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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Aug 27, 2021 0:56:32 GMT
Trump-endorsed Youngkin on the right, establishment VA dem McAuliffe on the left. Election is in November. Polls have them notoriously close with McAuliffe having a slight lead. This is the race that pundits will point to as evidence of VA still being purple, especially if Youngkin wins which is not impossible if he overperforms in the rural areas and chips away enough of McAuliffe's lead in liberal Northern VA w/ economy-minded independents and if enough libs just stay home which is always possible. ok, this is the part where I brag about helping conduct this poll. Yes that's right, my company was conducting this political poll under contract from VCU, so I talked with a lot of grumpy VA Republicans on the phone. highlights (McAuliffe with only 3-point lead):full breakdown for geeks: (Google drive) So of the 800+ respondents that contributed to the poll, I probably talked to around 20 and it was about 50/50 if I got a dem or a GOP. The one thing that stuck out to me was the people who disapproved of Biden strongly disapproved (and that included a couple independents) whereas dems were just as likely to say "somewhat disapprove" or "somewhat approve". His approval in the poll overall is over 50% but strongly disapprove heavily outweighs strongly approve. The other thing that stuck out to me is how wishy-washy my dem or left-leaning respondents were when it came to voting. While the GOP voters (esp. older folks in their 70s and 80s) said they would "definitely" vote this November (and that they would definitely vote GOP down the ticket), I didn't see near that level of commitment from the dem respondents, esp. the black respondents who are probably justifiably apathetic towards politics. Most of the black respondents I spoke to were unwilling to commit to voting for McAuliffe. The bane of dem candidates. Too left for the independents scared of inflation, too right/centrist for progressives and progressive POC voters who are tired of hearing promises... Good news for dems: most of the "down-ballot" races for attorney general, lieutenant gov., etc. heavily favor the blue candidates (although there are a lot of undecideds there). I think I'm the only Virginian here... anyone else biting their nails over this race or is it just me??
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Post by Deleted on Aug 27, 2021 2:31:05 GMT
Hey neighbor! I really don't think you have reason to worry - I can't imagine Youngkin winning...
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 16, 2021 0:24:10 GMT
we just wrapped another poll. Will be very interesting to see the numbers, esp. the Biden approval numbers post-Afghanistan. Didn't get as many people on the phone for this project so don't have as good a handle on it. I talked with a lot of Republicans in the first half and a lot of dems in the second. Not as many Black respondents this time around. Results forthcoming
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2021 13:17:41 GMT
we just wrapped another poll. Will be very interesting to see the numbers, esp. the Biden approval numbers post-Afghanistan. Didn't get as many people on the phone for this project so don't have as good a handle on it. I talked with a lot of Republicans in the first half and a lot of dems in the second. Not as many Black respondents this time around. Results forthcoming I think the CA recall results bode really well for McAuliffe! Also that nightmare of a law in Texas...
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Post by hugobolso on Sept 17, 2021 18:36:04 GMT
I guess that win the best, is the governor is good, his Dem dauphin should success without any trouble, if it's bad or corrupt, well maybe new blood from another party is what the state needs.-
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 21, 2021 17:37:43 GMT
Results for the September VCU poll [featured on FiveThirtyEight where they have a B/C rating - hey not everyone can be Trafalgar] interesting highlights: -- McAuliffe's lead widens to 9% up from 3% from August. Other VA polls have the race closer in the 3-5 point range so it feels like these results are overly favoring McAuliffe. -- however, an interesting corollary is that the down-ballot races for lieutenant gov. and attorney general tightened considerably, with one of the races currently in the margin of error. You'd think if the sample favored dems and thus gave McCauliffe on overstated lead, the same would occur with the down-ballot races... but they didn't. -- Joe Biden's approval came down 5 points from 51% to 46% and his disapproval numbers at 49% are now higher than his approvals (these numbers btw are practically a mirror image of Biden's approval rating average). All this keep in mind from a sample that says they plan to vote for the dem candidate for gov by a sizeable 9%. That's a good chunk of dems who don't approve of Biden's job performance.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2021 20:35:00 GMT
The Cook Political Report has changed its rating of this race from "Lean Democratic" to "Toss-Up"... I just can't buy the reasoning behind it.
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hilderic
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Post by hilderic on Oct 17, 2021 21:30:42 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2021 23:10:57 GMT
This group has a right-leaning bias, so I wouldn't necessarily take this poll at face value.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 19, 2021 20:45:49 GMT
yeah the Trafalgar poll is somewhat worrying but the previous day Fox News released two polls that had McAuliffe up +5 and +11. I think it'll be too close for comfort. Maybe a 1-2 point race. We're wrapping up our poll in a couple days and those results will be up in a week-ish. Really not sure what to expect, but I have a sinking feeling it'll be close.
The problem is that Republicans are motivated and angry, especially with Biden in office. And some of that anti-Biden sentiment might spread to VA independents. Personally throughout this series of polls I haven't talked to many independents who said they planned on voting for McAuliffe...
