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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 26, 2021 13:21:53 GMT
Didn't see a separate BAFTA thread and people are talking about them in other movies threads so to streamline it (?): With the Golden Globes seriously sidelined this year (or whatever) the BAFTAs this year become even more focused as a precursor or a precursor that can be ignored actually because of who the likely players are.......... So : Best Actress : Colman vs. Stewart, right?
Best Actor : Washington vs. Smith vs. Cumberbatch
Best Supporting Actress : Kathryn Hunter (?) vs. ?.........Caitríona Balfe ...........McDormand - but she's going lead last I heard
Best Supporting Actor: Ciaran Hinds vs. ........?
Obviously Actor is the great race here - and I'm leaving out Cooper atm (he has 3 acting nods, no wins) - Washington's never been nodded (and not "just" for race as I've said before), Smith is also never nodded (and like Washington you could argue a lot of it is his quality of movies), and Cumberbatch is 0 for 1 in film and 1 for 7 in TV - 8 nods) Washington does not have to win BAFTA to win the Oscar this year at all - this is the opposite of 2016 when he needed a win there imo and his upset Affleck chances died by being snubbed here in that year, Smith has yet ANOTHER problem (rough week for you buddy) however probably needs to win BAFTA or at least needs it NOT be Washington  - Cumberbatch would need a win and momentum building reactions going forward and kind of needs ToM to come down a little after NYFF and King Richard to be muted after Telluride - though if King Richard reactions are more muted - if that were to happen - it favors Washington more than Cumberbatch imo Thoughts on BAFTAs this year - Hunter role too small to threaten a win - maybe even snubbed for McDormand or they both get in? Supporting actor threats? McDormand has 5 nods in Film and 2 wins btw..........  |
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Post by stephen on Sept 26, 2021 13:25:06 GMT
BAFTA's going to be real finicky to predict this year with their new system. We thought that Mulligan and Colman were certs to get nominated last year, and we saw that didn't pan out. So who knows. I can easily see a scenario where Kristen Stewart wins, but I can also equally see one where she loses out on a spot entirely.
I definitely think this year is going to be fractured enough in almost every category where no one sweeps, and BAFTA will largely be the reason why.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 26, 2021 14:55:12 GMT
BAFTA's going to be real finicky to predict this year with their new system. We thought that Mulligan and Colman were certs to get nominated last year, and we saw that didn't pan out. So who knows. I can easily see a scenario where Kristen Stewart wins, but I can also equally see one where she loses out on a spot entirely. I definitely think this year is going to be fractured enough in almost every category where no one sweeps, and BAFTA will largely be the reason why. I'm not sure if you heard, but there's already been a change to the new BAFTA system. When they do their initial first round voting to determine the shortlist, the Top 2 vote getters get automatically nominated, and don't have to go through the whole jury system. Pretty much guarantees a Stewart nom. |
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Post by stephen on Sept 26, 2021 15:05:58 GMT
BAFTA's going to be real finicky to predict this year with their new system. We thought that Mulligan and Colman were certs to get nominated last year, and we saw that didn't pan out. So who knows. I can easily see a scenario where Kristen Stewart wins, but I can also equally see one where she loses out on a spot entirely. I definitely think this year is going to be fractured enough in almost every category where no one sweeps, and BAFTA will largely be the reason why. I'm not sure if you heard, but there's already been a change to the new BAFTA system. When they do their initial first round voting to determine the shortlist, the Top 2 vote getters get automatically nominated, and don't have to go through the whole jury system. Pretty much guarantees a Stewart nom. I have heard of this system change, and it doesn't change anything from where I sit. I know you're hard in the tank for Stewart, but she is by no means certain, even with BAFTA. This season has a surfeit of Best Actress contenders and just because Stewart is playing a beloved figure in the UK doesn't mean that she's got the award on lock. Outside politics could also come into it as it pertains to the film's perspective on the royal family. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 26, 2021 15:21:50 GMT
I'm not sure if you heard, but there's already been a change to the new BAFTA system. When they do their initial first round voting to determine the shortlist, the Top 2 vote getters get automatically nominated, and don't have to go through the whole jury system. Pretty much guarantees a Stewart nom. I have heard of this system change, and it doesn't change anything from where I sit. I know you're hard in the tank for Stewart, but she is by no means certain, even with BAFTA. This season has a surfeit of Best Actress contenders and just because Stewart is playing a beloved figure in the UK doesn't mean that she's got the award on lock. Outside politics could also come into it as it pertains to the film's perspective on the royal family. I just can't envision a scenario in which Stewart can't place Top 2 in the initial BAFTA voting, whilst being the frontrunner all season (which she will be, get used to it people). |
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 26, 2021 15:54:21 GMT
stephen - "I know you're hard in the tank for Stewart, but she is by no means certain, even with BAFTA." Not sure I can buy that if Stewart actually wins BAFTA she's losing the Oscar - like that can apply to Smith and Cumby for Actor - they are by no means certain even with a BAFTA - against Washington - but for females I can't imagine something like Chastain (or whomever, even if it's Fran) winning the SAG is then "equal" to having that BAFTA.
