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Post by SergeantTibbs on Apr 20, 2017 17:57:35 GMT
Please full names and titles, it's too early for shorthand. Feel free to do as many or little categories as you like. Select honourable mentions if you want but make your choice clear.
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Apr 20, 2017 18:01:37 GMT
Voted!
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morton
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Post by morton on Apr 20, 2017 18:40:59 GMT
Best Actor: Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman - I thought that Downsizing was going to be a huge player and that it would be the perfect opportunity to award Damon the Best Actor prize for his longevity, his star power, and the mostly good streak that he had going for him in the past few years. At least I know now instead of waiting until Oscar season almost begins like last year with Bleed for This and still sticking with Joy into the Oscar season the previous year.
I don't know who to go with now. Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour would obviously be the logical choice, but I'm just not sure he's going to be the type to ever win an Oscar. Sure he has more of an upside in who he's playing than Michael Keaton and Mickey Rourke did, since some voters may have thought they were only playing themselves, but I don't think some voters will forget his feud with Spielberg and his bad boy reputation that he use to have years ago. Unfortunately part of winning an Oscar especially in leading means that likeablity is a factor, and unless he sweeps the critics' awards and even then, I think ultimately someone more "likeable" ends up winning. So by that "logic" I'll go with Jackman. I think the film could be a complete mess, but Jackman has a lot going for him if it does turn out to be decent enough. He's well liked in Hollywood, has great reviews already for Logan, and is the kind of star that they love to award.
If Inner City does actually get released this year, if it's as good as Fences or better, I think that Denzel Washington could be a real threat given how close he was last year, and how respected he is. I don't know if it will actually get released this year though.
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, The Post - Like Inner City, I'm not sure this will actually get released in time, but if so I think Streep could be a major threat for number 4. Before she won for The Iron Lady, I know several prognosticators thought that she needed a Best Picture nominee to finally win since she hadn't had one of those since Out of Africa. While she was able to win number 3 in a close race without a Best Picture nominee, whenever she does win number 4, and you know she will someday, I think she will need to be in a Best Picture nominee or perhaps even Best Picture winner. The Post seems like the surest thing she's had to that since they expanded the Best Picture lineup, and everyone else on the radar now like Judi Dench, Kate Winslet, and Frances McDormand have already won too, so they could default to Streep if everyone else is a previous nominee.
Best Supporting Actor: Idris Elba, Molly's Game - I have no clue, but I feel that some voters may feel like he was robbed for Beasts of No Nation since he did win the SAG and was nominated at most of the precursors for it. If Inner City is released this year, I think that Colin Farrell could be a threat because he's been someone that's had his own McConaissance, and the Supporting Actor seems like the right category to award him in. He'll never be the big star that Hollywood tried to make him so Best Actor is probably not happening unless he gets the right role and timing, but he is a great, dependable actor that's managed to turn things around personally and professionally.
Best Supporting Actress: Andrea Riseborough, The Death of Stalin - The Death of Stalin is probably jinxed now, but I think many pundits could be underestimating it. I tried to find an English translation of it, but couldn't so I could be way offbase, but it seems like something that could capture the zeitgeist of what's going on politically in America right now especially if Trump is impeached or resigns.
I'm not sure how large Riseborough's role is or not, but I could see one of the actors or actresses being a threat in supporting. Steve Buscemi has Lean on Pete, so that could end up being his Oscar horse. So I just went with Riseborough since I don't see Julianne Moore or Melissa Leo winning second Oscars this year, and I don't know that mother! will be appealing enough to voters.
I guess it could end up being the perfect time to award Michelle Williams for The Greatest Showman, but I think she might end up being upstaged if the film, and that's if the film isn't a complete mess.