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 27, 2021 18:03:05 GMT
alright, the results are in for the final VCU poll. Contains some scary numbers for dems. -- Horserace poll still favors dems but only slightly. Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General races have all tightened. McAuliffe's lead is at 3 points, well within the margin of error. And pulling back, the 538 average puts puts him at a tiny 1.5-point advantage. The polls are saying it's a tossup. -- As I suspected, independents favor Youngkin to McAuliffe (37% to 31%), and 74% of independents were likely voters. -- Dems were less enthusiastic about voting than Republicans by a margin of 13 points (87% to 74%), and Republicans support Youngkin more than Dems support McAuliffe (82% to 76%). -- Biggest issue on voters' minds is the economy, and voters trust Youngkin more on that issue by 8 points. Now some good news is that the next two biggest issues were public schools and Covid-19 and McAuliffe ranked higher on those. -- Biden's approval has plummeted 10 points since the September poll and his total disapproval now exceeds the 538 national average at a whopping 54% in Virginia. Ouch. Interesting to note that those who said they "strongly disapproved" of Biden has remained almost entirely consistent over the last three months (so presumably Republicans or really conservative independents). What's been ticking up is the "somewhat disapprove" crowd which isn't necessarily a death knell. There are a lot of reasons why libs might disapprove of Biden but still be motivated to turn out for democratic candidates in local elections. -- 65% of respondents said things in this country [with a Democratic trifecta] are headed "off on the wrong track". The mood is grim. And with Youngkin positioning himself as a family-oriented sweater-vest wearing business dad who wants to cut the grocery tax and get things back to normal, it probably helps that the mood is grim. McAuliffe's messaging has been understandably alarmist but I don't know if that's going to work in this climate with everyone already so on edge. Of course, on the other hand a lot of dems might be saying that because Republicans are off their fuckin meds. -- Age group least likely to vote was 18-34 while likeliest was old farts (45-64 & 65 and over). And it doesn't matter that older respondents are heavily overrepresented in the poll (591 over 45s to only 130 under 34s) because the disparity between self-described dems and Republicans is just 7 people. It's evenly split down party lines. If young people don't show up, McAuliffe is finished.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 27, 2021 18:04:52 GMT
I'm calling it for Youngkin as someone who lives in VA and has been talking with scores of voters on the phone. With Trump not on the ballot and with dems in office independents are going to spring back towards GOP. Youngkin's already got the angry Trump voters in his pocket who are motivated to vote for anything anti-Democrat (one guy told me on the phone that the biggest issue was to "get rid of these dumbass Democrats and if you're a dumbass Democrat you should get out too" -- yeah Youngkin has those guys in the bag), but what's going to tip him over the edge are fiscal conservatives worried about the economy, inflation, and rising taxes. Haven't been following local elections but Republicans are sure to make gains in the House of Delegates where dems currently have a slim 55-45 majority, and they could possibly win the three big races at the top of ticket too. Don't know if it'll be a full-on red wave, but I think that's a likelier scenario than VA remaining staunchly blue up and down the ticket. @tyler please tell me "I told you so" if all this turns out to be wrong. I'm freaking out up here.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2021 20:06:13 GMT
Whoa... he must have been from Gloucester. Don't you think Obama coming to VA and stumping for McAuliffe carries a lot of weight?
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 29, 2021 17:15:21 GMT
Don't you think Obama coming to VA and stumping for McAuliffe carries a lot of weight? Yes but will it be enough to counterbalance all the factors weighing against McAuliffe? I hope so but I'm choosing to expect the worst. The 538 average now has McAuliffe only up by 0.1 points after a couple polls showing Youngkin up by as much as 8 points. Also there's been a couple "October surprises" in Youngkin's favor. The big one hinges on a supposed c overup of a male-on-female sexual assault in a highschool girls' bathroom, and also someone on McAuliffe's team embarrassingly accidentally responded to a Fox News request for comment saying "Can we try to kill this?" This should be Terry's to lose. But I feel like it's only been bad news.
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Post by jakesully on Oct 30, 2021 5:43:42 GMT
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 30, 2021 19:49:29 GMT
Now Youngkin is up in the polling average for the first time since 538 started keeping track of this race in August. McAuliffe's team is clearly getting desperate with all these embarrassing gaffes lately. Not a confident look.
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Post by Joaquim on Oct 30, 2021 20:10:11 GMT
Dems are pushing diversity so hard no one stopped to say “maybe we shouldn’t bring a black guy for our white supremacist false flag photo shoot”
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Post by Joaquim on Oct 30, 2021 20:13:05 GMT
“I thought y’all said The Supremes”
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2021 20:09:44 GMT
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 3, 2021 0:02:28 GMT
a third of the results are in. Youngkin is up 9 points
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 3, 2021 0:05:42 GMT
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 3, 2021 0:15:44 GMT
this is where you can watch the house of delegates races. GOP is poised to retake majority btw and is leading in 14 Democratic-held seats when they only need to flip 6. Dems institued so many important changes. Eliminating voter ID laws, banning death penalty, legalizing marijuana, and a lot more. They've been super busy over the past year and now all of that could be in jeopardy. haven't checked in on the lieutenant governor or attorney general races but I'm assuming GOP is ahead there too. Might be a full-on red wave going on in VA tonight.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 3, 2021 0:30:31 GMT
just for a snapshot of where we're at, my county of Stafford voted for Trump by 9 points in 2016 and Biden by 3 in 2020. We're purple-ish but generally skew red, with Trump pushing us into blue territory. But with 73% of the votes counted Youngkin is currently leading Stafford by 19 points. He's going to carry the county by double digits, and my guess without diving deep is that that's happening in a lot of places tonight.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 3, 2021 0:45:29 GMT
so yeah a few people are already calling it. Youngkin is exceeding all his benchmarks and is looking to win by 2-5 points and the GOP is going to retake majority in the house of delegates and they're going to win downballot races for attorney general and lieutenant governor by sizable margins. A full-on red wave. Dems are fucked. that's all for tonight.
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 3, 2021 7:26:58 GMT
We live in a surreal world now where people lose state and national elections - refuse to admit they've lost - won't concede, promise to "fight on" (Stacy Abrams, Trump worst of all obviously) and then weirdly do a dance about it. This looks like he won .......@ 20 seconds 2022 is going to be an f'n horror show......
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