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Post by ibbi on Sept 26, 2021 18:15:36 GMT
If anyone beats Kristen Stewart to the BAFTA I'll eat my left hand. Also... Jamie Dornan? |
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 26, 2021 18:27:54 GMT
If anyone beats Kristen Stewart to the BAFTA I'll eat my left hand. Also... Jamie Dornan? I meant Ciaran Hinds you monster! You don't know what I've been through ! Corrected  |
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Post by ibbi on Sept 26, 2021 20:05:32 GMT
If anyone beats Kristen Stewart to the BAFTA I'll eat my left hand. Also... Jamie Dornan? I meant Ciaran Hinds you monster! You don't know what I've been through ! Corrected I wasn't laughing at YOU, I was laughing at the idea of Jamie Dornan being an awards contender after the route his career has taken I don't follow races this early on to have any clue who even is in what, and what is meant to be good. You're going to feel foolish if Dornan is the one to get in now after you've changed it  |
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 26, 2021 20:13:24 GMT
I meant Ciaran Hinds you monster! You don't know what I've been through ! Corrected I wasn't laughing at YOU, I was laughing at the idea of Jamie Dornan being an awards contender after the route his career has taken I don't follow races this early on to have any clue who even is in what, and what is meant to be good. You're going to feel foolish if Dornan is the one to get in now after you've changed it Tbh I feel foolish putting down anything related to Belfast anyway - that trailer, shudder  ....... Hinds is ranked 7th on Gold Derby so that's where I pulled his name out of my ass..........Dornan is 17th in Lead - right after this young Italian fellow "Leonardo DiCaprio"  |
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 26, 2021 23:21:37 GMT
If anyone beats Kristen Stewart to the BAFTA I'll eat my left hand. Also... Jamie Dornan? And I'll eat my right. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 26, 2021 23:22:36 GMT
Honestly, as long as they do the smart thing and push Dornan Supporting, he's definitely more of a threat than Hinds, and could very well win here.
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Post by quetee on Sept 27, 2021 0:16:05 GMT
Honestly, as long as they do the smart thing and push Dornan Supporting, he's definitely more of a threat than Hinds, and could very well win here. Is he the lead? |
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 27, 2021 0:31:45 GMT
Honestly, as long as they do the smart thing and push Dornan Supporting, he's definitely more of a threat than Hinds, and could very well win here. Is he the lead? The kid is the lead. Balfe and Dornan are borderline. |
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Post by quetee on Sept 27, 2021 0:41:54 GMT
The kid is the lead. Balfe and Dornan are borderline. Well, I guess but that's gonna be tough. Let me ask Diane Ladd what she thinks about this. LMAO. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 27, 2021 9:46:35 GMT
If anyone beats Kristen Stewart to the BAFTA I'll eat my left hand. Also... Jamie Dornan? And I'll eat my right. I have nothing to eat if she wins BAFTA and then somehow loses the Oscar which to me is the baffling argument - I'm not eating my hands for Godsakes!- I literally could see her losing BAFTA (she won't though) MORE than I can see her winning BAFTA and losing the Oscar - that just isn't happening that I can see at all. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 27, 2021 14:10:49 GMT
I have nothing to eat if she wins BAFTA and then somehow loses the Oscar which to me is the baffling argument - I'm not eating my hands for Godsakes!- I literally could see her losing BAFTA (she won't though) MORE than I can see her winning BAFTA and losing the Oscar - that just isn't happening that I can see at all. Is anyone actually arguing that?? |
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 27, 2021 14:21:38 GMT
I have nothing to eat if she wins BAFTA and then somehow loses the Oscar which to me is the baffling argument - I'm not eating my hands for Godsakes!- I literally could see her losing BAFTA (she won't though) MORE than I can see her winning BAFTA and losing the Oscar - that just isn't happening that I can see at all. Is anyone actually arguing that?? I asked stephen to clarify in this thread yesterday like a few posts up - do people not remember everything I post - because wtf - kidding He blew me off - whatever - this board is awful - I'm actually leaving the board on Nov 8th ....... He even addressed the sentence to you - but maybe I misunderstood, that's what I was asking.......... see below .......? "I know you're hard in the tank for Stewart, but she is by no means certain, even with BAFTA."Not sure I can buy that if Stewart actually wins BAFTA she's losing the Oscar - like that can apply to Smith and Cumby for Actor - they are by no means certain even with a BAFTA - against Washington - but for females I can't imagine something like Chastain (or whomever, even if it's Fran) winning the SAG is then "equal" to having that BAFTA. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 27, 2021 14:34:18 GMT