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Post by harlequinade on Apr 20, 2017 19:33:58 GMT
Hugh Jackman for The Greatest Showman. If he wins for it I'll (almost) forgive them for not nominating (and awarding) him for Logan. It seems like the kind of movie Academy loves, apparently the footage on CinemaCon was amazing and everyone loves Hugh and they robbed him few times already out of nomination (but I think he was close to win for Les Mis)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2017 19:36:43 GMT
I don't see a poll
ACTOR: Oldman, Darkest Hour alt: Denzel, Inner City if seen on time Cranston and Jackman will be strong contenders, too
ACTRESS: Streep, The Post Streep has it as long as the Post is 2017 alt: Dench, Victoria and Abdul Winslet will be in contention if film is not a Woody Allen dud
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name Kind of a weak year-- Mendelsohn is mostly a coattail with few scenes, Buscemi only has few scenes too despite being a true villain, will Inner City even be 2017, will Molly's Game be DOA, Phoenix will face backlash for Magdalene, Harrellson role is small in 3 Billboards and could split votes with showier Rockwell alt: maybe Hoffman if Meyerowitz Stories is quality and Netflix pushes film
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Moore, Wonderstruck I really don't see Moore winning again so easily (same for Leo), but I feel like on paper she's one of the safest for nom, and has a nice emotional ending Pfeiffer is possibility but too much of mother! is unknown, and movie could be off-putting KST never won and could be overdue, but I dont think there's enough meat on the supporting wife role and she could be upstaged by Oldman
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Apr 20, 2017 19:56:06 GMT
Hugh Jackman for The Greatest Showman seems it has everything going for him- musical, deals with showbusiness, struggled with skin cancer, is very well-liked in the industry, and has great good will from the critical and commercial success of Logan.
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Apr 20, 2017 20:01:10 GMT
Best Actor: Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman -  I thought that Downsizing was going to be a huge player and that it would be the perfect opportunity to award Damon the Best Actor prize for his longevity, his star power, and the mostly good streak that he had going for him in the past few years. At least I know now instead of waiting until Oscar season almost begins like last year with Bleed for This and still sticking with Joy into the Oscar season the previous year. I don't know who to go with now. Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour would obviously be the logical choice, but I'm just not sure he's going to be the type to ever win an Oscar. Sure he has more of an upside in who he's playing than Michael Keaton and Mickey Rourke did, since some voters may have thought they were only playing themselves, but I don't think some voters will forget his feud with Spielberg and his bad boy reputation that he use to have years ago. Unfortunately part of winning an Oscar especially in leading means that likeablity is a factor, and unless he sweeps the critics' awards and even then, I think ultimately someone more "likeable" ends up winning. So by that "logic" I'll go with Jackman. I think the film could be a complete mess, but Jackman has a lot going for him if it does turn out to be decent enough. He's well liked in Hollywood, has great reviews already for Logan, and is the kind of star that they love to award. If Inner City does actually get released this year, if it's as good as Fences or better, I think that Denzel Washington could be a real threat given how close he was last year, and how respected he is. I don't know if it will actually get released this year though. Best Actress: Meryl Streep, The Post - Like Inner City, I'm not sure this will actually get released in time, but if so I think Streep could be a major threat for number 4. Before she won for The Iron Lady, I know several prognosticators thought that she needed a Best Picture nominee to finally win since she hadn't had one of those since Out of Africa. While she was able to win number 3 in a close race without a Best Picture nominee, whenever she does win number 4, and you know she will someday, I think she will need to be in a Best Picture nominee or perhaps even Best Picture winner. The Post seems like the surest thing she's had to that since they expanded the Best Picture lineup, and everyone else on the radar now like Judi Dench, Kate Winslet, and Frances McDormand have already won too, so they could default to Streep if everyone else is a previous nominee. Best Supporting Actor: Idris Elba, Molly's Game - I have no clue, but I feel that some voters may feel like he was robbed for Beasts of No Nation since he did win the SAG and was nominated at most of the precursors for it. If Inner City is released this year, I think that Colin Farrell could be a threat because he's been someone that's had his own McConaissance, and the Supporting Actor seems like the right category to award him in. He'll never be the big star that Hollywood tried to make him so Best Actor is probably not happening unless he gets the right role and timing, but he is a great, dependable actor that's managed to turn things around personally and professionally. Best Supporting Actress: Andrea Riseborough, The Death of Stalin - The Death of Stalin is probably jinxed now, but I think many pundits could be underestimating it. I tried to find an English translation of it, but couldn't so I could be way offbase, but it seems like something that could capture the zeitgeist of what's going on politically in America right now especially if Trump is impeached or resigns. I'm not sure how large Riseborough's role is or not, but I could see one of the actors or actresses being a threat in supporting. Steve Buscemi has Lean on Pete, so that could end up being his Oscar horse. So I just went with Riseborough since I don't see Julianne Moore or Melissa Leo winning second Oscars this year, and I don't know that mother! will be appealing enough to voters. I guess it could end up being the perfect time to award Michelle Williams for The Greatest Showman, but I think she might end up being upstaged if the film, and that's if the film isn't a complete mess. Good analysis, although if you have Molly's Game on your radar, Chastain should be there too, and she hasn't won before.
