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Post by quetee on Jun 5, 2021 4:57:15 GMT
Time to get this party started. If you think something else is going to win then please post it.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jun 5, 2021 6:27:12 GMT
Sticking with the Wes.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jun 5, 2021 10:20:29 GMT
Not a f...ng clue!!!
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Post by Martin Stett on Jun 5, 2021 10:55:12 GMT
I'm going with Gucci. Haven't heard much on Campion's The Power of the Dog, but it sounds juicy. I don't think there's really a Netflix stigma anymore, I think that they just had an unlucky year when they should have crushed the competition.
And we shouldn't be discounting The Whale either. I've got a feeling that it will do well.
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franklin
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Post by franklin on Jun 5, 2021 11:12:13 GMT
Where's The Power of The Dog??
Anyway it's The French Dispatch, with Don't Look Up as the possible runner-up.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jun 5, 2021 12:03:01 GMT
Sticking with "Don't Look Up" because of the environmental message, it's big and star studded and third time might be the charm for McKay.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jun 5, 2021 12:34:22 GMT
I'm going with Gucci. Haven't heard much on Campion's The Power of the Dog, but it sounds juicy. I don't think there's really a Netflix stigma anymore, I think that they just had an unlucky year when they should have crushed the competition. And we shouldn't be discounting The Whale either. I've got a feeling that it will do well. The problem The Whale will have, is that it most likely won't even be in A24's Top 2-3 priorities.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jun 5, 2021 12:35:29 GMT
Where's The Power of The Dog?? Anyway it's The French Dispatch, with Don't Look Up as the possible runner-up. Well glad that's sorted then. Pack it up boys, we can go home!
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morton
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Post by morton on Jun 5, 2021 17:29:42 GMT
Same. I guess Cannes will shine a light on The French Dispatch and possibly West Side Story if that’s the blockbuster that is supposed to premiere there. Plus The Tragedy of a Macbeth just screened although I haven’t seen any info yet, and according to the same person Don’t Look Up is testing soon, except he didn’t reveal any other info to me about exactly when yet. I’ll stick with House of Gucci now because I think whatever does win will be big in reaction to this past year where the general public was barely aware of most of the nominated films. Plus I think there’s something interesting about a MGM film winning BP after being bought by a streaming service like Amazon. Could be another MGM property but HoG seems like it will be the biggest earner out of their potential Oscar lineup Don’t Look Up has the environmental message and big cast, but Netflix. I don’t know if there’s a stigma as much as it is that Netflix is great at getting tons of nominations, but they still can’t seal the deal even at the Emmys in Best Drama or Comedy even when they have buzzworthy titles. Dune might be big, but I’m not sure they’ll award part one since I assume if it is big the sequel would be immediately greenlighted, since they waited until the final LOTR to award the whole trilogy. Maybe The French Dispatch as The Grand Budapest Hotel did well commercially, but I’m going to wait to see until after Cannes. I think it will be well received, but I don’t know if it will be the film that finally goes all the way for Anderson. Ruling out Canterbury Glass because critics are definitely going to have their knives out for it now, and by critics I mean mostly film Twitter. They don’t really hold power, but even with Bale and Robbie, not sure this is going to make enough to overcome any potential DOR involvement.
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Post by countjohn on Jun 5, 2021 17:48:25 GMT
Don't Look Up and Nightmare Alley are the ones that are easiest to picture for me, obviously just guessing.
They're not giving Eastwood a third especially after how politicized he's become over the last 15 years, Houe of Gucci and Blonde feel more like ones that will just get acting awards and techs, West Side Story feels like a bomb, Last Duel feels like one that will get a lot of nods but not win, I just think Wes Anderson is too weird for the Academy. They might throw him a bone every now and then like they did with Grand Budapest if he does something that's both really good and comparatively mainstream, but I don't think they'll ever give him BP/BD. Same type deal with PTA.
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Post by stephen on Jun 5, 2021 17:52:04 GMT
Sticking with Dr. George.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jun 5, 2021 18:33:46 GMT
the lesbian nun movie. I don't care, I'm sticking with it until fall at least
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jun 5, 2021 21:35:05 GMT
Going with Don’t Look Up for now
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Post by quetee on Jun 6, 2021 19:10:01 GMT
I have no clue right now but The French Dispatch seems too quirky. Granted I did vote for HOG.
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Post by quetee on Jun 6, 2021 19:10:59 GMT
Don't Look Up and Nightmare Alley are the ones that are easiest to picture for me, obviously just guessing. They're not giving Eastwood a third especially after how politicized he's become over the last 15 years, Houe of Gucci and Blonde feel more like ones that will just get acting awards and techs, West Side Story feels like a bomb, Last Duel feels like one that will get a lot of nods but not win, I just think Wes Anderson is too weird for the Academy. They might throw him a bone every now and then like they did with Grand Budapest if he does something that's both really good and comparatively mainstream, but I don't think they'll ever give him BP/BD. Same type deal with PTA. Did you see the original Nightmare Alley? It has a good story.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jun 6, 2021 20:07:29 GMT
Don't Look Up and Nightmare Alley are the ones that are easiest to picture for me, obviously just guessing. They're not giving Eastwood a third especially after how politicized he's become over the last 15 years, Houe of Gucci and Blonde feel more like ones that will just get acting awards and techs, West Side Story feels like a bomb, Last Duel feels like one that will get a lot of nods but not win, I just think Wes Anderson is too weird for the Academy. They might throw him a bone every now and then like they did with Grand Budapest if he does something that's both really good and comparatively mainstream, but I don't think they'll ever give him BP/BD. Same type deal with PTA. Did you see the original Nightmare Alley? It has a good story. True.........and the book has an even better one...........and a far better ending than the 1947 movie which is a fine movie but not on the same planet as the book...... .the book Nightmare Alley is one of the greatest things in the history of stuff......
