being the Ricardos Belfast Don't Look Up Dune King Richard Licorice Pizza Nightmare Alley The Power of the Dog The Tragedy of Macbeth West Side Story
Director Adam McKay Denis Villeneuve Jane Campion Kenneth Branagh Paul Thomas Anderson
Lead Actor Andrew Garfield Benedict Cumberbatch Denzel Washington Leonardo DiCaprio Will Smith
Lead Actress Alana Haim Kristen Stewart Nicole Kidman Olivia Colman Penélope Cruz
Supporting Actor Bradley Cooper Cirian Hinds Jamie Dornan Jared Leto Kodi Smit-McPhee
Supporting Actress Aunjanue Ellis Caitriona Balfe Cate Blanchett Kirsten Dunst Meryl Streep
Original Screenplay Being the Ricardos Belfast C'mon C'mon Don't Look Up Licorice Pizza
Adapted Screenplay Dune The Lost Daughter Nightmare Alley The Power of the Dog The Tragedy of Macbeth
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 28, 2021 23:17:22 GMT
No The Power of the Dog in BP???
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Post by stephen on Nov 28, 2021 23:20:21 GMT
No The Power of the Dog in BP??? Oh, I had written it originally! I guess I somehow overwrote it. I bumped Spencer from the top ten.
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speeders
Based
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Post by speeders on Nov 29, 2021 17:46:24 GMT
BEST PICTURE Don’t Look Up (Netflix) Licorice Pizza (UA) Belfast (Focus) The Power of the Dog (Netflix) King Richard (Warner Bros.)
Being the Ricardos (Amazon) The Tragedy of Macbeth (Apple/A24) Nightmare Alley (Searchlight) Dune (Warner Bros.) West Side Story (20th Century)
Alt. CODA (Apple) The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
BEST DIRECTOR Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza Kenneth Branagh, Belfast Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Alt. Denis Villeneuve, Dune Guillermo Del Toro, Nightmare Alley
BEST ACTOR Will Smith, King Richard Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
HM: Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
BEST ACTRESS Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos Kristen Stewart, Spencer Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Alt. Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Ciarán Hinds, Belfast Kodi Smith-McPhee, The Power of the Dog Jared Leto, House of Gucci Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up
Alt. Jamie Dornan, Belfast Al Pacino, House of Gucci
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Caitriona Balfe, Belfast Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog Ruth Negga, Passing Judi Dench, Belfast
HM: Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Licorice Pizza Don’t Look Up Belfast Being the Ricardos C’mon C’mon
Alt. King Richard
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY The Lost Daughter The Power of the Dog The Tragedy of Macbeth Nightmare Alley CODA
Alt. Passing Dune
INTERNATIONAL FILM The Hand of God (Italy) The Worst Person in the World (Norway) A Hero (Iran) Compartment No. 6 (Finland) Flee (Denmark)
Alt. Drive My Car (Japan)
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Post by DeepArcher on Nov 29, 2021 20:26:33 GMT
Having seen Licorice Pizza, I'd be pretty (pleasantly!) shocked if Haim is nominated. She is spectacular (as is Hoffman, truly, I think he's somehow been undersold in the initial reactions), but it's a largely comedic, low-stakes performance from someone who's never acted before. I don't see her getting in, especially with so many more traditional bait-y performances from Oscar-anointed actresses in play.
I would be expressing the same skepticism about Cooper, but I think the field is so weak that there feels like a solid chance he still gets in. And he is extraordinary, he is an Oscar beloved actor, and it is a slightly more "bait-y" role, I suppose. But it is a small role, folks.
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Post by DeepArcher on Nov 30, 2021 6:12:33 GMT
Anyway.