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Apr 20, 2017 20:03:35 GMT
I don't see a poll ACTOR: Oldman, Darkest Hour alt: Denzel, Inner City if seen on time Cranston and Jackman will be strong contenders, too ACTRESS: Streep, The Post Streep has it as long as the Post is 2017 alt: Dench, Victoria and Abdul Winslet will be in contention if film is not a Woody Allen dud SUPPORTING ACTOR: Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name Kind of a weak year-- Mendelsohn is mostly a coattail with few scenes, Buscemi only has few scenes too despite being a true villain, will Inner City even be 2017, will Molly's Game be DOA, Phoenix will face backlash for Magdalene, Harrellson role is small in 3 Billboards and could split votes with showier Rockwell alt: maybe Hoffman if Meyerowitz Stories is quality and Netflix pushes film SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Moore, Wonderstruck I really don't see Moore winning again so easily (same for Leo), but I feel like on paper she's one of the safest for nom, and has a nice emotional ending Pfeiffer is possibility but too much of mother! is unknown, and movie could be off-putting KST never won and could be overdue, but I dont think there's enough meat on the supporting wife role and she could be upstaged by Oldman What makes you so confident in Streep? I think there are many contenders there.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2017 20:26:08 GMT
I don't see a poll ACTOR: Oldman, Darkest Hour alt: Denzel, Inner City if seen on time Cranston and Jackman will be strong contenders, too ACTRESS: Streep, The Post Streep has it as long as the Post is 2017 alt: Dench, Victoria and Abdul Winslet will be in contention if film is not a Woody Allen dud SUPPORTING ACTOR: Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name Kind of a weak year-- Mendelsohn is mostly a coattail with few scenes, Buscemi only has few scenes too despite being a true villain, will Inner City even be 2017, will Molly's Game be DOA, Phoenix will face backlash for Magdalene, Harrellson role is small in 3 Billboards and could split votes with showier Rockwell alt: maybe Hoffman if Meyerowitz Stories is quality and Netflix pushes film SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Moore, Wonderstruck I really don't see Moore winning again so easily (same for Leo), but I feel like on paper she's one of the safest for nom, and has a nice emotional ending Pfeiffer is possibility but too much of mother! is unknown, and movie could be off-putting KST never won and could be overdue, but I dont think there's enough meat on the supporting wife role and she could be upstaged by Oldman What makes you so confident in Streep? I think there are many contenders there. I've come to NEVER doubt Streep The script is fine (the bland bait Spielberg always cranks out), but Streep has a deep role with lots of dialogue, and given how beloved she is and how timely and political the material is, she just needs to nail any of her Oscar courtroom scenes and she could coast to a lazy win Dench is a possibility, but movie does feel been there done that, and bit pedestrian Winslet was close in 2015 and she'll inevitably win again, but the Woody Allen is still undated and doesn't have much buzz yet Chastain has a showy role (albeit one we constantly see from her), but STX is untested and nearly bankrupt, it's Sorkin's first film, he just fired his editor, could flop Mara will face big backlash for Mary Magdalene Foy's film will be too lightweight Lawrence is always a possibility, but mother! might be too weird McDormand will probably win Comedy Globe, but how will the film itself be received since it's an odd film to embrace
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Apr 20, 2017 20:46:19 GMT
What makes you so confident in Streep? I think there are many contenders there. I've come to NEVER doubt Streep The script is fine (the bland bait Spielberg always cranks out), but Streep has a deep role with lots of dialogue, and given how beloved she is and how timely and political the material is, she just needs to nail any of her Oscar courtroom scenes and she could coast to a lazy win Dench is a possibility, but movie does feel been there done that, and bit pedestrian Winslet was close in 2015 and she'll inevitably win again, but the Woody Allen is still undated and doesn't have much buzz yet Chastain has a showy role (albeit one we constantly see from her), but STX is untested and nearly bankrupt, it's Sorkin's first film, he just fired his editor, could flop Mara will face big backlash for Mary Magdalene Foy's film will be too lightweight Lawrence is always a possibility, but mother! might be too weird McDormand will probably win Comedy Globe, but how will the film itself be received since it's an odd film to embrace Never doubt her for a nomination, sure. A 4th win so soon makes me pause though, at least at this state of the race. What about Bening? Have there been new developments on her film?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2017 2:55:18 GMT
I've come to NEVER doubt Streep The script is fine (the bland bait Spielberg always cranks out), but Streep has a deep role with lots of dialogue, and given how beloved she is and how timely and political the material is, she just needs to nail any of her Oscar courtroom scenes and she could coast to a lazy win Dench is a possibility, but movie does feel been there done that, and bit pedestrian Winslet was close in 2015 and she'll inevitably win again, but the Woody Allen is still undated and doesn't have much buzz yet Chastain has a showy role (albeit one we constantly see from her), but STX is untested and nearly bankrupt, it's Sorkin's first film, he just fired his editor, could flop Mara will face big backlash for Mary Magdalene Foy's film will be too lightweight Lawrence is always a possibility, but mother! might be too weird McDormand will probably win Comedy Globe, but how will the film itself be received since it's an odd film to embrace Never doubt her for a nomination, sure. A 4th win so soon makes me pause though, at least at this state of the race. What about Bening? Have there been new developments on her film? Bening is a possibility, but the movie still lacks distribution, and the cast and crew dont inspire best confidence
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Schiggy
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Post by Schiggy on Apr 21, 2017 4:55:35 GMT
All Judi Dench needs to do is be seen coughing in public and maybe have a child step on her foot and they'll give her to Oscar for fear she'll die soon without a Lead award. And her role is pure Oscar bait.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2017 7:13:28 GMT
Gunna predict these only till I get a reason not to.