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Post by Pavan on Jun 7, 2021 7:49:26 GMT
I'm going with Don't look up. Sounds low bro on the paper and i'm not a fan of McKay's heavy handed style but DiCaprio starring in it made me feel confident. He has been picky about his projects these days and he wouldn't waste his time with a McKay film unless it really excited him. There's the environment angle and The Academy could reward a mainstream film for a change to amp up their ratings.
DOR films play well with The Academy but i have a feeling Canterbury Glass will be totally shut out and he is going to get some unwanted press come awards season.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jun 7, 2021 19:18:30 GMT
I wasn't the first to notice this, but the Academy has gone for markedly shorter films for Best Picture ever since the preferential ballot has been adopted. I don't know if it's because (1) shorter films are generally more entertaining and therefore less divisive or (2) the attention span of the average Academy voter has gone down or (3) prestige films in general have become shorter or (4) a combination of one or more of the above, but the difference is glaring.
Average Best Picture winner length 12 years of the preferential ballot (2009-2020): 121 minutes 12 years prior to the preferential ballot (1997-2008): 140 minutes
Since the expansion and the adoption of the preferential ballot (2009-2020), the longest movie to have won Best Picture is 12 Years a Slave at 134 minutes. It's only a matter of time before we have a longer movie winning Best Picture, but I expect the winner this year to be somewhere between 108-134 minutes long.
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Post by quetee on Jun 7, 2021 20:43:36 GMT
I wasn't the first to notice this, but the Academy has gone for markedly shorter films for Best Picture ever since the preferential ballot has been adopted. I don't know if it's because (1) shorter films are generally more entertaining and therefore less divisive or (2) the attention span of the average Academy voter has gone down or (3) prestige films in general have become shorter or (4) a combination of one or more of the above, but the difference is glaring. Average Best Picture winner length12 years of the preferential ballot (2009-2020): 121 minutes 12 years prior to the preferential ballot (1997-2008): 140 minutes Since the expansion and the adoption of the preferential ballot (2009-2020), the longest movie to have won Best Picture is 12 Years a Slave at 134 minutes. It's only a matter of time before we have a longer movie winning Best Picture, but I expect the winner this year to be somewhere between 108-134 minutes long. Good observation. That's actually one of my poll ideas but I haven't done it yet.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jun 8, 2021 3:53:24 GMT
I wasn't the first to notice this, but the Academy has gone for markedly shorter films for Best Picture ever since the preferential ballot has been adopted. I don't know if it's because (1) shorter films are generally more entertaining and therefore less divisive or (2) the attention span of the average Academy voter has gone down or (3) prestige films in general have become shorter or (4) a combination of one or more of the above, but the difference is glaring. Average Best Picture winner length12 years of the preferential ballot (2009-2020): 121 minutes 12 years prior to the preferential ballot (1997-2008): 140 minutes Since the expansion and the adoption of the preferential ballot (2009-2020), the longest movie to have won Best Picture is 12 Years a Slave at 134 minutes. It's only a matter of time before we have a longer movie winning Best Picture, but I expect the winner this year to be somewhere between 108-134 minutes long. Interesting. I just hope I remember this later on in the year lol. I wasn't the first to notice this, but the Academy has gone for markedly shorter films for Best Picture ever since the preferential ballot has been adopted. I don't know if it's because (1) shorter films are generally more entertaining and therefore less divisive or (2) the attention span of the average Academy voter has gone down or (3) prestige films in general have become shorter or (4) a combination of one or more of the above, but the difference is glaring. Average Best Picture winner length12 years of the preferential ballot (2009-2020): 121 minutes 12 years prior to the preferential ballot (1997-2008): 140 minutes Since the expansion and the adoption of the preferential ballot (2009-2020), the longest movie to have won Best Picture is 12 Years a Slave at 134 minutes. It's only a matter of time before we have a longer movie winning Best Picture, but I expect the winner this year to be somewhere between 108-134 minutes long. Good observation. That's actually one of my poll ideas but I haven't done it yet. Looking forward to it.
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Post by stephen on Jun 8, 2021 16:34:26 GMT
Welp, so much for my Three Thousand Years of Longing support. But that's my call for 2022.
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Post by quetee on Jun 8, 2021 23:59:31 GMT
Welp, so much for my Three Thousand Years of Longing support. But that's my call for 2022. Ugh. I was looking forward to this one.
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rhodoraonline
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Post by rhodoraonline on Jun 10, 2021 5:39:05 GMT
Flipping between House of Gucci and Don't Look Up for now.
Is there a reason why In The Heights is not on the list?
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Post by quetee on Jun 10, 2021 16:11:34 GMT
Flipping between House of Gucci and Don't Look Up for now. Is there a reason why In The Heights is not on the list? It wasn't suggested in May's poll.
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rhodoraonline
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Post by rhodoraonline on Jun 10, 2021 23:02:23 GMT
So it would be on next month cuz I suggested it? )
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