Best Picture 1. The Power of the Dog 2. Belfast 3. Don't Look Up 4. Being the Ricardos 5. Dune 6. King Richard 7. Licorice Pizza 8. West Side Story 9. Nightmare Alley 10. The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Director 1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog 2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune 3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast 4. Adam McKay, Don't Look Up 5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (Alt: Steven Spielberg, West Side Story)
Best Actor 1. Will Smith, King Richard 2. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth 3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up 4. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog 5. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (Alt: Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick Boom)
Best Actress 1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos 2. Kristen Stewart, Spencer 3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter 4. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth 5. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Alt: Lady Gaga, House of Gucci)
Best Supporting Actor 1. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast 2. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos 3. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog 4. Richard Jenkins, The Humans 5. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (Alt: Jamie Dornan, Belfast)
Best Supporting Actress 1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast 2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog 3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard 4. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter 5. Meryl Streep, Don't Look Up (Alt: Ruth Negga, Passing)
Best Original Screenplay 1. Don't Look Up 2. Being the Ricardos 3. Licorice Pizza 4. Belfast 5. C'mon C'mon (Alt: The French Dispatch)
Best Adapted Screenplay 1. The Power of the Dog 2. The Tragedy of Macbeth 3. The Lost Daughter 4. Nightmare Alley 5. The Last Duel (Alt: CODA)
Best Cinematography 1. The Tragedy of Macbeth 2. Dune 3. The Power of the Dog 4. Licorice Pizza 5. West Side Story (Alt: Belfast)
Best Film Editing 1. Dune 2. Don't Look Up 3. The Power of the Dog 4. Belfast 5. The Last Duel (Alt: Being the Ricardos)
Best Original Score 1. Dune 2. The Power of the Dog 3. Don't Look Up 4. Spencer 5. Nightmare Alley (Alt: C'mon C'mon)
Best Production Design 1. Dune 2. Nightmare Alley 3. West Side Story 4. Belfast 5. The Last Duel (Alt: Licorice Pizza)
Best Costume Design 1. House of Gucci 2. Spencer 3. Being the Ricardos 4. Cyrano 5. Cruella (Alt: The Last Duel)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling 1. Being the Ricardos 2. The Eyes of Tammy Faye 3. Dune 4. Spencer 5. House of Gucci (Alt. Really idk and idc)
Best Sound 1. Dune 2. West Side Story 3. The Last Duel 4. The Matrix Resurrections 5. A Quiet Place Part II (Alt: No Time to Die)
Best Visual Effects 1. Dune 2. The Matrix Resurrections 3. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings 4. Godzilla vs. Kong 5. Don't Look Up (Alt: Spider-Man: No Way Home)
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Post by JangoB on Nov 30, 2021 9:24:29 GMT
Ah, what the heck - added Rita Moreno to the Supporting Actress five.
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Post by stephen on Nov 30, 2021 12:59:31 GMT
After The Lost Daughter dominated the Gothams and West Side Story buzz is through the roof... man, someone that was seen to be safe is totally getting shafted this year. Question is: who?
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Post by JangoB on Nov 30, 2021 13:10:08 GMT
After The Lost Daughter dominated the Gothams and West Side Story buzz is through the roof... man, someone that was seen to be safe is totally getting shafted this year. Question is: who? Am I bananas for thinking that it might be King Richard? Smith is of course safe for a nomination but I'm not really getting the 'OMG it's such a big deal' vibe from it at all, especially with the poor box office and fine-but-not-amazing HBO Max numbers.
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Post by stephen on Nov 30, 2021 13:13:22 GMT
After The Lost Daughter dominated the Gothams and West Side Story buzz is through the roof... man, someone that was seen to be safe is totally getting shafted this year. Question is: who? Am I bananas for thinking that it might be King Richard? Smith is of course safe for a nomination but I'm not really getting the 'OMG it's such a big deal' vibe from it at all, especially with the poor box office and fine-but-not-amazing HBO Max numbers. I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility, as I don't see it being much of a tech player. I feel Smith's really the only safe thing about it. Aunjanue Ellis has the scene but the film really undercuts her more than it should, and while I liked the editing and the screenplay's snappiness, I don't think they're locked in at all. I also feel The Tragedy of Macbeth could miss out as well if A24/Apple don't get off their asses and push it.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 30, 2021 14:00:18 GMT
I'm still not ready to predict a BP nom for The Lost Daughter just yet, but yeah, King Richard isn't as strong/safe as some think.
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Post by stephen on Nov 30, 2021 14:05:43 GMT
I'm still not ready to predict a BP nom for The Lost Daughter just yet, but yeah, King Richard isn't as strong/safe as some think. I'm actually low-key thinking Gyllenhaal might be the stealth spoiler for Adapted Screenplay. We're so confident this far out that Campion's winning that, but Gyllenhaal is gaining beaucoup momentum. They have the same studio behind them, but Netflix doesn't really have the burden a lot of other studios do with prioritization; they can easily get both of them in, but it depends on who voters respond to more, and with Maggie already winning prizes . . . I would not count her out to sneak the win. And with her and Colman likely in, The Lost Daughter getting into Picture isn't that unfathomable. I'd feel more solid about it if there were techs to predict, though, or if Buckley/Johnson gain traction.
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 30, 2021 14:21:18 GMT
King Richard is loved by audiences and they'll let simmer on HBO Max - it doesn't need to be pulling big hit numbers - it's Licorice Pizza that is the question mark (at least in Best Actress - ha! - you (too soon) (somewhat) overpredicting wackadoodles! ) - and I've seen ToM which I thought was great-ish but which a lot of people will find baffling and weird....... Licorice Pizza and ToM are odd duck films - it appears to me - haven't seen LP but - that are either going for big nod numbers or risk underperforming - ToM could get 3 nods or 9 and it wouldn't shock me - but King Richard has won a lot of audience awards and it's not done yet it's going to be majorly awarded without me even batting an eye.......said this before the other day ToM and LP are festival catnip and auteur jizzing in a way that may confict with the Oscars - House of Gucci (maybe) and French Dispatch (way more likely) are I think more deceptive in pop cultural ways and which you wouldn't think.......we'll see though .......