Oldman, The Darkest Hour Dench, Victoria And Abdul Harrelson, The Glass Castle Pfeiffer, mother!
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Post by TheAlwaysClassy on Apr 21, 2017 13:33:37 GMT
Actor- Oldman, Darkest Hour Actress- Dench, Victoria and Abel Supporting Actor- Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name Supporting Actress- Blige, Mudbound
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morton
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Post by morton on Apr 21, 2017 20:39:44 GMT
Wow! If Inner City does manage to get released this year, I'm going to have to predict Denzel. He was probably very close this year, and I think winning SAG made him thirsty because I don't think he thought he had a chance before that. He seems thirsty now. Plus, as I wrote before about Streep winning her fourth, Washington likely needs to be in a Best Picture nominee/winner in order to win his third, and Inner City definitely feels like a Best Picture nominee.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2017 2:12:56 GMT
Wow! If Inner City does manage to get released this year, I'm going to have to predict Denzel. He was probably very close this year, and I think winning SAG made him thirsty because I don't think he thought he had a chance before that. He seems thirsty now. Plus, as I wrote before about Streep winning her fourth, Washington likely needs to be in a Best Picture nominee/winner in order to win his third, and Inner City definitely feels like a Best Picture nominee. his front teeth tho lol
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Post by SergeantTibbs on Apr 24, 2017 21:08:37 GMT
Bumpo
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Post by Sharbs on Apr 24, 2017 23:59:43 GMT
Lead Actor: Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman Lead Actress: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (this early, why not?) Supporting Actor: Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name Supporting Actress: Michelle Pfeifer, Mother!
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Post by thomasjerome on Apr 25, 2017 12:20:17 GMT
Actor - Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour). Denzel and Hugh are strong possibilities as well. It seems like a strong category on paper but hopefully Donald Sutherland will manage to sneak in.
Actress - Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul). Not seeing Streep getting her fourth this soon.
Supporting Actor - Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me Be Your Name). I wonder if Buscemi, Farrell and Rockwell can all finally get their overdue first nominations or not.
Supporting Actress - Julianne Moore (Wonderstruck)
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Post by napierslogs on Apr 26, 2017 0:48:22 GMT
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman - Because I think he does and will have everything going for him Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game - Because I'm predicting Molly's Game for BP Armie Hammer/Michael Stuhlbarg - Whoever gets the push for Call Me By Your Name Somebody who isn't famous yet - someone will have a Janelle Monae type year, so that would be my pick
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2017 18:12:16 GMT
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role WINNERPhantom Thread: Daniel Day Lewis NOMINEESBreathe: Andrew Garfield Call Me By Your Name: Timothée Chalamet Darkest Hour: Gary Oldman The Greatest Showman: Hugh Jackman Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role WINNER Kings: Halle BerryNOMINEES Breathe: Claire Foy Molly's Game: Jessica Chastain Pentagon Papers: Meryl Streep Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: Frances McDormandBest Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role WINNER Call Me By Your Name: Michael StuhlbergNOMINEES Call Me By Your Name: Armie Hammer Darkest Hour: Ben MendelsohnThe Glass Castle: Woody Harrelson Mudbound: Jason MitchellBest Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role WINNER Mudbound: Mary J. Blige NOMINEES The Beguiled: Kirsten Dunst The Greatest Showman: Michelle Williams Mother!: Michelle Pfeiffer Wonderstruck: Julianne Moore
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