Is anyone actually arguing that?? I asked stephen to clarify in this thread yesterday like a few posts up - do people not remember everything I post - because wtf - kidding He blew me off - whatever - this board is awful - I'm actually leaving the board on Nov 8th ....... He even addressed the sentence to you - but maybe I misunderstood, that's what I was asking.......... see below .......? "I know you're hard in the tank for Stewart, but she is by no means certain, even with BAFTA."Not sure I can buy that if Stewart actually wins BAFTA she's losing the Oscar - like that can apply to Smith and Cumby for Actor - they are by no means certain even with a BAFTA - against Washington - but for females I can't imagine something like Chastain (or whomever, even if it's Fran) winning the SAG is then "equal" to having that BAFTA.I think he's just saying that even somewhere like BAFTA (where she supposedly has an advantage), might not give her the win. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 27, 2021 14:59:14 GMT
I asked stephen to clarify in this thread yesterday like a few posts up - do people not remember everything I post - because wtf - kidding He blew me off - whatever - this board is awful - I'm actually leaving the board on Nov 8th ....... He even addressed the sentence to you - but maybe I misunderstood, that's what I was asking.......... see below .......? "I know you're hard in the tank for Stewart, but she is by no means certain, even with BAFTA."Not sure I can buy that if Stewart actually wins BAFTA she's losing the Oscar - like that can apply to Smith and Cumby for Actor - they are by no means certain even with a BAFTA - against Washington - but for females I can't imagine something like Chastain (or whomever, even if it's Fran) winning the SAG is then "equal" to having that BAFTA.I think he's just saying that even somewhere like BAFTA (where she supposedly has an advantage), might not give her the win. Ah, ok makes sense .......like I said - I could picture her losing BAFTA (doubt it, but possible) but definitely not winning BAFTA and losing the Oscar ......... |
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Post by stephen on Jan 12, 2022 16:55:52 GMT
If anyone beats Kristen Stewart to the BAFTA I'll eat my left hand. Also... Jamie Dornan?  And I'll eat my right. Are you looking up hand recipes? |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2022 17:09:48 GMT
Are you looking up hand recipes? SAG is such a weird awards body... I still think Stewart is set for an Oscar nomination. I'd say BAFTA too, but who knows with their new system. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 12, 2022 17:14:44 GMT
Are you looking up hand recipes? SAG is such a weird awards body... I still think Stewart is set for an Oscar nomination. I'd say BAFTA too, but who knows with their new system. Oh, I'm sure she is still very much in it, but the signs are there: the industry/audience did not respond kindly to this movie, and Spencer didn't exactly light the BAFTA longlists on fire. And considering the new BAFTA system, I really think she could get shafted as well because it doesn't seem like the passion is there beyond the critics. But I would've thought her to be a safer pick with SAG over BAFTA anyway. In the span of less than a week, Stewart went from a presumed frontrunner to someone who is incredibly vulnerable right now to actually get shut out. I'm not predicting it, but it is very much a possibility. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2022 17:18:41 GMT
SAG is such a weird awards body... I still think Stewart is set for an Oscar nomination. I'd say BAFTA too, but who knows with their new system. Oh, I'm sure she is still very much in it, but the signs are there: the industry/audience did not respond kindly to this movie, and Spencer didn't exactly light the BAFTA longlists on fire. And considering the new BAFTA system, I really think she could get shafted as well because it doesn't seem like the passion is there beyond the critics. But I would've thought her to be a safer pick with SAG over BAFTA anyway. In the span of less than a week, Stewart went from a presumed frontrunner to someone who is incredibly vulnerable right now to actually get shut out. I'm not predicting it, but it is very much a possibility. I really don't think this is the case, but I understand the argument. |
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Post by franklin on Jan 12, 2022 22:34:06 GMT
Pardon my ignorance, but when the actual "short list" nominations will be fully revealed??
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- Cumberbatch would need a win and momentum building reactions going forward and kind of needs ToM to come down a little after NYFF and King Richard to be muted after Telluride - though if King Richard reactions are more muted - if that were to happen - it favors Washington more than Cumberbatch imo 
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