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 30, 2021 14:28:22 GMT
I'm still not ready to predict a BP nom for The Lost Daughter just yet, but yeah, King Richard isn't as strong/safe as some think. For a BP nom? C’mon
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 30, 2021 17:30:49 GMT
let's do it BEST PICTURE 1. The Power of the Dog 2. Belfast 3. Licorice Pizza 4. Dune 5. King Richard 6. Don't Look Up 7. The Tragedy of Macbeth 8. Nightmare Alley 9. Tick Tick Boom 10. CODA BEST DIRECTOR 1. Kenneth Branagh 2. Jane Campion 3. Denis Villeneuve 4. Paul Thomas Anderson 5. Reinaldo Marcus Green BEST ACTOR 1. Will Smith 2. Benedict Cumberbatch 3. Denzel Washington 4. Andrew Garfield 5. Peter Dinklage BEST ACTRESS 1. Kristen Stewart 2. Jessica Chastain 3. Penelope Cruz 4. Nicole Kidman 5. Lady Gaga BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 1. Kodi Smit-McPhee 2. Ciaran Hinds 3. Bradley Cooper 4. Jamie Dornan 5. Jared Leto BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 1. Catriona Balfe 2. Aunjanue Ellis 3. Kirsten Dunst 4. Ruth Negga 5. Ann Dowd BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 1. The Power of the Dog 2. CODA 3. The Lost Daughter 4. The Tragedy of Macbeth 5. Nightmare Alley BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 1. Belfast 2. Licorice Pizza 3. Don't Look Up 4. King Richard 5. C'Mon C'Mon --techs-- BEST CINEMATOGRPAHY 1. Dune 2. The Tragedy of Macbeth 3. The Power of the Dog 4. Nightmare Alley 5. West Side Story
BEST COSTUME DESIGN 1. Cruella 2. Spencer 3. House of Gucci 4. Dune 5. Nightmare Alley
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN 1. Nightmare Alley 2. Dune 3. The French Dispatch 4. West Side Story 5. Cyrano
BEST EDITING 1. Belfast 2. Dune 3. The Power of the Dog 4. Licorice Pizza 5. Don't Look Up
BEST SOUND 1. Dune 2. No Time to Die 3. Nightmare Alley 4. West Side Story 5. Belfast
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS 1. Dune 2. The Matrix Resurrections 3. Eternals 4. Free Guy 5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
BEST ANIMATED PICTURE 1. The Mitchells vs. the Machines 2. Encanto 3. Flee 4. Luca 5. Raya and the Last Dragon
no IFF or Doc predix yet
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 30, 2021 17:33:22 GMT
I always end up being pretty conservative with my picks and I hope I'm wrong about a few of 'em. Would love Moreno or DeBose to make a stand and Kathryn Hunter and Phoenix and lots of others. With the board so stacked this could be a really exciting season!
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Post by JangoB on Nov 30, 2021 19:37:41 GMT
Added West Side Story in Costumes instead of Gucci.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 30, 2021 21:42:05 GMT
I'm still not ready to predict a BP nom for The Lost Daughter just yet, but yeah, King Richard isn't as strong/safe as some think. For a BP nom? C’mon Oh don't worry, I'm still predicting it, but it isn't Top 5.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 30, 2021 21:43:11 GMT
I always end up being pretty conservative with my picks and I hope I'm wrong about a few of 'em. Would love Moreno or DeBose to make a stand and Kathryn Hunter and Phoenix and lots of others. With the board so stacked this could be a really exciting season! I'd say predicting Green, Chastain, Dowd, and not predicting DiCaprio is anything but conservative.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 30, 2021 22:32:16 GMT
I always end up being pretty conservative with my picks and I hope I'm wrong about a few of 'em. Would love Moreno or DeBose to make a stand and Kathryn Hunter and Phoenix and lots of others. With the board so stacked this could be a really exciting season! I'd say predicting Green, Chastain, Dowd, and not predicting DiCaprio is anything but conservative. Whatever you say man.
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Post by JangoB on Dec 2, 2021 8:20:47 GMT
Last batch of updates before the awards kickoff: eating a bit of crow, I moved Nightmare Alley down in BP and Adapted (although I still think it can sneak in both) and replaced Cooper in BA with Phoenix. That's it with the pre-season predictions list - I'll make no further updates. The next predictions list will be based on the developments of the awards season
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